Author: toddmthatcher

The Purge Box Office Prediction

I would say that even a month ago, The Purge was really on no one’s radar screen when talking about potentially successful summer flicks. That has changed.

The Ethan Hawke thriller comes with a very cool concept. Set in 2022, The Purge refers to a 24-hour period that takes place every year in which all crime, including murder, is legal. Hawke is the head of a family who are terrorized by those looking to punch their free crime card. This pic seems to have gained momentum just in the last couple of weeks with frequent TV spots. I will admit – the trailers and ads for The Purge are pretty damn effective.

Five summers ago, a similar title The Strangers opened to a robust $21 million. I certainly believe The Purge could post similar grosses. Films like this tend to do more than what most prognosticators go with, so I’m tempted to predict on the high end of expectations. Mr. Hawke had a nice size hit just last fall with Sinister, which opened with a more than expected $18 million.

The sudden surge of Purge could mean a #1 opening this weekend. I believe it will be a close race between this and the Owen Wilson/Vince Vaughn comedy The Internship. My prediction for that film can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/03/the-internship-box-office-prediction/

I’ve gone too low on too many similar titles and I won’t do it here. With that said:

The Purge opening weekend prediction: $24.9 million

I’ll have full predictions for this weekend’s top five later this week – stay tuned!

The Internship Box Office Prediction

Eight long summers ago, Vince Vaughn and Owen Wilson struck box office gold with Wedding Crashers, which was the surprise hit of the season with $209 million domestically. Since then, the two actors have seen more flops than hits. Fred Claus? You, Me, and Dupree? The Dilemma? Drillbit Taylor? Hall Pass? The Watch?

You get the idea. So it makes perfect sense that the two stars would team up again to recapture some box office magic. The Internship features Vince and Owen as obsolete salesmen who are forced to start over at Google headquarters. It costars Rose Byrne, John Goodman, and maybe even a surprise actor or two…

The question is: will the reunion of these actors be enough to guarantee solid box office returns? My feeling is – if so, the marketing campaign surrounding the picture is not doing it any favors. I simply haven’t found the trailers to be very funny at all. Some of the humor displayed in the previews looks curiously outdated. And I find the decision of a PG-13 rating to be possibly troubling – Wedding Crashers, after all, is known for its R rated humor.

When The Internship was first announced, there may have been a feeling of excitement about the two leads teaming up again. That anticipation seems to have dissipated. There’s also what I feel will be a real competition for the top spot this weekend. The Ethan Hawke thriller The Purge seems to be running an effective marketing campaign and its numbers could be strong. My prediction post for that will be up either later tonight or tomorrow.

The Internship is an excellent example of a movie that could easily over or under perform. We could see a $30 million opening weekend. We could see a $12 million opening weekend. I think Vaughn and Wilson reunited is most likely to equal a high teens or low-twenties opening weekend.

The Internship opening weekend prediction: $20.7 million

The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift Movie Review

2006’s The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift is the third entry in the series. It brings in a new cast and places its setting on a new continent. The results, however, are not too pleasing.

With Paul Walker, Tyrese, and everyone else out of the picture (for now), Tokyo Drift centers on Sean, a rebellious high school kid who loves drag racing. So much so that Sean gets into trouble after one particularly fouled up race and is sent to Tokyo to live with his military father.

Sean is played by Lucas Black, who you may remember as the kid from Sling Blade. He grew up to look a little bit like a young Dave Matthews. And he definitely grew up… I couldn’t help but chuckle when his character is supposed to be 17. The actor was 24 when he played the role. He looks 28. There’s one scene where some girls are flirting with Sean and his friend exclaims, “Ladies, he’s underage!” I wanted to shout “No he isn’t!!” back at the screen.

With the move to Tokyo, Sean strikes up a friendship with a famous actor played by Bill Murray who’s in town to shoot a liquor commercial. Wait. Wrong movie. Sean actually strikes up a friendship with Twinkie, played by Bow Wow. I’m assuming at one point his name was Lil Twinkie. Of course, Twinkie gets Sean right back into the street racing world.

