Like Johnny Depp before him this year, another major leading man from the past two decades hits the half century mark. Brad Pitt is 50 today with three Oscar nominations behind him and eleven pictures that have grossed over $100 million domestically. He’s worked with a number of directorial giants in his filmography: Ridley Scott, Quentin Tarantino, David Fincher, Barry Levinson, Tony Scott, the Coen Brothers, Steven Soderbergh, and Terry Gilliam. Just this year, Mr. Pitt had the biggest hit of his career with World War Z and has a supporting role in 12 Years a Slave, this year’s Oscar frontrunner.
If I had to create a top five movies he’s appeared in – it would probably include True Romance, Seven, 12 Monkeys, Fight Club, and Inglourious Basterds. In honor of Mr. Pitt’s 50 years, I ask you:
As 2013 comes to a close, there is little doubt that Gore Verbinski’s The Lone Ranger will be considered the biggest flop of the year. Stories abounded about production delays and problems. Journalists had a field day writing about its bloated budget (said to be at least $250 million) and the end of the box office dominance of star Johnny Depp. The pic’s failure to meet financial expectations is undeniable as it managed only $89 million domestically. For the majority of people who even casually follow the film biz, you’ve probably read nothing positive about The Lone Ranger.
Now that I’ve seen it, I will happily report that there are some positive things to say about this movie. Of course, it’s not all positive. Far from it. Based on an iconic 1930s radio show that later turned into TV series and films, the 2013 version is given the Gore Verbinski/producer Jerry Bruckheimer treatment. In other words, it’s given the Pirates of the Caribbean treatment.
And that means Johnny Depp as Tonto, the sidekick of John Reid aka The Lone Ranger (Armie Hammer). The Western is mostly set in 1869 (it’s told in flashback by Tonto when he’s a very old man) and Reid is a dignified attorney turned masked vigilante after his brother and his team of Texas Rangers are gunned down. The culprits are led by outlaw Butch Cavendish (William Fichtner). Comanche Indian Tonto has his own reasons to help his Ranger partner as seeks to bring justice to those responsible for killing his tribe when he was a child.
Along the way, we get a fairly generous helping of high-octane action sequences and a lot of humorous banter between the two leads. So does it work? Sometimes it does. Sometimes it doesn’t. And a lot of The Lone Ranger‘s effectiveness lies with its performers. Critics and journalists seemed to have their knives sharpened for Depp by the time this premiered. In some respects, I can understand why. It was ten years ago that Mr. Depp became a box office sensation with Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl. What set that pic apart for Depp (after a film career that was already terrific though lacking in hits) was the thrill of seeing a truly great actor bring his glorious quirkiness into a blockbuster setting. Now it’s unfortunately begin to feel a bit old hat. It hasn’t helped that the pictures he’s chosen simply aren’t on the original Pirates popcorn level. This holds true for Depp as Quirky Mad Hatter in Alice in Wonderland, Quirky Vampire in Dark Shadows, Quirky Captain Sparrow in the subpar Pirates sequels, and yes, as Quirky Tonto. Almost as if to accentuate my point, there’s even one moment in this film when Depp literally kicks a dead horse.
That said, Depp’s Tonto has his share of chemistry with Hammer’s Lone Ranger. Mr. Hammer became known to filmgoers in not one, but two roles in David Fincher’s The Social Network. There are moments here when his comedic timing is off, but he mostly pulls off a rather unchallenging role.
As the villain, Fichtner doesn’t have much to do except look dirty. Indeed his creepiest role shall remain the police officer/Amway-type distributor in Doug Liman’s Go. Alas Fichtner turns out to not be the film’s only baddie. That reveal is meant to come as a surprise, but you’ll likely see it coming from a mile away. When an Oscar-nominated actor is cast in a part that seems pointless for two-thirds of the running time, he’s probably gonna turn out bad. If you’re interested in finding out who that talented actor is, I’ll let you look it up. Other familiar faces in The Lone Ranger include Helena Bonham-Carter in a glorified cameo as a brothel owner, James Badge Dale as the slain brother ranger, and Ruth Wilson as his widow who may have married the wrong brother.
Director Verbinski helmed the first three Pirates features and a complaint with them is a complaint here: the movie seems bloated and its 150 minute runtime often seems unnecessary. Depp has his moments. Even though we’ve seen this bag of tricks from him before, there’s no doubt Depp has impeccable timing when it comes to comedy and there are ample opportunities for him to display it.
