Today on the blog I give the five actors that, at press time, I believe will be nominated for Best Actor at this year’s Oscars. In previous posts over the past week, I’ve predicted Actress and Supporting Actor and Actress. You can find those here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/04/early-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

Much like the Best Actress category (where I feel Cate Blanchett in Blue Jasmine and Sandra Bullock in Gravity will definitely be recognized), I see two surefire nominees for Best Actor. Steve McQueen’s slavery drama Twelve Years a Slave has received raves from the film festival circuit and it appears its star Chiwetel Ejiofor is in line for recognition. You may know Ejiofor for supporting roles in Inside Man or American Gangster or Love Actually, but this looks to be his breakout performance. A much more known actor is my second pick for a definite nomination: Robert Redford in All is Lost, in which the veteran performer plays a sailor stranded at sea. Like Slave, Lost has garnered raves at festivals, particularly for Redford. Shockingly, this would mark only the second acting nomination for him – 40 years after The Sting. 

Besides Ejiofor and Redford, everything is uncertain and there are plenty of actors competing for the remaining three slots. I have predicted Tom Hanks to receive a Supporting Actor nod for his role as Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks. He also appears a likely nominee for Paul Greengrass’ Somali pirate drama Captain Phillips. As mentioned in all other nomination posts, director David O. Russell gets his actors nominated (his last two pictures have featured seven nominees) and that could mean recognition for Christian Bale in American Hustle. Matthew McConaughey has yet to receive a nomination and he could get one for portraying an HIV positive man in Dallas Buyer’s Club. Hugh Jackman’s performance in the abduction drama Prisoners has been called career-best and he could receive his second nomination in as many years after the Les Miserables nod last year. Leonardo DiCaprio can’t be counted out for Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street, though his nomination may depend on how well the pic does with the Academy. Audiences and many critics have embraced Lee Daniels’ The Butler and star Forest Whitaker could certainly benefit. Veteran actor Bruce Dern’s performance in Alexander Payne’s Nebraska has garnered high praise. Idris Elba is in contention for playing Nelson Mandela in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom. Oscar Isaac may receive a nomination for the Coen Brothers Inside Llewyn Davis. Director Bennett Miller made Capote which got Philip Seymour Hoffman a golden statue in this category and Moneyball for which Brad Pitt was nominated. Miller’s new pic Foxcatcher could see Steve Carell getting his first nomination. However, at press time, it’s uncertain whether Carell will be touted for Actor or Supporting Actor. Benedict Cumberbatch plays Wikileaks founder Julian Assange in Bill Condon’s The Fifth Estate, though the pic has opened to mixed reviews over the past couple of days. There’s Ben Stiller in The Secret Life of Walter Mitty (which he directed) and Joaquin Phoenix going for his second nomination in a row with Spike Jonze’s Her. And there’s Michael Fassbender in Ridley Scott’s The Counselor which is possible though the actor is much more likely to be nominated for Supporting Actor in Twelve Years a Slave. 

So… there’s your contenders and there’s lots of ’em. As previously mentioned, I believe Ejiofor and Redford are in but the rest of the field could change quite a bit over the next many weeks until nomination time. Right now, here are my five predicted nominees:

BEST ACTOR

Chiwetel Ejiofor, Twelve Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Robert Redford, All is Lost

Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

 

I’ll be back with my predictions for Best Director and then Best Picture shortly!

On the blog this evening comes part 3 of my early 2013 Oscar Predictions. I’ve already done posts for Supporting Actor and Actress which can be found here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

We’ve still got Actor, Director, and Picture to go, but it’s the leading ladies tonight with my predictions for Best Actress. I would say at this early point in the race, we already have two definite nominees. First, Cate Blanchett for her critically lauded work in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine, which was released this summer. She pretty much became an instant shoo-in upon the picture’s release. Then there’s Sandra Bullock in Alfonso Cuaron’s outer space thriller Gravity. That pic has played at festivals already before its October release and her performance is said to be magnificent. This would mark Bullock’s second nomination after winning four years ago for The Blind Side.

