My Case Of posts in the Supporting Actor category has reached Paul Raci in Sound of Metal. If you missed the ones focused on Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7), Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), and Leslie Odom, Jr. (One Night in Miami), you can find them here:
It’s a great narrative. The 73-year-old character actor has gone from unknown to critical darling as Riz Ahmed’s mentor in Metal. Critics groups have honored him with several wins and he received a nomination at the Critics Choice Awards.
The Case Against Paul Raci
Raci did not, however, manage to nab a SAG or a Golden Globe nod. And you don’t really get the Oscar without either one of those. Furthermore, it’s been a clean sweep at the major precursors for Daniel Kaluuya and he remains the heavy favorite.
The Verdict
Raci’s journey to the Oscars from relative obscurity is quite a story, but the sound of his name won’t be called on Oscar evening.
My Case Of posts will continue with Chloe Zhao’s direction of Nomadland…
Amanda Seyfried’s work as screen star Marion Davies in David Fincher’s Mank is next up for my Case Of posts in the Supporting Actress competition. If you missed the ones focused on Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm), Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy), and Olivia Colman (The Father), click below:
The former Mean Girl drew career best notices for the Netflix pic and earned her first nomination. Seyfried also picked up nods at the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards.
The Case Against Amanda Seyfried
She did not, however, get a SAG Award mention and that was a surprise. There’s been just two Oscar recipients (Marcia Gay Harden for Pollock and Regina King in If Beale Street Could Talk) in Supporting Actress who didn’t at least get a SAG nomination. Furthermore, Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) has emerged as the frontrunner.
The Verdict
Upsets have happened in this category, but Seyfried’s chances are slim.
My Case Of posts will continue with Paul Raci in Sound of Metal…
Fresh off their massive success with Godzilla vs. Kong, Warner Bros is back in theaters and streaming on HBO Max with the release of Mortal Kombat on April 23. The film is, of course, an adaptation of the hugely profitable gaming franchise. It’s also a reboot of the film series that began in 1995 to potent box office returns and a 1997 sequel (Mortal Kombat: Annihilation) that couldn’t live up to the first. Therefore the series has been dormant nearly a quarter century.
Simon McQuoid makes his directorial debut (and James Wan as a coproducer) with a cast featuring Lewis Tan, Jessica McNamee, Josh Lawson, Tadanobu Asano, Mehcad Brooks, Ludi Lin, Chin Han, and Hiroyuki Sanada. While it seems like every major motion picture has experienced major delays due to COVID-19, this one was only pushed three months from an original January release date.
As mentioned, its studio has found a formula that works in recent months with their simultaneous multiplex and HBO Max drop dates. Godzilla vs. Kong set the COVID times record with a much better than anticipated $32 million traditional opening weekend and nearly $50 million for its five-day Easter frame rollout.
Mortal Kombat may not have quite the appeal of those two monsters mashing, but it certainly has a built-in fanbase that will prefer to see it in the theaters. Its R rating (the first two flicks were PG-13) could be a minor hiccup, but I doubt that will have too much effect. It can’t hurt that there’s a new generation of video game players and their parents who are familiar with it.
I look for Kombat to punch in with a little more than half of what GvK accomplished and that means high teens is the range I’m forecasting.
Mortal Kombat opening weekend prediction: $17.5 million
Gary Oldman (Mank) is the fourth thespian in my Case Of posts for the Best Actor Oscar contenders. If you missed the ones covering Riz Ahmed (Sound of Metal), Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom), and Anthony Hopkins (The Father), they’re here:
He’s considered one of the finest actors working today and he found a plum role as Citizen Kane screenwriter Herman J. Mankiewicz in David Fincher’s Netflix pic. Oldman has found success in all the significant precursors garnering nods for this third Academy mention. His first came in 2011 for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy and he won the gold three years ago for Darkest Hour.
The Case Against Gary Oldman
In 2017, Oldman was a strong favorite for months and it paid off in victory. This is not the case for 2020. While Mank received the most nominations, it missed in key races like Original Screenplay and Editing. None of the precursors nods have resulted in wins.
The Verdict
Oldman is firmly behind Boseman, Hopkins, and Ahmed as far as chances for winning and might even be fifth when you take Steven Yeun (Minari) into account.
