Based on a video game series, the action spectacle Hitman: Agent 47 hits theaters next Friday and it may be a prime example of a late August summer release that gets lost in the shuffle. The pic was originally meant to be a starring vehicle for Paul Walker before his death in 2013.
Stepping into the lead role is Rupert Friend, one of the stars of Showtime’s “Homeland”. The supporting cast includes Hannah Ware, Zachary Quinto, and Ciaran Hinds. While 20th Century Fox has been promoting Hitman with plenty of TV spots, I’m just not sure how this breaks through with other action fare like Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation and The Man from U.N.C.L.E. out there.
As I see it, Hitman: Agent 47 would be very lucky to top double digits out of the gate and I don’t really think it gets too close to that.
Hitman: Agent 47 opening weekend prediction: $6 million
Sinister 2 opens next Friday and hopes to replicate the success of its 2012 predecessor that became a sleeper hit. This time around, expectations may be a little higher but I’m not convinced it’ll even reach the domestic take of its predecessor.
The original Sinister capitalized on solid reviews and opened to a robust $18 million in October 2012 on its way to a $48 million domestic haul. The sequel only finds one returning cast member with James Ransone as a cop. Ethan Hawke, the film’s original star, is nowhere to be found which makes sense if you’ve seen the picture.
While horror enthusiasts mostly regarded Sinister with approval, I’m not so sure fans will rush out to see its sequel. I believe Sinister 2 will have a tough time even matching the $18M mark and an opening in the mid teens seems more likely.
Sinister 2 opening weekend prediction: $16.2 million
A lot has happened in the film careers of Jesse Eisenberg and Kristen Stewart since they starred in 2009’s Adventureland. Eisenberg earned an Oscar nod for The Social Network, starred in 2013’s summer sleeper hit Now You See Me, and got himself cast as Lex Luthor in next year’s Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice. Stewart furthered her star status with more Twilight pics and Snow White and the Huntsman. Now the pair reunite for American Ultra, an action comedy out next Friday. I am highly skeptical this movie will be among their big earners.
Ultra has a supporting cast that includes Topher Grace, Connie Britton, Walton Goggins, Bill Pullman, and Tony Hale. The pic seems to be flying a bit under the radar. Solid reviews could assist yet I wonder whether this manages to even post double digits in its opening. Ultra should have no trouble topping the $5.7 million debut of Adventureland (at least I think), but I will project it falls just under $10 million and likely fades fast.
American Ultra opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
Two high profile releases open up this weekend as the N.W.A. biopic Straight Outta Compton and Guy Ritchie spy thriller The Man from U.N.C.L.E. debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each right here:
As I see it, these two newbies should take the top two spots on the charts. I look for Compton to dominate with U.N.C.L.E. having a rather lackluster premiere in the runner-up position.
When it comes to holdovers, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop to third after two weekends in the #1 spot. I look for Fantastic Four to fall hard after its disastrous opening this past weekend (more on that below). The Gift should round out the top five in its sophomore frame.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
Straight Outta Compton
Predicted Gross: $39.3 million
2. The Man from U.N.C.L.E.
Predicted Gross: $18.6 million
3. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $14.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)
4. Fantastic Four
Predicted Gross: $11.1 million (representing a drop of 56%)
5. The Gift
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million (representing a drop of 46%)
Box Office Results (August 7-9)
Let’s get what I got right out of the way. Though I didn’t have it at #1, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation managed to stay on top with $28.5 million, on pace with my $28.1M prediction. In ten days, the Tom Cruise sequel has taken in $107 million.
Now… to the Fantastic Four. Wow. 20th Century Fox’s reboot hoped to start a new franchise but the critically drubbed comic book pic landed with a thud at $25.6 million, way below my $47.7M estimate. This is a truly horrible opening for its genre and its dismal C- Cinemascore average marks the worst ever for a superhero flick. Most of its publicity was negative, including creative differences with the studio and director Josh Trank. That coupled with possible superhero pic fatigue doomed this project and it’s hard to envision a Fantastic Four 2 coming out ever… or at least anytime in the near future until the studio assesses what went so very wrong.
Thriller The Gift debuted third with a reasonable $11.8 million. I incorrectly had it performing better with $16.8M, but this is still a sturdy opening for a low-budget flick with no big box office draws. Solid reviews likely helped.
Holdovers populated the four and five spots and I incorrectly had them both outside the top five. Vacation was fourth in weekend two with $8.9 million for a $37M total so far and Marvel’s Ant-Man was fifth with $7.9 million for a $147M haul.
Two other newcomers fell considerably below my projections. Meryl Streep’s Ricki and the Flash sputtered with just $6.6 million for a seventh place start (I predicted $11.4M). The stop motion animated pic Shaun the Sheep Movie fared worse with only $4 million for an 11th place showing (I said $8.2M).
