Author: toddmthatcher

2013 Fall Movie Preview: Prisoners, Out of the Furnace, Labor Day

In tonight’s edition of my 2013 Fall Movie Preview, we have three drama/thrillers boasting big stars and Oscar hopes.

This Friday brings us Prisoners from Canadian director Denis Villeneuve. It stars Hugh Jackman as a father whose child is abducted and when he’s frustrated with the lack of progress in the investigation, he takes matters into his own hands. The film raised eyebrows when it screened at the Toronto Film Festival to rave reviews. In addition to some critics saying it was Jackman’s career-best work, the same was said for costar Jake Gyllenhall. The rest of the sterling supporting casts includes Paul Dano, Maria Bello, Melissa Leo, Terrence Howard, and Viola Davis.

Scott Cooper directed Jeff Bridges to a Best Actor Oscar for Crazy Heart and on November 27th comes his follow-up, the crime drama Out of the Furnace. This one has quite the impressive cast as well: Christian Bale, Casey Affleck, Woody Harrelson, Zoe Saldana, Forest Whitaker, Willem Dafoe, and Sam Shephard. This is one of two pics for Bale this fall in his post-Batman career with American Hustle coming out too. We’ll get to that one soon enough.

Jason Reitman is known for his dramedies Thank You for Smoking, Juno, Up in the Air, and Young Adult. His next feature, Labor Day, is said to be quite a departure. It stars Kate Winslet as a single mom who takes in an escaped convict played by Josh Brolin. Don’t expect too much comedy in this one, unlike Reitman’s previous work. The pic opened to a somewhat mixed reception on the film festival circuit, though Winslet and Brolin are in Oscar contention. Labor Day opens Christmas Day (naturally).

Stay tuned for my next installment of the fall movie preview coming to the blog soon!

Box Office Predictions: September 20-22

The critically acclaimed child abduction drama Prisoners with Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhall and the Chris Brown urban dance flick Battle of the Year both open this weekend. One of them could be an awards contender. I’ll leave you hanging as to which one.

You can find my prediction posts on each right here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/15/prisoners-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/15/battle-of-the-year-box-office-prediction/

Prisoners may find itself in a tight race with this weekend’s champ Insidious: Chapter 2 for the top spot. I’m predicting the Insidious sequel will have a large drop in its sophomore frame, which is normal for horror flicks. This should allow Prisoners to win the weekend. Of course, that’s barring a bigger than expected opening for Battle of the Year. Don’t reject the idea out of hand. Urban dance pics have a history of impressive debuts, but this one seems to be flying under the radar. Last weekend’s #2 The Family with Robert De Niro had a decent opening but should fall hard in its second weekend. The Butler and We’re the Millers should compete for the five spot with nearly identical grosses.

And with that, my best guess for this coming weekend’s top five:

1. Prisoners

Predicted Gross: $18.4 milion

2. Insidious: Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million (representing a drop of 60%)

3. Battle of the Year

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million

4. The Family

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. We’re the Millers

Predicted Gross: $3.8 million (representing a drop of 31%)

That’s all for now, folks! Updates will be posted on the Facebook page Saturday as grosses start to roll in with a final report Sunday on the blog.

Battle of the Year Box Office Prediction

Before you go automatically assuming Battle of the Year, this Friday’s breakdancing flick, will be a huge bomb, consider these facts. The following dance pics over the past few years that marketed toward a hip hop audience all opened between $15-$23 million: Save the Last Dance, Step Up, Step Up 2 the Streets, Step Up 3-D, Stomp the Yard, and You Got Served.

Not too shabby at all. Battle of the Year stars America’s sweetheart Chris Brown and Sawyer from “Lost” Josh Holloway. Oh Sawyer… call your agent. While there is certainly precedent for these types of pictures having robust openings, Battle of the Year could struggle. Last year’s Step Up Revolution had the weakest debut in that franchise with only $11 million, suggesting the genre could be fading.

My fellow estimators over at Box Office Ace have this averaged at only about a $7.5M opening. I’ll cut it a little more slack than that. Chris Brown does have his fans after all and a debut that low would easily mark the lowest in the genre in recent history. I’ll say it debuts right in line with the last Step Up flick and other similar titles like Honey and the Fame remake from 2009.

