The new films are highly likely to open at numbers 2 and 3 over the weekend. There is really no doubt that last weekend’s champ Iron Man 3 will remain #1 by a wide margin. The big question is: how far will it drop? The Marvel adventure had the second largest opening weekend of all time with $174.1 million. Its opening is second only to last summer’s The Avengers, which debuted with $207 million and dropped 50% in its sophomore frame. That’s a terrific hold for such a gargantuan debut and Disney/Marvel would love to see a similar hold here. With a great “A” Cinemascore grade, a drop of only half could occur, though I’ll predict it falls a little bit more.
The top five is likely to be rounded out by holdovers 42 and Pain and Gain. With that, my predictions for this weekend’s Top Five:
1. Iron Man 3
Predicted Gross: $83.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)
2. The Great Gatsby
Predicted Gross: $41.3 million
3. Tyler Perry Presents Peeples
Predicted Gross: $18.5 million
4. 42
Predicted Gross: $3.6 million (representing a drop of 41%)
5. Pain and Gain
Predicted Gross: $3.3 million (representing a drop of 57%)
As always, updates will be posted on the Facebook page on Saturday with final results Sunday on the blog.
And if you think I’m wrong about the Gatsby and Peeples openings, I invite you to check out http://www.boxofficeace.com where you can compete against me with your own predictions.
With all my box office predictin’ and such, I’ve slacked off a bit on my 2013 Summer Movie Preview. So far, I’ve covered sequels, action flicks, comedies, sci-fi entries, franchise hopefuls like The Lone Ranger and The Mortal Instruments, and superhero movie restarts Man of Steel and The Wolverine.
Tonight, I turn to films that are a bit harder to categorize. I begin with Baz Luhrmann’s The Great Gatsby, the fourth adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald’s novel that stars Leo DiCaprio, Carey Mulligan, and Tobey Maguire. It opens this Friday and I’ve already written about it extensively in my box office prediction post from yesterday. You can find that here:
This brings me to what could be my most personally awaited release this season: Nicolas Winding Refn’s Only God Forgives, out July 19th. Refn is the director of Drive, one of my favorite pictures of the last decade. Forgives re-teams the director with star Ryan Gosling in a tale that involves Thai boxing and a twisted criminal family. I’m trying my best not to know too much about it before I see it because I want to experience it like I witnessed Drive. That basically means I didn’t know much and was pleasantly, very pleasantly, surprised. Refn has proven himself to be one of the most exciting directors working today and I’m hopeful Forgives delivers on his promise he showed two years ago. Simply put, the potential is there for this to be all kinds of awesome.
On May 31st comes Now You See Me, a caper flick from The Incredible Hulk director Louis Letterier. Starring Jesse Eisenberg, Mark Ruffalo, Woody Harrelson, Isla Fisher, and Morgan Freeman, the plot involves magicians who get mixed up in heists. I gotta say, the trailers make Now seem like it could be fun, though I wonder whether this relatively small pic will break out in a season filled with would-be blockbusters.
One of the more curious titles to emerge this summer is Much Ado About Nothing (June 7). It is an ultra low-budget black&white adaptation of Shakespeare’s play that was shot in the director’s home in less than two weeks. The catch? That director is Joss Whedon, who also made something called The Avengers last summer. Whedon decided to go in a completely different direction here before he jumps on board with the breathlessly awaited Avengers sequel.
Sofia Coppola has proven herself to be a terrific director with such memorable pictures as The Virgin Suicides and Lost in Translation. On June 14th comes The Bling Ring, starring Emma Watson as a member of a group of thieves who prey on starlets like Lindsay Lohan. Bling is based on a true story and this one has real breakout potential, especially due to its ability to target the often-neglected female audience this season.
Inception and Dark Knight Rises star Joseph Gordon-Levitt makes his directorial debut with Don Jon, out in August. Gordon-Levitt plays a womanizer whose ways begin to change when he meets two women, played by Scarlett Johannson and Julianne Moore. He’s proved himself to be a fine actor over recent years and it will be interesting to see if Gordon-Levitt’s talents translate to behind the camera. NO TRAILER AVAILABLE AT PRESS TIME.
Finally, Amanda Seyfried stars in Lovelace, a biopic about Deep Throat porn star Linda Lovelace. This could be the type of role that garners Seyfried major critical attention, as long as its decent. NO TRAILER AVAILABLE AT PRESS TIME.
