Author: toddmthatcher

PGA: The Rise of CODA

When it comes to the Producers Guild of America awards, there’s a 14/21 match between their best picture and the Academy’s in the 21st century. The two-thirds ratio is 3/5 in the past five years. In 2016, La La Land took PGA over the Oscar selection of Moonlight. For 2019, PGA went with 1917 while the big show went with Parasite. Other 21st century examples: The Big Short won PGA in 2015 (Oscar: Spotlight). For 2006, Little Miss Sunshine got the PGA prize while The Departed took Oscar.

The PGA’s for 2021 occurred last night and it’s another feather in the cap for CODA. Sian Heder’s coming-of-age drama built upon its recent SAG ensemble victory  to triumph here. If there was any doubt before, CODA has unquestionably positioned itself as the alternate to The Power of the Dog winning Best Picture at the Oscars. Not Belfast. Not King Richard or Dune. This is a two-horse race between Dog and CODA and they both have important precursor hardware. No matter which one grabs the gold, it will be the first BP win for a streamer (Netflix for Dog and Apple TV for CODA).

Jane Campion’s direction of Dog won the Director Guild of America (DGA) prize this week and that’s a reliable Academy precursor. She’s almost certain to be the Oscar winner (CODA‘s Sian Heder isn’t nominated). In fact, CODA only has three nominations overall: Picture, Supporting Actor (Troy Kotsur), and Adapted Screenplay. It didn’t seem feasible until recently, but it could legitimately go 3 for 3.

Having said that, I wouldn’t dream of counting Dog out. It’s the Globe and BAFTA recipient. The precursor bonafides for it are just as impressive as CODA‘s. Even a week ago, however, I would’ve said Dog had about a 90% chance to be the Oscar BP. Now… well, it’s considerably less and we’ll see what I predict when I make my final picks on Wednesday.

In the Animated Feature and Documentary races at PGA, the respective winners were Encanto and Summer of Soul and they maintain their status as Academy favorites.

Oscar Predictions: The Lost City

At the Golden Globes honoring the pictures of 1984, Romancing the Stone managed to win the Musical/Comedy race. In doing so, it beat out sturdy competitors like Beverly Hills Cop, Ghostbusters, and Splash. Furthermore, Kathleen Turner took home Best Actress for her performance while costar Michael Douglas wasn’t nominated.

Why am I talking about this comedic adventure from nearly 40 years ago? The Lost City (out March 25th) is being compared to it a lot in the early reviews (which currently sit at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes).

From filmmakers Adam and Aaron Nee, Sandra Bullock and Channing Tatum headline with a supporting cast including Brad Pitt (the critics are praising him), Daniel Radcliffe, Da’Vine Joy Randolph, and Bowen Yang. Here’s the deal… this isn’t really an Oscar Predictions post. I don’t think it’ll be in the running from Academy voters.

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association is a different branch and could be a different story. Depending on the level of competition from future musicals and comedies in 2022, The Lost City‘s early buzz indicates it could make a play in that feature film competition or for Bullock. That would keep those comps to Stone relevant. My Oscar (and Globe) Prediction posts will continue…

The Lost City Box Office Prediction

Sandra Bullock is fresh off widely seen Netflix titles like Bird Box and The Unforgivable. Channing Tatum’s Dog is currently performing well in multiplexes. The two team up on March 25th for The Lost City, a romantic comedy adventure drawing comparisons to 1984’s Romancing the Stone. Adam and Aaron Nee co-direct. The two leads aren’t the only big names in the cast as Brad Pitt (said to be a standout) and Daniel Radcliffe join the party alongside Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Bowen Yang.

It’s a rare title in this era where the release date was pushed up (from April). City screened at South by Southwest last weekend to pleasing results. Based on 12 reviews thus far, it’s at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes.

This is exactly the type of escapist fare that should appeal widely to action fans and with a female demographic to boot. It could end The Batman‘s reign atop the charts. I do believe a gross north of $30 million is totally possible, but I’ll put it a bit below that mark. That should set up a showdown between this and the Caped Crusader for box office supremacy.

The Lost City opening weekend prediction: $28.4 million

Oscar Predictions: Deep Water

Adrian Lyne’s erotic thriller Deep Water was supposed to surface in theaters way back in November 2020 before its COVID delays. It marks the director’s first feature in 20 years since Unfaithful. The multiplex release was scrapped and a year and a half later, it’s slated for a Hulu streaming debut on Friday. The cast includes former couple Ben Affleck and Ana de Armas along with Tracy Letts, Lil Rel Howery, Dash Mihok, Finn Wittrock, and Kristen Connolly.

The embargo is up. Some critics have called it a worthy throwback to 80s/90s era psychosexual dramas. Others aren’t as kind as evidenced by the 47% Rotten Tomatoes rating.

Lyne’s previous efforts have yielded awards attention. 1983’s Flashdance garnered 4 down the line nominations with a win for that title song. 1987’s Fatal Attraction nabbed six including Picture, Actress (Glenn Close), and Supporting Actress (Anne Archer). Diane Lane received a Best Actress mention for the aforementioned Unfaithful two decades back.

