Author: toddmthatcher

The Rise of Jimmy Fallon

If you’ve followed my blog regularly over the last near year and a half, you may have noticed that I’ve got quite a keen interest in the “late night wars”. Recently, I wrote a post speculating about who may be in line to replace David Letterman on CBS when the day comes. You can read that here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/01/25/the-history-and-future-of-late-night-talk-shows/

In the past week, Jimmy Fallon has taken over “The Tonight Show” following Jay Leno’s second retirement from the program. Fallon has moved into the role without the controversy that involved Conan O’Brien’s brief ascension to hosting duties a few years back. Of course, it was the Conan fiasco that allowed Jimmy to take over “Late Night” five years ago.

Truth be told, when Fallon was announced as host of that program – my reaction wasn’t all that positive. While I admired a good deal of his work on “SNL”, I didn’t consider myself a big fan of his. I had my serious doubts as to whether he’d be a decent fit for the late night talk show format.

Well, folks, I was wrong. Very wrong. As evidenced by his tenure on “Late Night” and his first week hosting “Tonight” – Fallon has mastered the art form. What’s even more astonishing is he’s done it in a way that seems to appeal to the widest audience possible. He has started out of the gate at #1 beating Letterman and Kimmel and I’ll predict that crown will not be relinquished.

Why is Fallon so good? There are several reasons, as I see it. He’s a master impressionist and his sketches playing musical artists are genius… Google Fallon-Jim Morrison-Reading Rainbow if you don’t believe me (or watch it in the link I provided below).

He has an easy rapport with his guests. Leno came off (to me) as robotic during celebrity interviews. Letterman is much better, but sometimes he appears disinterested when the new starlet is plugging her latest mediocre project. Frankly, Dave probably is disinterested. Jimmy succeeds at actually seeming genuinely interested with his guests.

Fallon’s skits (whether musical or playing around with Justin Timberlake, his best guest) have become the stuff of YouTube legend. More than anyone, he has honed the art of web based comedy gold that is watched and re-watched over and over.

Most of all, it’s Fallon’s enthusiasm that shines through. This is kind of harder to explain. Every time I watch him, I come away with the notion that Jimmy is extraordinarily grateful for the opportunities given to him. He seems to love hosting the show. While Dave Letterman has earned his reputation as a somewhat grumpy curmudgeon – Jimmy Fallon is almost always positive.

Don’t get me wrong – I firmly believe Letterman is a genius. And his 30 years of work has influenced comedy more than anyone else – from Stewart to Conan to Colbert to Kimmel and so on. While Dave’s show can still be great – I must admit that there’s a feeling of autopilot from time to time.

Over on ABC, Jimmy Kimmel has carved a nice niche for himself. His show has the loosest feel of them all, he’s a solid interviewer, and many of the comedy pieces score.

Nowadays, though, Fallon’s getting it done the best. And I never would have expected that. I fall into the category of thought that Leno more or less botched his tenure as host of “Tonight”. Jay seemed to try way too hard to appeal to the widest audience possible and what we were left with was a show that usually felt empty and bland and too middle of the road. And I must admit that the whole “Nice Guy Jay” routine felt forced to me, especially when knowing this is the same man who hid in a closet at NBC to spy on his bosses discussions on him and Letterman.

Ironically, Jimmy is in the similar position as most accessible to viewers compared to his rivals. With Jimmy – it doesn’t feel forced. It feels natural. That’s because Fallon is a natural. And for the first time in 22 years, I’m left with the feeling that someone is hosting “The Tonight Show” who is truly an heir to the throne that Johnny perfected.

2014 Oscar Predictions: Best Picture

After five posts predicting the other major categories for this year’s Academy Awards, we’ve arrived at the biggest race of all: Best Picture. Here are the nine nominees:

American Hustle

Captain Phillips

Dallas Buyers Club

Gravity

Her

Nebraska

Philomena

12 Years a Slave

The Wolf of Wall Street

As I see it, there are three films that stand a realistic chance at taking home the gold. Those three do not include Captain Phillips, Dallas Buyers Club, Her, Nebraska, Philomena, or The Wolf of Wall Street.

That leaves us with American Hustle, Gravity, and 12 Years a Slave.