Ultimately, The Lone Ranger mostly plods amiably for about two hours with some decent action and passable chemistry between its leads. However, it also features major shifts in tone that range from slapstick to more serious business when it comes to the relationships between settlers and Native Americans. Due to that, Ranger frequently feels like a different movie from scene to scene. For all those reasons, the picture often feels like a misfire, albeit an often entertaining one.
And then we get the climactic train sequence. Or, better yet, trains (plural) sequence as our main characters jump from rapidly moving locomotive to another to try and save the day. We as an audience are programmed to expect an impressive all-out action/adventure fest in the final moments of something like this. And I’ll be damned if this one isn’t really impressive. And I’m talking impressive in a way that makes the first two hours seem worth sitting through – flaws and all.
That said, I can’t ignore that most of The Lone Ranger doesn’t work very well. It’s not anywhere near as bad as its reputation though.
As the Christmas season approaches, four high profile pictures enter the marketplace with another five scheduled on Christmas Day. This weekend it’s Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues, American Hustle, Saving Mr. Banks, and Walking with Dinosaurs.
You can read my individual prediction posts on each here:
If Anchorman 2 were to come in quite a bit below my projection, it could potentially face a battle with this weekend’s champ The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug for the #1 spot. However, I do believe Ron Burgundy and company will prevail. Last year in this same weekend, The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey fell 56% from weekend #1 to #2 and I expect the roughly the same result for Smaug. As for the other three new entries, you’ll notice there’s only a $3.5 million difference between what I believe they’ll debut at. Therefore, these films could easily fluctuate between spots 3-5. Also if any of these newbies were to come in below my projections, it could allow Disney’s Frozen to remain in the top five. Got all that? We shall see how it shakes out, but here’s my predictions for this weekend’s top five:
1. Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues
Predicted Gross: $41.9 million ($61.2 million Wednesday to Sunday)
2. The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug
Predicted Gross: $31.5 million (representing a drop of 57%)
3. American Hustle
Predicted Gross: $20.5 million
4. Walking with Dinosaurs
Predicted Gross: $18.9 million
5. Saving Mr. Banks
Predicted Gross: $17.1 million
As always, I’ll have an update on the blog’s Facebook page Saturday with final results on the blog Sunday.
For some of the little brothers who had to attend Disney’s Frozen with their little sisters, this weekend’s Walking with Dinosaurs could provide an opportunity for revenge.
Based on a BBC miniseries, this animated tale will be shown in 2D and 3D and its concept is pretty simple… CG dinosaurs, dude. Distributed by 20th Century Fox, the studio is certainly hoping Dinosaurs appeals to family audiences over the holiday frame. It’s worth noting that Frozen is still making money, but it’s really the only competition this title faces with the possible exception of Saving Mr. Banks.
Animated features are often difficult to predict and Walking with Dinosaurs is no exception. It doesn’t have the pedigree of a Pixar behind it, but it’s trailers have been decent. I would think many youngsters interested in dinosaurs would be pressuring the ‘rents for a weekend trip to this one.
Walking with Dinosaurs has a decent shot at opening at #3 behind the Anchorman and Hobbit sequels. It could open as big as high 20s in my estimation (with a reported $85M budget, the studio would love that). Still I cannot shake the feeling that high teens to low 20s is more probable and that’s where I’m going prediction wise.
Walking with Dinosaurs opening weekend prediction: $18.9 million
For my Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues prediction, click here:
With Oscar buzz, an all-star cast, and a hot director – American Hustle bursts into theaters this Friday. It also faces stiff competition from the Anchorman sequel and another awards contender Saving Mr. Banks.
Hustle is the latest project from David O. Russell, who’s last two directorial features have led to Best Picture nominations, seven acting nominations, and three victories. Those films were 2010’s The Fighter and 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook. This crime drama/comedy features alum from both of those pictures – Christian Bale and Amy Adams from Fighter and Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, and Robert De Niro from Silver Linings Playbook. Double Oscar nominee Jeremy Renner is also part of the gang.
With an impressive 95% on Rotten Tomatoes, Hustle could be the type of pic that has a decent opening and displays strong legs into January. However, it will face direct competition just five days after its opening with the debut of Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. Audience reaction to Hustle will be key to how well it holds up in future weekends with the amount of competition it’ll be up against.
As I see it, the low mark for its opening could be in the mid teens. I have a feeling, though, it could premiere in the $20M range. Its marketing campaign has been robust and its stars are well-regarded (doesn’t hurt that Lawrence is headlining the wildly popular Hunger Games franchise). And the awards attention can only help.
Many prognosticators are predicting Saving Mr. Banks will debut higher than this over next weekend, but I’m going the opposite direction and believe Hustle will outshine it for now.
American Hustle opening weekend prediction: $20.5 million
For my Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues prediction, click here:
Saving Mr. Banks is a product from Walt Disney Studios that focuses on the making of one of their beloved classics, 1964’s Mary Poppins. It stars Emma Thompson as author P.L. Travers and Tom Hanks as Walt Disney himself and comes from The Blind Side director John Lee Hancock. The supporting cast includes Colin Farrell and Paul Giamatti. Banks has earned Oscar buzz for Best Picture and for the performances of Ms. Thompson and Mr. Hanks.
With a reported budget of just a meager $35 million, this seems primed to have a nice run throughout the holiday season. Reviews have mostly been positive as it stands at 81% on Rotten Tomatoes. With its recognizable stars and focus on a very well-known classic, Banks could play to adults and children alike.
The main question as far as its opening is whether Banks will start big out of the gate or be more of a slow burner with smallish drop-offs from weekend to weekend. My gut tells me that the latter is a better possibility. There is plenty of competition this weekend for adult moviegoers – Anchorman 2, American Hustle – and for younger audiences – The Hobbit in weekend #2, Walking with Dinosaurs.
If Banks earns over $20 million this weekend (which is certainly possible), that should be considered quite an accomplishment. My estimate puts it a bit below that, though I think future weekends should be kind to it.
Saving Mr. Banks opening weekend prediction: $17.1 million
For my Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues prediction, click here:
If Anchorman: The Legend Continues fails to have a solid opening, it certainly won’t be due to lack of exposure. Will Ferrell has been everywhere as title character Ron Burgundy over the past several weeks from Dodge Durango commercials to local North Dakota newscasts to the MTV Video Music Awards and more.
As you will recall, Anchorman: The Legend of Ron Burgundy came out in the summer of 2004 and grossed a very respectable $85 million. Since then, the film has taken on a life of its own becoming arguably the most quoted comedy of the past decade or two. It’s already earned a (deserved) reputation as a comedy classic.
For years, rumors of a sequel came and went. And now we’re here – with Ferrell, Steve Carell, Paul Rudd, David Koechner, and Christina Applegate back in the mix. There are also expected to be cameos galore – from Kanye West to Jim Carrey to Harrison Ford.
Simply put – Anchorman 2 is expected to be kind of a big deal. How big of a deal is the question. Anchorman 2 opens on Wednesday so I’ll be making a three and five day projection. It stands to reason that many fans of the original of which there’s many should be anxious to rush out and see the sequel.
What’s the opening weekend range we’re talking about? It’s tough to say. The absolute high mark I could foresee is a five-day gross in the neighborhood of $80 million. That would be an absolutely astonishing debut. I also can’t imagine the five-day haul being lower than $40 million, which would be considered pretty disappointing. As you can see, that’s a rather large range between potential grosses.
You also need to factor in the pre-Christmas weekend that Anchorman 2 is being released in. For many pictures released at this time, the opening weekend can be relatively lower than you might expect with subsequently smaller than normal drop-offs over the Christmas and New Year’s weekend. However, unlike American Hustle and Saving Mr. Banks which open Friday, I expect a large portion of Ron Burgundy’s business to be front loaded.
With all that explanation – here’s the deal: this is not an easy prediction to make. It’s difficult to judge just how eagerly anticipated moviegoers really are for it. Media saturation has been high, the trailers have been effective, and the original is beloved.
Ultimately I am predicting Anchorman 2 falls in between the highs and lows I presented as possibilities.
Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues opening weekend prediction: $41.9 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $61.2 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)
The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug couldn’t manage to reach the heights of its predecessor last year as it opened to $73.6 million over the weekend, below my $77.9M prediction. In my post about Smaug, I opined that anything below $75M would likely be considered a letdown and it must be noted that Smaug earned over $10M less than An Unexpected Journey did last year. We’ll see how it holds up over the next couple of weeks.
With a smaller than expected decline in weekend #3, Disney’s Frozen was second with $22.1 million, above my $17.1M estimate. The animated tale has earned $164 million so far and should eventually surpass $250M mark.
The biggest surprise of the weekend was the disappointing performance of Tyler Perry’s A Madea Christmas. Audiences interest in the character is clearly waning as Christmas posted the lowest opening of any pic in the franchise with $16 million. This is less than half of my generous $33.7M prediction. No Madea flick had made less than $25 million in their openings until now so this is a considerably weak debut for Mr. Perry and company.
Rounding out the top five: The Hunger Games: Catching Fire at four with $13.1 million (just above my $12.3M prediction) and Thor: The Dark World at five with $2.7 million (just above my $2.5M projection).
Be sure to check the blog today as my predictions will roll in on Anchorman: The Legend Continues, Saving Mr. Banks, American Hustle, and Walking with Dinosaurs.
The 2005 Oscars showcased easily the biggest Best Picture upset since 1998 when Shakespeare in Love won out over Saving Private Ryan. This time around, Ang Lee’s cowboy romance Brokeback Mountain was widely expected to take the top prize.
However, at the end of the evening, it was Jack Nicholson reading the name of Paul Haggis’s Crash as the winner. Other nominees were Bennett Miller’s Capote, George Clooney’s Good Night, and Good Luck, and Steven Spielberg’s Munich.
The ensemble race relations drama Crash has since garnered the reputation of one of the most undeserving Best Pic recipients of all time. While I agree it wasn’t the year’s best, it’s a pretty damn good film in my estimation. Other flicks I would’ve considered: Woody Allen’s Match Point and Christopher Nolan’s Batman Begins, which I rank as the greatest superhero flick of all time.
While Mountain was snubbed for the big prize, Ang Lee did take Best Director in a category where the nominated directors matched the pictures honored (this was rare before the Academy switched to five to ten nominees in 2009). Lee won out over Haggis, Miller, Clooney, and Spielberg.
The Best Actor category went as planned with Philip Seymour Hoffman winning for his spot-on portrayal of Capote. Other nominees: Terrence Howard in Hustle&Flow, Heath Ledger in Brokeback Mountain, Joaquin Phoenix for Walk the Line, and David Strathairn in Good Night, and Good Luck.
I might have considered Russell Crowe in Cinderella Man or Viggo Mortensen in A History of Violence. Of course, the Academy rarely honors comedy which left out someone else I would have thought about – Steve Carell for his terrific work in The 40 Yr. Old Virgin.
As June Carter Cash, Reese Witherspoon was victorious in the Best Actress category in Walk the Line, over Judi Dench for Mrs. Henderson Presents, Felicity Huffman in Transamerica, Keira Knightley in Pride&Prejudice, and Charlize Theron for North Country.
My list would have certainly included Scarlett Johannson in Match Point.
George Clooney won Supporting Actor for Syriana over Matt Dillon in Crash, Paul Giamatti in Cinderella Man, Jake Gyllenhall in Brokeback Mountain, and William Hurt in A History of Violence.
Clifton Collins Jr.’s fine work in Capote should have been included and, for an outside the box pick, Mickey Rourke in a memorable role in Sin City.
Rachel Weisz’s win for Supporting Actress in The Constant Gardener showcased a weak category that included Amy Adams in Junebug, Catherine Keener in Capote, Frances McDormand in North Country, and Michelle Williams in Brokeback Mountain.
Two performances jump out in my mind that I would’ve had: Maria Bello in A History of Violence and Taryn Manning in Hustle&Flow.
Ultimately the 2005 Oscars will be remembered for that Crash upset. This would also not be the last time where Ang Lee would take home Best Director without his project winning Best Picture. We’ll get to that in an Oscar History post in the future.
Well, folks, we’ve arrived at my December predictions for the six major categories at the Oscars! And there’s been significant changes in some categories. There’s not one category that’s remained the same from my last go-round of guesses. A lot has happened since my November predictions. Every major contender has now screened with critics. Golden Globe and SAG nominations have been announced. And, per usual, things are unclear. Don’t get me wrong – there’s certain films and actors that seem destined for nominations. However, no field is close to being set. Not even close.
For the first time in making my predictions, I am predicting the winner in each race. I would expect at least one more round (more likely two) prior to nominations being announced in mid January. Here we go!
BEST PICTURE
Todd’s Predictions –
American Hustle
Captain Phillips
Gravity
Her
Inside Llewyn Davis
Nebraska
Saving Mr. Banks
12 Years a Slave
The Wolf of Wall Street
Analysis: Yes, I am keeping the number at nine predicted pictures (there could be anywhere from five to ten). This new round of predictions brings in three new films – Her, Nebraska, Saving Mr. Banks – and takes out three – All is Lost, Blue Jasmine, Lee Daniels’ The Butler. Other possible nominees include Dallas Buyer’s Club, August: Osage County, Lone Survivor, Philomena, Rush, Prisoners and Fruitvale Station.
Predicted Winner: Conventional wisdom is that the race is between Gravity and 12 Years a Slave, with The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle as potential spoilers. My gut tells me (at least for now) that 12 Years a Slave is in the driver’s seat and it is my current prediction to win.
BEST DIRECTOR
Todd’s Predictions –
Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity
Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne, Nebraska
David O. Russell, American Hustle
Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street
Analyis: As I see it, only Cuaron and McQueen are surefire nominees and should compete with each other for the win. Let’s not forget that last year’s Director nominees were a total shocker to everyone when Ben Affleck (Argo) and Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty) did not pick up expected nominations. My predictions today reflect putting Payne and Scorsese in and taking J.C. Chandor (All Is Lost) and Paul Greengrass (Captain Phillips) out. Chandor seems highly unlikely to get a nod at this point, but any combination of Greengrass, Spike Jonze (Her), the Coen Brothers (Inside Llewyn Davis), or John Lee Hancock (Saving Mr. Banks) could get in.
Predicted Winner: As mentioned, Cuaron and McQueen are the frontrunners. I could easily see a scenario where 12 Years a Slave wins Best Picture and Cuaron still nabs Director for the amazing technical achievement that Gravity was. It’s tempting, but for now, my prediction is that Picture and Director will match up and McQueen wins.
BEST ACTOR
Todd’s Predictions –
Bruce Dern, Nebraska
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street
Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Robert Redford, All Is Lost
Analysis: This is shaping up to be by far the most fascinating race to watch. My current predictions put Dern and DiCaprio in and Tom Hanks (Captain Phillips) and Joaquin Phoenix (Her) out. And don’t count out Forest Whitaker (Lee Daniels’ The Butler), Christian Bale (American Hustle), or Oscar Isaac (Inside Llewyn Davis). Frankly, I would say Ejiofor is the only nominee I would be shocked at if he’s not nominated. The crazy thing is – I could see any one of the five predicted nominees actually win and that’s rare. This is an extraordinarily tough call, but right now I’m staying on the 12 Years bandwagon and going with Ejiofor.
BEST ACTRESS
Todd’s Predictions –
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Judi Dench, Philomena
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Analysis and Predicted Winner: Just one change here – Amy Adams (American Hustle) out and Emma Thompson in. This looks to be a showdown between Blanchett (who’s picking up the majority of critics awards) and Bullock (the most popular actress starring in a wildly popular film). The fact that Bullock won four years ago leads me to give Blanchett a slight edge and she’s my prediction. Other contenders not predicted: Adele Exarchopoulos (Blue is the Warmest Color), Julie Delpy (Before Midnight), and Julia Louis-Dreyfus (Enough Said), as well as Adams.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Todd’s Predictions –
Bradley Cooper, American Hustle
Michael Fassbender, 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks, Saving Mr. Banks
Jonah Hill, The Wolf of Wall Street
Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club
Analysis: Of the five predicted, I am only confident about Fassbender and Leto. My current predictions have Hanks in and his Captain Phillips costar Barkhad Abdi out. However, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Abdi, John Goodman (Inside Llewyn Davis), Daniel Bruhl (Rush), Will Forte (Nebraska), Harrison Ford (42), or the late James Gandolfini (Enough Said) nominated.
Predicted Winner: A 12 Years sweep could give Fassbender the prize. However, my prediction is Jared Leto for his acclaimed work in Dallas Buyer’s Club.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Lawrence, American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
Julia Roberts, August: Osage County
June Squibb, Nebraska
Oprah Winfrey, Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Analysis: Voters might not be able to resist nominating Julia so she’s in and Sally Hawkins (Blue Jasmine) is out. Other not predicted contenders could be Octavia Spencer (Fruitvale Station) and Margo Martindale (August: Osage County). This race appears to be coming down to Lawrence and Nyong’o.
Predicted Winner: Much like Supporting Actor, a 12 Years night should include Nyong’o. And then came Jennifer Lawrence, who’s having an incredible film year with her Best Actress Oscar win for Silver Linings Playbook and headlining the massive hit The Hunger Games: Catching Fire. Her performance in Hustle is garnering raves. Could she win two years in a row? Between her and Nyong’o, this seems like a coin toss at this juncture. For now, I’ll predict the 12 Years momentum gives Nyong’o the win.
And there you have it. To recap, my current winner predictions:
PICTURE – 12 Years a Slave
DIRECTOR – Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave
ACTOR – Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave
ACTRESS – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
SUPPORTING ACTOR – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyer’s Club
SUPPORTING ACTRESS – Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave
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