So it’s not unreasonable to think of Lyne’s work as Oscar bait. It just won’t happen here as Water‘s critical reaction won’t give this any oxygen. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

X Box Office Prediction

Set in 1979 and melding the genres of horror with adult filmmaking, Ti West’s X is slated for spots in over 2000 theaters this weekend. The slasher pic (which premiered at South by Southwest days ago) stars Mia Goth, Jenna Ortega (just coming off Scream), Martin Henderson, Brittany Snow, Owen Campbell, and Scott Mescudi (aka Kid Cudi).

Reviews are sharp with a current 100% Rotten Tomatoes score. That said, I do believe its box office potential is limited. Unlike most recent horror titles, it’s not a sequel/remake/prequel/requel. While A24 materials often receives acclaim, they can struggle at multiplexes.

Despite the hefty screen count, I’ll project this struggles to reach $3 million.

X opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million

For my Jujutsu Kaisen 0 prediction, click here:

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Box Office Prediction

For my The Outfit prediction, click here:

The Outfit Box Office Prediction

Oscars 2021: The Case of Kodi Smit-McPhee

Kodi Smit-McPhee’s performance in Jane Campion’s The Power of the Dog is the fifth and final Case Of post for the Supporting Actor contenders. If you missed the others, you can access them here:

Oscars 2021: The Case of Ciaran Hinds

Oscars 2021: The Case of Troy Kotsur

Oscars 2021: The Case of Jesse Plemons

Oscars 2021: The Case of J.K. Simmons

The Case for Kodi Smit-McPhee:

The 25-year-old Aussie picked up numerous critics prizes for his acclaimed role as well as the Golden Globe. Of the four actors nominated for Power (with Jesse Plemons in the same category), Smit-McPhee has received the most precursors and stands the best shot.

The Case Against Kodi Smit-McPhee:

Troy Kotsur. Simply put, the CODA costar has all the momentum after winning the SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA.

Previous Nominations: 

None

The Verdict:

Smit-McPhee is definitely the runner-up, but Kotsur is appearing much stronger after the double weekend wins at Critics Choice and BAFTA. Dog appears poised for major victories, but it’s looking less and less like this will be one of them.

And that concludes all 35 of my Case Of posts! It’s been fun. Stay tuned for my final Oscar winner predictions next week…

March 18-20 Box Office Predictions

**Blogger’s Update (03/16): My prediction for X is in at $2.9 million and that keeps it outside of the top five. It may be accessed here:

X Box Office Prediction

The Caped Crusader should easily make it a three-peat at #1 while the Japanese animated fantasy Jujutsu Kaisen 0 and crime drama The Outfit with Mark Rylance debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Box Office Prediction

The Outfit Box Office Prediction

Let’s begin with The Outfit because my mere $1 million estimate leaves it outside of the top five. As for Jujutsu, my projection should put it in either the two or three slot depending on how much Uncharted dips. It could be close.

The Batman‘s sophomore drop was a solid 50% and it stands to lose less in its third outing. Dog and Spider-Man: No Way Home should stay in the four and five positions.

Here’s how I see it breaking down:

1. The Batman

Predicted Gross: $42.1 million

2. Jujutsu Kaisen 0

Predicted Gross: $9.8 million

3. Uncharted

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

4. Dog

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

5. Spider-Man: No Way Home 

Predicted Gross: $3.7 million

Box Office Results (March 11-13)

As mentioned, The Batman continued to rock the charts in weekend #2 with a sturdy hold at $66.5 million. That’s higher than my $62.5 million take and the ten-day total is $239 million.

All holdovers experienced meager declines (between 10-17% for all). Uncharted remained in the runner-up spot with $9.2 million compared to my $6.7 million take. It stands at an impressive $113 million.

The surprise of the weekend was BTS Permission to Dance on Stage – Seoul. The live concert pic with the K-pop superstars played in theaters on Saturday night and amassed $6.8 million for third place. I didn’t have it on my radar.

Dog was fourth with $5.2 million, a tad ahead of my $4.4 million prediction for $47 million overall.

Spider-Man: No Way Home rounded out the top five with $4 million (I said $3.8 million) to bring the gargantuan haul to $792 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent

Nicolas Cage was probably close to a third Oscar nomination for last year’s Pig and now he’s earning kudos for playing himself in The Unbearable Weight of Massive Talent. The meta comedy finds Cage in a sticky situation when he accepts a hefty payday to attend the birthday party of a billionaire drug lord. Pedro Pascal is that financier and the supporting cast also includes Sharon Horgan, Ike Barinholtz, Neil Patrick Harris, and Tiffany Haddish. Tom Gormican directs.

Prior to its April 22nd release, Weight dropped at South by Southwest and reviews currently stand at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Cage has become known for alternating acclaimed indie projects with dreadful direct to streaming material. This certainly appears to fall into the former designation.