My Case Of posts will continue with Oldman’s Mank costar Amanda Seyfried…
Brad Furman’s City of Lies, originally scheduled for 2018, was delayed and the reason why depends on what you read. It could be because the LAPD didn’t want it to come out based on their bad behavior with the case it involves. Or it could be due to recent bad behavior of its own leading man. City of Lies itself isn’t a bad movie. It just doesn’t doesn’t add a whole lot to a well covered story told in other mediums.
The film recounts the still unsolved homicide investigation of The Notorious B.I.G. thru the lens of Detective Russell Poole (Johnny Depp) and journalist Jack (Forest Whitaker). When the murder occurred in the spring of 1997 in Los Angeles, this was in the aftermath of the 1992 riots and the O.J. Simpson trial. It was also, of course, mere months following the killing of another rap superstar Tupac Shakur.
Based on Randall Sullivan’s book LAbyrinth, the picture puts forth the theory that LAPD officers were deeply involved in the plot to take out Brooklyn’s legendary rapper in conjunction with Death Row Records and its founder Suge Knight. Yet with the aforementioned events in Southern California, Detective Poole’s efforts to expose the corruption was buried.
For those with an interest in this nearly 25-year-old unsolved mystery, none of this is new information. It’s been told in various documentaries and novels. The two lead characters collaborate some 18 years after Biggie’s death. Poole’s earlier investigation (seen in flashbacks) has led to the downfall of his career and family life. Jack’s previous journalistic writings on the case posited mostly discounted speculation that Biggie ordered Tupac’s fateful ride on Las Vegas Boulevard. He’s preparing a 20 year retrospective of the murders and Poole’s hypotheses are increasing in their validity (despite the LAPD’s continued obstruction).
Depp and Whitaker are two actors who can chew scenery. Both of their performances here are more on the subtle side and they’re both solid. City of Lies, unfortunately too often, is a subdued record of an urgent subject. Late in the proceedings, there’s a scene where Biggie’s mother Voletta Wallace plays herself. It’s quite well-done and is a brief and powerful reminder of her unending search for answers. Had the individuals involved not been named Biggie and Tupac and Suge Knight, the pic would mostly feel no different than a typical episode of a police procedural. Ms. Wallace’s late appearance keeps us mindful of the real cost involved with justice delayed.
The fourth contender is up in what has become the most fascinating competition at the Oscars (Best Actress) with Frances McDormand in Nomadland. If you missed coverage on the first three (Viola Davis in Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom, Andra Day in The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Vanessa Kirby in Pieces of a Woman), they’re here:
She’s starring in the Oscar favorite for Best Picture and Director with one of her most acclaimed roles. That’s saying a lot. Nomadland marks McDormand’s sixth nomination overall. She’s been nominated thrice in supporting for Mississippi Burning, Almost Famous, and North Country where’s she 0 for 3. However, in her previous Best Actress plays, she’s 2 for 2 with Fargo and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. Just this weekend McDormand took the award at BAFTA and there is a 9/10 Oscar match from 2010-2019. Added to that is the history she would make. By taking three Best Actress honors, she would become only the second woman ever to do so (Katherine Hepburn received 4).
The Case Against Frances McDormand
This is as unpredictable a race as it gets. While McDormand’s BAFTA is a sure sign that’s she in this, other precursors have not followed suit. Viola Davis is the SAG recipient. Andra Day took the Golden Globes and Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) is the Critics Choice honoree. All stand reasonable chances and there could be a feeling that McDormand has been there and done that (twice). In an interesting stat, only one Best Actress winner in the 21st century has seen her film take the big prize (Hilary Swank, Million Dollar Baby).
The Verdict
The BAFTA vaults McDormand into even more serious consideration to take Oscar #3 in a race that seems to be coming down to the wire.
My Case Of posts will continue with Gary Oldman in Mank…
Thomas Vinterberg’s direction of the Danish dramedy Another Round is my next Case Of post in that race. If you missed the previous ones covering Lee Isaac Chung (Minari), Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman), and David Fincher (Mank), they’re right here:
Another Round has emerged as the favorite to win Best International Feature Film at the April 25th ceremony and, just today, took the BAFTA for its version of that category. His nomination came as a pretty massive surprise so there’s clearly some voters with him on their minds…
The Case Against Thomas Vinterberg:
OK, now let’s real. The fact that his nod practically came out of nowhere means his winning changes are next to none. Most notably, Round was not nominated in Best Picture. In order for its director to take the gold, their movie kinda has to get a mention. Had it landed in the big race (or even star Mads Mikkelsen getting into Best Actor), this might be a more serious conversation.
