Julianne Moore is saddled with protecting her troubled daughter Sydney Sweeney in the crime thriller Echo Valley from director Michael Pearce. It begins showing on Apple TV+ tomorrow after a limited theatrical bow last weekend. Costars include Domhnall Gleeson, Kyle MacLachlan, and Fiona Shaw.
Critics are mostly not high on Valley with a 50% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 55 Metacritic. Despite the presence of five-time nominee and one-time Academy recipient Moore and the popular Ms. Sweeney, this is receiving scant buzz. Nevertheless it could do just fine via its streaming route, but this is not an awards pic. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…
Elio is the latest offering from Disney/Pixar and the sci-fi family adventure rolls into multiplexes June 20th. Co-directed by Madeline Sharafian, Domee Shi (who helmed the studio’s Turning Red in 2022), and Adrian Molina, the voice cast includes Yonas Kibreab as the preteen title character, Zoe Saldaña, Remy Edgerly, Brad Garrett, Jameela Jamil, and Shirley Henderson.
Pixar, once as close to a sure thing as there is at the box office, has experienced ups and downs lately. Last summer’s Inside Out 2 was a smash with a $154 million premiere and $652 million domestic haul. Two summers ago, Elemental struggled out of the gate with a $29 million debut. It did eventually leg out to $154 million though that’s still fairly low for Pixar.
My hunch is that Elio starts out slow and it doesn’t help that How to Train Your Dragon will be in its second frame. It might come under what Elemental did and that means mid 20s.
18 years later from the previous installment of the acclaimed zombie franchise comes 28 Years Later on June 20th. Danny Boyle, who made the original 28 Days Later in 2002, is back directing with a cast including Jodie Comer, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Jack O’Connell, and Ralph Fiennes. Alex Garland, who has become a well-known filmmaker via Ex Machina and Civil War, handles screenwriting duties like he did 23 years back.
28 Days Later was a cult hit that took in $10 million in its first weekend with an eventual $45 million domestic gross. 2007’s 28 Weeks Later opened with $9.8 million and $28 million overall stateside. In the nearly 20 years since, both titles are now considered hallmarks of the genre that helped kick off a zombie renaissance leading to The Walking Dead, World War Z, and more. Sony seems confident in bringing this series back. 28 Days Later: The Bone Temple from director Nia DaCosta is slated to follow this up in January.
That means expectations are higher for the third entry. So is the budget at a reported $75 million compared to the respective $8 and $15 million price tags of the predecessors. The top end range of its expected premiere is $40-45million. I’m not projecting quite that level, but low to mid 30s seems doable.
28 Years Later opening weekend prediction: $33.7 million
A live-action remake of an animated hit looks to replace another live-action remake of an animated hit for box office supremacy this weekend as How to Train Your Dragon debuts. We also have the rom com Materialists entering the marketplace. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers at these links:
Dragon, which updates DreamWorks Animation’s 2010 original, is expected to have a fiery start. At best, it could approach $100 million. I’m playing it a little safe and projecting mid 80s for what would easily be a franchise best kickoff after three previous animated offerings.
Materialists with Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans could reach $10M+ and I’ve got it just over that for third place. It could debut anywhere between 3-5 as it’ll hope to leg out well in subsequent weekends based on solid reviews.
As for holdovers, Disney’s Lilo & Stitch will relinquish its crown after three weeks atop the charts. The Dragon competition could mean a 50% range drop.
Ballerina didn’t impress in its opening (more on that below) and I’m guesstimating a mid to high 50s slide in its sophomore frame. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning should remain in the high five.
Here’s how I envision it playing out:
1. How to Train Your Dragon
Predicted Gross: $84.3 million
2. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $15.6 million
3. Materialists
Predicted Gross: $11.4 million
4. Ballerina
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million
5. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $9 million
Box Office Results (June 6-8)
Lilo & Stitch once again held bragging rights as the family tale held in first with $32.3 million, in line with my $31.9 million call. The Mouse House hit has amassed $335 million after three weeks.
That means my prediction that John Wick spinoff Ballerina would be #1 was off base. The action extravaganza with Ana de Armas stalled in second with $24.5 million, well under my $36.8 million take. It’s a rare financial misstep for a series that had yet to experience such a thing.
Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was third with $14.8 million, nearly matching my $15 million forecast as Tom Cruise’s eighth appearance as Ethan Hunt has made $149 million after its third outing.
Karate Kid: Legends was fourth with $8.5 million. My guess? $8.5 million! The 58% decline in its second weekend means the sequel has kicked up an unimpressive $35 million.
Final Destination Bloodlines rounded out the top five with $6.4 million and I incorrectly didn’t have it there. The four-week tally is $123 million.
That’s because I had Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme performing better. The auteur’s latest was sixth at $6.2 million. I went higher for the national expansion with $8.7 million. Counting its coastal release the previous weekend, Scheme stands at $7 million.
Celine Song’s 2023 debut Past Lives was a Best Picture and Original Screenplay nominee and her sophomore feature Materialists arrives in theaters this weekend. A rom com with considerable emotional heft according to reviews, it stars Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal, and Chris Evans.
The word-of-mouth for the A24 release indicates there’s no sophomore slump for Song with 88% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic. If the Academy considers Materialists their material, Original Screenplay is a possibility. Chris Evans is also getting some of the best notices of his career.
