It’s been four years since Wes Anderson’s TheGrandBudapestHotel garnered a host of Oscar nominations. His follow-up is the stop-motion animated comedic adventure IsleofDogs, which hits theaters stateside in March and has made its debut at the Berlin Film Festival. The pic (say its name out loud and pick up on its apparent affection for canines) features a whole bunch of familiar faces providing voice work including Bryan Cranston, Edward Norton, Bill Murray, Greta Gerwig, Scarlett Johansson, Jeff Goldblum, Frances McDormand, Ken Watanabe, Tilda Swinton, Bob Balaban, Courtney B. Vance, Harvey Keitel, Liev Schrieber, and F. Murray Abraham.
Reaction overseas to Anderson’s latest is that he’s delivered another winner. That likely means Dogs will follow in the steps of the director’s FantasticMr. Fox, which was nominated for Best Animated Feature by the Academy. It ultimately lost to Pixar’s Up and that powerhouse studio has TheIncredibles2 on deck this year. Additionally, it could be a factor for Mr. Anderson in Original Screenplay.
Yes, it’s early but it could already be a safe assumption that the Dogs will be on display come nomination time next year.
Jason Bateman and Rachel McAdams are a couple whose night of innocent fun goes horribly wrong in the comedy Game Night, opening next Friday. From John Francis Daley and Jonathan Goldstein, the guys behind Horrible Bosses and the 2015 Vacation reboot, the pic costars Kyle Chandler, Billy Magnussen, Michael C. Hall, Jesse Plemons, and Jeffrey Wright.
Night could manage to appeal to moviegoers looking for a straight comedy in the midst of other genre fare in the marketplace. Black Panther will certainly being tearing up competition in weekend #2 and Annihilation is also out there for sci-fi fans. As far as movies reaching for the funny bone, this stands alone.
I could envision Game Night performing similarly to recent Bateman outings like Horrible Bosses 2 and Office Christmas Party. That would put it in the mid teens range for its start.
Game Night opening weekend prediction: $16.3 million
Blogger’s Note part 2 (02/20): I am once again revising my estimate. Now to $10.4 million
Blogger’s Note (02/15): I’m losing faith a bit for Annihilation debut. Revising down from $14.4 million to $12.4 million
Three years ago, screenwriter Alex Garland made his directorial debut with the acclaimed sci-fi pic Ex Machina, which garnered an Original Screenplay Oscar nomination and won for Visual Effects. Next Friday, his sophomore effort Annihilation debuts. Based on the novel from James VanderMeer, Natalie Portman stars in the $55 million production combining sci-fi, horror, and action elements. Costars include Jennifer Jason Leigh, Gina Rodriguez, Tessa Thompson, and Machina lead Oscar Isaac.
While Annihilation is hitting theaters in the U.S., Canada, and China, it’s slated to roll out on Netflix in other international markets. Early critical buzz is pretty solid so far, but it could struggle to break out stateside. Audiences are likely to still be flocking to Black Panther, which will be in its second weekend of release (and doing its own annihilation of competitors).
Fans of Machina, the genre, and Portman may be enough to get this between $10 million on the low end and $15 million on the high end. I’ll project roughly in the lower end of that range.
Annihilation opening weekend prediction: $10.4 million
Blogger’s Note Part II (02/15): And my Panther estimate continues to go up. Now at $193.8 million
Blogger’s Note (02/15): On the eve of their premieres, I’m making the following adjustments: revising Panther up from $168.8M to $178.8M; Early Man from $5.4M to $5.7M; and Samson from $2.2M to $3.1M.
It should be a commanding weekend for Marvel’s Black Panther as it opens over President’s Day in what could be a record-breaking February debut. We also have the stop-motion animated feature Early Man premiering. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
Panther sprints into theaters with red hot word-of-mouth and sizzling reviews. The film appears to have entered into true event picture territory and it has sky high expectations. In order to blast through the current February record, it would need to eclipse Deadpool from two years ago, which also opened over the four-day POTUS frame. That movie earned $132 million from Friday to Sunday and $152 million when including Monday. My Panther estimate has Chadwick Boseman and company exceeding that.
I’m not expecting much from Early Man, which will experience severe competition from the second weekend of Peter Rabbit (likely to remain #2) and all the kiddos flocking to Panther. My $5.7 million forecast for it puts it outside the top 5.
I didn’t do an individual prediction post for Samson, a Biblical drama from Pure Flix that’s slated to open on around 1200 screens. I’ve got it pegged at just $3.1 million.
As mentioned, I see Rabbit retaining the number two spot while Fifty Shades Freed seems likely to drop to third. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle and The 15:17 to Paris should round out the top five.
