Bob Odenkirk is back in fighting mode when Nobody 2 debuts August 15th. The action flick is the follow-up to 2021’s original which managed to do decent business considering its release in COVID times. Costars include Connie Nielsen, John Ortiz, RZA, Colin Hanks, Christopher Lloyd, Michael Ironside, Gage Munroe, Paisley Cadorath, and Sharon Stone. Timo Tjahjanto directs.
Released in March of 2021 when the pandemic was still presenting significant challenges to theaters, Nobody took in a better than anticipated $6.7 million and legged out to $27 million domestically. That was enough to warrant a sequel and expectations are higher.
I’ll say this could come close doubling what its predecessor made out of the gate nearly four and a half years ago. That means low double digits to possibly low teens.
Nobody 2 opening weekend prediction: $11.3 million
Freakier Friday looks to rule the whole weekend while critically lauded horror pic Weapons and family fantasy Sketch from Angel Studios also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio of newcomers here:
Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan reprise their roles from the 2003 body swap remake Freaky Friday in Freakier Friday. An absence of female driven material over the summer and goodwill towards the predecessor should mean an #1 premiere and I’m projecting low 30s (barring a feasible Weapons over performance).
Weapons should be in line for a runner-up start with encouraging word-of-mouth and effective trailers. High 20s or possible more seems achievable.
As for Sketch, it’s getting solid initial reviews. However, distributor Angel has stalled with their output lately. While I think it could have the capacity to surprise, my $3.9 million estimate from Friday to Sunday and $5.8 million prediction when counting its Wednesday and Thursday numbers would put it outside of the top five (likely in 8th).
Let’s talk holdovers. The Fantastic Four: First Steps fell considerably more than I assumed in its sophomore frame (more on that below). For the third go-round, a 50-52% drop is probably what we’ll see. The dips shouldn’t be as pronounced for The Bad Guys 2 or The Naked Gun in their second weekends. I’ll say mid to high 30s for the former and 40% for the latter.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 shaking out:
1. Freakier Friday
Predicted Gross: $32.5 million
2. Weapons
Predicted Gross: $28.8 million
3. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
4. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
5. The Naked Gun
Predicted Gross: $10 million
Box Office Results (August 1-3)
I wrongly thought The Fantastic Four: First Steps would experience a low 50s decline similar to Superman from a couple weeks back. Yet Marvel’s 37th feature tumbled 67% to $38.6 million compared to my far more generous $50.6 million take. The studio can’t love that though it should level off this coming weekend to around 50% (similar to what Thor: Love and Thunder dropped after its high 60s fall).
Two high-profile newbies couldn’t match my projections. DreamWorks Animation’s sequel The Bad Guys 2 was second with $21.9 million. That’s a bit under what its 2022 predecessor managed and I thought it would do a bit over at $28.1 million.
The Naked Gun reboot with Liam Neeson had critics on its side, but still opened on the lower end of its expected range at $16.8 million in third. I had it pegged at $22.3 million. Paramount is hoping for decent legs throughout August.
Superman was fourth with $13.7 million (I said $13.5 million) as the DC reboot has amassed $316 million after four weeks.
Jurassic World Rebirth rounded out the top five with $8.7 million, a tad ahead of my $7.6 million call. After five weeks, it is roaring with $317 million.
Finally, body horror tale Together with Dave Franco and Alison Brie was sixth with $6.7 million from Friday to Sunday and $10.8 million since its Wednesday bow. That’s on pace with my respective predictions of $7 million and $10.2 million.
Angel Studios flies out of their comfort zone and hope to draw up surprising box office numbers for Sketch when it opens on Wednesday, August 6th. Marking the directorial debut of Seth Worley, the family friendly fantasy stars Tony Hale, D’Arcy Carden, Bianca Belle, Kue Lawrence, and Kalon Cox.
Centered around a kids book come to life, Sketch was initially screened at last year’s Toronto Film Festival. Distribution rights were unexpectedly snatched up by Angel, best known for Sound of Freedom and various faith-based features. Reviews stand at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 76 on Metacritic.
I would be more confident that Angel had another sleeper on their hands if not for their more recent track history. In the past couple of years, the studio’s filmography has yielded mostly low to mid single digit starts. Perhaps children and their parents will show up in bigger numbers that I’m envisioning. Mid single digits from Friday to Sunday with a couple million more when counting Wednesday and Thursday is my hunch.
