Box Office Predictions: October 18-20

The horror remake Carrie, the Stallone/Schwarzenegger action pic Escape Plan, and the Wikileaks drama The Fifth Estate all join the box office fray this weekend. You can find my predictions on all three at these links:

Will any of them have any enough firepower to unseat Gravity from the #1 spot? As I see it, only Carrie stands a chance. However, I’m only putting it at a low 20s opening and that should not be enough to keep Alfonso Cuaron’s space phenomenon from the #1 perch for a third weekend. Captain Phillips with Tom Hanks scored a solid $25 million opening this past weekend and with an A Cinemascore grade, its second weekend decline should be small.

Based on my prediction for The Fifth Estate, it should open at #6 while Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 stays in the top five. And, with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $29.7 million (representing a drop of 31%)

2. Carrie

Predicted Gross: $22.4 million

3. Captain Phillips

Predicted Gross: $18.5 million (representing a drop of 28%)

4. Escape Plan

Predicted Gross: $10.1 million

5. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

Predicted Gross: $9.3 million (representing a drop of 32%)

I’ll have an update posted Saturday on the blog’s Facebook page with a final report Sunday on the blog!

The Fifth Estate Box Office Prediction

The Fifth Estate stars Benedict Cumberbatch (seen this summer in a fine performance as the villain in Star Trek Into Darkness) as Wikileaks founder Julian Assange. From Gods and Monsters and Dreamgirls director Bill Condon, Estate was looked at as a potential awards contender before it screened at some recent film festivals. The result? It sits at a weak 44% on Rotten Tomatoes as many critics were not impressed with what they saw.

Media news stories regarding Assange have been prevalent in recent years and it could help Estate‘s performance. Honestly though, this is the type of picture that greatly would’ve benefited from strong reviews which fuels Oscar buzz. It didn’t turn out that way. The pic is marketed toward an adult crowd who still have Gravity and Captain Phillips in the multiplex. Add it all up and I see a fairly muted debut for this film.

The Fifth Estate opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million

For my Carrie prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/carrie-box-office-prediction/

For my Escape Plan prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/escape-plan-box-office-prediction/

Escape Plan Box Office Prediction

There was a time when an action flick starring Sylvester Stallone and Arnold Schwarzenegger would have been one of the most eagerly anticipated releases of the year. Those years were about 1985-1995.

Times have changed. And you need look no further than earlier this year for evidence of that. In January, Ah-nuld’s comeback vehicle The Last Stand sputtered with a terrible $6.2 million opening. One month later, the news was even worse for Sly when Bullet to the Head managed only a $4.5 million debut.

Will putting the aging action stars together make a difference? Probably not much of one. The trailers for the prison flick Escape Plan are nothing special. Then there’s the competition factor. Younger moviegoers likely have no desire to see these two guys together anyway and might be preoccupied with Carrie. Older moviegoers may be busy catching Gravity in its third weekend or Captain Phillips in its second.

If you added up to opening weekends of their last two pics, that would get you to $10.7 million. And that may be about where Escape Plan ends up.

Escape Plan opening weekend prediction: $10.1 million

For my Carrie box office prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/carrie-box-office-prediction/

For my The Fifth Estate prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/the-fifth-estate-box-office-prediction/

Carrie Box Office Prediction

2013 marks the first time in a long time that no horror movie prefaced with Saw or Paranormal Activity sees an October debut. Instead, the only genre flick meant to capitalize on Halloween month is Carrie, which I suppose was the inevitable remake of Brian De Palma’s 1976 scare fest.

Based on Stephen King’s first novel, the ’76 version earned Oscar nominations for Sissy Spacek and Piper Laurie. This time around it’s Kick-Ass star Chloe Grace Moritz and Julianne Moore taking over the lead roles. The remake was originally set to debut in March before it was pushed back.