Could awards voters take note? It might be a bit too out there, but Original Screenplay is not out of the question. A Best Comedy nod from Critics Choice next year is also a decent possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

BAFTA and Critics Choice Awards Reaction

It was a frenzied Sunday for awards prognosticators as both the BAFTA and Critics Choice Awards aired. Both can be sturdy forecasters for what Oscar will do. This time around, I did better with the Brits than the stateside reviewers. For BAFTA, I went 15/22 (not bad). As for the Critics… oof. Just 10 for 21. Let’s take a look at both with some commentary below:

BAFTA

What I Got Right:

Film – The Power of the Dog

Director – Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Actress – Joanna Scanlan, After Love

Supporting Actress – Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Documentary – Summer of Soul

Film Not in the English Language – Drive My Car

Casting – West Side Story

Cinematography – Dune

Costume Design – Cruella

Makeup and Hair – The Eyes of Tammy Faye

Original Score – Dune

Production Design – Dune

Sound – Dune

Special Visual Effects – Dune

Outstanding British Film  – Belfast

What I Got Wrong:

Actor – Will Smith, King Richard (Predicted: Benedict Cumberbatch, The Power of the Dog)

Supporting Actor – Troy Kotsur, CODA (Predicted: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog)

Original Screenplay – Licorice Pizza (Predicted: Belfast)

Adapted Screenplay – CODA (Predicted: The Power of the Dog)

Animated Feature – Encanto (Predicted: Flee)

Editing – No Time to Die (Predicted: Dune)

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director, or Producer – The Harder They Fall (Predicted: Passing)

Critics Choice Awards

What I Got Right:

Picture – The Power of the Dog

Director – Jane Campion, The Power of the Dog

Actor – Will Smith, King Richard

Supporting Actress – Ariana DeBose, West Side Story

Adapted Screenplay – The Power of the Dog

Foreign Language Film – Drive My Car

Cinematography – The Power of the Dog

Costume Design – Cruella

Score – Dune

Visual Effects – Dune

What I Got Wrong:

Actress – Jessica Chastain, The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Predicted: Kristen Stewart, Spencer)

Supporting Actor – Troy Kotsur, CODA (Predicted: Kodi Smit-McPhee, The Power of the Dog)

Original Screenplay – Belfast (Predicted: Licorice Pizza)

Animated Feature – The Mitchells vs. the Machines (Predicted: Encanto)

Comedy – Licorice Pizza (Predicted: The French Dispatch)

Young Actor/Actress – Jude Hill, Belfast (Predicted: Rachel Zegler, West Side Story)

Acting Ensemble – Belfast (Predicted: The Power of the Dog)

Editing  – West Side Story (Predicted: Dune)

Hair and Makeup – The Eyes of Tammy Faye (Predicted: House of Gucci)

Production Design – Dune (Predicted: Nightmare Alley)

Song – “No Time to Die” from No Time to Die (Predicted: “Just Look Up” from Don’t Look Up)

Commentary –

Let’s start with the acting races. I would venture to say now that those four categories all have strong frontrunners: Jessica Chastain and Will Smith in lead and Ariana DeBose and Troy Kotsur in supporting. Smith and DeBose, in particular, appear unbeatable while Chastain and Kotsur are easy odds-on favorites.

Dune should win plenty of the down the line competitions and appears bound to win the most Oscars overall.

The screenplay races are filled with genuine drama. CODA taking Adapted Screenplay over The Power of the Dog at the BAFTAs was a shocker, but it could be a sign of things to come from the Academy (though I wouldn’t wager money on that). Original Screenplay is absolutely a two-horse race between Belfast and Licorice Pizza. 

Drive My Car is going to take International Feature Film. Simple as that. Summer of Soul looks to be in solid shape for Doc. And even though The Mitchells vs. the Machines managed to take the critics prize, Disney’s Encanto is probably still out front for the Oscar.

In other down the line derbies, the double victories in Makeup and Hairstyling for The Eyes of Tammy Faye and Cruella in Costume Design make them favorites.

And despite The Power of the Dog not picking up some trophies at both ceremonies, it did so with Picture and Director at both. And it should do so on Oscar night.

That’s all for now! Next week (probably on Wednesday), look for my FINAL Oscar winner predictions!

The Outfit Box Office Prediction

After premiering at the Berlin Film Festival to solid reviews, crime drama The Outfit hits approximately 1200 screens on March 18th. Graham Moore, Oscar winner for penning the screenplay for The Imitation Game, makes his directorial debut. The cast is led by Mark Rylance with Zoey Deutch, Dylan O’Brien, Johnny Flynn, and Simon Russell Beale in the supporting cast.

While critical reaction is pleasing (92% on Rotten Tomatoes), the lack of star power and fairly low theater count makes me skeptical that this breaks through to domestic crowds.

I don’t believe this will average even $1,000 per location. If it fits in the $800-$900 range, it may manage to clear $1 million. I’m not even confident about that, but I’ll give it the benefit of the doubt.

The Outfit opening weekend prediction: $1 million

For my Jujutsu Kaisen 0 prediction, click here:

Jujutsu Kaisen 0 Box Office Prediction

For my X prediction, click here:

X Box Office Prediction