Avatar: The Way of Water is both visually sparkling and narratively flat. In that sense, James Cameron’s sequel is much like the 2009 original (which happens to be worldwide highest grosser in history). The effects thirteen years ago were revolutionary and kicked off a mostly unfortunate trend of tentpoles getting the three-dimensional treatment. That sense of wonder from Avatar is present occasionally below the surface in a few astounding underwater sequences. Many blockbusters have competed with this franchise in visual splendor and come up short and that includes some shoddy MCU battles. Cameron and his crew can still wow, but subpar writing and a lack of tight editing remains a problem. If you loved the forests of Pandora in part 1 and didn’t want to leave, you’ll likely love lounging in the aquatic action of this follow-up. If your feelings were mixed like mine were, expect a similar reaction.
Former Marine Jake Sully (Sam Worthington) and Na’vi spiritual leader in waiting Neytiri (Zoe Saldana) are married with four kids as Water begins (it’s set a decade and a half plus post Avatar). Adopted teenage daughter Kiri (voiced by Sigourney Weaver) is miraculously spawned from Sigourney’s scientist in the original. We suspect she might have special powers if she can get over her Jan Brady lot in life. Older brother Neteyam (Jamie Flatters) is the responsible one while second born boy Lo’ak (Britain Dalton) is the rebel. Youngest girl Tuk (Trinity Jo-Li Bliss) is eight and precocious. The Sully tribe are living a peaceful existence until those mean corporate Earthlings return to Pandora. On their list of plays is total colonization as the home planet is dying.
Due to a memory implant system, Stephen Lang’s villainous Colonel is leading the charge in the guise of a Na’vi big blue boy. He has revenge on his mind since it was Neytiri who arrowed him to death years ago. There’s also a son he left behind that the Sully’s are raising who goes by Spider (Jack Champion). Clad in a loincloth, his character comes off as a cartoonish plot device. He’s got about as much depth as Bam Bam Rubble. The dynamic between Spider and his father is one of a few daddy issues happening. I half expected a sky complected Maury Povich to interrupt and start moderating.
Since Jake is being targeted for his skill in fighting off the Sky People, he relocates his brood to the tropical island of At’wa Attu. They feel out of place among the residents who spend much of their day submerged. The chief of their clan known as the Metkayina is Tonwari (Cliff Curtis). He and his pregnant wife Ronal (Kate Winslet) are skeptical about harboring their guests. It’s in and around the island where some memorable moments happen. The Metkayina share a spiritual connection with the giant mammals swimming below. Lo’ak befriends one of them and it’s a subplot that clicks.
Part 2 relegates Jake and Neytiri to the sidelines for much of its three hours and 12 minutes. A larger focus is on their offspring and how they feel like fish out of water. The filmmaker’s own well-documented fascination with the deep comes in handy with the whale tale portions and beyond. The bulk of its themes, on the other hand, are heavily borrowed from before. Cameron and his tech wizards can enthrall us and exasperate us in this new habitat that questions our humanity.
This year’s crop of Supporting Actress hopefuls is a vast one and easily the toughest to predict of the four acting races. Earlier in the week, the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards named their nominees. For Supporting Actress, only three performers managed nods in both: Angela Bassett for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Kerry Condon in The Banshees of Inisherin, and Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All at Once. Additional contenders for the Globe are Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness) and Carey Mulligan (She Said). For Critics Choice – it is Jessie Buckley (Women Talking), Stephanie Hsu (Everything Everywhere All at Once), and Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery).
Of the 8 actresses vying for victory, there are two surprising women not being talked about. Hong Chau (The Whale) and Claire Foy (Women Talking) were snubbed by the Globes and Critics Choice. I have had Foy listed at #1 in my Oscar picks for many weeks and I’ve had Chau in and out of my high five. Their double omissions put them at a disadvantage. There are only six Supporting Actress Oscar nominees in the past decade who missed both the Globes and Critics Choice: Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook), Laura Dern (Wild), Lesley Manville (Phantom Thread), and Marina de Tavira (Roma). It is worthy of note the other two were from just last year – Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter) and Judi Dench (Belfast). None of them won the Oscar so you can bet Foy will at least drop from #1 when I update my predictions this weekend.