While I have predicted that Alfonso Cuaron will win Best Director for Gravity (a pick I’m highly confident in), the chances of his picture winning are much more slim. While it was a hit with audiences and critics – the sci-fi epic has won no major precursors to speak of. Its recognition should come to Cuaron and in various technical categories.

American Hustle certainly has plenty of fans and director David O. Russell has been on a heckuva hot streak. The pic stands the second best chance of being the victor.

However, the fact is that Steve McQueen’s 12 Years a Slave is undeniably the frontrunner and it has been for awhile. Slave has won a slew of precursors, including the Golden Globe for Best Drama. From an odds perspective, I’d put it this way:

12 Years a Slave: 75% chance of winning

American Hustle: 20% chance of winning

Gravity: 5% chance of winning

Predicted Winner: 12 Years a Slave

For a full breakdown of my picks, here ya go:

Picture – 12 Years a Slave

Director – Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Actor – Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Actress – Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Supporting Actor – Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Supporting Actress – Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Next weekend – I’ll have my final predictions in all categories before the big show. If any of the six major ones change in the next week (unlikely), I’ll act accordingly. Until then!

2014 Oscars: Best Director Prediction

We’re just over a week away from the Oscars and over the last few days, I’ve been posting my predictions for winners in the six major races. So far the acting categories are covered with the following picks:

Supporting Actress: Lupita Nyong’o, 12 Years a Slave

Supporting Actor: Jared Leto, Dallas Buyers Club

Actress: Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine

Actor: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

This brings us to Best Director. Let’s recap the nominees:

Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Steve McQueen, 12 Years a Slave

Alexander Payne, Nebraska

David O. Russell, American Hustle

Martin Scorsese, The Wolf of Wall Street

We begin with getting Payne and Scorsese out of the way. They’re highly unlikely to be the victors. That leaves us with Cuaron, McQueen, and Russell.

We’ll get to my Best Picture prediction soon enough on the blog, but many see 12 Years a Slave as the frontrunner for the race. That would mean McQueen wins, right? Not necessarily.

David O. Russell has truly been on a roll lately with The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, and now American Hustle. Academy voters may want to reward his incredible hot streak – especially if Hustle performs well in other categories and has a better than expected evening.

Having said that, the momentum is undeniably with Cuaron. While Gravity may not win the biggest prize, critics and audiences marveled at the director’s technical achievements here. This could be somewhat of a repeat of 2012 when Argo won Picture, but Director went to Ang Lee for his amazing job with Life of Pi.

Cuaron has won basically all the precursors and this seems like a perfect spot for Gravity to win a high-profile category.

Best Director Prediction: Alfonso Cuaron, Gravity

Best Picture is up next and it’ll be up this weekend. I’ll have my final predictions in all categories a couple of days before the show. Stay tuned!

 

This Day in Movie History: February 18

20 years ago Today in Movie History – February 18 – Ben Stiller made his directorial debut with the now Gen X classic Reality Bites. The romantic comedy/drama starring Winona Ryder helped establish not only Stiller, but also Ethan Hawke and Janeane Garafalo as rising stars. Its soundtrack was also a hit and include the single “Stay” by Lisa Loeb. Stiller could onto direct The Cable Guy, Zoolander, Tropic Thunder, and The Secret Life of Walter Mitty.

As for birthdays – John Travolta is 60 today. After becoming known to TV viewers from “Welcome Back, Kotter”, he very successfully transitioned into film with late 70s megahits Saturday Night Fever and Grease and Urban Cowboy in 1980. After some lean years in which only his Look Who’s Talking flicks did well, he had one of the most notable comebacks in film history with 1994’s Pulp Fiction. Since then he’s starred in numerous commercial and critical hits including Get Shorty, Broken Arrow, Phenomenon, Michael, Face/Off, Primary Colors, and Swordfish. He’s had some flops too – particularly the disastrous Battlefield Earth.

Matt Dillon is 50 today. He broke out in the early 80s in such pictures as My Bodyguard, Rumble Fish, The Outsiders, and The Flamingo Kid. He had a major critical hit in Gus Van Sant’s 1989 indie pic Drugstore Cowboy and a big comedic breakout in the smash There’s Something About Mary. Other notable movies include Singles, To Die For, Beautiful Girls, Wild Things, and Crash.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between them:

John Travolta was in Get Shorty with Gene Hackman

Gene Hackman was in Target with Matt Dillon

And that’s today – February 18 – in Movie History!

