Warner Bros brings some of their classic animated characters to the silver screen on March 14th when The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie opens. Marking the directorial debut of Pete Browngardt, the sci-fi comedic adventures features the voices of Eric Bauza as Daffy Duck and Porky Pig), Candi Milo, Peter MacNicol, Fred Tatasciore, Laraine Newman, and Wayne Knight.
Earth actually received a limited Los Angeles run in December to qualify for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars (it did not receive a nomination). The studio hasn’t done much work promoting its release. Despite solid word-of-mouth from the West Coast screenings, WB seems to be dumping this. I think anything over $5 million would be a surprise and lower single digits may be all, folks.
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
Steven Soderbergh unveils his second 2025 picture in weeks when Black Bag opens on March 14th. The spy thriller is led by Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender with Marisa Abela, Tom Burke, Naomie Harris, Regé-Jean Page, and Pierce Brosnan in support.
The Focus Features flick is generating impressive critical support with 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s some of the best recent reviews in the prolific director’s long career. Bag‘s buzz could mean this over performs. If this reaches $10 million, that would be quite an accomplishment. I don’t think it gets there, but it should certainly outpace the $3.3 million that Soderbergh’s January predecessor Presence earned out of the gate.
Black Bag opening weekend prediction: $7.3 million
Paramount hopes Novocaine shows some teeth at the box office when it opens wide on March 14th. Jack Quaid headlines as a bank exec with a condition where he feels no pain. This turns him into a reluctant superhero during a hostage situation. Amber Midthunder, Ray Nicholson, Jacob Batalon, Betty Gabriel, and Matt Walsh costar with Dan Berk and Robert Olsen directing.
Any hope of Deadpool size grosses can be easily forgotten as the marketing campaign isn’t too robust. With quiet buzz, the real question is whether this manages to top $10 million for its start. I suspect it may not despite a reported debut on 3200 screens.
Novocaine opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
Mickey 17, Bong Joon-ho’s follow=up to his Oscar juggernaut Parasite, looks to rule the charts this weekend and end the three-week reign of Captain America: Brave New World. We also have Rule Breakers from Angel Studios and you can peruse my prediction posts on the newcomers here:
With a forecast in the upper teens (which isn’t oh so fine), I’m not as optimistic as some others on Mickey 17. The sci-fi satire with Robert Pattinson should benefit from the Joon-ho goodwill, but I’m not convinced that equates to a gross north of $20 million.
As for Rule Breakers with Phoebe Waller-Bridge, lower to mid single digits could place it in fourth or fifth with third being the best case scenario if it exceeds my projection.
Captain America: Brave New World should slide to second with a low to mid 40s dip while Last Breath and The Monkey populate the remainder of the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Mickey 17
Predicted Gross: $17.9 million
2. Captain America: Brave New World
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
3. Last Breath
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
4. Rule Breakers
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
5. The Monkey
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (February 28-March 2)
It was a three-peat for the MCU’s Captain America: Brave New World with $14.8 million added to its coffers. That’s ahead of my $11.8 million guesstimate as the superhero tale has taken in $163 million with $200 million in its domestic sights (though it might fall a little short of that).
Survival thriller Last Breath starring Woody Harrelson and Simu Liu was runner-up with $7.8 million and that tops my glass half empty prediction of $4.8 million. That’s at the better end of its anticipated range.
The Monkey was third in its sophomore outing with $6.4 million, a tad ahead of my $5.7 million call. The horror comedy stands at $24 million after ten days.
Paddington in Peru was fourth with $4.5 million (I said $3.9 million) for $31 million overall after three weeks.
Dog Man rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I went with $3.7 million). The five-week tally is $84 million as it will try and reach $100 million stateside.
Rule Breakers is the latest inspirational drama from Angel Studios which casts Phoebe Waller-Bridge as a teacher guiding Afghan women. Bill Guttentag directs with Ali Fazal, Fahim Fazli, and Nikohl Boosheri among the costars.
Shot for a reported $8 million, Rule hopes to break into the consciousness of the faith-based audience that its studio caters to. That probably means an opening weekend in the lower to mid single digits. Angel’s last three efforts were Bonhoeffer (which started with $5.5 million), Homestead ($6 million), and Brave the Dark with just $2.3 million.
I think this should go higher than Dark while not reaching the debuts of the other two.
Rule Breakers opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
Bong Joon-ho’s follow-up to his 2019 Oscar juggernaut Parasite hits multiplexes via Mickey 17 on March 7th. Robert Pattinson plays multiple roles in the sci-fi satire which premiered at the Berlin Film Festival. Naomi Ackie, Steven Yeun, Toni Collette, and Mark Ruffalo costar.
Sporting the acclaimed auteur’s biggest budget, Mickey certainly arrives with higher expectations than he’s seen before. Most reviews are solid with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and 75 on Metacritic. That said, it probably won’t be the awards player that Parasite was save for some tech races.
Originally slated for theaters in March 2024, some estimates have Mickey in the $25 million region. I’m not convinced it will do that fine. Had it arrived just a couple of years after Joon-ho’s predecessor, I might be projecting more. I’ll say higher teens with low 20s as the best case scenario.
Mickey 17 opening weekend prediction: $17.9 million
In what should be a quiet box office weekend, survival thriller Last Breath with Woody Harrelson and Simu Liu hopes to find an audience while Captain America: Brave New World seeks to three-peat. You can find my detailed prediction post on Breath here:
Despite a troubling 68% sophomore plummet, Captain America should manage a third weekend atop the charts due to lack of competition. It may, however, not even reach low teens this time around.