No porn star biopics in my next entry of the Summer Movie Preview as I’ll preview titles geared towards family audiences. Stay tuned!
Tyler Perry Presents Peeples is virtually assured the #3 spot at the box office this weekend when it debuts. The comedy should fall behind Iron Man 3 in its second weekend and The Great Gatsby, which is highly likely to open in the runner-up spot. I predicted a $41.3M opener for Gatsby.
Most of the flicks coming out of the Tyler Perry factory have been directed and/or written by the star. This time around, he’s only producing, but the studio was smart enough to put his name in the title, as with his other features. Perry’s non-Madea pictures tend to debut somewhere in the mid-teens to mid-twenties. Some recent examples:
The Family That Preys: $17.3 million opening
I Can Do Bad All By Myself: $23.4 million opening
Good Deeds: $15.5 million opening
Confessions of a Marriage Counselor: $21.6 million
Most of those titles did not debut in the heat of the summer movie season. That’s worth mentioning because Iron Man 3 will have a massive second frame and Gatsby should do well. There is competition out there.
The film basically looks like the Perry version of Meet the Parents. It’s got a good cast – Craig Robinson from “The Office”, “In Living Color” alum David Alan Grier, and Django Unchained co-star Kerry Washington. Simply having the name Tyler Perry attached to it likely means a respectable opening, though I don’t believe it reach above $20 million, even though that’s certainly possible. I’m thinking mid-to-high teens is a better possibility.
Tyler Perry Presents Peeples opening weekend prediction: $18.5 million
Tomorrow, I’ll make my predictions for the weekend’s top five, including my projection on how Iron Man 3‘s second weekend shapes up.
Originally scheduled for release in December 2012, this weekend finally brings us the eagerly-awaited The Great Gatsby. From Romeo and Juliet and Moulin Rouge director Baz Luhrmann comes the fourth film adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald’s novel. Gatsby is headlined by Leonardo DiCaprio, Carey Mulligan, and Tobey Maguire in this romantic drama set in 1920s era New York.
The picture has had an aggressive marketing campaign. Go look at a magazine rack in your local supermarket and you’ll see Leo and Carey’s faces frequently. With a reported $127 million budget, Gatsby is certainly looking to make its mark domestically and worldwide. This is one title that has the potential to do greater business overseas than stateside.
While Warner Bros. decision to push back Gatsby to summer 2013 from the more Oscar-friendly December 2012 season was first met with confusion, the move is now looking to be perhaps a shrewd one. The main reason: there is really nothing out there right now that is primarily marketing to the female audience. We’ve still got Tony Stark and friends entering their second weekend with Iron Man 3 and the following weekend we will see Kirk and Spock in Star Trek Into Darkness. Memorial Day weekend brings Fast and Furious 6 and The Hangover Part III. All are titles more concerned with bringing in the dudes than the ladies. I would suspect some female significant others take their male counterparts to see the film this weekend because they watched Iron Man 3 last weekend.
With its star power driven by Leo and some effective trailers (not to mention a buzzed about soundtrack), Gatsby could be in a position to exceed expectations. Conventional wisdom would put the pic around a $30-35 million opening. Anything less would have to be considered a letdown due to the budget.
I’m going a little higher, just as I did with my Iron Man 3 projection (and that worked out pretty well). I went with $172.4M for the third Tony Stark adventure. It made slightly more with $174.1M. On Wednesday, I’ll have my projection for Iron Man 3‘s second weekend where it’ll certainly remain #1. Tomorrow, I’ll have my projection for the weekend’s other new release, Tyler Perry Presents Peeples.
Today, though, it’s about Gatsby. And it’s about predicting a healthy debut for it.
The Great Gatsby opening weekend projection: $41.3 million
SPOILER ALERT: If you have yet to see Silver Linings Playbook, two pieces of advice: go watch it right now. After you do, read this post. If you have seen it, read on…
David O. Russell’s Silver Linings Playbook is the kind of movie that restores your faith in movies. It is in many ways wholly original while also using time tested film conventions in fantastic ways.
It is filled with great performances. This is not only a showcase for Bradley Cooper and Jennifer Lawrence in her Oscar-winning role, but also for Robert De Niro, Jacki Weaver, and Chris Tucker, who for far too long only played alongside Jackie Chan in Rush Hour flicks. We need to see more of him.
The film is a triumph of direction by Russell, one of the most exciting filmmakers of his generation. He knows how to bring an electric sense of movie making to a scene. The climactic dance scene between Cooper and Lawrence is one example of many. Russell’s style brings a feeling of true nail-biting suspense… to a mid-level regional dance competition in Philadelphia. Not an easy thing to do.
