Author: toddmthatcher

Star Wars: The Force Awakens Box Office Prediction

It is not only the most anticipated film of the year but probably of the 21st century. This is not hyperbole. 38 years after George Lucas changed the movie industry forever with Star Wars, the baton has been passed to J.J. Abrams with Star Wars: The Force Awakens, out December 18. We’ve seen over a decade pass since the unevenly received second trilogy that ran from 1999-2005. This marked the end of Mr. Lucas’s involvement in the franchise and the end of 20th Century Fox producing the entries (no iconic Fox music before “In a galaxy far, far away” may take a little getting used to).

Instead we have Disney taking over the most beloved franchise in silver screen history and we’ve repeatedly seen their brilliance at marketing blockbusters (think Marvel Cinematic Universe). The Force Awakens has been omnipresent for months and it’s ramped up to the point where every other commercial seems to be connected somehow to it. The official trailers and TV spots have been events. It’s sold $100 million dollars at press time in pre-sale tickets, which was previously an unimaginable haul. With all the exposure, the studio has done a truly remarkable job in keeping plot details under wraps.

We know this: original trilogy stars Mark Hamill, Harrison Ford, and Carrie Fisher return in the iconic roles of Luke Skywalker, Han Solo, and Princess Leia. A new generation makes up the supporting cast that includes John Boyega, Oscar Isaac, Daisy Ridley, Adam Driver, and Domhnall Gleeson. Oh and there’s Chewbacca, R2-D2, and C-3PO.

For those of us old enough to remember the breathless anticipation afforded to 1999’s Star Wars Episode 1: The Phantom Menace, it’s probably the only thing that compares in the past couple of decades. There are many hotly anticipated blockbusters but Star Wars is simply on a different planet.

So now the nine figure question: how much will The Force Awakens earn its opening weekend? How much is it capable of making? Will its debut set the all time record? Fascinating queries indeed, these are.

We begin with this: the current record holder came out just this summer when Jurassic World earned $208.8 million, which edged out previous champ The Avengers at $207 million. I’m sure Disney would love to get that record back that the dinosaurs took away in June. These are the only two pictures that have made over $200M out of the gate. Both were released in summer, as are seven of the all time top ten domestic premieres.

None came out in December and this is not an inconsequential point. In fact, the current highest December debut belongs to The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. It made $84 million and that’s good for just the 57th largest opening ever. Truth be told, even massive blockbusters that open in December usually open smaller than they might in the summer. 2009’s Avatar began with $77 million before becoming the biggest stateside grosser ever. The reason is simple: Christmas time releases tend to play well over multiple weekends while similar summer titles make the bulk of their coin immediately.

Let’s dispatch with the glaringly obvious: The Force Awakens will obliterate the December record. At worst, it should double The Hobbit’s initial earnings. Frankly, guessing what Star Wars is capable of is a dicey proposition, but the low end of estimates is around $170-$175 million. If it managed that, it would sincerely be a fine start.

Yet there is a suspicion that Jurassic’s six month long record could be headed for extinction. The combo of Disney hype and a true love across all ages for the series has contributed to an Event Experience we rarely witness. What’s the highest it could go? Honestly, I don’t know. The figure of $300 million has been mentioned. That seems a bit crazy, but you just never know. There’s part of me that believes $275-$280 million might just be reachable and another that feels it could fall short of the record with around $185-$205 million.

What’s a box office predicting blogger to do? Split the difference. With this wide range of possibilities, I’ll project that Star Wars: The Force Awakens will achieve the best American opening ever and by a rather considerable margin. I’ll be one among many speculating over the next ten days before its debut, but my two cents is in, my friends. Let’s see what happens!

Star Wars: The Force Awakens opening weekend prediction: $234.7 million

For my Sisters prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/sisters-box-office-prediction/

For my Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Road Chip prediction, click here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/10/alvin-and-the-chipmunks-the-road-chip-box-office-prediction/

Joy’s Oscar Bubble Bursts

Just one week ago, I wrote a blog post detailing the Oscar prospects for David O. Russell’s latest Joy, which comes out on Christmas. Seven days ago, I believed its prospects for a nomination in Best Picture were still fairly decent. Some of this was due to Mr. Russell’s track record over the decade. His last three pictures – The Fighter, Silver Linings Playbook, American Hustle – all were nominated, as was Russell. Those three movies represent an astounding 11 acting nominations with three wins. And the advance word of mouth on Joy was cautiously optimistic enough that I still felt it stood a good shot at Academy attention.