This mixes Sean up with DK (Brian Tee), whose uncle Mr. Kamata (the legendary Sonny Chiba) is a fixture in the Yakuza. Naturally, DK has a girlfriend Neela (Natalie Kelley) that Sean stupidly goes after. Just like Paul Walker does! And there’s also Han (Sung Kang), who works for Mr. Kamata and takes a liking to Sean.

Tokyo Drift introduces us to the practice “drifting”, in which the driver intentionally loses traction in the rear wheels to get through corners, etc… And that’s straight from Wikipedia, folks, so ya know it’s true! We even get a couple of monologues after how drifting makes you feel like a free person. Or some nonsense like that.

The movie takes a long way to get where it’s going and the first hour is quite a bore. When we finally get a pretty badass race through the streets of Tokyo, Drift makes a rather severe shift in tone that feels a bit jarring.

Although there is that aforementioned race that works and the climactic race down a mountain that is effective, Tokyo Drift is mostly weak sauce. None of the acting is particularly memorable and the screenplay feels lazy (lame references to Justin Timberlake and Beyonce stand out). Director Justin Lin takes over the franchise and he can direct action, but there’s not enough of it. Some of the production design is rather sweet looking so props to the team behind that.

By the end, we do get a cameo from a major star in the franchise. I don’t wanna give too much away, but here’s a hint. It’s not Viola Davis, but it’s an actor with the same initials. Perhaps I’ve said too much.

The original was a mixed bag that had a lot of solid moments. I found the second to be an improvement because it knew it was trash, but was often fun as hell. Tokyo Drift simply doesn’t have much going for it and it definitely the worst of the bunch so far.

** (out of four)

The blog series will continue with film #4 Fast&Furious.

2 Fast 2 Furious Movie Review

Continuing on with my blog series evaluating the films in the Fast and Furious franchise, we move onto #2 in the series titled 2 Fast 2 Furious. Released a decade ago, the sequel incorporates future Twitter speak with its title. Apparently Too Fast Too Furious didn’t work. Or The Faster and the Furiouser. Or the obvious choice – Fast and Furious 2. Due to their choice, I have chosen 2 incorporate Twitter speak as best I can 4 the remainder of this review:

2 Fast 2 Furious moves the action away from California 2 Miami w/lead character Brian (Paul Walker) going undercover once again 2 infiltrate drug lord Verone (Cole Hauser), who from here on out will b known as “Scarface lite.” If Brian successfully brings down Scarface lite, his criminal record achieved in the original film will b wiped clean. Furthermore, it will allow the character 2 try 2 rectify his deserved reputation as the Worst Undercover Cop in Film History. Brian enlists his childhood friend Roman (Tyrese Gibson) 2B his partner on the mission. They also partner up w/a hot undercover customs agent, played by Eva Mendes (#goslingsgirlfriend).

The film brings in Boyz N The Hood director John Singleton, taking over the franchise from Rob Cohen. There’s also no Vin Diesel, Jordana Brewster, or Michelle Rodgriguez, but Luda is in the house! (#standup) (#chickenandbeer) (#getback) (#southernhospitality) Like the original, the dialogue n character development often leave much 2B desired. Roman’s main character trait is that he likes 2 eat a lot. LMFAO! Scarface lite is a rather dull villain. And, once again, Brian chooses the 1 girl 2 develop a crush on (#goslingsgirlfriend) that he really shouldn’t.

Having said all that, I’ll B damned if 2 Fast 2 Furious isn’t mostly a whole lotta fun. This is more action flick than street racing flick & the action sequences r well-done n exciting. 2 Fast is certainly not an intelligent movie, but whaddya expect? I was highly entertained most of the time – more so, in fact, than I was w/the original. I know this goes against the general consensus, but I gotta B honest. YOLO. Plus, the 1st 1 didn’t have a bizarre sequence where a rat gnaws on a dude’s stomach! SMH

If u leave leave ur critical nitpicking behind going in2 the pic, there’s a good time 2B had here.

*** (outta 4)

I’ll b back w/the 3rd Fast movie Tokyo Drift soon… c ya! ttyl 😉

Box Office Results: May 31-June 2

It’s certainly not every weekend that you can describe the box office results as truly shocking. However, this weekend… they were truly shocking. 