On the flip side, there are also 6 women who did land Globe and Critics mentions and were ignored by the Academy. They are Jessica Chastain in A Most Violent Year, Helen Mirren from Trumbo, Jennifer Lopez in Hustlers, and Caitriona Balfe for Belfast.
The two I’m holding back on are quite interesting…
Hong Chau in 2017’s Downsizing and Claire Foy in 2018’s First Man. They were both expected to pick up nods from the Oscar voters and didn’t. In 2022, they find themselves in the opposite situation. After being left off the ballots for two major precursors, they could miss a nomination and no one would be taken aback. Yet as the Academy showed with Foy’s Women Talking costar Jessie Buckley last year and Dame Judi, this branch could go their own way and include either (especially after noticeably ignoring them a few years back).
I’d rather be Bassett, Condon, and Curtis right now when it comes to viability. For Chau and Foy – the odds aren’t in their favor like they were five and four years back. Those odds didn’t help them then. Perhaps their longer ones will prove to their benefit this time around.
Blogger’s Update (12/20): I am revising my prediction from $14.5 million to $11.5 million
Sony Pictures is hoping audiences wanna run to Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody when its drops December 23rd. The biopic of the legendary late singer stars Naomi Ackie as the title character with Stanley Tucci, Ashton Sanders, Tamara Tunie, Nafessa Williams, and Clarke Peters among the supporting cast. Kasi Lemmons (who last made the 2019 biopic Harriet) directs. Anthony McCarten wrote the screenplay. He’s no stranger to the genre having scripted The Theory of Everything, Darkest Hour and Bohemian Rhapsody.
Just last week, the film’s name was expanded to add “Whitney Houston” in front of one of her signature tunes. Perhaps Sony was nervous that awareness wasn’t high enough for the project. The marketing campaign doesn’t seem quite as robust as it could be. Its review embargo has yet to lift and Somebody skipped the autumn festival circuit. McCarten’s aforementioned works resulted in Oscar wins for stars Eddie Redmayne (Theory), Gary Oldman (Darkest Hour), and Rami Malek (Rhapsody). Ackie has yet to show up anywhere in the Academy’s precursors.
Even with the somewhat muted buzz, I still believe African-American and especially female viewers should turn out. This might result in a low teens beginning for the three-day gross.
Whitney Houston: I Wanna Dance with Somebody opening weekend prediction: $11.5 million (REVISED)
For my Puss in Boots: The Last Wish prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (12/20): I am revising my Babylon prediction down to $8.7 million
The La La Land man turns his attention to the debauchery of Hollywood’s early days in Babylon. Damien Chazelle directs the epic dramedy that rivals Avatar: The Way of Water (188 minutes) in terms of length. Brad Pitt, Margot Robbie, Diego Calva, Jean Smart, Jovan Adepo, Li Jun Li, Lukas Haas, Max Minghella, Samara Weaving, Olivia Wilde, and Tobey Maguire are among the sprawling cast.
While the review embargo hasn’t officially lifted, social media reactions are all over the map. There’s praise and contempt for the hard R rated extravaganza. This week it received five Golden Globes nods (including Best Picture – Musical/Comedy) and nine mentions from the Critics Choice Awards (including Best Picture). Oscar attention is anticipated.
There’s comparisons in terms of tone (and rampant drug use) to The Wolf of Wall Street from 2013. It also was presented during the Christmas season to a traditional three-day haul of just over $18 million. That’s probably the ceiling of where Babylon would manage.
I’ll project lower double digits is where this starts as it hopes the buzz keeps it going into the new year.
Babylon opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million (REVISED)
For my Puss in Boots: The Last Wish prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Update (12/20): I am revising my estimates down from $23.3 million to $18.3 million for the three-day and $37.4 million to $28.5 million for the five-day
Avatar: The Way of Water isn’t the only sequel that some critics say improves on the original during this holiday season. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish steps into theaters on December 21st eleven years after its predecessor. The DreamWorks Animation adventure finds Antonio Banderas reprising his voice work as the feline fugitive alongside Salma Hayek’s Kitty Softpaws. Other performers behind the mic include Harvey Guillén, Florence Pugh, Olivia Colman, Ray Winstone, Samson Kayo, John Mulaney, Wagner Moura, and Da’Vine Joy Randolph. Joel Crawford, who last helmed The Croods: A New Age, directs.