Battle of the Year opening weekend prediction: $10.3 million

For my prediction on the opening of Prisoners, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/15/prisoners-box-office-prediction/

Prisoners Box Office Prediction

It has already received considerable critical acclaim with reviewers saying it features career-best performances from its two stars and on Friday, we’ll see if the solid word of mouth brings Prisoners box office success.

The film stars Hugh Jackman and Jake Gyllenhall in a child abduction drama from Canadian filmmaker Denis Villeneuve. The supporting casts includes Paul Dano, Maria Bello, Melissa Leo, Viola Davis, and Terrence Howard. After screening at the Toronto Film Festival, critics hailed the work of Jackman and Gyllenhall and the picture itself. Prisoners may well benefit from being marketed toward adults after a summer of mostly teen and kid friendly fare. Even the first couple of weeks of the fall season have followed that pattern with Riddick and the Insidious sequel.

Will that translate to a huge opening? Probably not, but Prisoners could display impressive staying power if moviegoers encourage their peers to see it. I don’t believe it’ll reach the $20 million mark in its debut, though it certainly could. It could also see a rather disappointing opening the low teens, but I think high teens seems more probable.

Prisoners opening weekend prediction: $18.4 million

For my prediction on the opening of Battle of the Year, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/15/battle-of-the-year-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: September 13-15

Horror flicks continue to confound this box office prognosticator as Insidious: Chapter 2 had a massive opening this weekend with the second highest September debut of all time. The sequel to the 2011 sleeper hit took in $41 million, only $13 million less than the original did in its entire domestic run! I foolishly predicted the sequel would only earn $22.6 million. Oops. You can be assured that chapter 3 is being planned as we speak.

The Robert De Niro Mob comedy The Family also debuted above my estimate with $14.5 million. This is a pretty decent opening and bested my $11.2 million projection. However, with a troubling C Cinemascore grade, it will likely fall hard next weekend.

In its second weekend, Riddick dropped to third with $7 million, a bit below my $7.9M estimate. Lee Daniels’ The Butler took fourth with $5.5 million (in line with my $5.6M estimate) and We’re the Millers took the five spot with $5.4 million.

I incorrectly put the Spanish language comedy Instructions Not Included at fourth with $5.9 million. It fell harder in its third weekend that I figured with $4.2 million. Be sure to check the blog this evening for projections on next weekend’s two new entries, Prisoners and Battle of the Year.

 

Early Oscar Predictions: BEST PICTURE

And here we go!

After days on the blog predicting the races for Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress – we arrive at the big prize, Best Picture! In the last few years, the Academy has gone to a format that allows anywhere from five to ten pictures to be recognized. In the last two years, that number has been nine. For now – I’ll keep that number for those I’m predicting, though that’s certainly subject to change.

This newer format more or less guarantees that the five people nominated for Best Director will see their movies nominated for Best Picture. Therefore, that means I’m predicting Steve McQueen’s Twelve Years a Slave, Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity, J.C. Chandor’s All is Lost, Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher, and David O. Russell’s American Hustle are in. I am supremely confident in the nominations of two in particular: Twelve Years a Slave, which I’m also predicting for Director, Actor (Chiwetel Ejiofor), Supporting Actor (Michael Fassbender), and Supporting Actress (Lupita Nyong’o) and Gravity, which I’ve also predicted for Director, Actress (Sandra Bullock), and Supporting Actor (George Clooney).

Foxcatcher, the true-life drama starring Steve Carell, Mark Ruffalo, and Channing Tatum, is the only title I’m predicting that no one has seen on the film festival circuit or otherwise. That goes against a group of unseen titles that many others are currently predicting: Martin Scorsese’s Wolf of Wall Street, John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks, George Clooney’s The Monuments Men, Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, Spike Jonze’s Her and Ben Stiller’s The Secret Life of Walter Mitty. Any one of them could enter the fray once the word is out, but I’m simply not ready to include them at press time.

There are two titles already out that stand decent chances: Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine and Ryan Coogler’s Fruitvale Station, but I don’t think they’ll quite make it. Same goes for the following: Ron Howard’s Rush, Denis Vilenueve’s Prisoners, Justin Chadwick’s Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom, Jason Reitman’s Labor Day, Bill Condon’s The Fifth Estate, and Jean-Marc Vallee’s Dallas Buyer’s Club.