Sketch opening weekend prediction: $3.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $5.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
After receiving critical kudos and impressive box office numbers for his solo directorial debut Barbarian in 2022, Zach Cregger’s follow-up Weapons is unloaded on August 8th. The horror mystery about a group of kids vanishing into the night stars Josh Brolin and Julia Garner (currently surfing multiplexes in The Fantastic Four: First Steps). Supporting players include Cary Christopher, Alden Ehrenreich, Austin Abrams, Benedict Wong, and Amy Madigan.
Effective trailers, appreciation for Barbarian, and early reviews (100% on RT currently) have caused genre fans to circle Weapons on their viewing calendar. While Cregger’s first scary movie started off with $10 million, his second is expected to double that figure and then some. Some estimates even have this getting to $30M+. I’ll be a bit more conservative and go high 20s.
Arriving 22 years after the critically acclaimed remake of the 1976 Disney body swap comedy with Jodie Foster is Freakier Friday on August 8th. Nisha Ganatra takes over the directorial reins from Mark Waters with Jamie Lee Curtis and Lindsay Lohan returning to headline. Other returnees from 2003 include Mark Harmon, Chad Michael Murray, Rosalind Chao, and Ryan Malgarini plus newbies Julia Butters, Sophia Hammons, and Manny Jacinto joining.
With the source material originating from a 1972 kids novel, Curtis/Lohan’s take received stronger reviews than the original cinematic version. Curtis was even nominated for Best Actress in a Musical/Comedy at the Golden Globes. The box office was equally impressive with a $22 million premiere and $110 million overall domestically. Adjusted for inflation, that debut would be close to $40 million today.
Freakier has a number of pluses going for it. There’s a nostalgia factor, the narrative of a Lohan comeback, and a dearth of female driven material this summer. Then there’s the Mouse House marketing. All of that combined could get this mean low 30s and maybe even higher.
Freakier Friday opening weekend prediction: $32.5 million
While The Fantastic Four: First Steps looks to ride a wave of solid buzz to a second weekend atop the charts, three new releases will jockey for position. We have animated sequel The Bad Guys 2, comedy franchise reboot The Naked Gun, and the Dave Franco/Alison Brie body horror experience Together premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Unless The Bad Guys 2 significantly underperforms or The Naked Gun really fires on all cylinders, it should manage a runner-up debut. I’m projecting high 20s which would improve on its 2022 predecessor’s mid-twenties rollout.
The Naked Gun is the biggest question mark of the weekend. While nostalgia could propel it to better than anticipated numbers, series unfamiliarity among younger patrons could hinder it. The range is wide as I see the floor in the teens with breakout potential putting it in second place. My lower 20s compromise means a commendable third place.
Together is at 99% on Rotten Tomatoes, but horror fans have had plenty to feast on recently. My higher single digits estimate (and low double digits when factoring in its Wednesday bow) might put it in a face-off for fifth with the fifth weekend of Jurassic World Rebirth.
As mentioned, The Fantastic Four: First Steps should have no trouble staying in 1st. A mid to high 50s decline would be a bit more than the 53% experienced by Superman. Speaking of Supes, a fourth weekend decline close to 50% should mean fourth place.
Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:
1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $50.6 million
2. The Bad Guys 2
Predicted Gross: $28.1 million
3. The Naked Gun
Predicted Gross: $22.3 million
4. Superman
Predicted Gross: $13.5 million
5. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
5. Together
Predicted Gross: $7 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (July 25-27)
MCU’s 37th feature yielded its 37th #1 in a row as The Fantastic Four: First Steps made $117.6 million. It came close to Superman‘s start, falling short by just over $7 million. The critically appreciated reboot also couldn’t match my $122.4 million prediction. This is still a nice start while not getting to the rosiest of projections.
Superman dropped to second with $24.8 million, flying under my $28 million call. DC’s reboot (that word is popular with this summer’s crop) is nearing $300 million with $289 million in its coffers after three weeks.
Jurassic World Rebirth did cross that threshold with $13.2 million more in weekend #4, in line with my $13.6 million projection. The tally is $301 million.
Other holdovers were in close range with my guesstimates. F1 was fourth with $6.3 million (I said $6.7 million) for five-week earnings of $165 million.
Smurfs rounded out the top five with $5.4 million (I went with $5.5 million). The animated, yes, reboot has brought in a sleepy $22 million in two weeks.
I Know What You Did Last Summer was sixth with $5.2 million (I said $5.3 million) for $23 million in its ten days of release.
Real-life spouses Dave Franco and Alison Brie are fictional spouses growing a little too close for comfort in the body horror tale Together, out July 30th. It marks the directorial debut of Michael Shanks (who also scripts) and the Neon distributed release generated significant buzz after its Sundance bow.