You may recall the first Boots arrived in 2011 as a spin-off for the massive Shrek franchise. The title character was introduced in 2004 with Shrek 2. Opening in October, Puss grossed with $34 million during its opening weekend with a $149 million eventual domestic haul.
If a decade plus seems like a long time between sequels, you’d be correct. That could be a demerit for its earnings potential. There was a Netflix animated series from 2015-2018 starring the character (without Banderas purring the lines). What will help its case is the word-of-mouth. Boots currently sports a 96% Rotten Tomatoes score and that tops part 1’s 86%. It has already nabbed a Best Animated Feature nomination at the Golden Globes. This is also the only feature not named Avatar catering to a family audience. Obviously this should also bring in very young viewers not looking to wade into Mr. Cameron’s pool.
A second place start behind Water is a given. I believe this could manage a five-day premiere in the mid to possibly high 30s. While that’s not hitting what the original accomplished in 3 days, Wish appears poised to hold up well in future weekends.
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish opening weekend prediction: $18.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $28.5 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Avatar: The Way of Water surfaces on your 3D and IMAX screens this Friday. It is, of course, James Cameron’s follow-up to 2009’s original which still stands as the biggest worldwide grosser of all time (and third overall domestically). The social media embargo lifted last week and the common refrain was “don’t bet against James Cameron”. I held off on my Oscar speculation until the official review embargo lapsed. That happened today.
Currently at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes (part 1 ended up at 82%), many critics are claiming this is an improvement over the first. Some of the same gripes remain including that it is overlong (3 hours and 12 minutes) and underdeveloped in its screenplay. Praise for its technical work is more universal.
In 2009, Avatar made an Oscar splash with nine nominations: Picture, Director, Art Direction (now Production Design), Cinematography, Film Editing, Original Score, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing (the Sound races are now combined), and Visual Effects. It won 3 – Art Direction, Cinematography, and Visual Effects.
Water has a chance of receiving the same number of nods. On Monday, the Golden Globes put it in their five for Picture (Drama) and Director. I already believe the Academy will make room for this in BP. It should be the second massive international blockbuster (alongside Top Gun: Maverick) in the mix. Cameron showing up in the directing quintet is not as automatic.
Let’s dispense with the easiest items. This is going to win Visual Effects just like its predecessor. That’s one of the slam dunk categories you can cross off already. Production Design and Cinematography and Sound are all probable inclusions. I’m less certain about the score and editing. Then there’s the Weeknd, who contributed the song “Nothing Is Lost (You Give Me Strength)”. I’m not so sure about its strength in that competition. He needs to overcome other superstars such as Lady Gaga, Rihanna, Taylor Swift, and Billie Eilish and that could be a tall order.
You’ll notice I haven’t discussed the performances or the screenplay. While there’s kudos for returnees like Zoe Saldana and Sigourney Weaver (in a different role than in 2009), don’t expect the acting to capture the attention of voters. Given that the writing is the most faulted aspect, don’t hold your breath expecting Cameron and cowriters Rick Jaffa and Amanda Silver to contend.
Bottom line: Avatar: The Way of Water looks to be Cameron’s third movie in a row (after Titanic and Avatar) to be in the BP race. Look for its nomination total to be at least 4-5 and maybe more. In other words, to borrow a phrase from most of Twitter last week, don’t bet against James Cameron. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Theaters owners are counting on Avatar: The Way of Water to save them from drowning in red ink following the second lowest box office frame of 2022. James Cameron’s long in the making sequel is the only new release out and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:
With Oscar buzz (like the 2009 original) and solid reviews, Water could potentially surface with the largest premiere of the year. To do so, it would need to surpass the $187 million that Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness achieved in May. Considering the runtime of over three hours, it may fall a bit short of that. My projection has it behind Multiverse and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever for the third heftiest ’22 haul and the 18th highest debut of all time.
Speaking of Wakanda, it will finally fall to second after five weeks atop the charts. Fellow holdovers Violent Night, Strange World, and The Menu should all slide a spot as well. All of these returnees experienced small declines this weekend, but may dip a tad more due to Avatar overtaking multiplexes.
