Continuing with my final Oscar predictions this week for the ceremony that airs this Sunday, we move onto Best Supporting Actor.
While the Supporting Actress category seems about a 99.9% probability to go to Anne Hathaway, this race is much more competitive. Just to give you an idea, the precursor awards have been all over the map. The big city critics group even honored two actors that aren’t nominated here. The New York Association bestowed their award to Matthew McConaughey for Magic Mike and Bernie, while the L.A. critics named Dwight Henry for Beasts of the Southern Wild. Also, the National Board of Review honored another actor not nominated here, Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained.
As for the people actually nominated, both the Golden Globes and the BAFTA’s honored Christoph Waltz for Django. The Critics Choice Awards named Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master. The SAG award went to Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln. The other two nominees, Alan Arkin for Argo and Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook, have picked up no major precursors.
You don’t say this often about a major category, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked to hear any of the five nominees have their name called. Of all the six big races, this seems most likely for an “upset”. Major momentum for Argo or Silver Linings could sway the vote to Arkin or De Niro. That “upset” possibility seems most likely for Mr. De Niro.
I would actually be most surprised to hear Hoffman’s name called, but it’s not out of the question. Waltz is a very real contender, but the fact that he won just three years ago for Inglourious Basterds could hurt his chances.
That leaves us with Tommy Lee Jones. He’s received some of the best reviews of his career in his long and illustrious career for Lincoln. It’s been 19 years since he won for The Fugitive.
As I said, this is a difficult race to make a final call on. I’m going with Tommy Lee, though, for the win.
We move today to the six major categories for the Academy Awards, airing next Sunday.
In the Best Supporting Actress category, this race was basically over before it started. Anne Hathaway’s performance as Fantine in Les Miserables was seen as the likely choice for the win. That never changed at all. Those with knowledge of the play knew that this was a meaty role. Couple this with the fact that Hathaway is a popular Hollywood starlet who’s given fine performances in The Devil Wears Prada and Love and Other Drugs only helped. Also, she gave a well-received performance in last summer’s blockbuster The Dark Knight Rises. 2012 was a watershed year for Hathaway.
The Oscar precursors have been very kind. Hathaway has picked up the Golden Globe, the SAG award, the BAFTA, and the Critics Choice Award. Of all the six major categories, this one (and another we’ll get to soon) seem the easiest to pick. Simply put, it would be a major shock if Hathaway doesn’t take home the gold statue.
As for the other nominees, Sally Field’s work as Mary Todd Lincoln in Lincoln seems to be the other performance with a small (quite small) chance of an upset. Field is a well-respected actress who’s won two previous Oscars in the leading Actress category. She did pick up the New York Critics award.
The other three nominees should consider the nomination their victory. Amy Adams did win the L.A. Film Critics Award for The Master, but she’s got no real chance. The other nominees are Helen Hunt in The Sessions and Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook.
The Best Supporting Actress award will go to Ms. Hathaway and I’m supremely confident in the pick.
Prediction: Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
My FINAL Oscar Winner Predictions posts will continue with Best Supporting Actor.
The long President’s Day weekend isn’t quite over and you’ve still got those Martin Van Buren cookies to bake, but the studios have come in with their estimates for the box office. So here we go:
With Valentine’s Day falling on Thursday, three news titles opened that day, with the animated Escape from Planet Earth bowing on Friday. As expected, A Good Day to Die Hard has opened at #1, though not as strong as many (including I) predicted. The fifth John McClane entry, which earned easily the worst reviews of the franchise, is estimated to gross $36.9 million over the five day span. This is below my $45.6M prediction. While critics were harsh, the picture’s CinemaScore grade was a decent B+, indicating audiences weren’t too bothered by it. Still, hefty drop-offs in future weekends seem likely.
Perfectly timed for Valentine’s Day, Safe Haven had a very strong debut with an estimated $33.3 million five day performance, edging out my $32.3M projection. I’ll take credit for my prediction on this one, though. After I posted my guesses on Wednesday, I noticed on Thursday that several other box office gurus had it going quite a bit lower. The combination of this being based on a Nicholas Sparks novel and Valentine’s Day seemed too good a combo not to reach big box office numbers. Having said that, don’t be surprised if it drops big next weekend.
