Two years ago, Andy Muschietti’s adaptation of the Stephen King novel It broke box office records in the horror genre and became an instant audience favorite. Yet it didn’t end up registering with awards voters in any fashion… not even for Pennywise’s creepy makeup job.
This weekend, the eagerly awaited sequel arrives and the review embargo has floated away. ChapterTwo holds a decent 79% Rotten Tomatoes score, but that’s beneath the 86% achieved by its predecessor. A consistent theme in much of the critical reaction is that many parts work, but that it’s also overlong and doesn’t quite measure up to chapter one.
If It couldn’t garner Oscar attention, don’t expect this to. I will make make one further prediction. Another common factor in the reviews is praise for Bill Hader’s performance and he’s said to be a scene stealer. Don’t be surprised to see some chatter and wishful thinking for a Supporting Actor nod that will never come to pass. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
It’s all about It this weekend as the fall box office kicks off and Pennywise returns to terrorize The Losers Club in ItChapterTwo. The Stephen King adapted sequel looks to dominate the marketplace with a potential nine figure debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction post here:
Two years ago on the same post Labor Day frame, It blew away expectations with a massive $123.4 million premiere. Breaking the opening records for September and the horror genre, anticipation is certainly present for the follow up. Reviews aren’t quite as strong this time around and that could mean a slight dip. Yet I’m still going with a starting gross of over $100 million.
No studio bothered to provide direct competition, so the rest of the top 5 will be made up of summer holdovers. None of them should register in the double digits as the demonic clown will be the main attraction.
Here’s how I have the top five playing out:
1. ItChapterTwo
Predicted Gross: $109.7 million
2. AngelHasFallen
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
3. GoodBoys
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. TheLionKing
Predicted Gross: $3.8 million
5. Hobbs&Shaw
Predicted Gross: $3 million
BoxOfficeResults (August30–September2)
Before the It arrival, it was a typically quiet Labor Day weekend as AngelHasFallen kept its place atop the charts with a four day gross of $15.3 million, a tad under my $16.1 million estimate. The two week total is $44 million.
GoodBoys remained in second with $12.1 million (I said $13.1 million) for $59 million overall.
The summer season ruler Disney had TheLionKing in third with $9.3 million, on par with my $9.8 million projection for $523 million in the coffers.
Hobbs & Shaw was fourth with $8.4 million compared to my $9.2 million prediction. Tally is $159 million.
Overcomer rounded out the top five at $7.7 million. I went higher with $9 million. The faith based sports drama has earned $19 million.
Finally, the David Oyelowo Blumhouse thriller Don’tLetGo tanked in 15th place with a meager $2.9 million. I was more generous at $4.5 million.
JohnWick: Chapter3 – Parabellum brings us back into the franchise where the forecast is usually stylishly rainy and dripping with violence. There’s a 100% chance of Keanu Reeves finding creative ways to kill people. Our third iteration does what you expect from a sequel. It increases the action so Mr. Wick fights more. His poor dog met an unfortunate end in Chapter 1 that kicked all of this off. In Parabellum, dogs don’t die. They fight too.
Just as part 2 picked up immediately after its predecessor, this does as well. As you’ll recall, our title character has been excommunicated by the High Table, the organization that governs the unlimited supply of assassins that populate New York City and beyond. He’s a marked man with a $14 million bounty on his head and a dwindling supply of markers causing people to help him. Those individuals include Oscar winning women like Halle Berry and Anjelica Huston.
Wick can no longer have a safe space in the Continental Hotel, managed by Winston (Ian McShane) and his trusty concierge (Lance Reddick). That place provided many highlights in the first two pictures, but our man branches out here. After an excursion to Rome in #2, Wick’s passport gets him to Casablanca here. That’s where he teams with Berry and does a Clark Griswold style desert journey that does give him a respite from the cool looking rain.