The picture takes us on a journey bringing together two lost souls, Pat (Cooper) and Tiffany (Lawrence). They both have a vast array of issues, to say the least. Pat is suffering from mental health problems, some of which is due to his broken marriage. Tiffany is still trying to recover from the death of her husband and is failing most of the time.
All the characters in Silver Linings Playbook are flawed. You know, like real people. De Niro plays Pat’s dad. He’s a deeply superstitious football fanatic whose character defects may have contributed to his son’s own issues. Jacki Weaver plays Pat’s mom and she struggles with finding the right balance for how to help her son (and her husband). Chris Tucker was at Pat’s mental health facility that he was committed to. He’s chock full of issues, too. And even the secondary characters like Tiffany’s sister and her husband are stuck in a marriage that seems to be going downhill.
Pat and Tiffany find one another and become connected through agreeing to enter a dance competition together. Their motives are at first self-serving. Tiffany basically blackmails Pat into doing it by promising to give a letter to his estranged wife. You see, there’s a restraining order between them. Tiffany seems to just want the company of Pat and this is her way of achieving it.
When we reach the wonderful climactic dance scene, we are left so happy by their ability to pull it off. Plus it’s pretty damn funny. In a lesser movie, that dance would’ve been some masterpiece of movement that left us floored. Not here. It’s, well, realistic. And that makes it even better.
The big question we’re left with is whether Pat and Tiffany end up together. In a lesser movie, there would be no doubt. In a movie this original and at times unexpected, we really don’t know. We get our answer in an absolutely beautiful scene between them. Without going over every aspect, this scene leaves us as an audience totally satisfied. And when Pat reveals his love for Tiffany, he presents her with a letter that she begins to read aloud and then he finishes it. He knows the letter by heart because as he reveals to her, “I wrote that a week ago.” We realize that Pat has wanted to be with Tiffany for longer than we suspected. Longer than she suspected. And that line and those six words left me with a smile on my face that lasted until after the credits rolled.
Silver Linings Playbook presents us with two flawed and imperfect people whose flaws and imperfections compliment one another’s in a perfect way. What’s more romantic than that? The film is one of the best movies in recent years. And those six words uttered by Pat to Tiffany are another example of Movie Perfection.
Hip hop has been going strong for over 30 years and the musical genre once seen as a fad is now a permanent part of the soundtrack of our lives. The world of rap has also turned out an impressive array of artists who’ve translated their talents from the music world to the silver screen. Tonight on the blog, my personal list of the Top Ten Rappers Turned Actors.
10. Ice-T
Before becoming a reality TV star and having a hit show with “Law&Order: Special Victims Unit”, Mr. T was one of the O.G. rappers to become a movie star, with credits that include New Jack City, Ricochet, Trespass, and Surviving the Game.
9. RZA
The founder of the groundbreaking group Wu-Tang Clan makes the list just as much for his behind-the-scenes work in film. Last year, he directed the Russell Crowe martial arts flick The Man with the Iron Fists. RZA also brilliantly did the score for Quentin Tarantino’s Kill Bill films. His straight acting credits include Ghost Dog, American Gangster, and Funny People.
8. Ludacris
The “Stand Up” rapper earns his place here due to being part of the massively successful Fast and Furious franchise and appearing in an Oscar-winning Best Picture, 2005’s Crash. That same year, he gave a solid supporting performance in Hustle&Flow. We’ll forgive him for Fred Claus. But he also gets points for his song “Get Back” being featured so memorably with Tom Cruise dancing to it in Tropic Thunder.
7. LL Cool J
LL’s actual movie career has been spotty at best, filled with box office disappointments that include Toys and Rollerball. On the bright side, there was Any Given Sunday. However, it’s his TV career that gets him this spot with a successful sitcom “In the House” and hit drama series “NCIS: Los Angeles.”
6. Tupac Shakur
As with his great rap career, who knows how big Tupac’s movie career would have become? He was well on his way before that fateful Vegas night in 1996. The late rapper’s credits include Juice, Poetic Justice, Above the Rim and Gridlock’d.
5. Eminem
Memo to Marshall Mathers: make another damn movie! His 8 Mile in 2002 was hip hop’s Purple Rain and proved the artist to be quite a good actor. Since then, he made a cameo as himself in Funny People and on “Entourage”.