While I’m proud of my Safe Haven number, I continue to underestimate Melissa McCarthy’s Identity Thief, which held up considerably better than I figured in its second weekend. The comedy looks poised to make $30.5 million over the five days, well higher than my $20.3M prediction.
For the weekend’s other two releases, I gave one too much credit and not enough to the other. Beautiful Creatures earned mixed reviews and was going after the Twilight crowd. It didn’t reach them. The picture bombed with an estimated $11.5 million over the five days, well below what I considered a meager $19.4M projection. Clearly, the advertising didn’t connect with audiences and the crowded marketplace didn’t help.
That crowded marketplace, however, does not include much for children to go see. And that fact helped propel the animated Escape From Planet Earth to a solid $21.1 million estimate, well above my $14.2M prediction.
Be sure to check back into my box office world this Wednesday as I predict next weekend, when the horror flick Dark Skies and the action thriller Snitch with The Rock open against the second weekends of Die Hard and Safe Haven. I’ll also probably be more generous to Identity Thief as it enters weekend #3. Stay tuned!
With the Seth MacFarlane hosted Academy Awards set to air one week from today, it’s time to delve into my predictions for what will win in every category. Well, almost every category. I will not pretend to know what might be victorious in the “non-feature” races like documentary feature and short subject and animated and live-action short film. Everything else is on the table for predictions.
For your reading purposes, here’s the schedule of my predictions for winners:
Today: All Categories Outside the “Big Six” Races
Monday: Best Supporting Actress
Tuesday: Best Supporting Actor
Wednesday: Best Actress
Thursday: Best Actor
Friday: Best Director
Saturday: Best Picture
This should leave you just enough time to blame me if you go by my predictions in your office Oscar pool. So let’s get started. In each race, I’ll list the nominees and reveal my pick to win. And away we go:
Best Foreign Language Film
Amour (Austria)
Kon-Tiki (Norway)
No (Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)
War Witch (Canada)
Prediction: Amour. The foreign film category can be tricky to predict in some years, but 2012 appears to be an exception. Michael Haneke’s Amour is also nominated for Best Picture and the director was nominated as well. This all points to a very high probability that Amour wins in this race.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Prediction: Argo. All five selections are also nominated for Best Picture as well. This one appears to be a race between Argo and Lincoln, with Silver Linings as a dark horse. Argo seems to be gaining momentum at the right time, so I’m going with screenwriter Chris Terrio picking up the statue, though if Lincoln has a good night, who knows?
Best Original Screenplay
Amour
Django Unchained
Flight
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
Prediction: Django Unchained. This category is looking like a repeat of 2009, when Mark Boal won the award for Kathryn Bigelow’s The Hurt Locker over Quentin Tarantino’s Inglourious Basterds. In 2012, I look for that to be reversed. Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty seems to have lost momentum (especially with Bigelow’s directing snub) and Boal will likely find himself losing to Mr. Tarantino. If there’s any dark horse, it’s Moonrise Kingdom, but this appears to be a two film race.
Best Animated Feature Film
Brave
FrankenWeenie
ParaNorman
The Pirates! Band of Misfits
Wreck-It Ralph
Prediction: Wreck-It Ralph. In a solid year for animated features, this looks to be a race between Ralph and Brave. Even though Pixar usually cleans up in this category, Brave was not met with the major acclaim afforded to titles like The Incredibles, Wall-E, and Up. I will go with Wreck-It Ralph for the win, even though a Brave victory would not be a big surprise.
Best Cinematography
Anna Karenina
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Prediction: Life of Pi. Ang Lee’s picture is a marvelous technical achievement on all levels and I expect Claudio Miranda will be honored here. A Lincoln win is not out of the question, but Pi should be the front runner.
Best Costume Design
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Mirror Mirror
Snow White and the Huntsman
Prediction: Anna Karenina. This is the kind of lush period piece that seems suited to win this category. Les Mis is certainly a contender and a big night for Lincoln could mean a victory here, but Keira Knightley + corsets should = win.