What a difference a week makes. The official embargo on Joy reviews was lifted this morning and a clearer picture has emerged. Bottom line: Joy will not be nominated for Best Picture. David O. Russell will not be nominated for Director. None of the supporting players that includes Robert De Niro, Bradley Cooper, Edgar Ramirez, Virginia Madsen, Diane Ladd, and Isabella Rossellini will hear their names called. Reviews have been extremely mixed. While some critics have heaped praised, other prominent reviewers have called it his worst movie. While the number is bound to fluctuate, it currently stands at just 53% on Rotten Tomatoes. The Fighter? 90%. Silver Linings Playbook? 92%. American Hustle? 93%. You get the idea.

The only bright spot is that Jennifer Lawrence’s inclusion in Best Actress still appears be solid. Writers have singled out her work and the superstar looks to land her third recognition in a row for a Russell directed effort.

The Joy bubble bursting will surely give rise to another film that many prognosticators had under their bubbles for Picture predictions, including my own. This could represent good news for pictures ranging from Mad Max: Fury Road to Creed to Son of Saul to Anomalisa to The Big Short.

One thing is nearly certain: Russell’s joyful Oscar streak looks to be finished.

Box Office Predictions: December 11-13

Call it the call before an intergalactic storm as the second week of December brings just one new entry: Ron Howard’s In the Heart of the Sea with Chris Hemsworth. The film has picked up decent reviews (65% on Rotten Tomatoes) yet it seems to be flying a bit under the radar and it posted disappointing results in its overseas debut over the weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

https://toddmthatcher.com/2015/12/03/in-the-heart-of-the-sea-box-office-prediction/

Even with my predicted mediocre opening for Sea, it shouldn’t have much trouble premiering at #1 as the rest of the top five should consist of holdovers The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2, Krampus, Creed, and The Good Dinosaur. Comedic holiday horror fest Krampus had a better than anticipated opening (more on that below), but it should suffer the largest drop-off as that genre usually does.

All in all, it should be a pretty quiet weekend before the box office juggernaut Star Wars: The Force Awakens looks to demolish records the following week. And I’ll have my individual prediction post on that pic up later this week!

With that, my top five predictions for the weekend:

  1. In the Heart of the Sea

Predicted Gross: $18.4 million

2. The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 2

Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 44%)

3. The Good Dinosaur

Predicted Gross: $9.4 million (representing a drop of 39%)

4. Creed

Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 39%)

5. Krampus

Predicted Gross: $7.3 million (representing a drop of 54%)

Box Office Results (December 4-6)

As expected, it was a quiet post Thanksgiving weekend at the box office as The Hunger Games: Mockingjay Part 1 managed to stay on top for the third weekend in a row. The bright spot was Krampus, which exceeded the expectations of prognosticators by a nice margin.

Katniss and company ruled the charts with $18.8 million, right in line with my $18.5M estimate and the final chapter in the franchise has taken in $227M.

Krampus soared past my $7.1 million projection to earn $16.2 million for a solid runner-up showing. The mostly well reviewed horror comedy, as mentioned, surpassed nearly all estimates.

Disney/Pixar’s The Good Dinosaur continued to show disappointing results with $15.3 million in weekend #2, below my $18.7M prediction. It stands at $75 million at press time and is in very real danger of being Pixar’s lowest domestic grosser of all time.

The critically hailed Creed made $14.9 million in its sophomore frame, a bit below my $16.4M estimate for an overall haul of $64M. A gross of over $100M seems within reach.

Finally, Spectre rounded out the top five with $5.5 million, in range with my $6M projection for a total of $184M.

And that’s all for now, folks! Until next time…

Goodnight Mommy Movie Review

The Austrian horror pic Goodnight Mommy gained some fairly significant attention stateside due to its hauntingly effective and hair raising trailer. The trailer is a work of art. The film itself? Well, it’s not without its merits for genre lovers. And it isn’t without its flaws.

