DisneyNature unveils their latest animal documentary this Friday with Monkey Kingdom, narrated by Tina Fey. The doc follows a number of similarly themed pics put out by the studio in recent years, including Chimpanzee and Bears.
Chimpanzee faired well upon its release in 2012 with a $10.6 million debut. Monkey Kingdom would love to replicate that number. It might be tough. Last year’s Bears managed only $4.7 million out of the gate when it premiered on the same April weekend.
It could boil down to something as simple as this: do kids like monkeys more than bears? Probably and I believe that means Kingdom should beat the Bears opening, but not by much and not very close to what Chimpanzee accomplished.
Monkey Kingdom opening weekend prediction: $5.9 million
The genre of the found footage horror pic gains yet another entry with Unfriended, out Friday. The independent project was picked up by Universal Pictures after gaining positive word of mouth on the film festival circuit. Unfriended sits at a solid 83% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Still it’s hard to see Unfriended making much of a splash at the box office. I don’t see it quite reaching the $15 million earned by Woman in Black 2 earlier this year. Younger viewers may choose to wait to watch it on their computer screens which, by the way, is where this movie entirely takes place on. I’ll predict Unfriended manages to reach double digits and probably fade rather quickly.
Unfriended opening weekend prediction: $12.6 million
America’s favorite shopping area law enforcement agent returns to theaters as Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 opens this Friday. Kevin James is back as the title character over six years after the original became a surprise mega-hit. And it really did. The first flick opened to $31.8 million in January 2009 on its way to a $146 million domestic gross.
I don’t see the sequel posting those kinds of numbers. First off, six years is a lot of time between installments. And is there really a huge outcry for a second helping of Blart? While a debut around the original’s $30M mark seems unlikely, I could see it making around the $20 million range that James’s 2011 pic Zookeeper accomplished. Considering its reported $38 million budget, it should reap a nice profit for Columbia Pictures.
Paul Blart: Mall Cop 2 opening weekend prediction: $21.4 million
We’ve arrived at my top five most anticipated 2015 Summer Movies, set to start rolling out in about three weeks through the end of August. If you missed my first two posts covering numbers 15-6, have no fear, just click here:
This brings us to the heavy hitters on my list of must-see flicks for the season.
And away we go:
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
Release Date: May 15
As mentioned in my first post, this July’s Terminator: Genisys didn’t make my top 15 cut because of what I consider its blah trailer. Mad Max: Fury Road represents the opposite. It looks flat out awesome as director George Miller reboots the series some 35 years after the first Mad Max with Mel Gibson. Tom Hardy steps into the title role with Charlize Theron costarring.
4. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Release Date: July 31
Pushed up from its original December release date, Tom Cruise’s fifth Mission pic brings in his Jack Reacher director Christopher McQuarrie. Series regulars Ving Rhames, Jeremy Renner, and Simon Pegg are back and joined by Alec Baldwin. 2011’s Ghost Protocol was a high point for the franchise and let’s hope this keeps it going.
3. Jurassic World
Release Date: June 12
The famed dino franchise begun by Spielberg gets a reboot with director Colin Trevorrow taking over and Star Lord himself Chris Pratt and Bryce Dallas Howard headlining. The trailer has me ready to return to that dastardly park immediately.
2. Tomorrowland
Release Date: May 22
Disney has enlisted their Incredibles director Brad Bird (he also directed the aforementioned Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol) for this live-action tale featuring George Clooney, Britt Robertson, and Hugh Laurie. The plot is being kept under wraps, but the trailer suggests a visual feast. With Bird behind the camera, expect something special.
1. Avengers: Age of Ultron
Release Date: May 1
The first picture of the summer is my most awaited and is certainly poised to be the season’s highest earner. Three years after teaming Iron Man, Captain America, Hulk, Thor, Black Widow, Hawkeye and more – Joss Whedon is back again directing Marvel’s superhero team in the breathlessly awaited sequel to the second highest grossing domestic earner of all time. James Spader voices the title character villain. Don’t be surprised if this has the largest opening weekend in box office history – beating out, yes, The Avengers.
