Author: toddmthatcher

Machete Kills Box Office Prediction

Audiences were first introduced to Danny Trejo’s character Machete in 2007’s Grindhouse in one of the brilliant fake trailers. This led director Robert Rodriguez to helm Machete in 2010. That film opened to a fair $11.4 million and overall domestic gross of $26 million. Not great numbers, but it only cost $10.5 million to produce so a profit was made and a sequel was greenlit.

Now we have Machete Kills some three years later with Trejo and Jessica Alba returning and an all-star cast of new characters played by Mel Gibson, Antonio Banderas, Sofia Vergara, Lady Gaga, and Charlie Sheen (playing The President no less!). The budget has nearly doubled to $20 million.

Simply put, I don’t see much demand for a sequel. I believe Machete Kills will basically be a dud and will not match the opening weekend gross of its predecessor. There’s also plenty of competition out there with Gravity and Captain Phillips. Maybe I’m missing some pent up longing for violent Machete action, but I don’t think so.

Machete Kills opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million

For my Captain Phillips prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/captain-phillips-box-office-prediction/

Captain Phillips Box Office Prediction

Based on the true life 2009 Somali pirate hijacking, director Paul Greengrass tells the story of Captain Phillips, out Friday. With Tom Hanks in the title role, the pic received solid word of mouth from film festivals and sits at a strong 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. Greengrass is right in his wheelhouse with the subject matter having directed United 93 as well as The Bourne Supremacy and The Bourne Ultimatum.

Phillips is being touted as an Oscar contender for Picture, Director, and Actor (it would be Hanks’s first nomination in 13 years). What could perhaps hinder its debut is the performance of another Oscar hopeful, Alfonso Cuaron’s Gravity. That pic just set the October opening weekend record with $55 million and it may experience a relatively small decline in weekend number two.

Captain Phillips could fall anywhere from a $15 million debut to the high 20s, in my estimation. It should have strong legs after its opening based on critical reaction and word of mouth. For now, I’ll say it falls just shy of $20 million for an opening.

Captain Phillips opening weekend prediction: $19.1 million

For my Machete Kills prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/machete-kills-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: October 4-6

Alfonso Cuaron’s space thriller Gravity starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney has captured the attention of moviegoers and earned the title of best October opening of all time. The record was previously held by Paranormal Activity 3 with $52.5 million.

Defying even the high end of expectations, the pic grossed a terrific $55.6 million – well above my $38.7M prediction. With an A- Cinemascore grade, Gravity looks to have a healthy run in coming weeks and could stay #1 for at least one more weekend. The impressive opening is also a career-best for Bullock as her previous highest was this summer’s The Heat with $39.1 million. And it’s the best opening for Clooney, too – above the $42.8 million for (sadly) 1997’s Batman and Robin.

As expected, last weekend’s champ Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 fell to second place with $21.5 million – right on target with my $21.8M projection.

The noise made by Gravity unquestionably affected other films marketed towards adults… and in negative fashion. The weekend’s other newbie Runner Runner with Justin Timberlake and Ben Affleck failed to connect with a weak $7.6 million debut, below my $10.9M estimate. The pic ends the magical 2013 run of Timberlake, who’s been having a banner year on the music charts.

Rounding out the top five, Prisoners took fourth with $5.7 million (just below my $6.2M projection) while Ron Howard’s Rush fell further than I figured it would in its second weekend with only $4.4 million (I said $6.1M). While the Formula One racing pic was a hit with critics, audiences are clearly ambivalent.

At press time, numbers were not available for Metallica Through the Never, which I predicted would gross $2.8 million. I’ll update those numbers when I have them.

**Update: Metallica Through the Never managed only $682,000, well below my estimate. It seems the pic (marketed as an IMAX release) lost a lot of screens due to… you guessed it, Gravity.

Be sure to check the blog later today for individual predictions on next weekend’s openers, Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks and Robert Rodriguez’s sequel Machete Kills. 