Best Film Editing
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty
Prediction: Argo. This is actually a really tough one. Lincoln could take the prize. So could Life of Pi. This also seems to be the one category that Zero Dark has a legit shot at. In the end, I think the Argo-mentum gives it the edge. Not a whole lot of confidence here though.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Hitchock
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Prediction: The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. The makeup work for Hitchcock was actually met with a fairly tepid response, so this appears to be a two film race. I’ll give the edge to the Hobbit team.
Best Original Score
Anna Karenina
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Prediction: Life of Pi. Here’s another one that could go to multiple nominees – I see Argo, Pi, and Lincoln as contenders. I’ll go with Mychael Danna’s work in the Ang Lee film, but don’t be surprised to see either of the others pick it up.
Best Original Song
“Before My Time” from Chasing Ice
“Everybody Needs a Best Friend” from Ted
“Pi’s Lullaby” from Life of Pi
“Skyfall” from Skyfall
“Suddenly” from Les Miserables
Prediction: “Skyfall” from Skyfall. A few months ago, you might have figured an original tune from Les Mis would be the obvious choice. That was until Adele’s terrific Bond theme came out. I’ll pick the British superstar for the victory with a high degree of confidence.
Best Production Design
Anna Karenina
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Prediction: Anna Karenina. This is another tough call. Formerly called the Best Art Direction category, this race favors period pieces. Les Mis has a real shot here, as does Lincoln. Still, Karenina is in the mix and I’ll go with it winning this and Costume Design. Not a lot of confidence here.
Best Sound Editing
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Zero Dark Thirty
Prediction: Skyfall. Yet another very difficult choice! This could easily go three ways: Bond, Zero Dark, or Life of Pi. I’ll say the 007 team gets rewarded here, but picking any of the three I named makes perfect sense.
Best Sound Mixing
Argo
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Skyfall
Prediction: Skyfall. Ugh, another tough one. I’m thinking they have to honor Les Mis with something in the technical categories, right? Still, 007 poses a very real threat here. I’m truly 50/50 on this. Maybe I’ve got too much Bond on the brain lately, but I’m sticking with 007.
Best Visual Effects
The Avengers
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Life of Pi
Prometheus
Snow White and the Huntsman
Prediction: Life of Pi. The amazing Pi visuals make this an obvious choice. The Hobbit has a small chance to spoil, but I would pick this category with no reservations.
And there you have it… my take on all the “other races”. We’ll get to the majors tomorrow with Best Supporting Actress. Stay tuned!
**Blogger’s note: updated as of 10/09/21 with No Time to Die
After watching all 24 official James Bond pictures and writing blog posts on each averaging around 1,000 words, we’ve arrived at what may be my final 007 Files entry for a while.
I may find something Bond related to blog about, but the next major post will likely be when the fourth Daniel Craig film is released, probably in late 2014. There will be one likely exception. When I see the well-known “unofficial” Bond picture, 1983’s Never Say Never Again with Sean Connery, I’ll post about that. Until then, I’ve now compiled my list ranking all movies from the worst to the very best.
For those reading along, #23 may be a good number for basketball players, but it isn’t here. That number signifies my least favorite Bond film and we work up from there. You’ll forgive me if I don’t comment on the rankings (been there, done that), but I am providing a link to the original post on the films, along with the trailer.
And with that, my final rankings after a month and a half blogging Bond:
And there you have it, my friends! Feel free to let your feelings be known as to your thoughts on the list. It’s been a great experience re-watching all these 007 pictures. Late 2014 can’t get here soon enough!
We are almost at the Ultimate Rankings of all 23 James Bond films now that I’ve viewed them all over the past month and a half. Before that, though, I’ve ranked my Top 7 Theme Songs and Bond girls, so it’s time for the (00) 7 Best James Bond Villains. This was tough and I’ll throw out there already that Sophie Marceau as Elektra King in The World Is Not Enough and Harold Sakata as the series most famous henchman Odd Job nearly made the cut. There could only be seven though and here they are.