Together currently has bragging rights with a rare 100% Rotten Tomatoes score and that’s helpful for the TV spots. Metacritic is at 76. Neon hopes this brings in genre audiences like their unexpected hit Longlegs did last summer. That critically appreciated pic surprised prognosticators with a $22 million start.
I don’t anticipate Together will see that kind of premiere. I do anticipate it will outdo the $5.3 million opening of Neon offering Immaculate last spring. Since it kicks off on a Wednesday, I’ll say a higher single digits bow over the traditional weekend with around $10 million for the five-day is the call.
Together opening weekend prediction: $7 million (Friday to Sunday); $10.2 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Animated creature caper high jinks continue when The Bad Guys 2 opens August 1st. The follow-up to the 2022 original finds Pierre Perifel back in directorial control with returning voice work from Sam Rockwell, Marc Maron, Craig Robinson, Anthony Ramos, Awkwafina, Zazie Beetz, Richard Ayoade, Lilly Singh, and Alex Borstein. Newcomers to the mix are Danielle Brooks, Maria Bakalova, and Natasha Lyonne.
Based on Aaron Blabey’s series of children’s books, part one exceeded expectations over three years ago with a $24 million premiere and $97 million overall domestic total. With plenty of time for kiddos to stream the predecessor, it stands to reason that the Universal release could build upon that gross. I think it’ll do so in the high 20s range.
The Bad Guys 2 opening weekend prediction: $28.1 million
After three decades plus of dormancy, a comedy franchise gets its reboot on August 1st via The Naked Gun. The legacy sequel casts Liam Neeson as Lt. Frank Drebin Jr. (son of Leslie Nielsen’s bumbling lawman) with Akiva Schaffer directing. Costars include Pamela Anderson, Paul Walter Hauser, Kevin Durand, Danny Huston, and Liza Koshy.
With Seth MacFarlane producing, Gun has been in development for over a decade. 1988’s original from the Zucker/Abrahams/Zucker team (based on the short-lived but acclaimed Police Squad! TV series) is considered a genre classic. Further installments in 1991 and 1994 didn’t quite hit the funny bone bullseye, but managed to perform well at the box office.
Younger viewers may not have much familiarity with the series. Others could reject Mr. Neeson outside of his action thriller comfort zone. However, an effective trailer should help and advance word-of-mouth is encouraging. Comedies have struggled in recent years at multiplexes with many going the streaming route instead. Anything above $25 million would be an accomplishment. I’ll say low to mid 20s is more doable and that’s still a win for Paramount.
The Naked Gun opening weekend prediction: $22.3 million
Superheroes will continue to rule the summer box office charts with Marvel’s The Fantastic Four: First Steps taking the top spot from DC’s Superman. The MCU reboot is the sole wide release newcomer this weekend and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
Estimates are a bit all over the map for Steps. The general consensus is that it will top $100 million. Some projections have it eclipsing the $125 million that Superman accomplished just two frames ago. I have it coming in a tad lower, but think it has a better shot at over-indexing than under.
The comic book competition could mean another low 50s decline for the Man of Steel in its third outing with Jurassic World Rebirth sliding from second to third.
Slots 4-6 could be interesting as I Know What You Did Last Summer should suffer a heftier plummet than Smurfs or F1.
Here’s how I see 1-6 shaking out:
1. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Predicted Gross: $122.4 million
2. Superman
Predicted Gross: $28 million
3. Jurassic World Rebirth
Predicted Gross: $13.6 million
4. F1
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. Smurfs
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
6. I Know What You Did Last Summer
Predicted Gross: $5.3 million
Box Office Results (July 18-20)
Superman from DC Studios continued to fly high at #1 for the second week in a row with $58.4 million, slightly exceeding my $56.2 million call. James Gunn’s franchise restart has amassed $236 million after ten days.
Jurassic World Rebirth was second with $23.7 million, ahead of my $19.1 million call. The dino pic is up to $276 million following three weeks of play.
While I Know What You Did Last Summer was the biggest grossing newbie, the long gestating horror sequel came in the lower end of its range with $12.7 million in third. That’s under my $17.7 million forecast as viewers weren’t hooked by the return of the late 90s series.
Same goes for Smurfs which flopped in fourth with $11 million compared to my $12.4 million guesstimate. The animated tale with voice work from Rihanna couldn’t find its intended family audience.
F1 rounded out the top five by easing only 24% with $9.8 million, zooming past my $7.5 million take. The four-week total is $153 million.
Finally, Ari Aster’s COVID Western Eddington with Joaquin Phoenix and the ubiquitous Pedro Pascal was seventh with a weak $4.2 million (though it did manage to outdo my $3.4 million prediction).
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