Author: toddmthatcher

Box Office Predictions: June 13-15

Two very different sequels debut Friday and both are expected to inject a shot of adrenaline to the summer box office. DreamWorks animated How to Train Your  Dragon 2 and the R rated Jonah Hill/Channing Tatum comedy 22 Jump Street are the newbies and you can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/how-to-train-your-dragon-2-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/22-jump-street-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I expect both sequels to open north of what their predecessors accomplished and I’m estimating this will be the first (and probably only) summer 2014 weekend that sees two pictures open above $50M.

The Fault in Our Stars is the current champ and it got off to a terrific start. However, it’s likely to suffer a big decline in weekend #2 due to many of its fans rushing to see it out of the gate. Maleficent in its third weekend should lose around half its audience and the same bodes for Tom Cruise’s Edge of Tomorrow.

If Fault drops as far as I’m predicting, it could create a real race for #3 with Maleficent.

And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2

Predicted Gross: $88.7 million

2. 22 Jump Street

Predicted Gross: $53.1 million

3. The Fault in Our Stars

Predicted Gross: $17.9 million (representing a drop of 62%)

4. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $17.4 million (representing a drop of 49%)

5. Edge of Tomorrow

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million (representing a drop of 52%)

Box Office Results (June 6-8)

While I was right on point with this past weekend’s holdovers, I didn’t give either of the new entries quite enough credit.

The Fault in Our Stars dominated with a terrific $48 million debut – beyond my $43.1M projection. The book’s fans came out in droves and the pic managed to quadruple its meager budget in its initial weekend. As mentioned above, it’s likely to suffer a precipitous drop in weekend #2, but even if it does – Fault is unquestionably one of the season’s major sleepers.

Maleficent held up decently in its sophomore frame with $34.2 million – right on pace with my $34M estimate. The Disney feature has earned $128M so far and a $200M domestic gross is within reach.

Edge of Tomorrow couldn’t quite capitalize on its rock solid reviews and the Tom Cruise sci-fi actioner opened with a so-so $28.7 million. It did manage to top my $23.7M prediction, but considering its $178M massive budget – this is a letdown.

At fourth in its third weekend was X-Men: Days of Future Past with $15.1 million, on pace with my $14.9M estimate. The flick has made $189 million so far. In fifth was the Seth MacFarlane bomb A Million Ways to Die in the West with $7.3 million in weekend two, on par with my $7.1M projection. West has made only $30 million in ten days and it struggle to reach $50M.

That’s all for now, folks!

 

The Purge Movie Review

James DeMonaco’s The Purge is proof positive that an effective marketing campaign and creepy TV spots can lead some titles to gross far more than they should. Released last June, the pic opened to a way more than expected $34 million. Once audiences figured out its questionable quality, it only added $30 million more after its initial three day debut. Still, with a tiny $3 million budget it represented a financial windfall for Universal and a sequel is coming next month.

The Purge is predicated on a simple and pretty ludicrous premise. Set in 2022, the crime rate is down to 1% due mostly to a 12 hour period every March where there are no laws. People can feel free to murder anyone they want with no repercussion and this is designed to restore balance and let individuals play out their violent tendencies. It’s sort of like The Hunger Games where everyone can participate and not just watch. DeMonaco’s script does little to explain why this tactic is so successful and it takes a tremendous suspension of disbelief on the audience’s part to buy it.

Ethan Hawke (who has seen better horror flicks with Sinister) is a security system salesman with a wife (Lena Headey) and two kids who has undoubtedly seen financial benefit from all the purgin’. On the night of said Purge, events take place which make the family vulnerable to becoming victims of the big event. Scary looking individuals with Strangers type masks follow.

The largest problem with The Purge is that it attempts to walk a fine line between social satire and just being an all out B movie horror flick. It never quite decides which it would rather be so it succeeds at neither. DeMonaco’s script suggests there may have more background on why this Purge tactic was adopted by the U.S. government, but it never gets into explaining it. For most of the running time, this is just a run of the mill pic about terrorizers trying to kill the family and it’s not a terribly original or memorable one at that.

Performances are adequate if not particularly noteworthy for any of the actors. There’s “twists” involving the family’s neighbors that you’ll see coming from a mile away. One of the most positive aspects of The Purge is the brisk 85 minute running time. It’s watchable for sure, but little else.

There are moments few and far between where we see how The Purge could have been an intelligent commentary on violence in this country, but it never bothers to go there. What we’re left with is considerably less impressive.