7. Max Zorin (Christopher Walken) in A View to a Kill
OK, the movie is pretty mediocre, but Christopher Walken’s performance as psychotic industrialist Max Zorin is easily the film’s high point. The great actor genuinely seems to be soaking up and enjoying playing a 007 baddie.
6. Franz Sanchez (Robert Davi) in Licence to Kill
Timothy Dalton’s second Bond entry is by far one of the most underrated of the franchise and Robert Davi’s terrific performance as drug lord Sanchez is a big part of the film’s success. He gets more screen time than your typical villain and he makes the most of it.
5. Ernst Stavro Blofeld (various actors)
Some Bond fanatics would consider it sacrilege not to list Bond’s most well-known nemesis Blofeld as #1. Honesty has to prevail though. Blofeld’s history for me is checkered. He appeared prominently in three Bonds with Donald Pleasance playing him in You Only Live Twice, Telly Savalas in On Her Majesty’s Secret Service, and Charles Gray in Diamonds Are Forever. He was seen barking orders without his face shown in From Russia with Love, Thunderball, and was finally killed in For Your Eyes Only in the opening scene. However, appearing in six movies doesn’t make you the greatest Bond villain. I preferred Pleasance’s take on Blofeld more than any other. By Diamonds Are Forever, even though Gray’s performance was decent, the character was written poorly. Still, Blofeld earns a spot on here.
4. Red Grant (Robert Shaw) in From Russia with Love
Odd Job may be considered the best henchman, but my personal favorite is definitely Robert Shaw’s fantastic performance as Red Grant in the second 007 adventure. He proves to be one of the more worthy Bond adversaries and their scenes on the long train sequence in the film are classic.
3. Rosa Klebb (Lotte Lenya) in From Russia with Love
And while we’re talking From Russia with Love, the film’s main villain is wonderful. Lenya’s performance as ex Soviet agent turned SPECTRE baddie Rosa Klebb is one of a kind. She looks nothing like what you think a Bond villain and that’s part of her appeal.
2. Auric Goldfinger (Gert Frobe) in Goldfinger
He’s long been considered the classic and best Bond villain and there’s a reason for it. Goldfinger is one of the most colorful and fun antagonists to Mr. Bond and he’s given some classic bits, including trying to cut 007 in half with a giant frickin laser. And he gets that wonderful line: “No, Mr. Bond! I expect you to die!” that is probably the most famous scene ever in the series.
1. Raoul Silva (Javier Bardem) in Skyfall
And Goldfinger would’ve been first, if not for a little picture called Skyfall last year. Bardem’s performance as the ex-agent turned bad guy who has plans to kill M is amazing. The character is well-written and given a number of memorable moments. Mostly though, we have a true example of the best Bond villain being the best actor to ever play one.
The billion dollar Bond. Skyfall marks 007’s 50th anniversary in existence on the big screen and I think you can say things turned out pretty well. The picture is the first in the series to earn over one billion dollars worldwide. It’s the first entry that garnered serious talk as to whether it would receive a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars. It did not.
Nevertheless, from a financial standpoint, Skyfall has put the series in uncharted territory and helped solidify Daniel Craig as a 007 for the ages. So, how is the movie??
Well, it begins with one of the greatest opening sequences in the series: a rousing, go-for-broke action set piece with 007 engaging in a chase in a car, on a motorcycle, and on a train. He is assisted by Eve (Naomie Harris), a fellow agent. The 13 minute opener concludes with M (Judi Dench) ordering Eve to take a difficult shot as Bond battles a baddie atop the train. It doesn’t end well. Bond is shot and plummets to the water, presumed dead.
We move on to the title credits and one of the best Bond theme songs (I ranked it #4). The marriage of a Bond theme and British singer Adele sounded like a natural fit when it was announced. It is. My apologies, with the recent “newness” of the film, there is no high quality version of the actual title credits I could find. Here is the official music video:
After Bond’s plunge off the train, M is forced to write his obituary and the agent is left on his own on an island with a female companion and a lot of alcohol. Meanwhile, all hell is breaking loose in London. An unseen villain has stolen a list of every NATO agent embedded in terrorist organizations and threatening to post the information publicly. M is getting blamed for the latest mishaps by the British government and is told her “voluntary retirement” will come soon by Mallory (Ralph Fiennes), an operative in the intelligence services. Matters take an even more awful turn for the worse when MI6 headquarters in bombed.