This is for two reasons: the over performance of Now You See Me and the under performance of After Earth. No one figured the caper flick Now You See Me had a chance of making more than Will Smith’s sci-fi pic After Earth. That’s precisely what happened.

We begin where we should though and that’s with Fast and Furious 6 remaining in the top spot with $35.1 million, a tad below my $36M projection. The sixth F+F installment experienced a sophomore weekend decline right in line with other entries in the franchise.

This brings us to #2… Now You See Me. And that would be an epic failure of predicting on my part. I grossly underestimated the picture and predicted it’d open sixth with $14.2 million. Boy, was I wrong. Garnering a rock solid A- Cinemascore average, See Me took the runner-up spot with an impressive $29.3 million. Audiences clearly were in the mood for something original and different and this seemed to be just the ticket.

And now to the enormous failure of After Earth. The M. Night Shyamalan directed sci-fi pic starring Will and Jaden Smith earned brutal reviews and, as it turns out, audience ambivalence. I incorrectly figured Smith’s star power would propel the film to a #1 opening and a $39.1 million opening weekend. Again… boy, was I wrong! Placing third, Earth debuted with a very weak $27.5 million. Earning a tepid B Cinemascore grade, expect Earth to fade fast in subsequent weekends.

Star Trek Into Darkness took fourth with $16.7 million, edging out fifth place Epic at $16.6 million. I predicted a bit more for each at $18.5M and $17.7M, respectively. And continuing its disappointing results in sixth place was The Hangover Part III, which made $16.3 million in its sophomore weekend (I predicted $17.1M).

RECAP

Fast and Furious 6

Gross: $35.1 million. Todd’s Prediction: $36 million.

Now You See Me

Gross: $29.3 million. Todd’s Prediction: $14.2 million.

After Earth

Gross: $27.5 million. Todd’s Prediction: $39.1 million.

Epic

Gross: $16.6 million. Todd’s Prediction: $17.7 million.

Star Trek Into Darkness

Gross: $16.7 million. Todd’s Prediction: $18.5 million.

The Hangover Part III

Gross: $16.3 million. Todd’s Prediction: $17.1 million.

So there you have it – not a great weekend for me predicting the new openers at all. I’ll try to do better next weekend. Tomorrow on the blog, I’ll have my opening weekend prediction for the Vince Vaughn/Owen Wilson comedy The Internship. Tuesday, my opening prediction for The Purge starring Ethan Hawke. And Wednesday, my usual Top Five predictions. Stay tuned!

The Fast and the Furious Movie Review

Being that the top two grossing opening weekends in Universal Pictures history is the last two installments of the Fast and Furious franchise, I felt it was time for yours truly to take a look at the series.

Yes, believe it or not, I have only seen the original F+F picture. That was twelve years ago and I barely remembered it. So what’s a blogger to do? Why go out and buy the first five flicks and review them all for your perusal. Hopefully, I’ll watch ’em in enough time to catch the sixth feature in the theater and blog about it as well.

Let’s begin with the franchise’s first entry, 2001’s The Fast and the Furious. Director Rob Cohen brings us into the world of California street racing when LAPD officer Brian (Paul Walker) goes undercover to solve a series of truck hijackings. This introduces him to a team of racers led by Dominic (Vin Diesel). His crew includes his girl Letty (Michelle Rodriguez), the one that doesn’t like Brian, the one whose dad is in jail, and, um, the other one. Of course, Brian also falls in love with Dominic’s sister (Jordana Brewster) in order for him to be emotionally invested.

Dominic’s crew is in a long-standing rivalry with an Asian street gang, led by Johnny Tran (Die Another Day‘s Rick Yune) and it is that crew that Brian initially suspects of being the perps. It just can’t be Dominic, especially after he explains his daddy issues to Brian in a male bonding moment.

Truth be told, The Fast and the Furious is no great of example of writing or, in my cases, acting. Walker is a bit of blank slate and Brewster is rather dull as well. The one with screen presence is definitely Mr. Diesel, as well as Ms. Rodriguez.