After that things become uncertain. The film festival circuit has also elevated Judi Dench for her work in Philomena. This would mark the veteran performer’s seventh Academy nomination. Emma Thompson looks like a real possibility in Saving Mr. Banks, in which she plays “Mary Poppins” author P.L. Travers as she works with Walt Disney (Tom Hanks) on the making of the classic film. As I’ve mentioned in my Supporting Actor and Actress posts, director David O. Russell has a knack for getting his actors nominated. This bodes well for Amy Adams in American Hustle, though she could be competing with herself in Spike Jonze’s Her. Julia Roberts will be touted for lead in August: Osage County, though her costars Meryl Streep and Margo Martindale may receive more attention. The French romantic drama Blue Is the Warmest Colour won the Palme d’Or at Cannes including an award for its star Adele Exarchopoulos. The 19 year-old actress definitely has a shot. Both Naomi Watts in Diana (playing Princess Diana) and Nicole Kidman in Grace of Monaco (playing Princess Grace) are contenders, though I’m skeptical until we found out whether the movies are any good. Kate Winslet’s work in Jason Reitman’s Labor Day could be recognized.

BLOGGER’s UPDATE (09/10/13): I have revised my original predictions based on the film festival reaction for August: Osage County and the word that Meryl Streep is likely to campaigned in this category instead of Supporting Actress. Reaction to the film has led to me believing Meryl gets nominated here, so I’m taking Emma Thompson out for now and putting Streep in.

Bottom line: Blanchett and Bullock are in. The rest is unclear right now, but here’s how I see the five nominations at this juncture:

BEST ACTRESS

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Adele Exarchopoulos, Blue is the Warmest Colour

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

I’ll have my predictions up for Best Actor soon!

I have already made my early Best Supporting Actress predictions on the blog which you can find here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

We now move forward with Supporting Actor where I’ll list the possible nominees as I see ’em with my five predictions. Right now, there seems to be only one sure-fire nominee and that would be Michael Fassbender in Steve McQueen’s Twelve Years a Slave, which screened to raves at Telluride over the weekend. He appears to be in and should stay there. After that, it’s murky. Tom Hanks could possibly be nominated for lead Actor in Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips and in this category playing Walt Disney in Saving Mr. Banks. If Banks is well-regarded, his chances seem excellent. Matthew McConaughey is another potential double nominee. In lead Actor, his chances for November’s Dallas Buyer’s Club are high. However, his chances for either Mud or Wolf of Wall Street in this race could happen too. Speaking of Dallas Buyer’s Club, Jared Leto looks to have quite a juicy role in the picture and he’s on the radar. Jonah Hill is said to be the standout in Wolf of Wall Street and he could score his second nomination in two years after 2011’s Moneyball. Bennett Miller’s upcoming Foxcatcher is a head scratcher at press time. No one’s seen it. There’s no trailer. However, director Miller has had his last two pics (Capote and Moneyball) score nods for his cast. That means Mark Ruffalo or Channing Tatum could land nominations. The film’s star Steve Carell could be nominated here, too, but it’s unclear whether the studio will push him for Lead. Due to the uncertainty, I’m leaving them all off for now, but any one of them could return when I update predictions. Director David O. Russell is another filmmaker who gets his actors nominated and that could bode well for either Bradley Cooper or Jeremy Renner in American Hustle. Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity looks to be a shoo-in for Best Picture and probably Sandra Bullock for Actress and the love could certainly extend to George Clooney for his supporting role. John Goodman has been a respected actor for years but he’s never been noticed by the Academy. That could change with Inside Llewyn Davis from the Coen Brothers. Relative newcomer Daniel Bruhl is said to be a bright spot in Ron Howard’s upcoming Formula One racing pic Rush. Josh Brolin could be in the mix for his role in Jason Reitman’s Labor Day. Jake Gyllenhall is already being touted for a “career-best” performance in Prisoners. Javier Bardem looks to have a cool role in Ridley Scott’s The Counselor. Benedict Cumberbatch (who received positive notices this summer in Star Trek Into Darkness) could be recognized for August: Osage County. 

Bottom line: this race is very unpredictable right now, with the exception of Fassbender’s nomination. Here’s my predictions with a further prediction: this list is likely to change over the next four months.