This all leads to 007 coming back to help, but he’s told he must first be cleared for active duty. The wounded Bond actually fails all his tests, both the physical and psychological portions. M clears him anyway. She trusts him. The psych evaluation is of particular interest, since one word (Skyfall) seems to set Bond on edge.
Once he is cleared, 007 is sent to meet with the new Quartermaster… yes, a new “Q”, played by the young Ben Whishaw. His first scene with Bond provides some humor, just as Desmond Llewelyn’s interplay with Connery, Lazenby, Moore, Dalton, and Brosnan usually did. The Bond/Q meeting sheds some light on the new reality of 007’s world. There’s really no fancy gadgets anymore. Just the essentials. He gets a gun that only he can fire and a radio.
Bond follows the train suspect who stole that important covert list to Shanghai. This leads to a very cool fight scene at a high rise. The lighting in the scene is of particular coolness.
We move on to Macau as 007 keeps following leads to get to the shadowy main villain. Here, we have a memorable casino sequence. Again, I reiterate that it should be required for every picture in the series to have a casino scene. Mission accomplished here! Bond meets Severine (Berenice Marlohe), who’s working for the main villain. 007 figures out that she was sold into a child slavery ring at an early age and wants to break out of her horrible existence. She agrees to help him if he promises to kill the unknown head bad guy. Severine’s character is a good one and I actually thought she was given too little screen time. The casino sequence ends with more terrific action, as Bond fights some henchman in a pit that happens to have a komodo dragon in it.
Severine does lead 007 to who he (and we as an audience) have been looking for. Turns out our villain is Silva (Javier Bardem), an ex-agent who’s behind all the mayhem. Silva was left for dead in a mission years ago by M and he has plans to repay her. Bond meets Silva at a deserted island that the villain has commandeered. Their initial meeting is a wonderful scene. It takes just this sequence together for us, as an audience, to know that Silva is one unique villain. And also one of the finest villains in the Bond franchise.
Like in the first picture, 1962’s Dr. No, the introduction of Silva comes nearly halfway through the proceedings, at the 70 minute mark. Unlike Dr. No, where the villain didn’t have much time to make an impression, it is far different with Silva. First off, Oscar winner Javier Bardem is just an amazing actor. Silva embodies the finest qualities of a great Bond villain: you believe he can go toe-to-toe with Bond and his schemes are slightly exaggerated and crazy. Bardem’s Silva is in the grand tradition of Goldfinger, Blofeld, and others. Whereas neither villain in Craig’s first two entries was of particular note, Silva is a classic character and Bardem’s performance is astonishing. Silva is captured (it turns out he wanted it to happen) and he reveals to M what the cyanide capsule he bit into when she left him hanging out to dry did to him. Creepy stuff, my friends.
Of course, Silva escapes and this leads to Bond’s most personal mission yet: protecting M. The two are on the run together and we end up at 007’s childhood home… a mansion in Scotland called Skyfall. We’ve always known Bond was an orphan, but we certainly hear more details on his life than ever before. We meet the gatekeeper at the home, played by Albert Finney (who is always good). And we experience a final battle between Bond and Silva at the estate that has major consequences on the future of the series.
Judi Dench is making her seventh appearance as M. This includes the four Brosnans and the three Craigs. It is with the Daniel Craig movies that her character became even more integral to the stories. Her relationship with Bond has been a focal point. The rapport of Craig and Dench is magnificent. For their characters, it isn’t just a boss/employee dynamic. She recruited him. She trusts his judgment. And he trusts her. Bond could have ended up like Silva, but his love of country, duty, and (yes) M prevented that. The unique dynamic between these two characters reaches its crescendo in Skyfall. There are tragic results and yet it feels right.