Here’s how I see the top 5 shaking out:
1. Avatar: The Way of Water
Predicted Gross: $173.1 million
2. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
3. Violent Night
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
4. Strange World
Predicted Gross: $2.6 million
5. The Menu
Predicted Gross: $1.9 million
Box Office Results (December 9-11)
As mentioned, it was a sluggish time in theaters as Avatar is on deck to make a splash. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever made it a handful of weekends in first place with $11.2 million. That’s on pace with my $10.6 million prediction as the MCU sequel is up to $409 million.
Violent Night remained in second with a sturdy 35% drop at $8.7 million, in line with my $8.5 million take. The Yuletide shoot-em-up has grossed $26 million in ten days.
Disney’s flop Strange World was third with $3.7 million compared to my $3.1 million estimate. Overall tally is just $30 million.
The Menu was fourth with $2.7 million (I said $2.8 million) for $29 million total.
Devotion rounded out the top five with $2 million. I went with $1.7 million and the aviation drama is at $17 million.
Finally, there was a bit of good news in a bad weekend. A24’s The Whale, in which Brendan Fraser is expected to vie for the Best Actor Oscar, achieved 2022’s best per screen performance. In only six venues, it earned approximately $360k. That $60k average tops Everything Everywhere All at Once, which previously had the year’s strongest average at $50k. It expands across wider on December 21st.
The Hollywood Foreign Press Association, after a controversial couple of years which resulted in no aired telecast for the last ceremony, is moving forward with Jerrod Carmichael hosting the show on NBC in a month. The nominations for the 14 cinematic races were unveiled this morning.
I went 54 for 70 on my picks – an improvement over my previous 2021 performance of 49/70. The big winner: Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin. Its 8 nods led all pictures and landed mentions everywhere it was expected to.
On the flip side, it was a disappointing day for Women Talking. Sarah Polley’s expected Oscar contender managed two nods (Screenplay and Score) and missed out on several races where it was thought to be viable.
Let’s take the competitions one by one with my thoughts, shall we?
Best Motion Picture (Drama)
Nominees: Avatar: The Way of Water, Elvis, The Fabelmans, Tár, Top Gun: Maverick
How I Did: 4/5
Per above, the surprise here is Women Talking not making the cut. I had it in instead of Avatar (which is proving itself to be a highly likely hopeful for Oscar’s BP derby). While The Fabelmans could be considered a soft frontrunner, I would say everything but Tár has a shot to win.
Best Motion Picture (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Triangle of Sadness
How I Did: 4/5
I went with The Menu over Triangle but the latter’s inclusion was not unexpected. This is almost certainly a battle between Banshees and Everything.
Best Director
Nominees: James Cameron (Avatar: The Way of Water), Daniels (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Baz Luhrmann (Elvis), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin), Steven Spielberg (The Fabelmans)
How I Did: 4/5
Like in Best Drama, I went with Women Talking and its maker Sarah Polley instead of James Cameron. Also like that race, Spielberg might be favored but the others could upset the legend.
Best Actress (Drama)
Nominees: Cate Blanchett (Tár), Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Viola Davis (The Woman King), Ana de Armas (Blonde), Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans)
How I Did: 4/5
Danielle Deadwyler (Till) failing to make the quintet is unexpected as is de Armas’s nod in the Marilyn Monroe biopic (which garnered plenty of poor reviews). You’re going to want to bet on Blanchett in this one.
Best Actor (Drama)
Nominees: Austin Butler (Elvis), Brendan Fraser (The Whale), Hugh Jackman (The Son), Bill Nighy (Living), Jeremy Pope (The Inspection)
How I Did: 3/5
Jackman and Pope in over my selections of Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun). Mr. Cruise whiffing is noticeable. Perhaps the HFPA is still salty about him giving back his Globes during the height of their controversies. Elvis is the only picture in this group that received more than 1 nomination and Butler could certainly emerge victorious. So could Fraser.
Best Actress (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Lesley Manville (Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris), Margot Robbie (Babylon), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Menu), Emma Thompson (Good Luck to You, Leo Grande), Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywher All at Once)
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
This went as anticipated and should continue that way with Yeoh taking the trophy in January.