Mommy takes place almost entirely at a remote lake house in Austria where the “Mommy” (Susanne Wuest) has just returned back after cosmetic surgery to her face. This leaves her with heavy bandages around her dome that are quite creepy. She is mother to twin 10 year old boys (real life twins Elias and Lukas Schwarz). Upon her return from her mysterious operation, they immediately notice that something seems off with her. She’s more temperamental. It gets to the point where the boys become convinced that Mommy is not Mommy at all and this sets a course from some disturbing set pieces and seriously questionable parenting.

Horror aficionados will likely eat up the sequences involving giant roaches and gut churning uses for Super Glue. However, this just applies to the art house crowd. Goodnight Mommy is by no means mainstream and I suspect many a casual genre fan will be let down. For starters, this is not to be judged by its considerably better trailer. Second, while the arty crowd may not mind the “twist” involved that can perhaps purposely be seen from a mile away, it hindered the process for me.

It’s a nice touch having real life twins play the scared youngsters here and the Schwarz brothers work well together. Wuest capably balances her complex role which alternates between being terrifying and being terrified. The production design with its off kilter and dispassionate home setting is first rate.

All in all, a jaw dropping moment here and there in Goodnight Mommy can’t really overcome the general obviousness of it all. I’ll give directors Veronika Franz and Severin Fiala credit for showing some promise to build on, but this movie will be remembered best for its magnificent preview watched by millions on YouTube and not the final product.

**1/2 (out of four)

Los Angeles and Boston Shine a Spotlight

As critics organizations have started handing out their year end best of honors starting last week, two stories have stood in the forefront: the love fest enveloping Mad Max: Fury Road and the lack of attention to what many consider to be Oscar’s soft front runner. That would be Tom McCarthy’s Spotlight, the true life story of Boston Globe reporters exposing the Catholic Church priest sex abuse scandal. In fact, when Boston’s online critics organization bestowed their awards over the weekend, many assumed they would select Spotlight due to the geographic factor alone. They went with Max.

Today, however, two organizations from both coasts feted Spotlight with some love. It also finally got some hometown attention as the Boston Society of Film Critics named it their Best Picture. Just a few hours later, the Los Angeles Film Critics Association followed suit, making it a very good day for Spotlight.

Director McCarthy, on the other hand, was not picked by either coast in the Director race. Boston went with Todd Haynes for Carol and Los Angeles picked George Miller for Mad Max with Haynes as their runner up.

Truth be told, Spotlight winning the L.A. award may not be the greatest harbinger. In the 21st century, only one feature that won its top category went onto win the Oscar: 2009’s The Hurt Locker. The Los Angeles group is also known for making some out of left field choices in the acting races and they did with their supporting choices. Michael Shannon took Supporting Actor for the little seen 99 Homes and he’s not considered much of a threat in the Academy hunt. Runner up: Mark Rylance, whose chances are considerably better for Bridge of Spies. For Supporting Actress, they went with Alicia Vikander and she is widely expected to be nominated come Oscar time. Yet L.A. honored her for Ex Machina and not the film everyone expects her nomination for, The Danish Girl. Runner up: Kristen Stewart for Clouds of Sils Maria and Ms. Stewart won in Boston today. Her previously thought to be improbable Oscar nod keeps growing more probable everyday.

For Best Actress, it was a nice day for Charlotte Rampling, who won on both coasts. Her performance in little seen drama 45 Years has also been gaining attention and that could well translate into an Academy notice. L.A.’s runner up was Brooklyn’s Saoirse Ronan and her Oscar chances are excellent.

Los Angeles may have provided a lifeline to Michael Fassbender who took Actor for Steve Jobs. That film’s Oscar chances have taken a hit due to its dismal box office performance and some have begun speculating whether that factor could affect even Fassbender getting noticed. These critics awards help. The runner up was Geza Rohrig for foreign feature Son of Saul. In Boston, there was a tie between Leonardo DiCaprio in The Revenant and Paul Dano in Love and Mercy. DiCaprio is seen by many as the current Academy front runner while Dano is being campaigned for in Supporting Actor at the Oscars (where his inclusion is definitely a question mark).

As always, I’ll keep updating you on these precursors as they continue. Today’s bottom line: a true spotlight on Spotlight.