Calling the shots is the Adjudicator (an effective Asia Kate Dillon). She’s in charge of punishing the folks who’ve helped Wick out in the past. This includes Winston and the returning Bowery King (Laurence Fishburne, still having a ball). Our head henchman who wants to collect the Wick murder money is Zero (Mark Dacascos) and his character is quite fun. He may have a task to complete, but he’s also a total fanboy of the legend he’s hunting. Their interplay is an added bonus.
Parabellum is ultimately about how well the action scenes work. Director Chad Stahelski and Reeves once again dig deep into their bag of martial arts inspired tricks. And a decent sized portion of the fight sequences are downright thrilling. Perhaps this series will eventually run of gas and the choreography of Reeves in sadistic motion delivering headshots won’t be as satisfying. Not yet.
The Venice and Telluride fests have certainly made this year’s Best Actor race interesting and potentially jam packed. So let’s add another to the mix in the form of TheKing. Based primarily on Shakespeare’s Henry V, the historical action drama casts Timothee Chalamet in the title role. David Michod (best known for 2010’s AnimalKingdom) directs with a supporting cast including Robert Pattinson, Joel Edgerton (who co-wrote the script with Michod), Lily-Rose Depp, Sean Harris, and Ben Mendelsohn.
Screening in Venice before its Netflix bow in November, the reviews are solid though probably not Best Picture material level. Yet for the third year in a row, it’s Chalamet (all of 23 years old) commanding the most attention. In 2017, the actor scored a Supporting Actor nod for CallMebyYourName. Last year, he was on the radar screen in the same category for BeautifulBoy. The nomination never came.
This would be his first look at the lead prize. Overcrowding could be his downfall. Netflix has already seen two of their possibilities solidify their status over the weekend with Adam Driver (MarriageStory) and Jonathan Pryce (TheTwoPopes). And they’ve still got Robert De Niro (TheIrishman) and Eddie Murphy (DolemiteIsMyName) coming to a festival near you. This could all leave Chalamet on the outside looking in, but he’s got a chance to hear his name called among the five eventual contenders. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Flying into Telluride this weekend is the hot air balloon adventure TheAeronauts, which reunites TheTheoryofEverything costars Felicity Jones and Eddie Redmayne. The Amazon Studios production comes with high hopes (a reported $80 million budget) and early reviews suggest it’s fast paced and fun entertainment. Tom Harper directs. Earlier this year, he put out the indie country music drama WildRose with an acclaimed performance from Jessie Buckley.
Jones and Redmayne both nabbed Academy nods five years ago for Theory with the latter winning Best Actor. Since then, they’ve moved on to franchise material like RogueOne: AStarWarsStory and the FantasticBeasts pics. Their reunion is highly unlikely to make them return nominees.
If TheAeronauts can factor in anywhere, perhaps it’s Visual Effects. Yet that could be a tall order considering competition that could include heavy hitters such as Avengers: Endgame, TheLionKing, and this December’s StarWars: TheRiseofSkywalker. Production Design and Costume Design might be reachable as well. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
It seems as if TheTwoPopes has emerged as a bright spot at the Telluride Film Festival over the weekend. The Netflix production casts Anthony Hopkins as Pope Benedict XVI and Jonathan Pryce as the future Pope Francis. Reviews suggest it’s an engaging and often funny experience that audiences should approve of. Fernando Meirelles directs and he’s a previous nominee for 2002’s CityofGod. He also made TheConstantGardner in 2005 for which Rachel Weisz won a Supporting Actress gold statue.
Popes may not see white smoke for a Picture nod, but other races are definitely in play. An important question is category placement. It sounds as if the two actors are co-leads. Will the studio be creative to maximize the chances for both to get in? If only one can make it, I’d bet on the never nominated Pryce over four-time nominee Hopkins (who won nearly three decades ago for TheSilenceoftheLambs).
There’s also Andrew McCarten, who could get noticed for his praised Original Screenplay. He’s a bit of a Best Actor whisperer as a matter of fact. Three of the last five winners in that race starred in scripts written by him: Eddie Redmayne in 2014 for TheTheoryofEverything, Gary Oldman two years ago in DarkestHour, and Rami Malek last year for BohemianRhapsody.