Best Actor (Musical/Comedy)
Nominees: Diego Calva (Babylon), Daniel Craig (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery), Adam Driver (White Noise), Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin), Ralph Fiennes (The Menu)
How I Did: 4/5
I went with Tom Hanks (A Man Called Otto) instead of Driver. It doesn’t matter much who the other four gentlemen are. This is Farrell’s to lose.
Best Supporting Actress
Nominees: Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever), Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin), Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Dolly de Leon (Triangle of Sadness), Carey Mulligan (She Said)
How I Did: 2/5 (ouch)
Supporting Actress has been a head scratcher all year as I’ve done Oscar projections. That proved true today with my poor performance. I went with Hong Chau (The Whale), Claire Foy (Women Talking), and Janelle Monae (Glass Onion) instead of Bassett, de Leon, and Mulligan. I’d say any of these contestants could win in this wide open field.
Best Supporting Actor
Nominees: Brendan Gleeson (The Banshees of Inisherin), Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin), Brad Pitt (Babylon), Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All at Once), Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse)
How I Did: 3/5
I had Paul Dano (The Fabelmans) and Tom Hanks (yet again for Elvis), but Koeghan and Redmayne made it. Quan is probably out front but I wouldn’t rule Gleeson out.
Best Screenplay
Nominees: The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Women Talking
How I Did: 5/5 (!)
Finally we get something for Women Talking. Yet this race (like Musical/Comedy) is probably either Banshees or Everything.
Best Animated Feature
Nominees: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Inu-Oh, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Turning Red
How I Did: 4/5
Inu-Oh is the surprise (I said The Bad Guys instead). Pinocchio is favored but I wouldn’t discount Marcel (which is picking up critics prizes).
Best Foreign Language Film
Nominees: All Quiet on theWestern Front, Argentina, 1985, Close, Decision to Leave, RRR
How I Did: 4/5
This could be a fascinating one. I don’t see Argentina or Close winning (which I left out for Bardo). The other 3 could.
Best Original Score
Nominees: Babylon, The Banshees of Inisherin, The Fabelmans, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Women Talking
How I Did: 4/5
This is where I should’ve left Avatar out as Banshees got in instead. This could be a close one and I’m not ready to pick a leader.
Best Original Song
Nominees: “Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing, “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, “Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick, “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, “Naatu Naatu” from RRR
How I Did: 4/5
Pop superstar Billie Eilish and “Nobody Like U” was left off for pop superstar Taylor Swift and “Carolina”. Don’t be shocked if this comes down to pop superstars Lady Gaga for “Hold My Hand” and Rihanna for “Lift Me Up”.
That means the following features nabbed these numbers in terms of nominations:
8 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
6 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
5 Nominations
Babylon, The Fabelmans
3 Nominations
Elvis, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Tár
2 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, Black Panther Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, The Menu, RRR, Top Gun: Maverick, Triangle of Sadness, Women Talking
1 Nomination
All Quiet on the Western Front, Argentina, 1985, Blonde, Close, Decision to Leave, Empire of Light, Good Luck to You, Leo Grande, The Good Nurse, The Inspection, Inu-Oh, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, She Said, The Son, Turning Red, The Whale, Where the Crawdads Sing, White Noise, The Woman King
The 28th Critics Choice Awards airs January 13th and the nominations are out on Wednesday. Like the Oscars, there are 10 Best Picture contenders. That’s easy. Then it gets a little weird.
The number of nominees in the other races has fluctuated recently from 5-7. I’m basing my estimates on 2021’s allotment, but it could look different come Wednesday morning when the nominees are announced. That means 6 in Director, the acting derbies, Ensemble, Young Performer, and Cinematography and 5 for the rest.