Add a Word Ruin a Movie: A Twitter Phenomenon

Now here’s a hash tag game I can get involved with!

I noticed late last night that #AddaWordRuinaMovie seems to be exploding on Twitter. The concept is as simple as it sounds. Just add one word to a movie title and it takes on a completely different meaning… sometimes to hilarious results. Sometimes to disturbing ones. Here are some of the entries I came up with:

The Land Before Time Magazine

Tin Pimp Cup

State of Nancy Grace

What About Bob Barker?

Rudy Huxtable

American Gangster Boogie

Boogie Board Nights

Three Kings Mattresses

Don’t Say a Safety Word

There Will Be Blood Drives

The French Toast Connection

Training Bra Day

Batman Begins Kindergarten

New Colby Jack City

Badminton Face/Off

Minority Report Cards

And here are some personal favorites I’ve seen from others:

Schindler’s Grocery List

Rosemary’s Baby Daddy

The Tax Return of the Jedi

The Obama Care Bears Movie

Ferris Bueller’s Day Off Meds

After Birth of a Nation (wow)

Star Trek II: The Wrath of Chaka Khan

Breakfast Burrito at Tiffany’s

You’ve Got Hate Mail

The Sound of Nickelback Music

Bruno Mars Attacks!

Lord of the Nipple Rings

And there’s many, many, many, many more! Do yourself a favor and check this latest social media phenom yourself… and think of some of your own.

Oscar Predictions: Todd’s Second Take

It’s been a number of days since my first round of Oscar predictions and there’s been some movement since then. Time for a second update, my friends!

The biggest change is Bennett Miller’s drama Foxcatcher with Steve Carell, Mark Ruffalo, and Channing Tatum being postponed to 2014. I had it being nominated for Best Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor (Ruffalo). Added to that, I’ve changed my mind in every other category with the exception of Best Actor.

And with that, my second take on Oscar predictions in the six major categories:

PICTURE

All is Lost

American Hustle

August: Osage County

Captain Phillips

Gravity

Inside Llewyn Davis

Lee Daniels’ The Butler

Twelve Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

CHANGES: Foxcatcher out, The Wolf of Wall Street in

 

DIRECTOR

J.C. Chandor, All is Lost

Joel and Ethan Coen, Inside Llewyn Davis

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Steve McQueen, Twelve Years a Slave

David O. Russell, American Hustle

CHANGES: Bennett Miller for Foxcatcher out, Joel and Ethan Coen in

 

ACTOR

Chiwetel Ejiofer, Twelve Years a Slave

Tom Hanks, Captain Phillips

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club

Robert Redford, All is Lost

Forest Whitaker, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

CHANGES: None.

 

ACTRESS

Amy Adams, American Hustle

Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Sandra Bullock, Gravity

Judi Dench, Philomena

Meryl Streep, August: Osage County

CHANGES: Adele Exarchopoulos out for Blue is the Warmest Colour, Amy Adams in

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR

Bradley Cooper, American Hustle

Michael Fassbender, Twelve Years a Slave

James Gandolfini, Enough Said

Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street

Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club

CHANGES: George Clooney for Gravity and Mark Ruffalo for Foxcatcher out, Cooper and Gandolfini in

 

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Sally Hawkins, Blue Jasmine

Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle

Margo Martindale, August: Osage County

Lupita Nyong’o, Twelve Years a Slave

Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler

CHANGES: Julia Roberts for August: Osage County and Naomie Harris for Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom out, Martindale and Hawkins in

 

And there you have it! I’ll have a third update in the coming weeks!

Talk Show Hosts: A Movie History

At this year’s Oscars, there’s a very good chance that Oprah Winfrey will be nominated for Best Supporting Actress for her role in Lee Daniels’ The Butler. In that same category four years ago, Mo’Nique took home the statue for her work in another Lee Daniels drama, Precious. What do both of those women have in common? They are both former talk show hosts. Of course, Oprah has the distinction of having the most successful daytime talker of all time. Mo’Nique hosted “The Mo’Nique Show” on BET from 2009-2011.