Boston Strong for Mad Max

Another day, another critics organization bestowing their best of in movies for 2015. And like the National Board of Review before it, the Boston Online Film Critics have honored Mad Max: Fury Road as their favorite of the year. Its director, George Miller, was victorious as well. This marks yet another win for the fourth entry in the action franchise and increases momentum for the Academy honoring it for a nod in January. I have yet to include Fury Road among my predicted nominees, but that could change soon.

Perhaps the most surprising thing about Max’s win in Boston was that they didn’t pick Spotlight, the Catholic Church priest scandal expose that centers on Boston Globe reporters. Spotlight was included among their other nine selections of the year’s best along with Creed, Brooklyn, Carol, Clouds of Sils Maria, Bridge of Spies, The Martian, Anomalisa, and Tangerine. Notable pics left off: The Revenant, The Hateful Eight, and Joy.

Boston’s selections also marked a great day for Creed. Michael B. Jordan took Best Actor and Sylvester Stallone got Supporting Actor. While Jordan’s chances at an Oscar nod are up in the air (though he’s got some momentum), Stallone is looking more and more like a lock for inclusion.

The actress categories mirrored what the New York critics did earlier this week. Saoirse Ronan won for lead in Brooklyn and she seems a safe bet for Academy attention. Kristen Stewart picked up her second award for the little seen Clouds of Sils Maria and while I’ve yet to list her as an Oscar nominee, she seems to be coming on strong over the past week.

As always, I’ll keep updating the blog as these awards precursors keep coming. Stay tuned!

Todd’s Weekly Oscar Predictions: December 4 Edition

We are a bit over a month away from Oscar nominations coming out (January 14th) and it’s time to ramp up my predictions for what and whom will be nominated in the eight top races. I’m adding the two Screenplay categories (Original and Adapted) for the first time and the plan is to make weekly Oscar predictions each weekend until nominations come out. With each race, I’ll inform you what’s changed since the previous predictions post.

And with that, let’s get to predicting, shall we?

Best Picture

Bridge of Spies

Brooklyn

Carol

The Hateful Eight

Inside Out

The Martian

The Revenant

Room

Spotlight

Other Possibilities:

Beasts of No Nation

The Big Short

Creed

The Danish Girl

Joy

Mad Max: Fury Road

Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Steve Jobs

Straight Outta Compton

Changes Since Last Predictions: Bridge of Spies, Inside Out (IN), Joy, Steve Jobs (OUT)

Best Director

Lenny Abrahamson, Room

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu, The Revenant

Tom McCarthy, Spotlight

George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road

Ridley Scott, The Martian

Other Possibilities:

Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs

Ryan Coogler, Creed

John Crowley, Brooklyn

Cary Fukanaga, Beasts of No Nation

Todd Haynes, Carol

Tom Hooper, The Danish Girl

David O. Russell, Joy

Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

Changes Since Last Predictions: George Miller (IN), David O. Russell (OUT)

Best Actor

Matt Damon, The Martian

Johnny Depp, Black Mass

Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant

Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs

Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Other Possibilities:

Michael Caine, Youth

Bryan Cranston, Trumbo

Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies

Michael B. Jordan, Creed

Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes

Will Smith, Concussion

Changes Since Last Predictions: NONE

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett, Carol

Brie Larson, Room

Jennifer Lawrence, Joy

Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years

Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Other Possibilities:

Emily Blunt, Sicario

Blythe Danner, I’ll See You in My Dreams

Carey Mulligan, Suffragette

Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van

Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road

Lily Tomlin, Grandma

Changes Since Last Predictions: Charlotte Rampling (IN), Blythe Danner (OUT)

Best Supporting Actor

Tom Hardy, The Revenant

Michael Keaton, Spotlight

Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight

Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies

Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Other Possibilities:

Christian Bale, The Big Short

Paul Dano, Love and Mercy

Benicio del Toro, Sicario

Joel Edgerton, Black Mass

Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation

Harvey Keitel, Youth

Jacob Tremblay, Room

Changes Since Last Predictions: Tom Hardy (IN), Idris Elba (OUT)

Best Supporting Actress

Jane Fonda, Youth

Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight

Rooney Mara, Carol

Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl

Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

Joan Allen, Room

Elizabeth Banks, Love and Mercy

Rachel McAdams, Spotlight

Kristin Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria

Julie Walters, Brooklyn

Changes Since Last Predictions: Jane Fonda (IN), Joan Allen (OUT)