It’s worth noting that Fast seems directly influenced by an action pic that came ten years before it, Kathryn Bigelow’s Point Break. Call this Point Brake, if you will. Only it’s not near as good.

Where Fast often succeeds is its well choreographed car sequences that certainly make it highly watchable. Director Cohen directs the pic with energy and style with a soundtrack that bumps with Ludacris and Ja Rule beats for the first half and mostly techno in the second half.

Is it enough for me say the original Fast is a good movie? Not really, but it’s close. I certainly get why legions of moviegoers enjoyed it. If I’m being honest, though, I spent the last few minutes of the film wondering two things:

1) In the climactic truck hijacking, how come there’s zero traffic on a freeway other than the hijacked truck and Brian, Dominic, and crew?

2) Isn’t Paul Walker’s character literally the worst undercover cop in the history of undercover cops?

Still, the o.g. F+F gets the franchise off to a serviceable start. Who knew that this modestly budgeted flick would become the biggest franchise in the world that doesn’t involve superheroes or is based on a wildly popular series of books?

**1/2 (out of four)

We’ll see what the gang is up to as my blog series continues shortly with 2003’s 2 Fast 2 Furious.

An Arena Grand Era Ends

For those who haven’t figured it out yet, I’m an incurable movie buff. When I look back nearly 250 blog posts later, my very first blog post talked about that feeling of sitting in a movie theater when the lights dim and the excitement that goes along with the feeling that you’re about to see something new. Oh, don’t get me wrong. You might be disappointed. You might be underwhelmed. However, there’s always that possibility. And that’s just one reason I love movies.

Over the past decade, a number of those moments have happened at the Arena Grand Movie Theater in the Arena District of Columbus, Ohio. And on Monday, the theater ceased to exist when it was bought out by a company that specializes in a dining-movie screening experience, similar to the Movie Tavern in Hilliard. I personally have nothing major against this move and I wish the new company well. Frankly, I’m thrilled the location will still be a movie theater.

That is not without some reservations. While I admire the Movie Tavern and have had some good experiences there, I generally am not a huge fan of the format. Why? Well, probably because I’m such a movie buff. I want to watch the movie with as little distraction as possible. I don’t want to think about whether to order chicken fingers or the mini-burgers or the loaded nachos. I’m not really concerned with what beers are on tap. And I especially don’t want a waiter coming up to me every 15 minutes while I’m trying to follow plot points asking if everything is “OK”. The answer is yes – I’m watching the movie.

The Arena Grand Theater was a quality theater in a great location, but I will admit that in the last decade I’ve seen more films at the AMC Lennox. I’m curious to check out the new theater that will operate in Arena Grand’s former location, but I will always hold the following memories of the Arena Grand:

– barely being able to contain myself from very loud laughter at certain points during Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy. I would’ve loved to see the sequel there.

– leaving work a little early on a sunny Friday afternoon with a coworker to watch Tom Cruise battle through an alien invasion in War of the Worlds.

– going with one of my best friends on a Friday night to watch The Departed on opening night and going next door to the local bar afterwards to discuss how amazing it was.

– having the entire balcony to myself to watch Woman in Black, a nice horror supernatural flick with Daniel Radcliffe that I still think is underrated.

– watching the final act of The Avengers with my jaw dropped for most of it.

– trying to see Ted with one of my best friends at the AMC Lennox and it was too crowded. We made it to Arena Grand just in time to grab seats in a packed theater… right next to two of my other greatest friends who we didn’t know were going to be there.

– going to see Django Unchained the day after Christmas after driving back from Fremont and keeping my absolute adoration of Quentin Tarantino’s movies intact.

And those are just seven of several examples. Arena Grand was a wonderful theater and I’ll miss it. I hope I can make some more good memories in that same location… even while I tell the waiter that “I’m still fine, thanks again.”