One big question keeps popping up in my mind here: do audiences really want to see a Carrie remake? The original is a genre classic. Yet unlike the remakes of Friday the 13th or Halloween or A Nightmare on Elm Street, there was never a franchise spawned from it to keep it constantly in the public’s mind. Actually there was a “sequel” in 1999 called The Rage: Carrie 2 that earned a weak $17 million domestically. The fact that no horror flick opens this month could certainly help and, frankly, horror movies often open much bigger than people like me say they will.

However, I don’t sense much excitement for this one. The familiarity with the original and the October release date should guarantee it a $20 million plus opening (if it falls below that, it’ll be considered a major letdown). I don’t think it’ll get much over that number though and it will likely fade quickly.

Carrie opening weekend prediction: $22.4 million

For my Escape Plan prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/escape-plan-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Fifth Estate, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/13/the-fifth-estate-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: October 11-13

Gravity continues to defy expectations as it had a remarkable hold in its second weekend. The Alfonso Cuaron space thriller with Sandra Bullock (whose Oscar buzz for this continues to grow) and George Clooney dipped only 21% in the sophomore frame with $44.3 million. This is above my $33.4M projection. Gravity is not just a hit… it’s turning into a phenomenon. In just ten days, it’s made $123 million. An eventual domestic gross of $250 million is not out of the question. To put it in perspective, the pic grossed more in its second weekend that I thought it would make with its opening.

Captain Phillips starring Tom Hanks provided a strong hit for the actor, who hasn’t seen many in the last half decade. Phillips debuted with $26 million, north of my $19.1M estimate. With a terrific A Cinemascore grade, expect this Captain to do well in subsequent weeks as its Oscar buzz also continues to build.

In third place in its third weekend, Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 took in $14.2 million, right on target with my $14.3M projection. The animated sequel has earned a sturdy $78 million and looks like a safe bet to cross the century mark.

Landing with a thud in fourth place is Machete Kills. The Robert Rodriguez sequel starring Danny Trejo, Jessica Alba, Lady Gaga, Mel Gibson, and many more couldn’t capitalize on its star power as it made an awful $3.7 million. This is well below my what I thought was a meager $7.2 million estimate.

In the five spot was the bomb Runner Runner with Justin Timberlake and Ben Affleck which also made $3.7 million in week #2, right in line with my predicted $3.5M. Runner has made only $14 million in ten days and should struggle to reach $20M domestic.

Be sure to check the blog as the day rolls on as my predictions for next weekend’s trio of newbies comes in: the horror remake Carrie, the Stallone/Schwarzenegger action pic Escape Plan, and the Wikileaks drama The Fifth Estate.

You Could See That Pierre Did Truly Love The Mademoiselle: My Blog Turns 1 Years Old!

It was a Thursday autumn evening one year ago when I was sitting at my computer and on a snap decision, I said to myself, “Screw it – I’m starting a movie blog. Right now.”

I had thought about it before, but obviously never acted on the notion. I knew two things: I seriously love movies. And I seriously love writing about them. That’s all I knew. I had no clue – none – on that Thursday night what the blog would be… other than it would be about movies. I wrote my inaugural post quickly and titled it My Love of Movies. This is what I wrote moments after that snap decision entered my head:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2012/10/11/my-love-of-movies/

That same night, I wrote my second post, which was my first entry in my Movie Perfection series. This one is about 1995’s Seven. I have said before that the Movie Perfection posts are my very favorite to write:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2012/10/11/movie-perfection-the-final-act-of-seven/

Since then my examples of Movie Perfection has expanded to a Raquel Welch poster leading Tim Robbins to glorious freedom in The Shawshank Redemption. The brilliantly edited sequence in Moneyball where we hear the crack of a baseball bat that signals validation for Brad Pitt’s character. Christian Bale hilariously turning into a music critic as he extols the virtues of Genesis, Huey Lewis, and Whitney Houston in American Psycho. A vehicle full of rockers and groupies coming together to the sound of Elton John’s “Tiny Dancer” in Almost Famous. The birth of Melissa McCarthy’s movie stardom as she tells Kristin Wiig to stop blaming the world for her problems in Bridesmaids. A letter written by Bradley Cooper to Jennifer Lawrence expressing his love for her in Silver Linings Playbook. An absolutely stunningly beautiful and emotional animated montage that chronicles a couple’s life together in Pixar’s Up.