Telling the story of one of hip hop music’s most iconic groups, Straight Outta Compton hits theaters next Friday and could be poised for a stealthy debut. Centering on the story of N.W.A. and its members Dr. Dre, Ice Cube, Eazy E, MC Ren and DJ Yella, Compton is directed by F. Gary Gray, who made music videos for Dre and Cube back in the day prior to becoming an accomplished maker of Friday and The Italian Job, among others. A cast of relative unknowns formulate the cast with the exception of Paul Giamatti as band manager Jerry Heller. Cube’s son O’Shea Jackson Jr. plays his pop.
Fans of the hip hop genre should flock to this. Shot on a meager $25 million budget, it stands to top that (probably easily) in its first weekend. Dre and Cube served as executive producers and Dre has a highly awaited album coming out tomorrow that’s inspired by the film. Reviews have been strong with a current rating of 91% on Rotten Tomatoes.
While Compton is unlikely to reach the heights of Eminem’s 8 Mile ($51 million debut) in 2002 when that artist was at the top of his drawing power, I think believe Compton should rule its weekend. I believe it could approach and maybe surpass $40 million for its premiere, I’ll go just a tad under.
Straight Outta Compton opening weekend prediction: $39.3 million
For my The Man from U.N.C.L.E. prediction, click here:
A summer action pic based on a popular 1960s spy TV show? No, not Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation, but The Man from U.N.C.L.E. which opens next Friday. Don’t expect this to reach close to Rogue numbers. Sherlock Holmes director Guy Ritchie is behind the camera with Man of Steel Henry Cavill and Lone Ranger Armie Hammer in the leads. Ex Machina’s Alicia Vikander and Hugh Grant are among the supporting players.
While the marketing campaign has been fairly robust, it’s hard to see U.N.C.L.E. breaking through in any significant way. Straight Outta Compton, debuting the same day, appears poised for a splashy start while Fantastic Four will be entering weekend #2 with Rogue Nation likely doing pretty strong biz in its third frame. None of the stars here are capable of opening a picture and familiarity with the TV show from 50 years is limited.
Add that up and I’ll predict this $75 million budgeted effort doesn’t reach $20 million out of the gate.
The Man from U.N.C.L.E. opening weekend prediction: $18.6 million
For my Straight Outta Compton prediction, click here:
August brings in four new titles for moviegoers to consider this weekend: the big budget reboot of Fantastic Four, psychological thriller The Gift, Meryl Streep’s comedic drama Ricki and the Flash, and British stop motion animated pic Shaun the Sheep Movie. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
I actually expect all four newbies to find themselves in the top five. Fantastic Four should have no trouble opening at #1, though I must say the anticipation for this seems less than your typical comic book movie.
After its strong debut, Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation should drop to second, losing about half its audience. My predictions have The Gift having a robust opening at third with Ricki and the Flash and Shaun the Sheep Movie rounding out the top five. Due to its less than anticipated roll out over the weekend, Vacation should fall out of the top five in only its second frame.
And with that, my top five predictions for the weekend:
1. Fantastic Four
Predicted Gross: $47.7 million
2. Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation
Predicted Gross: $28.1 million (representing a drop of 49%)
3. The Gift
Predicted Gross: $16.8 million
4. Ricki and the Flash
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie
Predicted Gross: $8.2 million
Box Office Results (July 31-August 2)
Tom Cruise’s fifth appearance as super agent Ethan Hunt in Mission: Impossible – Rogue Nation posted positive results as the critically acclaimed sequel earned $55.5 million, a bit above my $52.3M. This finds the franchise in very good shape and a sixth flick has already been confirmed.
Meanwhile, the critically drubbed Vacation reboot got off to a shaky start with $14.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $21 million since its Wednesday premiere. This is below my respective estimates of $17.1M and $24.7M. With a middling B score from Cinemascore, I don’t see this holding up well as moviegoers mostly rejected a return to Wally World.
As for holdovers, Ant-Man dropped to third after two weeks on top with $12.8 million compared to my $11.4M projection. The Marvel pic has amassed $132 million so far. Minions took fourth with $12.3 million, in line with my $11.8M prediction and its total stands at $287 million. The Adam Sandler dud Pixels was fifth with $10.5 million in weekend two, right on target with my $10.3M estimate. Its weak cume is $45 million. Trainwreck was sixth with $9.6 million (I said $10.2M) and it’s made $79 million in three weeks. Southpaw dipped a bit further in its sophomore weekend than I foresaw with $7.6 million compared to my $9.5M projection for a $31 million total so far.
For a hip hop fan like myself, I recognize that I’m lucky to have grown up in what I consider the golden age of the genre: the early to middle portion of the 1990s. It was a time of Wu Tang Clan and the Notorious B.I.G. and Tupac Shakur. It’s when Outkast and Jay Z and Nas started their careers. It’s also the unforgettable era of Death Row Records – with its notorious co-founder Suge Knight. It is, of course, the label that gave us Snoop Doggy Dogg and Tha Dogg Pound. Most notably, it’s other founder is Dr. Dre, the beat maker behind legendary rap group N.W.A. That rap quintet will be the subject of Straight Outta Compton, out August 14th. The pic is already generating positive buzz.