The Verdict
Vinterberg making the final five cut is the victory. The other four filmmakers not named Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) are all far behind her. Vinterberg is the furthest.
My Case Of posts will continue with Frances McDormand in Nomadland…
The road for Nomadland to Best Picture coronation at the Oscars keeps rolling today thanks to the BAFTAs (the United Kingdom’s version of the Academy Awards). Meanwhile, the Actor and Actress derbies got a bit more interesting while the supporting players continued its recent narrative.
Chloe Zhao’s Nomadland won Best Film and Director in what has become a common theme. However, Frances McDormand’s victory in Actress is her first major precursor in an Oscar race that has truly become a tossup. To break it down, the four significant precursors have all produced different results: McDormand for BAFTA, Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) at SAG, Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) at Critics Choice, and Andra Day (The United States vs. Billie Holiday) at the Globes. Bottom line: it’s going to be quite a chore to make a final predictions for the Academy’s ceremony two weeks from today.
Chadwick Boseman’s work in Ma Rainey had swept all the precursors, but that was interrupted this afternoon by Anthony Hopkins in The Father. This is not a huge upset since Hopkins is British royalty. Yet it does establish him as the surefire runner-up to Boseman and a potential threat.
The supporting races followed the SAG path with Yuh-jung Youn (Minari) in Supporting Actress and Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) continuing his sweep in Supporting Actor. Both can be considered favorites at the Oscars (especially the latter).
In the screenplay competition, The Father took Adapted over Nomadland in what could be a two picture race in two weeks. Promising Young Woman took Original honors (besting The Trial of the Chicago 7, which came up empty across the pond). Promising also took home Best British Film.
Unlike the other precursors, the BAFTAs cover most of the down ticket categories and I’ll simply say that all the victors below stand decent to very strong chances at repeating at the Oscars:
Animated Film: Soul
Documentary: My Octopus Teacher
Film Not in the English Language: Another Round
Cinematography: Nomadland
Costume Design: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Editing: Sound of Metal
Makeup & Hair: Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Original Score: Soul
Production Design: Mank
Sound: Sound of Metal
Special Visual Effects: Tenet
My final Oscar predictions will be before you know it! Stay tuned…
Leslie Odom, Jr.’s performance as crooner Sam Cooke in One Night in Miami is my third writeup for Supporting Actor contenders at the Oscars. If you missed my first two covering Sacha Baron Cohen (The Trial of the Chicago 7) and Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah), you can find them here:
It was a sterling 2020 for the performer with his critically hailed work as Cooke in Regina King’s Amazon Prime drama. This is in addition to reminding viewers of his heralded take on Aaron Burr in Hamilton (which drew new viewers in its Disney+ filmed version). He’s managed mentions in all the significant precursors (BAFTA, Globes, SAG, Critics Choice).
The Case Against Leslie Odom, Jr.:
This category has a major frontrunner with Daniel Kaluuya, who has cleaned up in the precursor action. Miami also fell short of expectations on Oscar morning by missing an anticipated Best Picture nod and recognition for King.
The Verdict
Anyone not named Daniel Kaluuya is not expected to make a trip to the podium this year.
My Case Of posts will continue with Thomas Vinterberg’s direction of Another Round…
The Directors Guild of America (DGA) is a pretty darn accurate predictor of who will win at the Academy Awards. In the past 20 years, the DGA and Oscar winners for Best Director have matched 17 times. It is worth noting that one of the 3 non matches was last year as Sam Mendes (1917) took DGA while Bong Joon Ho (Parasite) took the Academy’s gold.
Tonight the DGA held their ceremony and it went as expected with Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) emerging victorious. This goes along with her numerous critics groups prizes and the Golden Globe and Critics Choice Award. Anyone else being named this evening would have been a surprise and it’s further evidence that Zhao is the strong favorite for Oscar. If so, she will become the second female to do so after Kathryn Bigelow for 2009’s The Hurt Locker.
This is also more evidence that Nomadland itself is in the driver’s seat for Best Picture as the Academy’s ceremony is just 15 days away. Bottom line: the Zhaomentum continues and none of the other nominees appear capable of interrupting it.
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