Todd’s Box Office Predictions: My Blog History So Far…

***UPDATED: With this particular blog post, I will updating it every week to reflect how I continue to perform with each weekend’s new release. So that means you can pretty much ignore the next paragraph talking about After Earth and Now You See Me opening. Simply scroll down to the main list below to see how I’m doin’ with the predictin’:

With this weekend’s debuts of After Earth and Now You See Me, they will mark the 69th and 70th films I’ve made opening weekend predictions for. This is since I started doing box office projections on the blog starting during the second weekend of November when Skyfall debuted.

Based on a suggestion from a reader, it got me thinking. How have I done so far? I am grateful and pleased that my box office predictions posts have been the most-viewed items on my little blog, so it feels time to take inventory on my successes… and failures.

Before I give you the facts, it’s important to note that the bigger a picture opens, the easier it is to be off by more. Pretty simple concept… if I think a movie will open at $6 million, the chances of it doing $4M or $8M is very likely. This means I’m only off $2 million. If a movie is expected to open around $80 million, the chances of it doing $70M or $90M increase, meaning I’m ten million off.

With that said, I’ve broken down categories by how much I was off. You can judge yourself on how I’ve done up to this juncture. From now on, I will give a monthly report on the blog assessing my prognosticating performances for that time frame.

Predictions Within $2 million

Playing for Keeps

Prediction: $7M. Actual Gross: $5.8M. Difference: $1.2M

The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Prediction: $84.8M. Actual Gross: $84.6M. Difference: $182K.

Jack Reacher

Prediction: $17.6M. Actual Gross: $15.6M. Difference: $2M.

The Impossible

Prediction: $2.6M. Actual Gross: $2.8M. Difference: $268K.

Promised Land

Prediction: $4.2M. Actual Gross: $4M. Difference: $150K.

Parker

Prediction: $6.1M. Actual Gross: $7M. Difference: $908K.

Movie 43

Prediction: $5.8M. Actual Gross: $4.8M. Difference: $994K.

Warm Bodies

Prediction: $20.5M. Actual Gross: $20.4M. Difference: $146K.

Stand Up Guys

Prediction: $1.2M. Actual Gross: $1.5M. Difference: $286K.

Safe Haven

Prediction: $32.3M. Actual Gross: $33.3M. Difference: $1M

Snitch

Prediction: $13.3M. Actual Gross: $13.2M. Difference: $132K.

Phantom

Prediction: $2.3M. Actual Gross: $470K. Difference: $1.7M.

Jack the Giant Slayer

Prediction: $25.4M. Actual Gross: $27.2M. Difference: $1.8M.

G.I. Joe: Retaliation

Prediction: $49.5M. Actual Gross: $51M. Difference: $1.5M.

Dead Man Down

Prediction: $5.9M. Actual Gross: $5.3M. Difference: $554K.

Spring Breakers

Prediction: $6.8M. Actual Gross: $4.9M. Difference: $1.9M.

The Croods

Prediction: $44.3M. Actual Gross: $43.6M. Difference: $660K.

Admission

Prediction: $7.6M. Actual Gross: $6.2M. Difference: $1.4M.

Iron Man 3

Prediction: $172.4M. Actual Gross: $174.1M. Difference: $1.7M.

Summing up this group, that makes 19 out of 68 (28%) that I got within two million dollars of opening weekend gross. I must admit my feather in the cap moments would be The Hobbit, The Croods, Iron Man 3, Warm Bodies, Snitch, and G.I. Joe. The Rock’s Snitch is my best to date with a difference of $132,000.

Predictions within $2.1-$4 million

Lincoln

Prediction: $18.1M. Actual Gross: $21M. Difference: $2.9M.

Killing Them Softly

Prediction: $9.6M. Actual Gross: $6.8M. Difference: $2.8M.

Gangster Squad

Prediction: $20.7M. Actual Gross: $17.1M. Difference: $3.6M.

Bullet to the Head

Prediction: $8M. Actual Gross: $4.5M. Difference: $3.4M.

Side Effects

Prediction: $11.5M. Actual Gross: $9.3M. Difference: $2.1M.

Dark Skies

Prediction: $10.6M. Actual Gross: $8.2M. Difference: $2.4M.

The Last Exorcism II

Prediction: $10.6M. Actual Gross: $7.7M. Difference: $2.8M.