So what are the other four movies I’ve got in right now? Paul Greengrass’s Somali pirate thriller Captain Phillips looks to be a strong possibility. So does the family drama August: Osage County, which has opened to mixed festival reviews but whose A-list cast (Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts, Ewan McGregor, Benedict Cumberbatch) should help. The Coen Bros folk music pic Inside Llewyn Davis opened to raves on the festival circuit. And I believe the box office success of this summer’s Lee Daniels’ The Butler puts it in for now.

Will these predictions change? You bet they will! For now, though, here are my nine predictions for the biggest category of them all:

BEST PICTURE

All is Lost

American Hustle

August: Osage County

Captain Phillips

Foxcatcher

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Twelve Years a Slave

 

And there you have it! I’ll be updating my predictions for the six major races frequently on the blog so stay tuned!

2013 Fall Movie Preview: Insidious: Chapter 2, Carrie, All the Boys Love Mandy Lane

My 2013 Fall Movie Preview continues with a trio of horror flicks. This year, so far, has been a pretty decent one box office wise for the genre with hits including The Conjuring and Mama mixed in with some duds such as You’re Next and Dark Skies.

This Friday (the 13th) brings us Insidious: Chapter 2, the follow-up to 2011’s surprise hit. Stars Patrick Wilson and Rose Byrne return and the film looks likely to capitalize on the solid box office success of the original.

We’ve basically seen most 70s/80s horror classics remade over the past decade and the trend continues with Carrie. Instead of Sissy Spacek, we’ve got Chloe Grace Moretz and Julianne Moore plays the creepy mom in the role made famous by Piper Laurie. Like most of the recent remakes, this seems a little unnecessary but who knows? We could pleasantly surprised (I’m skeptical). It’s out October 18th.

Last and probably least is All the Boys Love Mandy Lane, which was actually shot in 2006 and stars Amber Heard. It’s already been seen at a number of film festivals and received mixed reviews. This is being distributed by the Weinstein Company in limited release and it doesn’t look to scare up too much business. It’s out (if you can find out) October 11th.

Interestingly, this will be the first late October season in a decade where we haven’t seen a Saw or Paranormal Activity movie. Instead, we get a flick that will probably be scary for others reasons: Jackass Presents Bad Grandpa

That’s all for now, friends! I’ll be back with plenty more autumn titles in short order.

 

Early Oscar Predictions: Best Director

Tonight on the blog, my predictions for the Best Director race in the 2013 Oscars. I’ve already covered all the acting races at this point. In fact, I even made some changes to the Best Actress and Supporting Actress races in those posts this evening. These are based on strong rumors that Meryl Streep will be campaigned for in the lead Actress race and not Supporting for August: Osage County. I cordially invite you to review all the acting predictions at the following links:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/07/early-oscar-predictions-best-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/04/early-oscar-predictions-best-actress/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/02/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actor/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/01/early-oscar-predictions-best-supporting-actress/

Moving forward, this Best Director race so far is tough to predict with two exceptions. I’m already highly confident that Alfonso Cuaron will be recognized for this October’s Gravity and Steve McQueen will be nominated for Twelve Years a Slave. Both pictures have taken the film festival circuit by storm and their work behind the camera seems virtually assured of being honored.

Speaking of film festivals, a number of them (Venice, Toronto, Telluride) have occurred over the past couple of weeks and that has helped the Oscar race take some shape. However, there are still a number of high-profile contenders that no one has seen yet. They are: John Lee Hancock’s Saving Mr. Banks, Martin Scorsese’s Wolf of Wall Street, David O. Russell’s American Hustle, George Clooney’s The Monuments Men, Ben Stiller’s The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, Spike Jonze’s Her, Ridley Scott’s The Counselor, and Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher .All are legit contenders in this race and for Best Picture. At this juncture, I’m only predicting only one of these eight directors to be nominated. That would be Russell, who’s been nominated for his last two features, The Fighter and Silver Linings Playbook. This might be a good time to explain why I’m not predicting Scorsese right now. Yes, he’s a legendary director who has been nominated for four of his last five pics. Based on the trailer, though, I’m not convinced Wolf of Wall Street is Oscar material. Don’t get me wrong… I’m probably looking forward to it more than any other movie this fall. Wolf looks like an extremely fun black comedy and I’m not sure that the Academy will recognize it. So (for now) Marty is off the list. As for the other unseen titles, any of them could be a factor and and their directors could make the list in future predictions.