One year ago, it’s hard to describe how terrific that evening was as I began the blog. Those who know me know my passion for film and writing. The fact that it took so long to bring that passion to a blog confounds me now. What took so damn long? Oh well – the point is, it exists now. And truth be told – I cannot imagine it not existing now.

I know it may sound cheesy, but it really does mean a lot to me that this blog has people reading it. Honestly, I can love doing it (and I do), but what’s the point if no one reads the damn thing?

A year ago in that first My Love of Movies post, I described the sense of wonder I experienced when viewing Pulp Fiction on the big screen for the first time. It’s what you hope for every time you go to the theater. Pulp Fiction is filled with moments that reiterate to me why I love movies. One scene is the famous John Travolta/Uma Thurman dance scene set to a rockin Chuck Berry tune. It is yet another example of Movie Perfection, as is nearly everything Quentin Tarantino does. I began this blog discussing the unforgettable title credit sequence set to Dick Dale’s “Misirlou” in Pulp Fiction. A year later, it comes full circle with that fantastic dance scene and Chucky Berry.

As I sit here on another Thursday autumn evening a year later, I am thankful for snap decisions. Mostly, I’m thankful to you for rewarding my snap decision. I started this little blog on a whim and truly wasn’t sure if I would love doing it or not. That is no longer a question in my head. It goes to show you never can tell. There’s a great lyric in that Chucky Berry song where Vincent Vega and Mia Wallace dance and that serves as the title of this anniversary post. “You Could See That Pierre Did Truly Love The Mademoiselle.” In this instance, I’m Pierre. This blog is The Mademoiselle. The readers of this blog are The Mademoiselle, too. Thank you.

Movie Blog One-Year Anniversary: My Top 10 Most Read Posts

This Friday, October 11th – my little movie blog turns a year old. Nearly 400 blog posts later, it felt like time to post my Top 10 Most-Read Posts since the site’s inception.

A couple of notes: back in the spring I began doing individual box office prediction posts on each and every wide release movie coming out. This has driven up my readership as you’ll see by several of the entries in the top ten. Of course, my #1 most-read is technically Homepage/Archives, but this is dedicated to which posts have seen the most eyeballs. Here you go:

10. Iron Man 3 Box Office Prediction

It stands to reason that the most-read box office prediction posts are the most popular flicks and Iron Man 3 is currently the top grossing pic of 2013. How was my prediction? I said $172.4 million. It made $174.1 million. Not too shabby.

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/04/28/iron-man-3-box-office-prediction/

9. Pacific Rim Box Office Prediction

This Guillermo del Toro summer flick was a real question mark as to how it would perform which likely helped the high readership. I predicted it would earn $39.7 million in its opening and it made $37.2 million. Once again, not too shabby.

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/07/pacific-rim-box-office-prediction/

8. Box Office Predictions: January 4-6

Why this particular weekend prediction post is this high is beyond me. The general full weekend prediction posts usually have decent readership, but this one was much greater. On this particular weekend, I shortchanged the opening of the new Texas Chainsaw flick.

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/01/02/box-office-predictions-january-4-6/

7. The Wolverine Box Office Prediction

Like most prognosticators, I went over on The Wolverine with a $67.4 million opening estimate. Oops. It only made a disappointing $53.1 million.

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/07/21/the-wolverine-box-office-prediction/

6. After Earth Box Office Prediction

Just as the mega-blockbusters are well viewed, so are the mega-bombs. For instance, my prediction for colossal dud R.I.P.D. was greater than many pics that did quite well. This is no more evident than in my After Earth post which marked a huge box office disappointment for Will Smith. I said it would debut with $39.1 million. It managed only $27.5 million.

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/27/after-earth-box-office-prediction/

5. Oz The Great and Powerful Box Office Prediction

The biggest hit of spring 2013 received an $87.4 million debut prediction from yours truly and it went a bit under that with $79.1 million. Still, it was a massive hit.