I’ll have a recap up Wednesday evening with my thoughts and how I performed!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
She Said
Tár
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
The Woman King
Women Talking
Alternate:
Elvis
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd Field, Tár
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Sarah Polley, Women Talking
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Alternate:
Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Cate Blanchett, Tár
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Margot Robbie, Babylon
Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate:
Olivia Colman, Empire of Light
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Alternate:
Diego Calva, Babylon
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness
Claire Foy, Women Talking
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Carey Mulligan, She Said
Alternate:
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Alternate:
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Aftersun
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Tár
Alternate:
Triangle of Sadness
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
She Said
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking
Alternate:
Living
Best Acting Ensemble
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
She Said
The Woman King
Women Talking
Alternate:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Young Actor/Actress
Predicted Nominees:
Frankie Corio, Aftersun
Jalyn Hall, Till
Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans
Madeleine McGraw, The Black Phone
Jenna Ortega, X
Sadie Sink, The Whale
Alternate:
Mason Thames, The Black Phone
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
The Bad Guys
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Alternate:
Wendell and Wild
Best Foreign Language Film
Predicted Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Decision to Leave
EO
RRR
Saint Omer
Alternate:
Close
Best Comedy
Predicted Nominees:
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Triangle of Sadness
Alternate:
The Menu
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
The Woman King
Alternate:
Living
Best Editing
Predicted Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
Top Gun: Maverick
Women Talking
Alternate:
Babylon
Best Hair and Makeup
Predicted Nominees:
Babylon
The Batman
Elvis
The Whale
X
Alternate:
The Woman King
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
The Fabelmans
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery
Alternate:
Elvis
Best Score
Predicted Nominees:
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Empire of Light
The Fabelmans
Women Talking
Alternate:
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Best Song
Predicted Nominees:
“Carolina” from Where the Crawdads Sing
“Hold My Hand” from Top Gun: Maverick
“Life Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” from RRR
“This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once
Alternate:
“Nobody Like U” from Turning Red
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Nope
RRR
Top Gun: Maverick
Alternate:
The Batman
That equates to these movies getting these numbers for nominations:
12 Nominations
The Fabelmans
11 Nominations
Everything Everywhere All at Once
9 Nominations
The Banshees of Inisherin
8 Nominations
Women Talking
7 Nominations
Babylon, Top Gun: Maverick
6 Nominations
Avatar: The Way of Water, The Whale
4 Nominations
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, She Said, Tár, The Woman King
3 Nominations
Aftersun, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Elvis, RRR
2 Nominations
All Quiet on the Western Front, Empire of Light, Till, Triangle of Sadness, X
1 Nomination
The Bad Guys, The Batman, The Black Phone, Decision to Leave, EO, Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio, Living, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris, Nope, Puss in Boots: The Last Wish, Saint Omer, Turning Red, Where the Crawdads Sing
Ruben Östlund’s satire Triangle of Sadness is divided into three parts. Only the concluding one feels right and you have to wade through a sea of spew and poo to get to that material. It tackles familiar themes that are handled in an unsubtle manner. They include the divide between the haves and the have nots, materialistic obsession, the never ending search for Likes, and the fact that you can’t eat just one pretzel stick.
It begins with a couple that’s hardly a model of stability. We meet them while arguing over a pricey restaurant bill. Some of the tension stems from them both being models. Carl (Harris Dickinson) still has to audition while Yaya (Charlbi Dean) is given free rein and costless trips due to her online popularity. One of those perks is boarding a fancy yacht filled with rich folks with filthy morals.
The schooner’s staff is instructed to never say no to its passengers no matter how outlandish their requests may be. The ship’s Captain (Woody Harrelson) drunkenly stows himself in his cabin to avoid them while the rest of the crew don’t have the luxury. In addition to Carl and Yaya, there’s Russian fertilizer magnate Dimitry (Zlatko Burić) and his wife and mistress and a sweet seeming old couple (Oliver Ford Davies and Amanda Walker) who made their fortune in grenades.
A storm is coming just in time for the Captain’s Dinner which finally gets said Captain out and about. The motion of the ocean leads to all manners of leakage in a gross out sequence that might make you gag too.
The final act occurs on an island with a smaller crew of returning cast. That’s when we’re introduced to Abigail (Dolly De Leon), who served as toilet manager on the boat (a job made even worse by recent events). Faced with a Cast Away type of situation, she’s the only one who has what it takes to be a survivor.
De Leon is a breath of fresh air when it is sorely needed in Östlund’s screenplay. She’s by far the most captivating character in the script coupled with the best performance. The prior interplay between Harrelson’s Marxist American and Burić’s Russian capitalist is tiresome. Carl and Yaya’s strained romance is not worth the hearts.
Abigail’s shifting of the power dynamic vs. her former employers (and basically dictators) would have made, I suspect, a fascinating movie. For the amount of time when that’s what Triangle is about, it is. The two chapters that precede it are shakier.
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