And that’ll do it, friends! I hope my list assists you with your popcorn viewing pleasure coming very soon…
We move forward into the Top Ten with numbers 10-6 before my final installment tomorrow revealing the top five.
Let’s get to it!
10. Ted 2
Release Date: June 26
Seth MacFarlane’s Ted was the comedic hit of summer 2012 with its foul talking teddy bear. Mark Wahlberg is back, though Mila Kunis is out with Amanda Seyfried in. Comedy sequels are a risky proposition, but let’s hope MacFarlane can recapture the magic he made three years ago (and couldn’t duplicate with last summer’s mediocre A Million Ways to Die in the West).
9. Straight Outta Compton
Release Date: August 14
F. Gary Gray, the man responsible for several music videos featuring the film’s subjects as well as Friday and The Italian Job, directs the musical bio of NWA – the highly influential gangsta rap group that included Dr. Dre, Ice Cube, and Eazy-E. Dre and Cube serve as producers.
8. Trainwreck
Release Date: July 17
Judd Apatow had a one two punch of comedy classics with 2005’s The 40 Year Old Virgin and 2007’s Knocked Up. His follow-ups, Funny People and This is 40, were just OK. Trainwreck is said to be a return to form based on word of mouth, with comedian Amy Schumer primed for a breakout starring role. Bill Hader and Lebron James (!) co-star.
7. Ant-Man
Release Date: July 17
The last time Marvel Studios had a feature thought to be outside the box and risky, it was last summer’s Guardians of the Galaxy and it turned out to be the season’s biggest hit. This studio knows what they’re doing and here we have Paul Rudd playing the title character with Michael Douglas and Evangeline Lilly in supporting roles.
6. Aloha
Release Date: May 29
For the past decade, Cameron Crowe’s filmography has been unimpressive with Elizabethtown and We Bought a Zoo. Let us not forget, though, that this is the man that brought us Say Anything, Jerry Maguire, and Almost Famous. Crowe’s latest is a romantic comedy with a truly impressive cast – Bradley Cooper (hot off American Sniper), Emma Stone, Bill Murray, Rachel McAdams, Alec Baldwin, and Danny McBride.
And that’ll do it for now, folks! Top five coming at you tomorrow…
In less than one month, the Summer 2015 Movie Season will be upon us! That means studios will be bringing out their big wannabe blockbusters with sequels, reboots, animated tales, comic book heroes, and a surprisingly robust group of potentially intriguing comedies.
Therefore, I am bringing you my personal 15 most anticipated summer movies for the year. Let me talk briefly about some pictures that didn’t quite make the cut. I left off animated fare such as Pixar’s Inside Out and Despicable Me spin-off Minions. Same goes for Pitch Perfect 2, Magic Mike XXL and the film version of HBO’s Entourage. And then there’s a film I figured would make the cut: Terminator: Genisys that marks Arnold Schwarzenegger’s return to his iconic role after 12 years. Why? Quite frankly, I wasn’t crazy about the trailer. Don’t get me wrong – I’m still highly curious to watch it.
I will be breaking up my list in three installments and we begin this evening with numbers 15-11. Subsequent posts covering the top ten will arrive Friday and Saturday.
Let’s get to it, shall we?
15. Spy
Release Date: June 5
Originally, I probably wouldn’t have figured Melissa McCarthy’s new comedy would make the cut. That’s until reviews from screenings at South by Southwest came out and they indicate this is the star’s best feature so far. It doesn’t hurt that Paul Feig, director of McCarthy’s Bridesmaids and The Heat is behind the camera. Jude Law, Rose Byrne, and Jason Statham co-star.
14. Masterminds
Release Date: August 14
From the director of Napoleon Dynamite comes this heist comedy with a killer cast: Zach Galifianakis, Kristin Wiig, Owen Wilson, and Jason Sudeikis. The trailer inspires hope.