And with that, my top 5 predictions for the four-day holiday weekend:
1. Black Panther
Predicted Gross: $193.8 million
2. Peter Rabbit
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. Fifty Shades Freed
Predicted Gross: $17 million
4. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Predicted Gross: $9.6 million
5. The 15:17 to Paris
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
Box Office Results (February 9-11)
Fifty Shades Freed closed out the franchise this weekend with the lowest debut of the three features, as anticipated. The final pairing of Anastasia and Christian took in $38.5 million, right on target with my $38.4 million estimate. The good news for Fifty? Its total this weekend including international sales brought the series overall to a billion dollars worldwide.
Peter Rabbit hopped into the second position with a strong $25 million, eclipsing my $18.7 million prediction. The family friendly tale (or tail if you will) looks to continue its impressive grosses in its sophomore frame where it should experience a smallish dip.
Clint Eastwood’s true-life terrorism drama The 15:17 to Paris opened in third to a middling $12.5 million, just below my $13.1 million projection. Mostly negative reviews likely didn’t help.
Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle was fourth with $10 million (I was lower at $8.6 million) for a grand tally of $365 million.
The Greatest Showman rounded out the top five with $6.4 million (I was in line with my $6.3 million forecast) for $146 million total.
Winston Churchill died 100 years after Abraham Lincoln. In the United Kingdom, the Prime Minister is now regarded as one of, if not thee nation’s most revered leaders in perilous times. Like Lincoln. And like Steven Spielberg’s Lincoln from 2012, Joe Wright’s DarkestHour focuses on a short period when both men’s leadership abilities were put to their most strenuous tests. Lincoln featured Daniel Day-Lewis embodying the 16th President of the United States in memorable and Oscar-winning fashion. Hour has Gary Oldman with an equally towering performance that is also barreling toward Academy gold.
The picture takes place in May 1940 as Churchill becomes the doubted but consensus choice to succeed Neville Chamberlain as PM of England. He’s known as much if not more for his failures in previous offices than his successes. Churchill enters the position at a precarious moment for the country. Hitler is on the march, conquering European countries with sights set on England. King George VI (Ben Mendelsohn) is suspicious of the new leader. Office holders, especially Lord Halifax (Stephen Dillane), are pleading for Churchill to cut a deal with the Nazi Party.
It is Churchill’s instinct to fight on the battlefield and with his detractors. He gets support from his wife Clementine (Kristin Scott Thomas). His historic decision-making and speech dictation is witnessed by new personal secretary Elizabeth (Lily James). The key choices he must make involve Operation Dynamo, which was just chronicled in Christopher Nolan’s Dunkirk.
Oldman, buried under impressive makeup that render him barely recognizable, excels in making Churchill a force of nature. We’ve seen Oldman’s chameleon like abilities to disappear into a character before and it’s on full display here. The Prime Minister’s boozing and oratory prowess and connection to his countrymen are also displayed. The supporting players are all just fine, if understandably relegated to the sideline in favor of a far larger personality. Those in Churchill’s orbit probably came to realize they were part of his show. Same here with Mr. Oldman.
DarkestHour doesn’t quite reach the heights of dramatic impact as the films mentioned from Spielberg and Nolan. It is, however, a well-crafted tale of leading with gut and gusto at a juncture when it was needed and with Oldman spearheading the eventual charge to victory.
StudioCanal is hoping family audiences will wish to travel to the Stone Age when their stop-motion animated tale Early Man debuts next weekend. Directed by Nick Park, maker of Chicken Run and numerous Wallace & Gromit efforts, the pic features the voices of Eddie Redmayne, Tom Hiddleston, Maisie Williams, and Timothy Spall.
Expected to debut on approximately 2200 screens at press time, Early Man could have trouble finding its intended audience. There is direct competition in the form of the second weekend of Peter Rabbit. Also Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle should still be making some dough. Most importantly, plenty of kids will be preoccupied with what should be a massive opening for Black Panther.
I’ll project Early Man struggles in its four-day Presidents Day weekend roll out.
Early Man opening weekend prediction: $5.7 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For much of 2017, there was speculation that Clint Eastwood’s true life terrorism pic The15:17toParis could become a late entry into the Oscar race. It didn’t materialize and it was slated for an opening this Friday. I found it a bit curious that the review embargo didn’t lift until two days prior to its debut.
We may now know why. Early critical reaction to Paris has been rather negative. The film casts the three real life heroes (Spencer Stone, Anthony Sadler, Alek Skarlatos) who thwarted a 2015 French train attack alongside more familiar faces including Jenna Fischer, Judy Greer, and Tony Hale.
Eastwood has, of course, been no stranger to Oscar glory with 1992’s Unforgiven and 2004’s MillionDollarBaby both winning Best Picture and Director. In the 21st century, MysticRiver, LettersfromIwoJima, and AmericanSniper were nominated. His projects often merit Academy chatter and this one did until now.