Box Office Predictions: February 21-23

The gladiator action pic Pompeii and Kevin Costner thriller 3 Days to Kill both make their debuts on Friday. Neither is likely to come close to challenging a third weekend for the The LEGO Movie at the top spot. You can find my individual prediction posts on the newbies here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/pompeii-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/3-days-to-kill-box-office-prediction/

As mentioned, the animated smash hit Lego Movie should easily coast to weekend #3 at the top of the charts. President’s Day weekend leftovers About Last Night and Robocop should both lose around half their audience while Monuments Men could stay in the top five with a fall in its third weekend that is less than that of its competitors. With my prediction of 3 Days to Kill outside the top five, I’ll project 1-6 this week:

1. The LEGO Movie

Predicted Gross: $33.7 million (representing a drop of 32%)

2. About Last Night

Predicted Gross: $13.6 million (representing a drop of 47%)

3. Pompeii

Predicted Gross: $13.3 million

4. Robocop

Predicted Gross: $10.4 million (representing a drop of 52%)

5. The Monuments Men

Predicted Gross: $10.3 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. 3 Days to Kill

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

Box Office Results (February 14-17)

The LEGO Movie held up fantastically in its sophomore frame over the holiday weekend with $62.4 million, besting my estimate of $54.2M. I correctly called the Kevin Hart rom com About Last Night to debut second, but its $27.8 million opening fell below my generous $36.8M prediction. Still, it continues an impressive run of box office dominance in 2014 by Mr. Hart. Robocop had a so-so debut at third. Its $25 million Friday-to-Monday take was right on par with my $24.9M estimate, but its $30 million six-day haul (it opened Wednesday) fell below my projection of $36.8M. The Monuments Men was fourth with $17.9 million – holding up better than my $15.1M projection. Newcomer Endless Love was in the five spot with $14.4 million, a bit below my $16.1M estimate. Finally, Winter’s Tale with Colin Farrell was the big loser of the weekend – opening in 8th place with a weak $8 million, far below my $18.4M prediction.

That’s all for now, folks! I’ll have updates posted on the blog’s Facebook page this weekend with final results Monday.

2014 Oscars: Best Actor Prediction

Tonight on the blog brings me to my prediction for Best Actor and, so far, this is the most difficult one. While Jared Leto for Supporting Actor and Cate Blanchett for Actress are safe bets and I picked Lupita Nyong’o in Supporting Actress as a slight favorite over Jennifer Lawrence – the Actor race boasts four performers who could possibly win. Let’s recap them:

Christian Bale, American Hustle

Bruce Dern, Nebraska

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Wolf of Wall Street

Chiwetel Ejiofor, 12 Years a Slave

Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

Mr. Bale was a bit of a surprise nominee and he’s the one that I see very unlikely to emerge victorious. As for the others – a 12 Years sweep could reward Ejiofor, though he’s won no major precursors. Same goes for Dern, though the Academy could pick him to honor his decades long career. As a side note – 2013 was unquestionably a strong year for lead actor roles. In lesser years – Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips, Joaquin Phoenix in Her, Robert Redford in All is Lost, or Forest Whitaker in Lee Daniels’ The Butler would have been nominated.

The likely scenario is a battle between Mr. DiCaprio and Mr. McConaughey. With his acclaimed Dallas Buyers Club role, McConaughey is the frontrunner. He’s also won the lion’s share of precursor awards. It also doesn’t hurt that he’s had a truly impressive career resurgence over the past couple of years.

With all that said, I have a gut feeling that DiCaprio’s chances are improving. Many of his performances have received raves yet he hasn’t taken home a gold statue. His work in Wall Street is among his most acclaimed performances and voters might feel like it’s his time.

While the argument for Leo is strong, it just isn’t enough for me (at this point) to go against McConaughey – though I’ll reserve my right to change picks in my final predictions post in a couple of weeks.

Predicted Winner: Matthew McConaughey, Dallas Buyers Club

This Day in Movie History: February 17

30 years ago Today in Movie History – February 17 – Kevin Bacon danced his way into the hearts of moviegoers in Footloose. The picture was an unexpected smash grossing $80 million domestically. Its soundtrack was equally successful featuring Kenny Loggins’ title hit – as well as “Let’s Hear It For The Boy” by Deniece Williams and “Almost Paradise” by Mike Reno and Ann Wilson. A remake would debut in 2010.