** (out of four)

22 Jump Street Box Office Prediction

Jonah Hill and Channing Tatum are back in action with this Friday’s 22 Jump Street, the sequel to the successful 2012 21 Jump Street, which is loosely based on the 1980s Johnny Depp TV series. The original made $35 million in its debut weekend on the way to a $138 million domestic gross. This is expected to outshine that.

While 22 Jump Street is highly unlikely to match what How to Train Your Dragon 2 earns next weekend, it should very easily settle for a second place premiere. Word of mouth has been terrific – most critics are saying it improves upon its predecessor and it stands at 97% currently on Rotten Tomatoes. With costars Ice Cube, Dave Franco, and Rob Riggle back in the mix (and some reported celebrity cameos), audience anticipation and goodwill left over from the first should lead this to solid results for Columbia Pictures and MGM.

Both Hill and Tatum have seen their stars rise since 21 over two years ago. The big question to me is whether this posts the largest comedy opening so far in 2014. To do that it would need to debut higher than the $49 million of Neighbors from Hill’s buddy Seth Rogen. My prediction puts it just beyond that to claim victory.

22 Jump Street opening weekend prediction: $53.1 million

For my How to Train Your Dragon 2 prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/08/how-to-train-your-dragon-2-box-office-prediction/

How to Train Your Dragon 2 Box Office Prediction

With a surprisingly serious dearth of animated features for the kiddos this summer, DreamWorks Animation’s How to Train Your Dragon 2 appears poised to breathe some fire into the box office when it opens Friday. Opening ultra-wide on approximately 4,100 screens, Dragon 2 is the sequel to the 2010 original that grossed $43.7 million in its March debut on its way to a $217 million domestic haul. The numbers for the sequel are expected to be quite higher and its premiere could easily double the first weekend of its predecessor.

Featuring the voices of Jay Baruchel, America Ferrera, Jonah Hill, Christopher Mintz-Plasse, Kristen Wiig and Cate Blanchett – Dragon so far stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and it’ll surely be a candidate for Best Animated Feature come Oscar time. While summer 2013 saw a slew of animated features vying for attention, this season is different. How to Train Your Dragon 2 is really the only game in town with just Planes: Fire&Rescue coming in mid July. With a lack of the usual genre fare for family audiences, their demographic should flock to this.

A legit question is whether this could challenge Captain America: The Winter Soldier‘s $95 million debut which still stands as 2014’s highest. I don’t think it’ll quite get there, but it certainly wouldn’t shock me. I’ll predict it gets just past double what the first did out of the gate and it should have healthy legs in subsequent weekends.

How to Train Your Dragon 2 opening weekend prediction: $88.7 million

For my 22 Jump Street prediction, click here:

22 Jump Street Box Office Prediction

Oscar Watch: The Fault in Our Stars

It’s still mighty early in the year to be talking about Oscar contenders as probably nearly 100% have yet to be released. I’ve already touched on the somewhat longshot prospects of The Grand Budapest Hotel and the very likely possibility of this fall’s Foxcatcher receiving nods (Steve Carell is a shoo-in). You can read those posts here:

Oscar Watch: The Grand Budapest Hotel

Oscar Watch: Foxcatcher

However, this weekend brings the film adaptation of John Green’s wildly popular novel The Fault in Our Stars. The pic appears to be headed towards a massive opening weekend and it sits at a rock solid 83% on Rotten Tomatoes.

So is there any chance this could be nominated for Best Picture? Truth be told – not much of one. Then again it’s hard to gauge right now because we don’t know how strong this autumn’s offerings will be. If Fault is a mega-grosser and a good portion of the fall hopefuls disappoint, the stars could align.

While I’m not high on the film’s chances at Best Picture, a Best Actress nomination for Shailene Woodley seems more feasible. The actress has already been in the mix of awards discussions for 2011’s The Descendants and 2013’s The Spectacular Now and  she’s yet to be nominated. Woodley had a hit earlier this spring with Divergent and she’s drawn rave reviews for this. I wouldn’t bank on her receiving a Best Actress nod, but it’s certainly possible.

As always, I’ll update my Oscar hopefuls as they come out!

May Box Office Report: Winners and Losers

May kicked off the 2014 summer movie season and, per usual, there were successes and failures. There were ten wide releases during the month and, as I see it, there was a 40% success rate among them. Let’s talk about them in the May edition of Winners and Losers.

Winner: Neighbors

The only successful comedy of the month came with solid reviews (73% on Rotten Tomatoes) and robust box office (should top out close to $150 million). It marked the largest domestic opening ever for star Seth Rogen. Neighbors could end up as the season’s biggest grossing comedy, though 22 Jump Street may have something to say about that.