Yet I suspect its distributor could focus more on its fall slate, namely Marty Supreme. If A24 slots this into the Musical/Comedy competitions at the Golden Globes, it could contend in that Best Picture race with Johnson as a Best Actress hopeful. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
All three How to Train Your Dragon features from DreamWorks Animation have received Best Animated Feature nominations and all lost to Disney. In 2010, the original fell short to Toy Story 3. Four years later, the sequel couldn’t overcome Big Hero 6. 2019’s The Hidden World didn’t get more votes than Woody and Buzz once again with Toy Story 4.
This Friday, Dean DeBlois (who directed the Dragon trilogy) returns behind the camera with the live-action rendering of part 1 with a sequel already in the works. Cast members include Mason Thames, Nico Parker, Nick Frost, Julian Dennison, Gabriel Howell, Bronwyn James, Harry Trevaldwyn, Ruth Codd, Peter Serafinowicz, Murray McArthur, and Gerard Butler.
The fantasy adventure looks to slay the box office this weekend. Could it keep the streak going of Oscar nods for the series? Reviews are mostly solid with 83% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 67 Metacritic. It is worthy of note that both numbers are lower than the three pictures preceding it. That said, Costume Design and Sound are long shot possibilities. Where DreamWorks could mount a legit campaign is in Visual Effects, but expect plenty of competition for those five spots. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
There are changes to discuss with my first Oscar predictions in two weeks. The headline is that we have 2 new selections in my Best Picture ten. As I mentioned in the recent aftermath of the Cannes Film Festival, distributor Neon already has a full slate of contenders to campaign for including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, and The Life of Chuck. With Chuck out in limited release, I am beginning to suspect it could get the short shrift. I am also starting to sour on The Rivals of Amziah King, which drew raves at Sundance in January. We will have to see if it plays fall festivals and can regain any momentum.
With King and Chuck falling out of my projected BP lineup, it leaves room for Netflix to join the party via Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein and I’m also elevating del Toro in Director with Amziah‘s Andrew Patterson out. The other pic to rise is Scott Cooper’s Bruce Springsteen biopic Deliver Me from Nowhere. In Best Actor, Matthew McConaughey from Amziah is replaced with Michael B. Jordan in Sinners. I still have Angelina LookingGlass from Amziah clinging to a Supporting Actress mention though I came close to replacing her with either Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Laura Dern (Jay Kelly), or Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of the Spider Woman).
Also noteworthy is the ascension of Sentimental Value in Picture, Director, Actress, and Supporting Actor with Renate Reinsve now at #1 in Actress. As a reminder, this isn’t saying the #1 pick is who/what I believe will win. It is a sign of surety of the nomination.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+2)
3. After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (E)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 16) (+8)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)
10. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Bugonia (PR: 13) (+1)
13. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Life of Chuck (PR: 10) (-4)
15. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 8) (-7)
16. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (-1)
17. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 18) (+1)
18. Die, My Love (PR: 20) (+2)
19. F1 (PR: 23) (+4)
20. No Other Choice (PR: 19) (-1)
21. Ann Lee (PR: 21) (E)
22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)
23. Sound of Falling (PR: 17) (-6)
24. Nouvelle Vague (PR: Not Ranked)
25. The Smashing Machine (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+8)
5. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (-3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 6) (E)
7. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-3)
12. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: 13) (E)
14. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-9)
15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 6) (E)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 9) (E)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 10) (E)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (+1)
12. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 2) (E)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)
10. Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 11) (E)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12 (E)
In 2022, Dan Trachtenberg took over the Predator franchise after invigorating the Cloverfield series with 10 Cloverfield Lane. The result was the acclaimed Hulu prequel Prey. This November, futuristic follow-up Predator: Badlands will touch down in theaters. In the meantime, Trachtenberg has helmed the R-rated animated Predator: Killer of Killers which is available for your streaming pleasure via Hulu and Disney+ this weekend.
Prey was a pleasantly bloody surprise to most critics and Killers can proclaim the same. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 98% with Metacritic at 78 with reviewers praising the anthology tale. Is it enough that the Academy would consider this for a Best Animated Feature slot? If so, it would mark the franchise’s second nom after the 1987 original was up for Visual Effects and lost to Innerspace.
Even with the high marks, I just don’t see this contending at the moment. Let’s see how the competition shakes out for the rest of the year though. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A24 rom com Materialists is writer/director Celine Song’s follow-up to 2023 Best Picture nominee Past Lives. Dakota Johnson, Chris Evans, and Pedro Pascal headline the summer counter programming offering that looks to bring in a respectable female crowd.
While official reviews aren’t yet released, early word-of-mouth from screenings indicates this could be a winner. Audience familiarity with its trilogy of leads could assist. Tracking currently has this at high single digits. I think this could slightly outdo that range and reach low double digits.
Materialists opening weekend prediction: $11.4 million
For my How to Train Your Dragon prediction, click here:
Ana de Armas headlines the John Wick franchise spinoff Ballerina this weekend with Keanu Reeves appearing in the action thriller from director Len Wiseman. Other costars include Gabriel Byrne, Catalinia Sandino Moreno, Norman Reedus, and Wick fixtures Anjelica Huston, Ian McShane, and the late Lance Reddick.
The Academy recently announced a new Achievement in Stunt Design category. However, it won’t begin until the 100th ceremony in 2028. That’s bad news for Ballerina and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning in 2025. Both the Wick and Impossible series likely would’ve racked up multiple noms had that race existed over the past decade plus.
Four previous Wick pics couldn’t get into categories like Sound or Visual Effects and I doubt Ballerina will. My Oscar Predictions posts will continue…
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