As for birthdays, Cleveland Browns legend Jim Brown is 78 today. While he’s surely known best for his sports achievements, Mr. Brown has had quite a film career. He costarred in 1967’s The Dirty Dozen and some blaxpoitation titles in the 70s like Slaughter and Black Gunn. More recent appearances include The Running Man with Arnold Schwarzenegger, Mars Attacks!, and Any Given Sunday.

Joseph Gordon-Levitt is 33 today. He became known as a youngster on the hit sitcom “3rd Rock from the Sun”. In recent years, his film career exploded with pictures including Brick, (500) Days of Summer, G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra, Inception, 50/50, The Dark Knight Rises, Looper, and Lincoln. He made his directorial last fall with Don Jon and will soon appear in the Sin City sequel.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between them:

Jim Brown was in The Running Man with Arnold Schwarzenegger

Arnold Schwarzenegger was in The Expendables 2 with Bruce Willis

Bruce Willis was in Looper with Joseph Gordon-Levitt

And that’s today – February 17 – in Movie History!

This Day in Movie History: February 16

Seven years ago Today in Movie History – February 16 – Ghost Rider got off to a hot start at the box office. Mark Steven Johnson, director of Daredevil, was behind the camera with Nicolas Cage in the role of Johnny Blaze. The comic book adaptation took in an impressive $52 million over President’s Day weekend and earned a total of $115 million domestically. That was enough to earn it a less successful sequel in 2012.

As for birthdays, rapper/actor Ice-T is 56 today. He broke out in film in 1991 with New Jack City. His other notable films include Trespass, Surviving the Game, and Johnny Mnemonic. His most known acting role has been on TV with “Law&Order: SVU”.

Elizabeth Olsen is 25 today. The younger sister of the Olsen twins, Elizabeth garnered rave reviews for her performance in 2011’s indie flick Martha Marcy May Marlene and has since appeared in Kill Your Darlings and Oldboy. There’s no doubt she’s about to become much more known with upcoming parts in the Godzilla reboot and summer 2015’s Avengers sequel.

As for Six Degrees of Separation between the two:

Ice-T was in Trespass with William Sadler

William Sadler was in Die Hard 2 with Bruce Willis

Bruce Willis was in Pulp Fiction with Samuel L. Jackson

Samuel L. Jackson was in Oldboy with Elizabeth Olsen

And that’s today – February 16 – in Movie History!

Pompeii Box Office Prediction

The $100 million budgeted gladiator epic Pompeii arrives in theaters Friday and this begs an obvious question: they invested $100 million dollars on this!?!?!

Director Paul W.S. Anderson is known for the Resident Evil franchise and here his attention turns to 79 A.D. for this action fest. The cast includes Kit Harrington from “Games of Thrones”, Emily Browning, Carrie-Anne Moss, and Kiefer Sutherland. The marketing campaign has been pretty muted for a picture of this budget. While FilmDistrict is maybe hoping for 300 type numbers, I don’t think Pompeii has a shot of that. Perhaps its 3D ticket prices could help, but I’m skeptical of that as well.

Pompeii has the look of a high-priced flop to this movie blogger. It could surprise me with high teens or beyond, but my gut says low teens.

Pompeii opening weekend prediction: $13.3 million

For my prediction on 3 Days to Kill, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/3-days-to-kill-box-office-prediction/

 

3 Days to Kill Box Office Prediction

All of a sudden Kevin Costner is everywhere and in the last few months he’s appeared in Man of Steel, Jack Ryan: Shadow Recruit, and the upcoming football flick Draft Day. For this weekend it’s the action/thriller 3 Days to Kill which is helmed by McG, director of the Charlie’s Angels pics and Terminator: Salvation.

Costner certainly isn’t the box office draw that he was a couple of decades ago and the advertising for Kill doesn’t make it look like anything other than a generic action movie. My main question is whether or not this even gets past single digits in its debut. I have my doubts and don’t see a compelling reason why this would have a solid opening. If Liam Neeson were headlining this, I’d likely to be singing a different tune but since that’s not the case I’m going low here.

3 Days to Kill opening weekend prediction: $7.7 million

For my prediction on Pompeii, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/02/16/pompeii-box-office-prediction/