Loser: The Amazing Spider-Man 2

It isn’t that often you’ll see a movie that will gross just over $200 million be called a loser, but we have it here. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 received middling reviews and it will gross over $50M less than its predecessor from two years ago. Even worse, the original trilogy all grossed well over $300M with the first topping out at $403M. This is clearly a franchise that is not on the upswing (see what I did there?) and Sony needs to figure how to rectify it fast.

Winner: Godzilla

This is one is a winner with an asterisk. It opened at a terrific $93 million before suffering huge drop-offs in its second and third weekend. Still, it should reach over $200M and its international grosses are strong.

Loser: Blended

This marks another disappointment for Adam Sandler after recent flops Jack and Jill and That’s My Boy. This could struggle to make $50 million which will mark the lowest earner in the Sandler/Drew Barrymore trilogy. Grown Ups 3 anyone?

Winner: Maleficent

It only has one weekend under its belt, but the Disney title scored a strong $69 million and marked Angelina Jolie’s highest live-action all-time debut. With its A Cinemascore grade, long term prospects look encouraging.

Loser: Million Dollar Arm

Disney didn’t have as much luck here as the Jon Hamm sports drama got lost in the shuffle and is unlikely to reach $40 million. The studio was hoping it would reach the numbers of previous sports hits Miracle and Invincible, but it didn’t happen.

Winner: X-Men: Days of Future Past

Some thought this could be the biggest grossing flick of the franchise, but it will not top 2006’s The Last Stand and should be on equal footing with 2003’s X2. Still, it improved upon director predecessor’s First Class gross of $165 million and ensures the venerable series will continue.

Loser: A Million Ways to Die in the West

Two summers ago, Seth MacFarlane had the highest comedy grosser of the summer with Ted. This past weekend’s tepid $16.7M opening for West means it won’t even match what Ted did in its first weekend. Negative reviews didn’t help. For Seth, Ted 2 can’t come quick enough.

Loser: Legends of Oz: Dorothy’s Return

This one was an all-around disaster. It cost a reported $70 million to make and has only made a pathetic $8 million in four weeks. Ouch.

Loser: Moms’ Night Out

This faith-based comedy was thought of as a potential sleeper that could reach the female crowd. It didn’t and has only made $9 million in four weeks.

All in all, this was the lowest grossing May since 2010 and June will look to pick up the slack with How to Train Your Dragon 2, Transformers: Age of Extinction, 22 Jump Street, and The Fault in Our Stars, among others. You can rest assure I’ll have my June report up at month’s end!

Box Office Predictions: June 6-8

The June box office kicks off Friday with The Fault in Our Stars, the adaptation of John Green’s huge bestselling YA novel and the Tom Cruise sci-fi thriller Edge of Tomorrow. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/the-fault-in-our-stars-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/edge-of-tomorrow-box-office-prediction/

As you can see, I’m predicting big things for Fault and less than stellar results for Tomorrow. Truth be told, my estimates seem a bit higher than some on Fault and lower than others on Tomorrow. We shall see how it plays out and there’s the factor of Maleficent‘s second weekend. If my predictions don’t pan out, we could see a very real race between all three for the #1 spot, even though I’m saying it won’t happen.

The rest of the top five should be rounded out by holdovers X-Men: Days of Future Past and box office dud A Million Ways to Die in the West.

Here’s how I think it’ll play out:

1. The Fault in Our Stars

Predicted Gross: $43.1 million

2. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $34 million (representing a drop of 51%)

3. Edge of Tomorrow

Predicted Gross: $23.7 million

4. X-Men: Days of Future Past

Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. A Million Ways to Die in the West

Predicted Gross: $7.1 million (representing a drop of 57%)

Box Office Results (May 30-June 1)

Disney got Maleficent off to a rock solid start with Maleficent, which grossed $69.4 million in its debut – just ahead of my $66.2M projection. This marked the highest live-action opening ever for star Angelina Jolie.

In second was X-Men: Days of Future Past, which dropped further than I anticipated in weekend #2 with $32.5 million compared to my $37.1M estimate. While it’s doing well, Future will not reach the level of the highest grosser in the franchise The Last Stand from 2006.

The news was not good for Seth MacFarlane as his A Million Ways to Die in the West tanked with $16.7 million – less than half of my generous $33.6M prediction. Negative reviews likely contributed to the disastrous opening and West‘s entire domestic take should be less than what MacFarlane’s Ted made in its first weekend. Ouch.

Holdovers populated the remainder of top five with Godzilla in fourth at $12 million (below my $14.2M estimate) and Blended in fifth with $8.1 million (below my $9.6M projection).

That’s all for now friends!