13. Vacation
Release Date: July 31
Yes, they’re rebooting the Vacation franchise with Ed Helms and Leslie Mann as grown-up Rusty and Audrey and Chevy Chase and Beverly D’Angelo back as Clark and Ellen. Christina Applegate, Chris Hemsworth, and Charlie Day round out the cast. Here’s to hoping this is more like the original and Christmas Vacation than Vegas Vacation. No trailer has been released at press time.
12. Southpaw
Release Date: July 24
Jake Gyllenhall has been on a roll lately choosing his projects, including last year’s terrific Nightcrawler. This sports drama sees him playing a boxer with serious family issues. It also sees him heavily bulked up in a pic that could get awards attention, like 2010’s The Fighter. Antoine Fuqua directs (he made Training Day and The Equalizer) and Rachel McAdams and Forest Whitaker co-star.
11. Fantastic Four
Released Date: August 7
The first two installments of the famed Marvel comic books (the ones with Jessica Alba and Michael Chiklis) were decent size hits, however critics didn’t approve. This reboot comes from Chronicle director Josh Trank with a cast that includes Miles Teller, Kate Mara, and Michael B. Jordan and it will attempt to begin the franchise anew.
And that’s all for now! Numbers 10-6 coming at you tomorrow…
Only one newcomer is going against the second weekend of Furious 7 as the romantic drama The Longest Ride debuts, based on the Nicholas Sparks bestseller. You can find my detailed prediction post on it right here:
I will readily admit that Ride has the potential to open bigger than my prediction. My estimate comes from the belief it will barely outdo the last Sparks adaptation, The Best of Me, which underwhelmed in its performance last year. Still, it could also serve as shrewd counter programming to Furious 7. As predicted, however, I have it landing in third.
There is no doubt that Furious will easily repeat at #1 after its massive and record setting debut this past weekend (more on that below). It’s sure to suffer a healthy decline in weekend #2, but little else could be expected after opening so big.
I have the animated Home remaining #2, though it could find itself in a close race with Ride. As for the rest of the top five, I have Cinderella remaining in fourth, as it should suffer a smaller decline than Get Hard.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Furious 7
Predicted Gross: $56.5 million (representing a drop of 61%)
2. Home
Predicted Gross: $15.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)
3. The Longest Ride
Predicted Gross: $12.2 million
4. Cinderella
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 37%)
5. Get Hard
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million (representing a drop of 54%)
Box Office Results (April 3-5)
The seventh edition of the Fast and Furious franchise raced into the history books with the heftiest April opening in box office history with an astounding $147.1 million, speeding beyond my $117.4M prediction. That is good for the ninth largest premiere of all time. The series has been on an incredible hot streak lately. Paul Walker’s final screen appearance also may have added a curiosity factor for some.
Dropping to second was Home in weekend #2 with $27 million, a bit below my $29.3M estimate. The Dreamworks animated tale has done well so far with $95 million in the bank.
The critically panned Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart comedy suffered a big drop in its sophomore frame with $13.1 million, under my $15.4M prediction. It’s earned $57 million and is highly unlikely to reach the century mark.
Cinderella was fourth with $10.1 million, on target with my $9.8M projection. The Disney live-action adaptation stands at $167M. Insurgent was fifth as it also grossed $10.1 million (just under my $10.9M prediction). Its three-week total is at $103M and it will surely gross less than its predecessor Divergent.
This Friday, the latest romantic drama adapted from Nicholas Spark hits the screen with The Longest Ride. The film would love to get to the numbers accomplished by The Notebook, Dear John, and Safe Haven. Britt Robertson and Scott Eastwood headline with Jack Huston and Alan Alda in the supporting cast.
A good portion of the Sparks adaptations have done terrific business at the box office, but last year’s The Best of Me broke that streak with a tepid $10 million debut and eventual $35 million domestic gross. My gut tells me The Longest Ride is more likely to follow suit with that as opposed to blockbusters like 2013’s Safe Haven. It could perhaps open bigger as female counter programming to Furious 7‘s second weekend, but I’m doubtful.