Bottom line: TheTwoPopes did well for itself in Colorado when it comes to awards viability. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
French director Olivier Assayas has flirted with Oscar attention before in titles such as CloudsofSilsMaria and PersonalShopper. Some of that awards chatter for both of them focused on the work of Kristen Stewart, but it never came to fruition.
His latest is the Stewart free WaspNetwork which follows a group of Cuban spies in 1990s Miami. The cast includes Penelope Cruz, Edgar Ramirez, Gael Garcia Bernal, and Ana de Armas. It premiered at the Venice Film Festival over the weekend to mixed results with IndieWire deeming it a misfire.
Assayas is certainly a filmmaker with a critical following, but it appears Wasp will not fly onto the radar screen of Academy voters. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Steven Soderbergh, Oscar winning director of Traffic, has apparently given us a fun and breezy true life story about tax evasion. It comes in the form of TheLaundromat which has premiered at the Venice Film Festival. The pic is star studded as well with Meryl Streep, Gary Oldman, Antonio Banderas, Jeffrey Wright, James Cromwell, and Sharon Stone.
Reviews are out and they’re mostly solid. Yet from what I’ve seen thus far, I’m not sure if this will be an Oscar contender. Hitting Netflix in October, there’s been some comparisons to Adam McKay’s TheBigShort, which did score several nods four years ago. There’s also mentions of Soderbergh’s 2009 pic TheInformant! and that’s no accident since they share the same screenwriter – Scott Z. Burns.
Mr. Burns could get attention for his upcoming political drama TheReport with Adam Driver and Annette Bening. Streep’s category placement is still uncertain but she seems to be a lead. It’s foolish to ever count her out, but she might also factor into Supporting Actress with the upcoming LittleWomen. Banderas looks to be a contender in lead for Pedro Almodovar’s PainandGlory. Oldman won two years ago for DarkestHour. And Netflix itself might focus more on MarriageStory and TheIrishman.
In other words, that’s some significant players involved here who are getting mentions for other projects. While TheLaundromat is getting mostly positive feedback, it may not translate to Academy attention (with the potential exception of Adapted Screenplay). My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Chilean director Pablo Larrain has history with Oscar voters and at the Venice Film Festival, he’s returned to his home country and unveiled his latest feature Ema. A marital drama starring Mariana Di Girolamo and Gael Garcia Bernal set in the reggaeton dance community, this is bound to be Chile’s selection in the newly coined Best International Feature race.
in 2012, Larrain saw his acclaimed No land a nod for what was then called Best Foreign Language Film. Five years later, AFantasticWoman won the gold statue. The director made his stateside debut with Jackie in 2016, in which Natalie Portman received an Actress nomination for her portrayal of the former First Lady.
Early reviews for Ema suggest it’s a vibrant winner. I suspect the Academy is highly likely to include it in their final five selections of honored pictures from across the globe. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
Amidst a stream of Netflix comedies that haven’t exactly had critics on their side, Adam Sandler is now garnering some career best reviews for his starring role in UncutGems. The crime thriller from directors Josh and Benny Safdie premiered at the Telluride over the weekend ahead of its December, non-Netflix release.
Praise has been heaped on Sandler and he finds himself potentially in contention for Oscar chatter for the first time in years. In 2002, the comedian’s heralded work in Paul Thomas Anderson’s Punch-DrunkLove nabbed some awards buzz that ultimately went unrealized. The Brothers Safdie are making their follow up to 2017’s GoodTime, which generated some talk of a Robert Pattinson leading actor nod that also never materialized.
This could all come down to competition for Sandler and if the pic gains any traction with a decent sized audience. Distributor A24 will probably make a push for his inclusion even as they concentrate on other titles like Waves and TheFarewell. The original screenplay and cinematography from Darius Knondji have also been singled out in critical write ups.
Bottom line: UncutGems opens the door for Sandler to make the cut for Oscar attention, but let’s see how open the field is as time goes on. My Oscar Watch posts will continue…
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