4. Queen Latifah
The “U.N.I.T.Y.” rapper received an Oscar nomination for Chicago, headlined the hit comedy Bringing Down the House with Steve Martin, and was featured in other titles ranging from Set It Off to Hairspray. Latifah also starred in the hit FOX comedy “Living Single”.
3. Ice Cube
Who would’ve thought one of the most controversial rappers at one time would transition his career to starring in family-friendly titles like Are We There Yet? He made a splash with his debut in John Singleton’s 1991 classic Boyz N The Hood. Other credits include the Friday franchise, Anaconda, Three Kings, the Barbershop films, and 21 Jump Street. He directed 1998’s hit The Player’s Club.
2. Mark Wahlberg
There may be a whole young generation who don’t even remember “Marky Mark” as a hip hop artist. Talk about a successful transition! Wahlberg’s movie credits are truly impressive: Boogie Nights, Three Kings, Planet of the Apes, The Italian Job, The Other Guys, The Fighter, and Ted, to name a few. He was Oscar nominated for The Departed. Quite an accomplishment for someone who was once best known for rapping with his shirt off.
1. Will Smith
No real contest here. His films have earned a combined $2.6 billion domestically. This includes the smash hits Independence Day, Enemy of the State, I Robot, Hitch, and I Am Legend. Of course, there’s also the Bad Boys and Men in Black franchises. And there’s two Oscar nominations – for Ali and The Pursuit of Happyness. And there’s that hit TV show that got him started acting in the first place, “The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air”. DJ Jazzy Jeff’s movie career has been considerably less impressive.
There’s your top ten, my friends! Other rappers that have made their mark in movies include DMX, Snoop Dogg, T.I., Mos Def, and Eve.
Of course, there are always example of popular rappers (at the time) making missteps:
And we have also have the occasional actor who wrongly thinks he can rap:
So, based on history, keep an eye on 2 Chainz or Drake or Nicki Minaj coming to a theater near you. And how long until Macklemore gets that Oscar nomination?
Disney and Marvel’s Iron Man 3 has kicked off the 2013 Summer Movie Season in grand fashion with the second biggest opening domestic weekend of all time.
Tony Stark and friends propelled the pic to a fantastic $174.1 million opener, opening just slightly above my $172.4M projection. With an A Cinemascore grade, the future looks bright for Iron Man. It will certainly be the highest grosser of the trilogy and the odds are heavy that it will not only be the summer’s highest earning title, but possibly the biggest of 2013, period. Iron Man 3 managed to outdo the gross of the final Harry Potter installment, which earned $169 million in its debut.
As I mentioned in my predictions post last week, it’s last summer’s The Avengers that had audiences primed to see Tony Stark return. Filmgoers will get their next taste of Avengers action in November when Thor gets his sequel and next year when Captain America does, too. It is, of course, The Avengers that continues to hold the honor of largest opening weekend ever. That record should stand for a while.
Iron Man 3 accounted for around 80% of all US business at the multiplex this weekend. As expected, no other title reached double digits. Last weekend’s #1 Pain and Gain fell off sharply with $7.5 million in its second weekend (below my $8.9M projection). 42 was third with $6 million, which is precisely what I predicted. It was the Tom Cruise sci-fi pic Oblivion that suffered the most, in fourth with $5.6 million (well below my $8.1M projection). The Croods rounded out the top five with $4.2 million… I said $4.3M.
The Marvel blockbuster looks to repeat at first next weekend as new entries The Great Gatsby and Tyler Perry Presents Peeples join the mix. I’ll have predictions posts for both of those titles early this week. Stay tuned!
Leonardo DiCaprio headlines the eagerly awaited remake of The Great Gatsby, opening this Friday. He’s made his cinematic mark with an impeccable track record of working with the best directors and choosing terrific projects. Gangs of New York, The Aviator, The Departed, Shutter Island, and the upcoming Wolf of Wall Street with Scorsese. Catch Me If You Can with Spielberg. Inception with Nolan.
However, a 2008 title that reunited Leo with Titanic co-star Kate Winslet was a surprise dud at the box office, bringing in a meager $22 million domestically. That film is Revolutionary Road, directed by American Beauty and Skyfall‘s Sam Mendes. It chronicles a marriage gone bad between the two leads during the 1950s, an era when divorce wasn’t a popular option in society’s view. Road features sharp writing and sure-handed direction with its often dark overtones. It also features DiCaprio doing what he normally does: putting forth a rock solid performance that proves why he’s one of his generation’s finest performers. A supporting performance by Michael Shannon is also one of the picture’s high points.