The15:17toParis seems destined for zero awards attention. That also means Jaleel White (TV’s Urkel who from “Family Matters” appears) will not receive his first Oscar nomination.
Blogger’s Note Part II (02/15): For the second time today, my Panther prediction is going up. Now at $193.8M
Blogger’s Note (02/15): On the eve of its premiere, I am revising my Panther estimate up by $10 million – from $168.8M to $178.8M
Marvel Studios is back in business next Friday and it’s likely to be a massive cause of celebration for the studio when BlackPanther opens. Rolling out over the four-day Presidents Day holiday weekend, Chadwick Boseman plays the title character who we first saw in 2016’s CaptainAmerica: CivilWar. Ryan Coogler, who helmed the acclaimed Creed, directs. Costars include Creed himself, Michael B. Jordan, Lupita Nyong’o, Danai Gurira, Martin Freeman, Daniel Kaluuya, Letitia Wright, Forest Whitaker, Angela Bassett, Winston Duke, Sterling K. Brown, and Andy Serkis.
The reported $200 million has been garnering buzz for some time and it’s reaching a fever pitch. Reviews were released today and it sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Earlier today, I wrote a post about its chances at Oscar attention, which I believe to be quite real (even considering the extremely early release date on the calendar):
Two years ago on this same weekend, Deadpool rode a similar wave of sizzling word of mouth to a $152 million opening, which is the current record for February. BlackPanther could be poised to top it with a more friendly PG-13 rating and the vaunted Disney marketing machine behind it.
I’ll project Panther sprints to a new record for the month and jump starts yet another franchise bonanza for the MCU.
BlackPanther opening weekend prediction: $193.8 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
The drumbeat began sounding loudly within recent weeks and today’s critical reaction to Marvel’s Black Panther is deafening. The Ryan Coogler directed superhero pic (out next Friday) with Chadwick Boseman in the title role sits at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes based on 50 reviews thus far.
As you may have noticed, it’s only February. Prognosticating the movies that may get honored for next year’s Oscars is a tricky proposition at best. Yet Black Panther is worth the speculation for a variety of reasons. When it comes to drumbeats, there’s been a ramp up that a comic book adaptation (which have dominated the box office charts all century) has to get Best Picture notice soon. Ten years ago, The Dark Knight came close. In 2016, Deadpool emerged as a late contender. Last year, the same applied for Wonder Woman. And 2017’s Logan is the first superhero flick to get a Screenplay nod. None were nominated for the big prize.
It’s unknown what will transpire over the next year before the next Oscar nominations come out, but I feel confident with this prediction: Panther will be in the mix and not on the back burner for discussion. Already it appears that it will be one of the most critically acclaimed titles in its genre and it will almost certainly become a box office juggernaut.
If Panther manages a Picture nod, the love could extend to director Coogler and its Adapted Screenplay. The film seems to be a decent bet for a variety of tech nods, including Visual Effects, the Sound categories, and Makeup and Hairstyling.
Bottom line: the acclaim for Panther is here and may not go away come Academy voting time.
After a sluggish frame to start the month of February, things should be looking up this weekend as three higher profile titles debut: threequel Fifty Shades Freed, animated/live-action pic Peter Rabbit, and Clint Eastwood’s true-life terrorism drama The 15:17 to Paris. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on each of them here:
As I see it, the trio of newcomers should rather easily populate numbers 1-3 with Freed leading the charge, albeit with less dollars coming in than either of its predecessors. Rabbit should sit in the two spot with 15:17 third.
That means Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle should fall to fourth and I’ll project The Greatest Showman remains in the top five with its continued smallish declines.
And with that, my top 5 projections for the weekend:
1. Fifty Shades Freed
Predicted Gross: $38.4 million
2. Peter Rabbit
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million
3. The 15:17 to Paris
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
4. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. The Greatest Showman
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
Box Office Results (February 2-4)
In a quiet Super Bowl weekend, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle swung back into the top spot with $10.9 million, a bit below my $12.4 million forecast. The mega hit has amassed $352 million overall.
Maze Runner: The Death Cure dropped to second with $10.4 million, in line with my $10.6 million projection for a two-week tally of $40 million.
The weekend’s only newcomer, Helen Mirren horror pic Winchester, debuted in third to a mediocre $9.3 million. I was close with $9.1 million. It did manage to garner the best per screen average of the top five. That said, look for it to drop big next weekend.
The Greatest Showman was fourth with $7.6 million (I said $7.9 million) for $137 million total.
The Post was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the top 5. It made $5.2 million and it stands at $67 million.
Hostiles was sixth at $5.1 million (I said $5.8 million) for $20 million in sales.
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