Olympus Has Fallen

Prediction: $27.8M. Actual Gross: $30.4M. Difference: $2.5M.

Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor

Prediction: $19.2M. Actual Gross: $21.6M. Difference: $2.4M.

42

Prediction: $24.7M. Actual Gross: $27.5M. Difference: $2.7M.

Pain and Gain

Prediction: $23.8M. Actual Gross: $20M. Difference: $3.8M.

The Big Wedding

Prediction: $11.2M. Actual Gross: $7.5M. Difference: $3.6M.

Epic

Prediction: $45.5M. Actual Gross: $42.8M. Difference: $2.6M.

The Internship

Prediction: $20.7M. Actual Gross: $17.3M. Difference: $3.3M.

This category represents 13 out of 68 entries or 19%. I was happy with my Olympus Has Fallen and 42 predictions. I guessed higher than many others on both titles. Both made more than my projection, but I was in the correct ballpark.

Predictions within $4.1-$7 million

Skyfall

Prediction: $82.3M. Actual Gross: $88.4M. Difference: $6.1M.

Life of Pi

Prediction: $24.4M. Actual Gross: $30.6M. Difference: $6.1M.

This Is 40

Prediction: $15.7M. Actual Gross: $11.6M. Difference: $4.1M.

The Guilt Trip

Prediction: $11.6M. Actual Gross: $7.3M. Difference: $4.2M.

Zero Dark Thirty

Prediction: $29.1M. Actual Gross: $24.4M. Difference: $4.7M.

Texas Chainsaw 3D

Prediction: $16.1M. Actual Gross: $21.7M. Difference: $5.6M.

The Last Stand

Prediction: $14M. Actual Gross: $7.2M. Difference: $6.7M.

Broken City

Prediction: $15.3M. Actual Gross: $9M. Difference: $5.7M.

Hansel&Gretel: Witch Hunters

Prediction: $13M. Actual Gross: $19.7M. Difference: $6.6M.

Escape from Planet Earth

Prediction: $14.2M. Actual Gross: $21.1M. Difference: $6.9M.

The Incredible Burt Wonderstone

Prediction: $16.3M. Actual Gross: $10.2M. Difference: $6.1M.

The Host

Prediction: $15.7M. Actual Gross: $10.6M. Difference: $5M.

Jurassic Park 3D

Prediction: $12.8M. Actual Gross: $18.6M. Difference: $5.8M.

Evil Dead

Prediction: $19.8M. Actual Gross: $25.8M. Difference: $5.9M.

Oblivion

Prediction: $32.8M. Actual Gross: $38.2M. Difference: $5.4M.

Observations: I gave way too much credit for Arnold Schwarzenegger’s comeback vehicle The Last Stand, as well as comedies This Is 40 and The Guilt Trip. I underestimated Leatherface, Evil Dead, and Hansel and Gretel doing their witch huntin’. This group of films is 15 out of the 68 predictions… 22%. By the way, if you’re reading these and thinking my math doesn’t add up in certain situations, it actually does when factoring in the full number. I’m not listing the exact dollar amount – just to the closet one hundred thousandth.

Predictions within $7.1-$10M

Red Dawn

Prediction: $14M. Actual Gross: $21.7M. Difference: $7.7M.

Monsters Inc. 3D

Prediction: $16.2M. Actual Gross: $6.3M. Difference: $9.9M.

A Haunted House

Prediction: $10.8M. Actual Gross: $18.1M. Difference: $7.3M.

A Good Day to Die Hard

Prediction: $45.6M. Actual Gross: $36.9M. Difference: $8.7M.

Beautiful Creatures

Prediction: $19.4M. Actual Gross: $11.5M. Difference: $7.9M.

21 and Over

Prediction: $18 million. Actual Gross: $8.8M. Difference: $9.2M.

Oz the Great and Powerful

Prediction: $87.4M. Actual Gross: $79.1M. Difference: $8.2M.

The Call

Prediction: $9.2M. Actual Gross: $17.1M. Difference: $7.9M.

Scary Movie 5

Prediction: $22.6M. Actual Gross: $14.2M. Difference: $8.4M.