Edge of Tomorrow Box Office Prediction

Described as sort of a sci-fi Groundhog Day, Tom Cruise headlines Edge of Tomorrow opening Friday and its release is a big box office question mark for Warner Bros. Directed by Bourne Identity and Mr. and Mrs. Smith‘s Doug Liman and costarring Emily Blunt and Bill Paxton, Tomorrow comes with a reported price tag of nearly $180 million dollars.

My suspicion is that it will need to do very well overseas to recoup its considerable budget. In its favor, Tomorrow is garnering rock solid reviews with a current 95% rating on Rotten Tomatoes. However, it has plenty going against it. Cruise is not the box office force he once was and only the fourth Mission: Impossible surpassed $100M in the last five years. While this would seem to be a picture that women may join their husbands for, they might be attending The Fault in Our Stars (or Maleficent) instead. Additionally, I feel the marketing campaign hasn’t done a great job of showing what Tomorrow is really about – other than being an expensive looking sci-fi flick.

In April of 2013, Cruise’s Oblivion got off to a promising $37 million start before its eventual $89 million domestic take. It’s certainly possible that Edge of Tomorrow could reach that number, but I’m skeptical. I feel it will likely open at around the quarter century mark and not reach $100M stateside when all is said and done.

Edge of Tomorrow opening weekend prediction: $23.7 million

For my The Fault in Our Stars prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/the-fault-in-our-stars-box-office-prediction/

The Fault in Our Stars Box Office Prediction

Based on an enormous bestselling novel from John Green, The Fault in Our Stars opens this Friday at the box office and it seems to be gaining momentum for a terrific opening.

Equipped with a minor $12 million budget, Fault stars Shailene Woodley and Ansel Elgort as two teenagers who meet at their cancer support group. The 2012 book has connected in a major way with YA readers in and its following is expected to bring in moviegoers. Fault should succeed in easily tripling its budget with its domestic opening weekend alone. This should continue a stellar 2014 for Woodley, in particular, whose Divergent this spring has earned #148 million stateside. I believe an opening in the $40M+ range is the most likely scenario meaning Fault should debut at the top spot.

The Fault in Our Stars opening weekend prediction: $43.1 million

For my Edge of Tomorrow prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/06/01/edge-of-tomorrow-box-office-prediction/

Box Office Predictions: May 30-June 1

The summer season keeps the potential blockbusters coming as the Disney tale Maleficent with Angelina Jolie and Seth MacFarlane’s Ted follow-up A Million Ways to Die in the West make their debuts this Friday. You can find my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/25/maleficent-box-office-prediction/

https://toddmthatcher.com/2014/05/25/a-million-ways-to-die-in-the-west-box-office-prediction/

I expect both newbies to post healthy debuts, though I expect Maleficent to take in nearly double the haul of A Million Ways. As for holdovers, the Memorial Day weekend champ X-Men: Days of Future Past got off to an impressive start and yet it’s likely to suffer a drop in the high 50s to low 60s in its sophomore weekend. This is not a sign that audiences that don’t like it (quite the contrary). It’s just that tent pole pics that debut over the holiday weekend always tend to suffer large drop-offs. If X-Men were to fall at the rate I anticipate, there could be a potential horse race between it and A Million Ways for the #2 position.

Godzilla (in weekend three) and Adam Sandler/Drew Barrymore flop Blended (in weekend two) should round out the top five.

And with that – my predictions for the weekend’s top five:

1. Maleficent

Predicted Gross: $66.2 million

2. X-Men: Days of Future Past

Predicted Gross: $37.1 million (representing a drop of 58%)

3. A Million Ways to Die in the West

Predicted Gross: $33.6 million

4. Godzilla

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (representing a drop of 54%)

5. Blended

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (representing a drop of 32%)

Box Office Results (May 23-26)

The Memorial Day weekend saw the X-Men franchise post its second highest debut ever as Days of Future Past earned $110.5 million over the four-day. This is just slightly below my $114.3M estimate. Only 2006’s X-Men: The Last Stand debuted stronger and this bodes well for future X adventures.

Meanwhile Godzilla fell further in its second weekend than nearly everyone figured with $38.4 million, well under my $50.6M projection. This indicates that audiences are not impressed with what they saw and aren’t recommending their friends see it. Still it’s earned enough to justify an inevitable sequel.

Adam Sandler and Drew Barrymore posted very lackluster results with their rom com Blended, which earned just $17.7 million over the holiday. I thought my estimate of $24.9M was on the low side, but audiences clearly weren’t too interested in what they were selling.

Rounding out the top five were holdovers Neighbors with $17.1 million (a bit under my $18.8M projection) and The Amazing Spider-Man 2 with $10 million (just under my $11M estimate).

That’s all for now folks!