Best Original Screenplay (first prediction in category)

Bridge of Spies

The Hateful Eight

Inside Out

Love and Mercy

Spotlight

Other Possibilities:

Joy

Sicario

Straight Outta Compton

Youth

Best Adapted Screenplay (first prediction in category)

Anomalisa

Brooklyn

Carol

Room

Steve Jobs

Other Possibilities:

The Big Short

Creed

The Martian

The Revenant

And there you have it – folks! The next update will come next weekend…

 

Oscar Watch: The Hateful Eight

While its reviews are embargoed for another week and a half or so, Quentin Tarantino’s eagerly awaited The Hateful Eight has conducted industry and critics screenings over the past few days. The celebrated and controversial director’s ninth feature film has been a major question mark as to its Oscar chances ever since the project was announced. Quentin’s last two features, 2009’s Inglourious Basterds and 2012’s Django Unchained, were both nominated for Best Picture so it stood to reason that Eight could follow suit.

The verdict based on word of mouth that’s seeped out? Well, it’s still a bit of a question mark. The Hateful Eight, based on its buzz, seems to be on the bubble of receiving a nod in the big race. Some screenings have indicated a mixed reaction and when it comes to ultra violent awards worthy fare, voters may only recognize Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu’s The Revenant. Based on these factors, I find it unlikely that Mr. Tarantino will nab his third nomination for Director (after 1994’s Pulp Fiction and Basterds). Where he’s more likely to be honored is in Original Screenplay, for which he’s won twice.

Tarantino pics have a nice history of getting their actors nominated and this is likely to hold true for Jennifer Jason Leigh in Supporting Actress. She could a threat to win. As for the males – Samuel L. Jackson, Kurt Russell, Bruce Dern, and others may cancel themselves out.

The other category where a nomination seems probable is Cinematography, where Robert Richardson’s work shooting in 70 mm is assured to earn him attention.

As the weeks roll along, you can follow how The Hateful Eight tracks as, beginning this weekend, I’ll be doing weekly updates on my Oscar predictions. Stay tuned!

In the Heart of the Sea Box Office Prediction

It’s got an Oscar winning director and Thor starring in it, but chances are that next Friday’s In the Heart of the Sea is destined to be known as “the movie that opened the week before Star Wars“. In other words – it better make its money now.

Ron Howard directs the whale tale epic that inspired Moby Dick with Chris Hemsworth in the lead and Cillian Murphy, Brendan Gleeson, Benjamin Walker, and Ben Whishaw costarring. Early reviews are quite mixed (it stands at 67% currently on Rotten Tomatoes) and widespread acclaim could have helped.

While trailers and TV spots have been decent, it seems like Sea has been flying a bit under the radar for a pic of its scale and, as mentioned, it doesn’t help with the galactic Goliath that follows just a week later.

On this same weekend last year, Ridley Scott’s Exodus: Gods and Kings took in $24 million. That, too, was an epic tale with an Oscar winning auteur and lead actor known for his superhero role (Christian Bale). Sea will be lucky to reach that number and I believe it will fall short of the $20M mark for a choppy start.

In the Heart of the Sea opening weekend prediction: $18.4 million

Oscar Watch: In the Heart of the Sea

It hasn’t really been looked at too seriously for Oscar attention and now next week’s In the Heart of the Sea has screened for critics. Ron Howard’s epic true story whale tale that inspired Moby Dick stars Chris Hemsworth, Benjamin Walker, Cillian Murphy, Ben Whishaw, and Brendan Gleeson.

For what once appeared as a major potential box office player, Sea seems to be flying under the radar. As mentioned, while it didn’t seem like much of an awards contender, it was always worth mentioning due to Howard’s track record. Plus you just never know… nobody expected Creed to become the legit contender that it certainly has.

Now that reviews are out – it’s safe to say that this will not be hearing its name called for Academy nominations. Both trade papers weren’t too kind. Opening a week before something called Star Wars: The Force Awakens, this could struggle at the box office as well (my prediction post will be up tomorrow, by the way). And today solidified what most of us suspected: there will be no wave of awards attention for Sea.