Speaking of positive buzz, the first release on the Death Row label was The Chronic, released in late 1992. It is a Dre solo album, though none of his works actually are. It featured a smorgasbord of guest stars that Dre allowed to shine – Snoop, Kurupt, Daz, Nate Dogg, Lady of Rage and more. It gave us classics like “Ain’t Nuthin But a G Thang”, “Dre Day”, “Let Me Ride” and more. The funk drenched gangsta rap epic is often called the finest rap album of all time. I don’t disagree.
Flash forward to 1999. Dre had left Death Row three years prior amid issues with Suge and formed new label Aftermath. The long wait between Dre albums had been made easier with his production work in between – on Snoop’s brilliant debut Doggystyle, Pac’s All Eyez on Me album and others. Chronic 2001 came in late 1999 with a difficult charge to keep – holding up compared to his first “solo” work. It did. Chronic 2001 was another masterpiece, complete with assists from Dre’s new protégés Eminem and Xzhibit, as well as Snoop. Singles like “Still DRE”, “Forgot About Dre”, and “What’s the Difference?” tore up the charts.
And then… The music stopped. Sort of. While rap’s most ingenious producer kept putting out hits from Eminem works to Mary J. Blige’s “Family Affair” to 50 Cent’s anthem “In Da Club”, the music community kept waiting for Dre’s promised album Detox. And waiting. And waiting.
Detox was announced as his first final solo album. Official word of its eventual release was first discussed in 2001. Known as an extreme perfectionist, fans just assumed he was taking his time. A lot of time. Finally it late 2010, it seemed Dre’s long gestating project was finally coming to fruition. A first single featuring Snoop – “Kush” – was put out. A follow up track “I Need a Doctor” with Eminem quickly followed. And then radio silence again.
In recent years, Dre has been known more for his successful line of headphones that’s made him a billionaire. The hope of a new album with his name on it seemed unlikely at best. And then… some news broke over the weekend from the Doctor himself. He has made a brand spanking new album called Compton – The Soundtrack, inspired by the film out in two weeks. It features, among others, previous collaborators like Snoop, Ice Cube, and Eminem. And after 16 years of anticipation – Dre casually announced that it’ll be out Friday. As in THIS Friday, August 7th!! For hip hop lovers, it’s tough to properly describe how exciting this news is.
I’ll sort of try. The first two Chronic albums are essentially the rap version of the first two Godfather movies. They’re untouchable and pretty much perfect master works that hold up as well today as when they were released. For many who proclaimed hip hop a fad and “not real music”, Dre provided a prescription of stunning production that made their argument tougher to make. The Godfather comparison is not one I would make lightly, but the comparison is deserved.
And the news that we are at last getting another album from this certified genius was music to my ears. We shall learn Friday if it’s worth the wait. The Godfather comparisons continue. Sixteen years passed between the release of part II and the much lesser received Part III. It will be coincidentally be the same passage of time between Chronic 2001 and Compton. I am hopeful the Doc has some more wonderful work left in him. Frankly, he rarely disappoints. Therefore, I will be his willing patient on August 7. Friday, to be sure, will be Dre Day.
Family audiences are given another summer offering in the form of the Shaun the Sheep Movie, a British stop motion animated feature being released stateside Friday. It’s based on the European TV show that’s spun off from the Wallace and Gromit series. Shaun has already been released in the United Kingdom where it’s performed well.
Still, solid grosses across the pond may not equate to brisk business in this country. While reviews have been universally strong and it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes, this particular sheep may not have American kids flocking to the multiplex. See what I did there?
While Shaun is premiering on a wide 2200 reported screens, I believe family audiences here will mostly ignore this title and it will struggle to even reach double digits at the start.
Shaun the Sheep Movie opening weekend prediction: $8.2 million
Oscar winning director Jonathan Demme and Oscar winning screenwriter Diablo Cody bring us the comedic drama Ricki and the Flash, out Friday. The film stars frequent Oscar winner Meryl Streep in the role of a rock star who abandoned her family for stardom with the actress’s real life daughter Mamie Gummer portraying her movie daughter. Kevin Kline and musician Rick Springfield are among the supporting players.
TriStar Pictures is hoping that Ricki’s numbers will be assisted by a sizable female and adult audience. It could work to an extent, but despite the pedigree involved, the pic isn’t really generating awards buzz. It’s hard to see the ceiling for this being greater than high teens though I’m skeptical it’ll reach that gross out of the gate. I believe a debut in the lower single digits is the more likely scenario.
Ricki and the Flash opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million
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