Being that it’s Bond 50th anniversary, we do get some nice nods to past features. Most notably, we see the beloved Aston Martin yet again. Bond at one point utters the line “I must be dreaming”, a nod to the famous introduction of Pussy Galore in Goldfinger.
However, in many ways, Skyfall is a unique and different Bond film. It has the distinction of being the first entry directed by an Oscar winner, Sam Mendes (winner for American Beauty, he also directed Road to Perdition and Jarhead). Veterans screewriters Neal Purvis and Robert Wade are joined by John Logan, screenwriter of Gladiator. The action scenes are at a high level… we see that $200 million dollars on screen.
Yet Skyfall sometimes feels like a smaller film, interestingly enough. There is more concentration on the Bond-M relationship than ever before. The extended climax at Bond’s boyhood home is free of any fancy gadgets… it’s just 007 fighting the villains with an old rifle and things he found around the house.
There are other sequences where I felt the influence of a current popular director, Christopher Nolan. Thomas Newman’s score sounds occasionally derivative of Nolan’s Dark Knight series. A scene where M is testifying in a hearing with her voice over reading a poem as Silva and his henchman wreak havoc seems like something straight out of Nolan. I know some Bond fanatics may not like reading this, but Nolan’s influence here is undeniable in my view. That’s not necessarily a bad thing either, but some of it feels like it doesn’t belong in a Bond movie.
By the end of Skyfall, we see that the series is moving in a new direction. SPOILER ALERT: M dies, Mallory becomes the new M, and it turns out fellow agent Eve’s last name is Moneypenny.
We have all grown to appreciate just how wonderful Daniel Craig is as Bond. It’s hard to believe now that his casting was originally met with skepticism and derision. Bardem is one of the greatest Bond villains ever. Dench is fabulous in her final appearance.
I do have some minor quibbles, as usual. The finale at Skyfall does feel strangely anticlimactic at times and goes on too long. Even though Eve is apparently the main Bond girl here, her character doesn’t make much of an impression and the other girl, Severine, is a good character not given enough time to shine.
None of this hides the fact that Skyfall delivers on the promise that Casino Royale set up for future Daniel Craig pictures in a way that Quantum of Solace did not. However, it is not quite the masterpiece that Casino Royale was. It’s a near masterpiece. And that puts it in a small company of other Bond entries, near the top of the list of 23 007 pictures in the first half century of the franchise.
Here are the facts:
Film: Skyfall
U.S. Release Date: November 9, 2012
Director: Sam Mendes
Screenplay: John Logan, Neal Purvis, and Robert Wade
Bond: Daniel Craig
Main Bond Villain: Raoul Silva (Javier Bardem)
Main Bond Girl: Eve (Naomie Harris)
Theme Song: “Skyfall” – performed by Adele
Budget: $200 million
Worldwide Box Office: $1.1 billion
My James Bond blog series will return with The 007 Files: Spectre
After the big holiday season complete with blockbusters (Skyfall, The Hobbit) and high grossing awards favorites (Lincoln, Django, Silver Linings Playbook), what usually follows is a dull January and early February.
2013 was no exception. There was one big hit (Mama), some medium-size performers (Hansel&Gretel, Texas Chainsaw 3D), and some big ol’ bombs (The Last Stand, Bullet to the Head, Movie 43, Parker).
Last weekend saw Melissa McCarthy’s first headlining comedy Identity Thief break out in a major way with a $34.5 million opening, surpassing pretty much everyone’s expectations, including mine.
This weekend, the box office landscape changes with four major releases competing with Thief‘s second frame. Added to the dynamic: Valentine Day’s falls on Thursday, so all newbies are opening then. Furthermore, it’s President’s Day weekend (where a lot of potential moviegoers have Monday off). Therefore, instead of the normal three days, my box office predictions will be for the Thursday-Monday time period.