This leaves the following directors vying for two more predicted slots: Paul Greengrass’s Captain Phillips, Lee Daniels Lee Daniels’ The Butler, J.C. Chandor’s All is Lost, Joel and Ethan Coen’s Inside Llewyn Davis, Alexander Payne’s Nebraska, Ron Howard’s Rush, John Wells’s August: Osage County, Woody Allen’s Blue Jasmine, Justin Chadwick’s Mandela: Long to Walk to Freedom, Ryan Coogler’s Fruitvale Station, and Denis Villeneuve’s Prisoners. Who knows? Their could be even more auteurs joining this lengthy list later.

All of these pictures have either been released or, in most cases, have played the festival circuit recently. Of particular note is Rush, Ron Howard’s Formula One racing pic that was met with terrific reviews. This might be a nice chance for the Academy to recognize Howard twelve years after he won the prize for A Beautiful Mind. For the fifth slot, I’m going a bit out on a limb and going with J.C. Chandor, director of the Robert Redford nautical drama/thriller All is Lost. I’ve gone back and forth wanting to include Greengrass, the Coen Brothers, and Daniels. The same can be said for Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher, but it’s tough to get a handle on that pic without even a trailer to view.

This is a race that will develop over the next couple of months I believe, with the exception of Cuaron and McQueen appearing to be locks.

BLOGGER’S NOTE (09/12/13): I have decided to make one change to my predictions and I am not taking Ron Howard out and substituting him with Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher.

BEST DIRECTOR (TODD’S PREDICTIONS)

J.C. Chandor, All is Lost

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Steve McQueen, Twelve Years a Slave

Bennett Miller, Foxcatcher

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Coming next… predictions for the biggest race of all, Best Documentary Short Subject! Actually, no, I’ll make my first predictions on the five to ten features that will be nominated for Best Picture. Stay tuned!

Box Office Predictions: September 13-15

Two new entries join the box office fray this weekend and they’re likely to open #1 and #2. They are horror sequel Insidious: Chapter 2 and the Robert De Niro Mob comedy The Family. You can find my predictions for both pictures here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/08/insidious-chapter-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/08/the-family-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m estimating Insidious opens with about twice as much business as The Family. As for holdovers, this weekend’s #1 Riddick had a pretty good debut with $19 million. However, it seems destined to suffer a large dropoff in its sophomore weekend. The surprise hit Spanish comedy Instructions Not Included and Lee Daniels’ The Butler should experience relatively small declines.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Insidious: Chapter 2

Predicted Gross: $22.6 million

2. The Family

Predicted Gross: $11.2 million

3. Riddick

Predicted Gross: $7.9 million (representing a drop of 57%)

4. Instructions Not Included

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million (representing a drop of 28%)

5. Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million (representing a drop of 34%)

I’ll have updates on the Facebook blog page Saturday with final results on the blog itself Sunday!

The Family Box Office Prediction

The Family may have a lot of talent behind it, but I’m pretty skeptical that it will do much business when it opens Friday. It’s got Robert De Niro once again spoofing his own image as a former Mob boss now in the witness protection program. This is the actor’s third time around with this type of role after the successful Analyze This and its much less successful sequel Analyze That. De Niro isn’t the only star repeating themselves in a Mob themed comedy. Michelle Pfeiffer, playing his wife, has done this before in 1988’s Married to the Mob. Tommy Lee Jones is involved as well, playing a CIA agent in charge of watching them.

Luc Besson is behind the camera and he’s certainly a well-regarded director with credits such as La Femme Nikita, The Professional, and The Fifth Element. Truth be told, this looks like a box office disappointment to me. Nothing about the trailers or TV spots is too interesting and this seems like the definition of a “wait for HBO” picture. It could surprise me, but I think The Family will struggle to find an audience. Older audiences may be ambivalent and younger moviegoers may be checking out the Insidious sequel instead.

The Family opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million

For my prediction on Insidious: Chapter 2, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/08/insidious-chapter-2-box-office-prediction/