This got me thinking about the rather high number of performers in film who parlayed their careers into the talk show circuit. In a number of these cases, this was done because that performer’s movie career wasn’t doing too well. In some cases, the results were positive. In others… well, not so much. Let’s take a look at some examples from both sides of the spectrum, shall we?

Positive Example: Jimmy Fallon

Mr. Fallon rose to prominence on “Saturday Night Live” before leaving the show to do what most successful SNL alum do: begin a film career. It didn’t turn out so well. Movies he headlined such as Fever Pitch and Taxi were financial failures. This led Fallon back to SNL producer Lorne Michaels when he took over the “Late Night” program from Conan O’Brien. And now Jimmy will be taking over for Jay Leno on “The Tonight Show” this February.

Negative Example: Chevy Chase

Another SNL alum who became famous on the program’s Weekend Update segment, Chase was a wildly popular movie star in the 1980s. Unfortunately, by the time the 1990s rolled around, his career was on the down slope. The FOX Network came calling and gave him his own 11:00PM talk show in 1993. “The Chevy Chase Show” failed miserably against his competition – Leno and Letterman. It was canceled after only five weeks.

Positive Example: Ellen DeGeneres

Ellen had already had a popular and groundbreaking sitcom, but when that program ended, her movie career never took off. Her one starring vehicle, Mr. Wrong in 1996, was a dud. DeGeneres would begin her own daytime chatfest, which has now been going for ten years strong.

Negative Example: Roseanne Barr

Like Ellen, Roseanne had a top-rated sitcom. Shortly after that show ended, she had her own daytime talker that never got off the ground and was canceled after struggling for two years. Her film career also never matched her TV sitcom days. 1989’s She-Devil costarring Meryl Streep, no less, was a critical and commercial disappointment.

Positive Example: Rosie O’Donnell

Ms. O’Donnell’s film career got off to a big start in the early 90s with A League of their Own and Sleepless in Seattle before hitting the brakes with duds like Exit to Eden. So, in 1996, she got herself a daytime show that ran for six successful seasons.

There are many other examples of film stars who have gone the talk show route. Whoopi Goldberg was a successful actress who can now be seen on “The View”. Chris Rock had an acclaimed HBO talk show and now can be seen palling around with the Grown Ups crew. Chelsea Handler is doing her E! hosting duties while popping up in This Means War and the upcoming The Familymoon with Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore.

Arsenio Hall just came back to talk show world after nearly two decades away. He first became famous as Eddie Murphy’s sidekick in Coming to America. 

Jon Stewart tried to have a film career with roles in Big Daddy and The Faculty before something called “The Daily Show” came around.

Dennis Miller is another SNL vet/Weekend Update anchor who had an HBO show after his movie career (Bordello of Blood anyone?) sputtered.

And then there’s the rare example of someone who started as a talk show host before becoming a major movie star. I give you Greg Kinnear. He started out hosting “Talk Soup” and then got a 1:30AM talk show following Conan on NBC in the 1990s. It didn’t last too long, though, because he was cast in Sydney Pollack’s Sabrina and two years later, was Oscar nominated for As Good As It Gets. Of course, “Talk Soup” became “The Soup” and is now hosted by Joel McHale, who’s appeared in Steven Soderbergh’s The Informant! and Seth MacFarlane’s Ted. Could he be the next talk show host turned big screen star?

And finally, we have Bill Maher, who hosted ABC’s “Politically Incorrect” and now HBO’s “Real Time”. However, people who really know their movie history might recall his starring role in 1991’s Pizza Man. No… seriously. This is for real.