We begin with A Good Day to Die Hard, the fifth go-round for Bruce Willis as John McClane. Hard to believe, but it’s been 25 years since Mr. McClane battled Hans Gruber at Nakatomi Plaza. While 80s/90s action icons have had a miserable time recently (Ahnuld with Last Stand, Sly with Bullet to the Head), A Good Day to Die Hard should be much different. It’s a brand name, it’s well-publicized, and all four previous entries have been blockbusters. For the five day period, anything below $35 million would be considered disappointing. I believe the potential is certainly there for an opening of $50M plus, but I have a feeling it may open a bit lower than that.
The romantic drama Safe Haven with Josh Duhamel and Julianne Hough enters the fray, shrewdly positioning itself for Valentine’s Day. It’s based on a popular novel by Nicholas Sparks, whose romance novels have been turned into several pictures, including The Notebook. In the same box office weekend last year, The Vow with Channing Tatum and Rachel McAdams made a killing with a $41 million opening. Safe Haven will probably not do those numbers (though it might), but it should have a rock solid opening with, I suspect, many “girls night out” outings and maybe even some fellas joining their gals to see it for Valentine’s Day. Those girls forcing their guys to go might have to see Die Hard later in the weekend, I bet.
Adding to the packed weekend is Beautiful Creatures, also based on a popular novel. The romantic fantasy film features Jeremy Irons and Emma Thompson in supporting roles and has been heavily marketed. It’s definitely going after the Twilight crowd and is geared more towards females. Warner Bros. has hopes this will become a franchise. I’m not so sure. Opening Creatures against Haven is a serious risk since they’re both going after females. Its opening shouldn’t be bad, but it might not be enough to warrant further entries. Early reviews have been mixed.
Going after the kiddie crowd is the animated Escape from Planet Earth, from the Weinstein Company. This one seems to be flying under the radar and it seems highly unlikely to do Pixar or even Dreamworks numbers. Still, there is a serious lack of titles out that appeal to parents wanting to take the kiddos out. Earth has the potential to surpass my modest prediction, but I’m going with a relatively low opening.
And we have last weekend’s champ Identity Thief in the mix on its second weekend. It had a much larger than expected opening that solidified Melissa McCarthy’s box office draw. The CinemaScore grade of “B” is actually pretty low, however, indicating audiences didn’t exactly love it. Thief could drop 50%, but with no other comedy competition, I suspect the drop-off won’t be so pronounced.
And with all that, my predictions for the Valentine’s/President’s Day five-day box office weekend:
1. A Good to Die Hard
Predicted Gross: $45.6 million
2. Safe Haven
Predicted Gross: $32.3 million
3. Identity Thief
Predicted Gross: $20.3 million (representing a drop of 41%)
4. Beautiful Creatures
Predicted Gross: $19.4 million
5. Escape from Planet Earth
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
Whew. There’s your predictions, my friends. We’ll see what happens. Check my Facebook blog throughout the weekend for updates and on Monday when the final numbers roll in.
Keeping with my theme of wrapping up “The 007 Files” with the release of Skyfall on Blu Ray tomorrow and the fact that I’ve watched all 23 official Bond films in a very short amount of time, today we add my (00) 7 Best Bond Girls.
Of course, this is just my personal opinion and I’m sure 007 lovers might strenuously disagree with my picks, but here they are. Please note that this list does not include female Bond villains… there’s going to be another blog post for greatest villains later this week. These are the officials “Bond girls” who wanna love James, not fight him.
Without further adieu, my picks for the seven greatest women in 007’s life.
7. Octopussy (Maud Adams) in Octopussy
Ms. Adams actually has the distinction of playing two totally different Bond gals, once in 1974’s The Man with the Golden Gun and here, as the title character in 1983’s Roger Moore entry. Her character is pretty badass and she even has a totally hot army of women she trains.
6. Teresa di Vicenzo (Diana Rigg) in On Her Majesty’s Secret Service
I am standing firm in my belief that OHMSS is pretty damn overrated (some consider it the best Bond film… not this guy). However, the movie does have the distinction of having Rigg’s character, referred to as Tracy, being the first gal to steal 007’s heart. He even marries her! The marriage, alas, is extraordinarily short-lived. Rigg, well-known from the TV series “The Avengers”, is a bright spot in an otherwise very uneven Bond flick.