The Great Gatsby

Prediction: $41.3M. Actual Gross: $50.1M. Difference: $8.7M.

The Purge

Prediction: $24.9M. Actual Gross: $34M. Difference: $9.1M.

Definitely didn’t give Halle Berry’s The Call or A Haunted House with Marlon Wayans enough credit at all. Gave the sputtering Die Hard franchise too much credit. And while I was $8M off on Oz the Great and Powerful, I was actually pretty pleased with that projection. This group is 10 out of the 68 predictions, or 15%.

Predictions within $10.1-$15 million

The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2

Prediction: $153.8M. Actual Gross: $141.1M. Difference: $12.7M.

Parental Guidance

Prediction: $17.7M. Actual Gross: $29.6M. Difference: $11.9M.

Mama

Prediction: $18.2M. Actual Gross: $32.1M. Difference: $13.9M.

Identity Thief

Prediction: $22.1M. Actual Gross: $34.6M. Difference: $12.4M.

Tyler Perry Presents Peeples

Prediction: $18.5M. Actual Gross: $4.6M. Difference: $13.8M.

Fast&Furious 6

Prediction: $106.8M. Actual Gross: $117M. Difference: $10.2M.

After Earth

Prediction: $39.1M. Actual Gross: $27.5M. Difference: $11.5M.

Clearly, Identity Thief and Mama hit bigger than I thought they would. And I was simply way off with Peeples, which I figured would have a nice opening due to Tyler Perry’s name in the title. Wrong. This group is 6 out of the 68 titles – 9%.

Predictions within $15.1-$20 million

Django Unchained

Prediction: $44.6M. Actual Gross: $64M. Difference: $19.4M.

The Hangover Part III

Prediction: $77.4M. Actual Gross: $62M. Difference: $15.3M.

Now You See Me

Prediction: $14.2M. Actual Gross: $29.3M. Difference: $15.1M.

Two titles here – or 3%. I failed the Christmas box office predictions and went way under. This is what screwed my Django projection. And The Wolf Pack were even softer than I expected.

Predictions off by over $20 million

Rise of the Guardians

Prediction: $53.8M. Actual Gross: $32.3M. Difference: $21.5M.

Les Miserables

Prediction: $47.1M. Actual Gross: $67.4M. Difference: $20.3M.

Star Trek Into Darkness

Prediction: $106.2. Actual Gross: $83.7M. Difference: $22.4M.

So the return of Kirk and Spock marks my most inaccurate prediction so far, but I don’t even feel bad about it because everyone went way over on this one. Les Miserables, like Django, is an example of underestimating a Xmas opener. And Rise of the Guardians flat out didn’t reach the levels of most animated titles, though it did hold up well in subsequent weekends. Three of 68 in this final category – 4%.

This means that of the 68 opening weekend predictions, I got 47% within $4 million or less of the actual gross. Within $7 million – the number is 69%. Within $10 million – I’m at 84%.

So there you have it. Draw your own conclusions. And if you’ve made it all the way through lengthy post, allow me to plug http://www.boxofficeace.com – a site I happily participate on where you (yes YOU) can make your own predictions!

Box Office Predictions: May 31-June 2

The post Memorial Day box office weekend sees the release of two new titles, the Will/Jaden Smith sci-fi pic After Earth and the caper film Now You See Me. Earlier this week, I wrote posts predicting both openings:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/27/after-earth-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/28/now-you-see-me-box-office-prediction/

My After Earth prediction of $39.1 million raises the following question: will it open #1 this weekend? Last holiday weekend saw the massive debut of Fast&Furious 6. Depending on how big it drops, it could retain the top spot. The previous five entries in the franchise all dipped a consistent 59-63% in their sophomore frames. It stands to reason that FF6 would experience a similar decline and may drop a tad more because it opened so huge.

The Hangover Part III had a very disappointing opening and its second weekend shouldn’t be too great either. The franchise has clearly run out of steam. The animated Epic had a solid opening last weekend and should experience the smallest decline of any title. And, finally, Star Trek Into Darkness will probably lose about half its audience in its third weekend.