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/03/04/oz-the-great-and-powerful-box-office-prediction/

4. The Netflix Effect and House Cards

I wrote this post just as I was getting into watching Netflix’s groundbreaking political show with Kevin Spacey. And apparently I’m not the only one who loved the show…

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/02/04/the-netflix-effect-and-house-of-cards/

3. Movie Perfection: “I Wrote That A Week Ago.”

Of all the posts in the Top 10, this one surprises me the most. I’ve written a number of entries in my Movie Perfection series and they’re among the most fun to write. This post outlining the terrific final scene in Silver Linings Playbook is by far the most popular.

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/06/movie-perfection-i-wrote-that-a-week-ago/

2. Man of Steel Box Office Prediction

There was a lot of chatter about just how well this franchise reboot would perform and that may have helped it become my most-viewed prediction post so far. I predicted a $124.3 million debut and it made a little under at $116.6 million.

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/06/09/man-of-steel-box-office-prediction/

1. The 007 Files: My Ranking Of All 23 James Bond Movies

From late December through March, I watched the entire series of James Bond pictures (23 of ’em) in order from Dr. No to Skyfall. I wrote separate blog posts on each and every one. When I was finished, I ranked all 23 in order of my preference. It was a blast to do. And my readers rewarded the journey with my most-viewed post in the blog’s first year.

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/02/16/the-007-files-my-rankings-of-all-23-james-bond-movies/

So there you have it! As always, I can’t thank you enough for reading my stuff and I look forward to year 2!

What’s Your Favorite Horror Movie?

If you’re like me, well I’m sorry. However, if so, the month of October means it’s time to break out the horror flicks. There’s something about Halloween approaching and the changing fall weather that makes a scary flick even more desirable to watch.

So naturally I’m putting up a poll where you can name your favorite fright pic of all time. I’ve provided 15 choices, but feel free to add your own. Vote away readers!

Box Office Predictions: October 11-13

This coming weekend, Tom Hanks as Captain Phillips and the star-studded sequel Machete Kills open and try to take down the box office juggernaut that is Gravity. You can find my individual posts on both new pics here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/captain-phillips-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/machete-kills-box-office-prediction/

I seem to be going lower than most prognosticators so far on Captain Phillips. I’m sticking with my prediction and believe it will suffer small declines in future weekends. As for Machete Kills, I’m not expecting much.

Gravity should hold onto the #1 spot and have a fairly small decline. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2 is likely to experience a drop in its third weekend in the low-30s. The Justin Timberlake/Ben Affleck bomb Runner Runner should hang around in the top five but suffer a sizable fall from its already weak opening weekend debut.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Gravity

Predicted Gross: $33.4 million (representing a drop of 40%)

2. Captain Phillips

Predicted Gross: $19.1 million

3. Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs 2

Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 32%)

4. Machete Kills

Predicted Gross: $7.2 million

5. Runner Runner

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million (representing a drop of 55%)

I’ll have updates this weekend on the blog as the numbers roll in!

Machete Kills Box Office Prediction

Audiences were first introduced to Danny Trejo’s character Machete in 2007’s Grindhouse in one of the brilliant fake trailers. This led director Robert Rodriguez to helm Machete in 2010. That film opened to a fair $11.4 million and overall domestic gross of $26 million. Not great numbers, but it only cost $10.5 million to produce so a profit was made and a sequel was greenlit.

Now we have Machete Kills some three years later with Trejo and Jessica Alba returning and an all-star cast of new characters played by Mel Gibson, Antonio Banderas, Sofia Vergara, Lady Gaga, and Charlie Sheen (playing The President no less!). The budget has nearly doubled to $20 million.

Simply put, I don’t see much demand for a sequel. I believe Machete Kills will basically be a dud and will not match the opening weekend gross of its predecessor. There’s also plenty of competition out there with Gravity and Captain Phillips. Maybe I’m missing some pent up longing for violent Machete action, but I don’t think so.

Machete Kills opening weekend prediction: $7.2 million

For my Captain Phillips prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/10/06/captain-phillips-box-office-prediction/

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this:

Rate this: