Author: toddmthatcher

47 Ronin Box Office Prediction

47 Ronin was initially scheduled to be released domestically in November 2012 and now over a year later, Keanu Reeves’s martial arts action pic debuts on Christmas Day. Big box office returns may not reward Universal Pictures for the wait.

With a reported gargantuan budget of $175 million, the makers of the pic were likely hopeful that international box office would help this become a hit. It hasn’t turned out that way as Ronin had a less than expected premiere in Japan earlier this month.

Reeves is simply not the box office draw he was a decade ago and 47 Ronin may get lost in the holiday shuffle. It has one advantage in being the sole straight up action pic in the marketplace, but I’m not sure that’s enough for it to break through in a major way. I don’t see it breaking $20 million over the five-day Christmas holiday and it’ll probably drop quickly from whatever its opening is.

47 Ronin opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $17.8 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on The Wolf of Wall Street, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-wolf-of-wall-street-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-secret-life-of-walter-mitty-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Grudge Match, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/grudge-match-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Justin Bieber’s Believe, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/justin-bieber-believe-box-office-prediction/

Grudge Match Box Office Prediction

Call it Grumpy Old Boxers and call it a potentially lame concept, but Grudge Match may have some nice Christmas returns when it opens Wednesday. The sports comedy pits 67 year-old Sylvester Stallone in a boxing match with 70 year-old Robert De Niro. Of course, these two actors are known for their pugilistic pics – Stallone from the Rocky franchise (the original won the Best Picture Oscar) and De Niro from 1980’s Raging Bull, for which he won an Oscar.

Don’t expect any Oscars here, but a solid box office gross seems more possible. Audiences could simply reject it, but I suspect older holiday moviegoers looking for a laugh could turn to this. Grudge Match is directed by veteran comedy director Peter Segal, whose credits include Tommy Boy, Anger Management, 50 First Dates, and Get Smart. Kevin Hart and Alan Arkin costar.

Reviews should be a non-factor (there aren’t any yet). Stallone has had a dismal 2013 with Bullet to the Head and Escape Plan, two action oriented bombs. This is De Niro’s umpteenth comedy of the year after The Big Wedding, The Family, and Last Vegas.

Grudge Match may play similarly to last year’s Parental Guidance with Billy Crystal and Bette Midler, which opened on Christmas and took in $29 million over six days. The gross for Grudge will be for five days and it may not quite bring in the younger audience that Guidance did. However, I am estimating that this gimmicky comedy will find an audience and a fairly healthy one at that.

Grudge Match opening weekend prediction: $13.9 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $24.5 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on The Wolf of Wall Street, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-wolf-of-wall-street-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-secret-life-of-walter-mitty-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on 47 Ronin, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/47-ronin-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Justin Bieber’s Believe, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/justin-bieber-believe-box-office-prediction/

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty Box Office Prediction

One of the big question marks entering into the crowded Christmas holiday season is how The Secret Life of Walter Mitty will perform at the box office.

Ben Stiller directs and stars in the fantasy themed drama, which is loosely based on a 1947 Danny Kaye picture of the same name. Walter Mitty has been in development for nearly two decades. During that time period, various directors and actors were attached to the project including Steven Spielberg, Ron Howard, Gore Verbinski, Jim Carrey, Owen Wilson, Mike Myers, and Sacha Baron Cohen. Eventually it turned into a vehicle for Mr. Stiller, making his first directorial effort since 2008’s Tropic Thunder. Kristin Wiig and Sean Penn are among the costars.

At one time, Mitty was seen as a potential awards contender but the reviews have ended that prospect. The pic has generated mixed reviews and stands at a troubling 42% on Rotten Tomatoes. As has become a theme in my Christmas box office predictions, the high amount of competition is a factor in my estimate. This picture is going for an adult audience and there’s The Wolf of Wall Street and American Hustle out there. Those seeking a film with comedic elements may look to Anchorman 2 or Grudge Match. There’s also Saving Mr. Banks, which I anticipate will perform well in its second weekend after a rather soft debut. This all leads to me to believe that Mitty, coupled with its middling reviews, could get somewhat lost in the holiday shuffle.

I’m not convinced the pic’s marketing campaign has been successful in drawing significant audience interest for it. Mitty may struggle to reach $20 million over the five-day holiday time period.

The Secret Life of Walter Mitty box office prediction: $11.7 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $19.3 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction on The Wolf of Wall Street, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-wolf-of-wall-street-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Grudge Match, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/grudge-match-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on 47 Ronin, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/47-ronin-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction on Justin Bieber’s Believe, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/justin-bieber-believe-box-office-prediction/

The Wolf of Wall Street Box Office Prediction

This Christmas brings an onslaught of five new pictures debuting and we begin with Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. This three hour comedy/drama (it’s the director’s longest film, beating out GoodFellas) stars Marty’s favorite collaborator Leonardo DiCaprio as well as Jonah Hill and Matthew McConaughey. It’s received positive reviews, has had a robust marketing campaign (especially with its awesome first trailer), and looks poised to make some noise over the holiday season.

Originally scheduled to premiere in mid-November, Wolf was switched to December 25th and it certainly does face more competition. American Hustle (which had a solid $19M debut) is going after the same audience in its second weekend. Still, I expect this to have a healthy debut over its five-day rollout.

Last year, adult-oriented pics Les Miserables and Django Unchained made a killing over their Christmas openings. Miserables earned $67 million over six days (Christmas was a Tuesday last year) while Django took in $64 million. With one less day and more competition, I don’t expect Wolf to go that high but its grosses should still impress. Its long running time means less showings but that should only be a small impediment.

I foresee a five-day debut in the 40s and a Merry Christmas indeed for Scorsese and company.

The Wolf of Wall Street opening weekend prediction: $25.4 million (Friday-to-Sunday), $44.2 million (Wednesday-to-Sunday)

For my prediction of The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/the-secret-life-of-walter-mitty-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction of Grudge Match, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/grudge-match-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction of 47 Ronin, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/47-ronin-box-office-prediction/

For my prediction of Justin Bieber’s Believe, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2013/12/22/justin-bieber-believe-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Results: December 20-22

In a result that surprised yours truly, Ron Burgundy and company couldn’t dislodge Gandalf and company from the top spot at the box office in this crowded pre-holiday weekend.

The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug remained #1 for the second week in a row with an estimated $31.4 million – exactly on target with my $31.5M projection. Peter Jackson’s middle chapter in the franchise has earned $127.5M in its ten days of release.

This left Anchorman 2: The Legend Continues in the two spot and well below my projected opening. The sequel to the 2004 original made $26.7 million over the Friday to Sunday frame and $40 million since its Wednesday debut. I had it earning $41.9M and $61.2M, respectively, over those time periods. While the opening is decent, this is clearly below my overzealous expectations. Furthermore, audiences seem a bit disappointed with what they’re seeing as they awarded it a B Cinemascore grade, which is rather low.

There was a virtual tie for the #3 spot as Disney’s Frozen took in $19.1 million. I incorrectly had it left out of the top five. Oops. The animated pic has earned $191.5M since its November premiere. David O. Russell’s American Hustle also made $19.1 million, just under my $20.5M projection. This is a solid debut for the critically lauded comedy/drama and its per-screen average was almost identical to that of the Anchorman sequel.

Coming in fifth but well below my estimate was Saving Mr. Banks with Emma Thompson and Tom Hanks. It started out of the gate rather slowly with $9.3 million, way under my $17.1M projection. Banks will count on very low drop-offs over the next few weekends and the chances of that are good with its A Cinemascore grade.

Finally, the animated 3D tale Walking with Dinosaurs was a huge disappointment with an 8th place opening at $7.3 million. I predicted it would earn $18.9M. Oops again. Family audiences are still choosing Frozen over this new offering.

Today on the blog – you’ll see the movie marketplace getting even more crowded as I’ll post predictions for all five features opening Christmas Day: The Wolf of Wall Street, Grudge Match, The Secret Life of Walter Mitty, 47 Ronin, and the Justin Bieber doc Believe. Stay tuned!

This Day in Movie History: December 22

Apparently December 22nd in Movie History could be called Ben Stiller Day as the actor has had a trio of titles debut on the day over the past decade.

For starters, 2004 brought us the sequel Meet the Fockers, which was a smash hit grossing $279 million domestically. It remains Stiller’s highest earning picture of all time.

Two years later would come Stiller’s second largest domestic grosser Night at the Museum. The family friendly pic racked up a $250 million domestic gross and spawned a sequel with another on the way in 2014.

Finally, December 22, 2010 brought Little Fockers, where the franchise seemed to run out of steam. Though it made a respectable $148 million – that’s a far cry from its 2004 predecessor.

Stiller’s movies are no stranger to the Christmas season (clearly) and this year is no exception with The Secret Life of Walter Mitty opening on Christmas Day.

As for celebrity birthdays, we have two characters actors: Hector Elizondo turns 77. You may know him for the original The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3 or Beaches or Pretty Woman. He’s a particular favorite of director Garry Marshall.

And Ralph Fiennes turns 51. He first captured the attention of audiences with his Oscar nominated supporting role as a Nazi soldier in Schindler’s List. Since then he’s appeared in everything from Quiz Show to The English Patient to Red Dragon to, of course, Lord Voldemort in the Harry Potter franchise.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two actors:

Hector Elizondo was in Beverly Hills Cop III with Eddie Murphy

Eddie Murphy was with (yep) Ben Stiller in Tower Heist

Ben Stiller was in Along Came Polly with Phillip Seymour Hoffman

Phillip Seymour Hoffman was in Red Dragon with Ralph Fiennes

And that’s today – December 22 – in Movie History!

This Day in Movie History: December 21

The landscape of film changed forever on This Day in Movie History 76 years ago when Disney’s Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs had its world premiere at the Carthay Circle Theatre in Hollywood. The brainchild of Walt Disney, Snow White was the first full-length animated feature from the studio and the rest, as they say, was history. The picture was awarded an honorary Oscar and adjusted for inflation, Snow White is one of the top ten grossing films of all time.

On the other hand, 19 years ago today, Macaulay Culkin would begin to see his box office fortunes take a turn for the worse in Richie Rich. After the huge success of the Home Alone pics in 1990 and 1992, Rich fell short money wise grossing $38 million against a $40 million budget. This really marked the beginning of the end of Macaulay’s success as a draw for moviegoers.

Twelve years today marked the opening of Ron Howard’s A Beautiful Mind with Russell Crowe and Jennifer Connelly (in an Oscar winning performance). The true story of John Nash went on to win Best Picture at the Oscars, though Crowe would lose out Best Actor to Denzel Washington in Training Day (Crowe had won the year prior for Gladiator).

As for celebrity birthdays, double Oscar winner and activist Jane Fonda is 76 today while the man who has the most DVD’s/Blu Rays in my collection, Samuel L. Jackson, is 65.

Keeping with my theme of doing Six Degrees of Separation for the birthday actors:

Jane Fonda was in Lee Daniels’ The Butler with John Cusack

John Cusack was in 1408 with Samuel L. Jackson

And that’s today in Movie History!

 

 

This Day in Movie History: December 20

Continuing with my new blog series – This Day in Movie History – December 20th brings us three more important films celebrating their anniversaries and two celebrity birthdays.

It was seventeen years ago today that the influential horror flick Scream opened. Wes Craven was already a legend in the horror genre for The Last House on the Left and especially A Nightmare on Elm Street. Scream would turn into a smash unexpected hit that spawned three sequels and injected some much needed humor and irony into a genre that was growing stale.

22 years ago today marked the opening of Oliver Stone’s controversial JFK. The picture, no matter what you think of its abundant conspiracy theories, is brauvura filmmaking at a high level and earned Oscar nominations for Picture, Director, and Supporting Actor for Tommy Lee Jones.

Another heavily Oscar nominated pic, Martin Scorsese’s Gangs of New York, debuted eleven years ago today. It was considered an Academy heavyweight, but lost Picture and Director to Chicago. It would be four years later before Marty would finally be recognized at the ceremony for The Departed. The film is also notable for beginning the Scorsese/DiCaprio partnership that has since spanned to five films thus far.

Today marks Jonah Hill’s big 3-0! You may know him from some of your favorite comedies of the past near decade – The 40 Yr. Old Virgin, Knocked Up, Superbad, Forgetting Sarah Marshall, 21 Jump Street, and This is The End. He also broke out dramatically in 2011 with an Oscar nominated turn in Moneyball and is again receiving Academy buzz for his role in Martin Scorsese’s The Wolf of Wall Street. He’ll be seen next summer in the sequel 22 Jump Street.

Finally, today would have marked the 67th birthday of character actor John Spencer. Known to most viewers as Leo McGarry from TV’s “The West Wing”, Spencer also had a successful film career. He turned up in well-known titles including Sea of Love, Presumed Innocent, The Rock, and Cop Land.

Keeping with my theme of connecting the birthday actors in Six Degrees of Separation:

Jonah Hill was in This is the End with James Franco

James Franco was in City by the Sea with Robert De Niro

Robert De Niro was in Cop Land with John Spencer

And that’s today, December 20, in Movie History!

This Day in Movie History: December 19

And now for a new feature on the blog – This Day in Movie History – which will be a daily post showing notable film openings, birthdays, and more that happened on each particular calendar day.

It would make logical sense to begin this year long blog series with today’s current date (duh), so here are five notable happenings from December 19th in Movie History:

1) Stanley Kubrick’s A Clockwork Orange opened domestically 42 years ago today. This satiric and very violent and disturbing classic earned a Best Picture nomination as well as a directing nod for Kubrick. It lost both categories to The French Connection.

2) Roger Moore’s second outing as James Bond, The Man with the Golden Gun opened 39 years ago today. At the time, this was considered a low point in the 12 year old series and was the lowerst grossing 007 picture at that juncture. Three years later, things would improve considerably with 1977’s The Spy Who Loved Me.

3) Sixteen years ago today, James Cameron’s Titanic opened in theaters and became the highest grossing picture of all time while earning a bunch of Oscars, including Picture and Director. Cameron’s record would stand until his next pic 12 years later, Avatar. The film also made Leonardo DiCaprio a superstar.

Moving to birthdays:

4) Kristy Swanson turns 44 years old. You may know her best as the title character in 1992’s Buffy the Vampire Slayer, which would later turn into a hit TV series starring Sarah Michelle Gellar. She also teamed up with Charlie Sheen in 1994’s The Chase and in John Singleton’s 1995 flick Higher Learning.

5) Jake Gyllenhall turns 33 years old. He was just seen in the critically acclaimed Prisoners and received an Oscar nomination for 2005’s Brokeback Mountain. Some other notable roles: Donnie Darko, The Day After Tomorrow, Jarhead, Zodiac, Source Code, and End of Watch.

I’ll also make it a habit to do two birthdays each time and connect the actors through Six Degrees of Separation off the top of my head, so here goes:

Kristy Swanson was in Buffy, the Vampire Slayer with Paul Reubens

Paul Reubens was in Blow with Johnny Depp

Johnny Depp was in Secret Window with Maria Bello

Maria Bello was in Prisoners with Jake Gyllenhall

And there you have it – my first daily rundown on this day – December 19th – in Movie History.