BLOGGER’S NOTE (09/12/13): Now that I’ve predicted Tom Hanks will be nominated in the lead Actor category for Captain Phillips, I’m having a harder time putting him down in this category for Saving Mr. Banks. Therefore, I’m substituting Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher at press time.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR (TODD’S PREDICTIONS)

George Clooney, Gravity

Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years a Slave

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Mark Ruffalo, Foxcatcher

That’s all for now, but I’ll be back with Best Actress in short order.

Bottom line?

And now, beginning on the first day of September, comes my early Oscar predictions. The race for Academy gold has truly begun over the past few days with the Venice and Telluride Film Festivals in full swing. The Toronto Film Festival is just around the corner. That means a large number of Oscar hopefuls opening this fall are screening and reviews are coming out. Due to that, we already have a number of films that now seem likely to receive nominations in the Picture category and for performers as well.

I will begin with Supporting Actress before moving onto Supporting Actor, Actress, Actor, Director, and Picture. Let’s begin, shall we?

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

It has yet to screen anywhere, but August: Osage County (based on a well-known play) is in talks for a number of possible nominations, especially for Meryl Streep who plays the matriarch of a severely dysfunctional family. It would appear that her performance will likely be for Supporting, though it could change to the lead Actress category. She’s pretty much considered the greatest actress of all time and her inclusion here seems probable. For the same film, the nomination of Margo Martindale (a seasoned actress who’s popped up in supporting roles in numerous pictures) is more of a question mark. I believe that if the film resonates with audiences, her performance (said to be a highlight) could be nominated. Another likelihood is the nomination of Oprah Winfrey in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. The pic has caught on with audiences, her performance has received positive notices, and she’s one of the most famous people on the planet. At Telluride over the weekend, Steve McQueen’s Twelve Years a Slave screened and became an instant Oscar contender in numerous categories, including this one. The performance of newcomer Lupita Nyong’o is said to be fantastic and, at press time, I think she’s in. The rest of the race is wide open. Director David O. Russell has a knack for getting his actors nominated and Jennifer Lawrence could get a nod for American Hustle. Octavia Spencer (who won two years ago for The Help) is a strong possibility for Fruitvale Station. Cameron Diaz looks to have a juicy role in Ridley Scott’s The Counselor. Amy Adams has been nominated multiple times and her role in Spike Jonze’s Her could be recognized (though she will also be in the mix for lead in American Hustle). Naomie Harris plays Nelson Mandela’s wife in Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, but I’m not willing to put her in until the pic is screened. June Squibb is receiving good notices for Alexander Payne’s Nebraska, though Bruce Dern may receive the lions share of awards attention for that film. Same goes for Sally Hawkins’ work in Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine where lead Cate Blanchett will be touted the most. Blanchett herself is a contender in this category for George Clooney’s The Monuments Men, but once again she’ll probably get recognized for Best Actress in Jasmine. The crime thriller Prisoners with Hugh Jackman received raves at Telluride and Melissa Leo (winner three years ago for The Fighter) has been mentioned. The Coen Bros Inside Llewyn Davis should get nominations and that may extend to Carey Mulligan’s work. Same goes for Vanessa Redgrave in Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher, which nobody has seen yet (it doesn’t even have a trailer which makes predicting for it tough at the moment).

Whew. So there’s the layout. Like I said, lots of potential nominees. As of September 1st, however, here are my predictions for the category:

BLOGGER’s UPDATE (09/10/13): I have revised my original predictions based on the film festival reaction for August: Osage County and the word that Meryl Streep is likely to campaigned in Best Actress instead of this category. This means co-star Julia Roberts is likely to be campaigned for in this category and I’m taking Meryl out and putting Julia in. Furthermore, I no longer feel Margo Martindale gets nominated here and I’m substituting Naomie Harris as Winnie Mandela in the Mandela biopic.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS (TODD’S PREDICTIONS):

Naomie Harris, Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Lupita Nyong’o, Twelve Years a Slave

Julia Roberts, August: Osage County

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

And there you have it! I’ll be back with Supporting Actor soon enough…