The best case scenario for Breath would be second place, but it could place anywhere from runner-up to fifth depending on drops of holdovers.
The Monkey, with a C+ Cinemascore grade, is likely to experience a heftier decline over family fare offerings Paddington in Peru and Dog Man (though it could remain in second).
Here’s how I see the top five shaking out in a cinematic frame where audiences might be more transfixed by the Oscars:
1. Captain America: Brave New World
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
2. The Monkey
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
3. Last Breath
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
4. Paddington in Peru
Predicted Gross: $3.9 million
5. Dog Man
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
Box Office Predictions (February 21-23)
As mentioned, the MCU’s 35th feature Captain America: Brave New World cratered in its second outing with a near 70% fall. It made $28.1 million, in line with my $29.6 million call, for a $141 million ten-day overall take.
Horror comedy The Monkey performed toward the lower end of its expected range at $14 million. I was more generous at $18.2 million. Look for it to fade quickly like Companion did.
Holdovers generally went under my forecasts with Paddington in Peru third at $6.5 million compared to my $8.9 million estimate. The two-week total is an underwhelming $25 million.
Dog Man was fourth with $5.8 million, under my $7.1 million prediction for $78 million in its four weeks of release.
Ne Zha 2 rounded out the top five and I incorrectly didn’t have it listed. The Chinese animated fantsy took in $3 million to bring its two-week tally to $14 million.
Heart Eyes was sixth with a ginormous 73% dip to $2.7 million in its third weekend for $26 million in the bank.
Finally, The Unbreakable Boy with Zachary Levi was another snoozer for Lionsgate in 8th. It made $2.3 million and I projected it at $3 million.
Based on a true story and a 2019 documentary of the same name, Focus Features hopes audiences take in Last Breath this Friday. The survival thriller about a deep sea rescue comes from Alex Parkinson (who made the doc) with a cast including Woody Harrelson, Simu Liu, Finn Cole, and Cliff Curtis.
Audience anticipation seems to be considerably under the surface. I don’t think this even gets to $5 million. My meager estimate should still be enough for a number 3 debut since this should be a quiet weekend at the box office.
Last Breath opening weekend prediction: $4.8 million
The Monkey looks to swing a strong second place showing while The Unbreakable Boy hopes to break into the top five this weekend. Captain America: Brave New World should repeat in first. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
Based on a Stephen King short story, The Monkey marks Osgood Perkins’s follow-up to last summer’s surprise hit Longlegs. I have this opening shy of $20 million which would put it in firmly in second.
Father-son drama The Unbreakable Boy with Zachary Levi seems like it’s getting dumped by distributor Lionsgate and my $3 million estimate puts it outside of the high 5.
Captain America: Brave New World performed in line with expectations over the Valentine’s/Presidents Day long weekend (more on that below). It also received the worst Cinemascore (B-) of any MCU title thus far. That could mean a decline in the mid 60s or even 70% (similar to the drop for Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania) could be at hand.
Paddington in Peru and Dog Man should each dip a spot to 3rd and 4th with Heart Eyes rounding out the top five.
Here’s how I envision it playing out:
1. Captain America: Brave New World
Predicted Gross: $29.6 million
2. The Monkey
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million
3. Paddington in Peru
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million
4. Dog Man
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
5. Heart Eyes
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
Box Office Results (February 14-17)
Captain America: Brave New World was the 35th Marvel Cinematic Universe experience and it was the 35th to debut atop the charts. The Friday to Sunday traditional weekend gross was $89.8 million with $100 million when factoring in President’s Day. That’s not as commanding as plenty of other MCU fare, but it surpassed my respective $78.9 million and $90.7 million estimates. As mentioned, that troubling audience reaction should mean substantial drops ahead.
Paddington in Peru kicked off in second place with $12.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $16 million for the four-day compared to my projections of $14.8 million and $17 million. The film is making the bulk of its bounty overseas though it could experience smallish declines in upcoming frames (its Cinemascore was an A).
Dog Man was third with $13.4 million (I said $14.1 million) as the animated tale brought its three-week total to $70 million.
The biggest surprise of the weekend was horror comedy Heart Eyes actually increasing its gross in weekend #2 with $10.8 million for fourth position. My radar was way off as I only had it pegged at $5.8 million. The overall tally stands at $22 million.
Chinese animated fantasy Ne Zha 2 was fifth with $8.3 million and I did not do a projection for it. That towers over its 2019 predecessor which premiered to just over one million.
Finally, Mufasa: The Lion King was sixth with $5.3 million (I said $5 million) for $241 million in its nine weeks.
Zachary Levi headlines the true life father-son drama The Unbreakable Boy on February 21st. Jon Gunn, known for helming faith-based pics like The Case for Christ and last year’s Ordinary Angels, directs. The supporting cast includes Meghann Fahy, Jacob Laval, Drew Powell, Gavin Warren, and Patricia Heaton.
Boy has been sitting on the Lionsgate shelf for some time as it wrapped production in late 2020. That studio has had a slew of financial disappointments in recent months. While Ordinary Angels (also from Lionsgate) managed $6.5 million for its start, it had solid word-of-mouth and was released on 2800 screens. Early reports have Boy only rolling out in approximately 1300 venues. That should limit its potential as evidenced by my estimate.
The Unbreakable Boy opening weekend prediction: $3 million
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