I’ll predict this manages to outdo The Best of Me by a hair.
The Longest Ride opening weekend prediction: $12.2 million
2011’s Horrible Bosses was a better than average raunchy comedy that will most be remembered for showing a whole new side to Jennifer Aniston, which assisted in achieving some shock value. It helped that it was headlined by three highly talented comedic leads – Jason’s Bateman and Sudeikis and Charlie Day. When it turned into a surprise blockbuster with a $117 million domestic gross, the bosses at Warner Bros decided we needed a sequel.
We didn’t.
Horrible Bosses 2 contains only hints of what the original a reasonable success. The sequel pines to remind us of what we dug about its predecessor. Kevin Spacey and Jamie Foxx reprise their roles but their parts aren’t as humorous as the first go round. Aniston is back, but that aforementioned shock value is long gone. The three leads have an undeniable chemistry which again isn’t as strong as when they were dealing with their original nefarious employers.
It’s actually Chris Pine who turns in the most unexpectedly winning performance. Captain Kirk hasn’t had much opportunity to show his comedy skills and he has them. He plays the spoiled son of a rich investor (a totally wasted Christoph Waltz) who bilks our trio out of their new business venture called The Shower Buddy (not really worth explaining). He is really the only new and worthy addition to the proceedings. The rest is primarily stale sex jokes. Lots of them.
The contrived plot (you can bet a sequel for this was never planned) involves the leads setting up a scheme to kidnap Pine. Their plans necessitate conspiring with their old foes Spacey and Foxx and Aniston because star power is key. Yet those three contributed a lot to the 2011 pic and the same cannot be said now.
Even a less than desirable follow up is bound to have laugh inducing moments with this cast. The ratio isn’t horrible, but it’s not impressive either.
It’s Easter weekend at the box office and Furious 7, the seventh installment of the wildly popular Fast and Furious franchise, looks to set the all-time April opening weekend record and mark the largest debut of 2015 so far. My prediction has it managing both. My detailed prediction post can be read here:
With Furious being the only new player this weekend (any direct competitors smartly got out of the way), that just leaves holdovers. Dreamworks animated Home had a much higher premiere than anyone (especially me) anticipated. It should dip by the low 40s in its sophomore frame.
The Will Ferrell/Kevin Hart comedy Get Hard also experienced a solid opening, but it looks poised for a heftier fall in weekend two. Insurgent and Cinderella should round out the top five.
And with that, my predictions for the holiday weekend:
1. Furious 7
Predicted Gross: $117.4 million
2. Home
Predicted Gross: $29.3 million (representing a drop of 43%)
3. Get Hard
Predicted Gross: $15.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)
4. Insurgent
Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (representing a drop of 49%)
5. Cinderella
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million (representing a drop of 42%)
Box Office Results (March 27-29)
As mentioned, the animated Home surpassed everyone’s expectations with a stealthy $52.1 million debut, rocketing beyond my meager $24.6M projection. Clearly, family audiences were ready for something new and decided there was no place like Home this weekend.
Get Hard had a solid opening with $33.8 million, a bit above my $30.3M prediction. On the flip side, it earned a mediocre B Cinemascore grade and was savaged by critics, so it seems destined to fade pretty quickly.
Last week’s champ Insurgent fell to third with $21.5 million in weekend #2, a bit below my $24M estimate. It is currently lagging behind the pace that its predecessor Divergent accomplished and the two week total stands at $85 million.
Cinderella was fourth with $17 million, under my $19.1M projection. The Disney hit’s total is currently at $149 million.
The critically lauded indie horror pic It Follows opened fifth with a commendable $3.8 million on just 1200 screens, outpacing my $2.7M prediction.
In sixth was Kingsman: The Secret Service at $2.9 million, just under my $3.5M projection. Its total is at $119 million.
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