5. Pussy Galore (Honor Blackman) in Goldfinger
She certainly has a memorable name and is considered by many to be Bond’s greatest girl. I wouldn’t go quite that far, but Blackman gives a winning performance in one of the very best 007 pictures. Bond’s introduction to her is a classic.
4. Anya Amasova (Barbara Bach) in The Spy Who Loved Me
Roger Moore’s best 007 movie has the best girl he got to romance, KGB agent Anya. Barbara Bach’s performance is average, but it’s the dynamic of her character with Bond that makes her interesting. It seems James killed her boyfriend on a previous mission (something Anya doesn’t discover until later in the picture). The backstory between 007 and Anya is well-written and gives Bach a role to play that’s not your typical Bond gal.
3. Tatiana Romanova (Daniela Bianchi) in From Russia with Love
Tatiana is the second main Bond gal and she’s a great one. Stunningly beautiful, Daniela Bianchi has a wonderful chemistry with Sean Connery. Her character is also notable for a memorable scene in which leered at by Rosa Klebb, the main villain. The homosexual undertones were pretty darn risque for 1963.
2. Vesper Lynd (Eva Green) in Casino Royale
Vesper, played in a fine performance from Eva Green, makes Bond fall the hardest he has for any girl since that brief marriage 27 years before (in movie release time). Daniel Craig’s chemistry with Green is wonderful. We actually believe he’d want to quit MI6 to be with her.
1. Honey Ryder (Ursula Andress) in Dr. No
Just because Dr. No is the first 007 picture doesn’t mean it’s the best (it’s not) or has the best villain (it doesn’t). But I’ll be damned if it doesn’t have the best girl with Ursula Andress playing Honey Ryder, whose entrance coming out of the ocean is legendary. Is her character particularly fascinating? Truthfully, no. Andress is absolutely gorgeous, though, and her interplay with Connery works quite well. This is the Bond gal that all others are measured against. Some others have come very close, but not quite Ursula territory.
If this weekend’s East Coast blizzard had a negative effect on the box office, it sure didn’t seem to hinder the Melissa McCarthy comedy Identity Thief very much. In my predictions post this past Wednesday, I wrote that the film, costarring Jason Bateman, could gross anywhere from $16 to $36 million dollars. I chose to hedge my bets, though, with its negative reviews and predicted a $22.1 million opening, while stating it could go much bigger.
Well, I was wrong on my prediction and right about the much bigger part. Identity Thief grossed a terrific $34.6 million over the weekend frame, solidifying McCarthy’s status as a major comedic movie star. Her supporting role in 2011’s Bridesmaids (complete with an Oscar nomination) got the wheels in motion. Identity Thief and its fantastic opening puts her in another realm. The opening bodes well for her next features, the buddy cop comedy The Heat with Sandra Bullock. That movie was moved from April to June, signaling a high amount of confidence from the studio to put it in summer competition. Even if The Heat gets the kind of mediocre reviews Thief achieved, expect it to be a big player at the box office this summer. McCarthy’s box office success may be bad news for fans of her CBS sitcom “Mike&Molly”. You really have to wonder how long she stays on that program with her blossoming film career.
While Identity Thief was certainly a box office bright spot, all-around grosses were approximately 45% lower than the same weekend in 2012 when The Vow and Safe House both posted debuts above $40 million.
Steven Soderbergh’s generally well-reviewed Side Effects had a lackluster $9.3 million opening, lower than my $11.5M forecast. It was last weekend’s champ, Warm Bodies, that took the #2 position with an $11.4 million gross, slightly higher than my $10.6M estimate.
In fourth, Silver Linings Playbook made $6.9 million, just above my $6.4M projection and Hansel&Gretel: Witch Hunters was fifth in its third weekend with $5.8 million, a better hold than my $4M estimate.
Be sure to check back Wednesday for my forecast for next weekend when some heavy hitters enter the frame with four debuts: A Good Day to Die Hard, Safe Haven, Beautiful Creatures, and the animated Escape from Planet Earth.