Box Office Predictions: October 4-6

Alfonso Cuaron’s critically acclaimed sci-fi flick Gravity starring Sandra Bullock and George Clooney should easily open at the #1 spot this weekend. I’m not expecting a whole lot of out the weekend’s other newbies, Runner Runner with Justin Timberlake and Ben Affleck and the concert film Metallica Through the Never. You can find my individual prediction posts on all three here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/gravity-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/runner-runner-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/metallica-through-the-never-box-office-prediction/

As for holdovers, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 came in well below my projection, grossing $34 million in its debut. A sophomore frame drop in the mid-30s seems likely while last weekend’s #2 and #3 Prisoners and Rush should fall in the high 30s-low 40s. With a debut on only approximately 650 screens, the Metallica pic should open well outside the top five.

And with that, my estimates for this coming weekend’s top five pics:

1. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $38.7 million

2. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

Predicted Gross: $21.8 million (representing a drop of 36%)

3. Runner Runner

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million

4. Prisoners

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

5. Rush

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)

I’ll have a Saturday update on the blog’s Facebook page with final results Sunday!

Metallica Through The Never Box Office Prediction

It’s not just pop stars and boy bands that get concert films as Metallica Through the Never opens in wide-ish release this Friday. The pic features the legendary rockers performing while a subplot stars Chronicle actor Dane DeHaan as a roadie. It sounds like an interest concept for a movie and, so far, critical reaction has been very positive.

Still, it’s opening on a small 650 screens and this is certainly an example of a pic which will have a niche audience… namely, die-hard Metallica fans. I don’t see it getting much past the $3 million opening mark and I’ll say it doesn’t quite get there.

Metallica Through the Never opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million

For my prediction on Gravity, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/gravity-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Runner Runner, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/runner-runner-box-office-prediction/

 

Runner Runner Box Office Prediction

The “Suit&Tie” man and the future Batman team up for Runner Runner from Lincoln Lawyer director Brad Furman, opening Friday. Justin Timberlake is having about the best year you can imagine on the music charts and Ben Affleck saw his directorial effort Argo win Best Picture at the Oscars. He went on to receive loads of publicity (not all positive) when he was cast as Batman in the upcoming summer 2015 pic.

While this thriller set in the world of online poker certainly has famous faces populating it, I’m not sure that’ll translate to good box office. 20th Century Fox is certainly hoping the film’s gross “mirrors” JT’s music popularity, but the studio may want to “take back the night” they decided to open this against Gravity. That film will likely “TKO” Runner Runner at the multiplexes. The pic has received mostly negative reviews so far and I simply don’t see it gaining much traction.

Let’s get to the prediction before I figure out a way to incorporate “Seniorita” into a bad pun, shall we?

Runner Runner opening weekend prediction: $10.9 million

For my prediction post on Gravity, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/gravity-box-office-prediction/

For my Metallica Through the Never prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/metallica-through-the-never-box-office-prediction/

Gravity Box Office Prediction

It’s got an incredible 98% rating on Rotten Tomatoes so far. It features Oscar winners Sandra Bullock and George Clooney. It’s directed by visionary filmmaker Alfonso Cuaron. The guy who’s directed the two top grossing pictures of all time, James Cameron, says it’s brilliant. The film is already being mentioned as not only being nominated for Best Picture, but possibly winning it.

This Friday comes Gravity, the eagerly awaited lost in space pic that seems primed for a healthy debut and a nice run in subsequent weekends. How big could it open? Well, it’s got a few things in its favor. I would imagine a lot of moviegoers will choose to see it in 3D Imax where tickets prices will be higher. Gravity has a brief 90 minute run time which allows more showings per theater.

The figure $40 million has been thrown around for a debut and that is certainly possible. I’m predicting it’ll get mighty close to that figure, but not quite reach it. Still, Gravity should enjoy smallish declines weekend to weekend if the critical and awards buzz translates to audience members.

Gravity opening weekend prediction: $38.7 million

For my Runner Runner prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/runner-runner-box-office-prediction/

For my Metallica Through the Never prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/09/29/metallica-through-the-never-box-office-prediction/