With that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. After Earth

Predicted Gross: $39.1 million

2. Fast&Furious 6

Predicted Gross: $36 million (representing a drop of 65%)

3. Star Trek Into Darkness

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 50%)

4. Epic

Predicted Gross: $17.7 million (representing a drop of 47%)

5. The Hangover Part III

Predicted Gross: $17.1 million (representing a drop of 59%)

This would leave Now You See Me debuting at #6 with my predicted opening of $14.2 million. As always, check back over the weekend on the Facebook page for early returns and Sunday on the blog for final results.

Oscar History: 2002

2002 was a vast improvement over 2001 at the theaters and this was reflected in the lineup of Oscar nominations in the major categories. In my view, however, there were a number of worthy titles that were snubbed.

The Best Picture race went as planned with Rob Marshall’s Chicago taking the top prize. The musical garnered the love of the Academy and it leapfrogged the early favorite, Martin Scorsese’s Gangs of New York for top honors. Other nominees: Roman Polanski’s The Pianist, Stephen Daldry’s The Hours, and Peter Jackson’s The Lord of the Rings: The Two Towers. 

Other titles that I believe merited consideration: Alexander Payne’s About Schmidt and Spike Jonze’s Adaptation. And I would’ve given some thought to my favorite M. Night Shyamalan thrill-fest Signs, which I believe to be slightly superior to The Sixth Sense.

However, my favorite film of the year was Steven Spielberg’s Minority Report and I unquestionably would have included it.

While the Best Picture category winner was not a surprise – Best Director was. While the recipient of Picture and Director usually match, that was not expected in 2002. Rob Marshall’s Chicago won and he was nominated, but the smart money was on Martin Scorsese to win his first Directing Oscar for Gangs. Surprise, surprise. The winner called was Roman Polanski for The Pianist. Of course, Mr. Polanski was not in the auditorium to accept. If you don’t know why, Google his name and find out. Other nominees were Daldry for The Hours and Pedro Almodovar for Talk to Her. Peter Jackson was the odd man out for his work on the second Lord of the Rings entry.

Obviously, I would’ve had Spielberg on my list for Report. Even if you didn’t love the movie like I did, the direction was amazing.

The surprises continued in the Best Actor field. The two favorites were Daniel Day-Lewis for Gangs of New York and Jack Nicholson for About Schmidt. But The Pianist surprises continued when its relatively unknown star Adrien Brody took the statue… and memorably accepted the award by planting a long smooch on presenter Halle Berry. Other nominees: Nicolas Cage in Adaptation and Michael Caine in The Quiet American.

While nearly all major Chicago actors were nominated, Richard Gere missed the cut for his leading role. And I may have had Leonardo DiCaprio’s impressive work in another Spielberg pic, Catch Me If You Can.

The surprises stopped with Nicole Kidman, who won Best Actress for The Hours, as expected. Other nominees: Salma Hayek for Frida, Diane Lane in Unfaithful, Julianne Moore in Far From Heaven, and Renee Zellwegger in Chicago. 

A couple of other worthy names: Jennifer Aniston’s surprising and effective performance as a Midwestern housewife in The Good Girl and Jodie Foster’s fine work as a mother dealing with new home problems in Panic Room.

The Supporting Actor race would honor Chris Cooper for his work in Adaptation. Cooper won out over Ed Harris in The Hours, Paul Newman in Road to Perdition, John C. Reilly in Chicago, and Christopher Walken for Catch Me If You Can.

That’s a solid group of nominees there. I might have put in Ray Liotta for his menacing role in Narc, but no big complaints here.

Catherine Zeta-Jones would win Supporting Actress for her heralded work in Chicago. The other nominees were Kathy Bates in About Schmidt, Queen Latifah in Chicago, Julianne Moore in The Hours, and Meryl Streep in Adaptation.

Three other first-rate performances I would’ve thought about: Toni Collette in About a Boy, Hope Davis for About Schmidt, and Amanda Peet for Igby Goes Down.

In closing, 2002 was a year in which Chicago reigned supreme, but The Pianist provided some major surprises in other big categories.