Revolutionary Road is a frank, honest, and often unflinching view of marriage and broken dreams. Leo and Winslet are both wonderful in it. It’s a tough pic to digest at times, but it’s worth the trip. And while most of Leo’s movies have been financial successes, this is an example of one that fell through the cracks and shouldn’t have.
It’s all about Iron Man 3 this weekend at the box office as the Summer 2013 Movie Season officially begins. On Sunday, I wrote an extensive post in which I boldly predicted the film will have the second biggest US opening of all time after last summer’s The Avengers. That post can be found here:
All other titles should experience falls between the mid 40s-mid 50s percentage range, with the likely exception of The Croods, which has experienced smaller declines week to week. Last weekend’s #1 and #2, Pain and Gain and Oblivion, have been met with mixed reaction from audiences. Pain and Gain disappointed in its opening last weekend with $20 million and its C+ Cinemascore grade would indicate a precipitous drop, especially with Tony Stark arriving on scene.
That said, here’s my predictions for the weekend’s top five:
1. Iron Man 3
Predicted Gross: $172.4 million
2. Pain and Gain
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 55%)
3. Oblivion
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million (representing a drop of 54%)
4. 42
Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 44%)
5. The Croods
Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)
Check back this weekend on the Facebook page for updates on how Tony Stark and friends are doing and, of course, on the blog Sunday for final results.
There is one box office record that Iron Man 3 will not break when it opens this weekend, officially kicking off the 2013 Summer movie season.
It will not have the biggest opening weekend of all time. That honor belongs to The Avengers at $207 million and is highly unlikely to be broken this year.
It may not be the biggest sequel opening of all time, though it could be. The #2 largest opening weekend belongs to Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2 at $169 million. #3 belongs to The Dark Knight Rises at $160 million, with its predecessor The Dark Knight fourth at $158 million.
Clearly it will not have the all-time opening record for a film featuring a comic book superhero. And, obviously, it stands little chance of having the biggest opening for a movie with the character Tony Stark in it. The Avengers shall remain the one with that designation.
Having said all that, the third installment in the Iron Man franchise looks poised for a massive debut this weekend. It will unquestionably set the record for largest 2013 debut so far, likely crushing the $79 million debut by Oz the Great and Powerful. In fact, Iron Man 3 may well have the largest opener of the entire year. The only real competition would be Man of Steel or November’s Hunger Games: Catching Fire.
The original Iron Man in 2008 surpassed industry expectations with a $98 million opening weekend. Its sequel in 2010 made a killing with a $128 million debut. Respectively, that represents the #24 and #11 all-time openers. Iron Man 3 is very likely to exceed both of those grosses this weekend and then some.
This is not because Iron Man 2 was a beloved entry in the superhero movie genre… it wasn’t. It’s because last summer’s The Avengers was. That movie was a phenomenon and its considerable coattails should propel Robert Downey Jr.’s return as Tony Stark to new heights. Iron Man 3 is likely to be the highest overall domestic earner of the trilogy. The first topped out at $318 million and the follow-up at $312 million. It will definitely have the highest opening.
Another plus: reviews for the third installment are quite positive with some critics proclaiming it the best of the series so far and nearly all deeming it a vast improvement over #2. This all adds to the buzz of Iron Man 3 being a must-see event.
I just posted my Top Ten Superhero Movies of All Time in a separate piece. You can review it here:
Could Iron Man 3 join the original Iron Man and The Avengers on that list? We shall see soon enough.
The possibility of Iron Man 3 having the 2nd largest opening of all time is real. Very real. It would need to debut higher than the final Harry Potter‘s $169 million. That could happen and I am inclined to go with that. Internationally, the picture opened higher than Avengers did last year. That was unexpected. We could all be surprised when the numbers roll in this coming weekend. Who knows? It could even reach Avengers level numbers domestically.
Ultimately, I’m predicting Iron Man 3 reaches the #2 all-time domestic opening. It may not and could fall under Harry Potter’s gross and even the grosses of the Nolan Batman sequels. To me, however, Iron Man 3 is moving forward with incredible momentum that should earn it the runner-up spot, second only to the full Avengers team.
Iron Man 3 opening weekend prediction: $172.4 million
On Wednesday, I’ll make my predictions for the top five this weekend. SPOILER ALERT: I’m going with Iron Man 3 at number one.
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