As the mild-mannered Waymond Wang, husband to Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once, Ke Huy Quan is the final Supporting Actor entrant in my Case Of posts.
The Case for Ke Huy Quan:
It’s an Oscar storyline for the ages. Nearly 40 years ago, Quan was a child actor appearing in iconic blockbusters as Short Round in Indiana Jones and the Temple of Doom and Data in The Goonies. His career stalled shortly after and he quit acting altogether in the early 90s. After Crazy Rich Asians (featuring his costar Yeoh) hit it big in 2018, Quan decided to get back in the mix. Everything clicked and he’s emerged victorious at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and SAG.
The Case Against Ke Huy Quan:
Just when it looked like he was on his way to a sweep, BAFTA threw a curveball and honored Barry Keoghan (The Banshees of Inisherin). If Everything fails to capitalize on its frontrunner status in Best Picture and other races, it could hinder Quan.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
Despite Keoghan’s victory at BAFTA, Quan appears destined for Academy glory next weekend. Of the four acting derbies, this is the easiest to project.
My Case Of posts (all 35 of them!) have concluded. Keep an eye on the blog and podcast (search Movies at the Speed of Speculation on Apple or other apps) for FINAL predictions coming your way on Wednesday, March 8th.
If you missed my earlier Supporting Actor write-ups, you can find them here:
Stephanie Hsu’s at turns villainous and sympathetic character(s) in Everything Everywhere All at Once is the final Case Of post for the Supporting Actress nominees at the 95th Academy Awards.
The Case for Stephanie Hsu:
Playing dual roles in the Daniels multi-genre tale, Hsu garnered raves as Michelle Yeoh’s daughter. SAG and Critics Choice nods followed and the Academy doesn’t shy away from honoring exciting relative newcomers (think Ariana DeBose from West Side Story last year).
The Case Against Stephanie Hsu:
The major precursors have spread the love around for Supporting Actress contenders, but it hasn’t included any victories for Hsu. Her costar Jamie Lee Curtis (who won SAG) may have a stronger narrative for the statue given her decades long career. Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) took Critics Choice and the Golden Globe (no nod for Hsu there) while Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) was honored at BAFTA (where Hsu also missed).
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
There are three performers vying for a walk up the stage and Hsu isn’t one of them.
My Case Of posts will continue with Hsu’s costar Ke Huy Quan in Everything Everywhere All at Once!
Entries for the other Supporting Actress hopefuls can be found here:
Bill Nighy’s performance as an English bureaucrat with a terminal cancer diagnosis in Living is the final Case Of post for the five Best Actor hopefuls.
The Case for Bill Nighy:
From a randy aging rocker in Love Actually to Davy Jones in the Pirates of the Caribbean franchise and a zombified stepdad in Shaun of the Dead, Nighy has been a fixture on domestic screens for two decades. His work in the acclaimed Living somehow marks his first major awards exposure. He’s been nominated everywhere that counts from the Globes to Critics Choice to SAG and BAFTA.
The Case Against Bill Nighy:
Despite being included in all significant precursors, there’s no victory to be found for the central performance in this remake of Akira Kurosawa’s Ikiru. All the attention has been focused on Austin Butler (Elvis) and Brendan Fraser (The Whale) as they battle down the stretch.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
While making the quintet was practically guaranteed, Nighy’s chances of winning are DOA for Living.
My Case Of posts will continue with Stephanie Hsu in Everything Everywhere All at Once!
Write-ups for the other Best Actor nominees can be found here:
Woody Harrelson headlines the sports comedy Champions on March 10th which marks the solo directorial debut for Bobby Farrelly. A remake of a 2018 Spanish pic, a basketball coach in legal hot water whose community service involves leading a team with intellectual disabilities. Kaitlin Olson, Matt Cook, Ernie Hudson, Cheech Marin, and Mike Smith are among the supporting cast.
Along with his brother Peter, the Farrellys directed comedy blockbusters including Dumb and Dumber and There’s Something About Mary. In between there was cult favorite Kingpin starring Harrelson. Peter’s solo career includes a Best Picture winner with 2018’s Green Book. This is Bobby’s first big screen behind the camera assignment since Dumb and Dumber To in 2014.
Bobby’s initial effort without his sibling is not expected to score highly at the box office. If it manages to top $10 million, that would be a pleasant surprise for Focus Features. I wouldn’t count on it. It might be lucky to gross half of that.
Champions opening weekend prediction: $5.1 million
As the laundromat running Evelyn whose many dimensions are explored in Everything Everywhere All at Once, Michelle Yeoh is the final Case Of post for the five Best Actress contenders.
The Case for Michelle Yeoh:
From acclaimed Hong Kong action flicks with Jackie Chan to fighting alongside James Bond in Tomorrow Never Dies to Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon to the overprotective future mother-in-law in Crazy Rich Asians, Yeoh had many career highlights until this multi-genre pic from the Daniels eclipsed them all. The Hollywood Foreign Press honored her with the Golden Globe for Actress in a Musical or Comedy. Last weekend, she took home the SAG for Actress where 16 of the last 22 winners became the Academy’s recipients in the 21st century. Everywhere is the frontrunner for Best Picture and that certainly doesn’t hurt.
The Case Against Michelle Yeoh:
Cate Blanchett in Tár. While Yeoh’s previous victories are a road map to Oscar glory, so are Blanchett’s as she has taken the Globe in the Drama competition, BAFTA, and Critics Choice.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
It cannot be overstated how this is a coin flip between Yeoh and Blanchett. One could argue Yeoh has the late momentum given the recent SAG and Everything‘s likely success in the biggest race of all.
My Case Of posts will continue with Bill Nighy in Living!
For my other entries on the Actress hopefuls, click here:
The writers of A Quiet Place are hoping to make some noise at the box office when 65 opens on March 10th. Scribes Scott Beck and Bryan Woods handle directorial and scripting duties for the sci-fi thriller. The number refers to “million years ago” as pilot Adam Driver becomes stranded on Earth where dinosaurs roam and attack. Costars include Ariana Greenblatt, Chloe Coleman, and Nika King.
Reportedly made for a substantial price tag of over $90 million, 65 risks hefty losses for Sony. Buzz seems to be muted and theaters could be a quiet place where it’s playing. Some potential viewers may be distracted by Scream VI debuting against it. It also may not help that this isn’t based on known IP and that Driver, while certainly an acclaimed actor, isn’t a box office draw.
I’ll say this manages to top double digits, but not by much.
In January 2022, Scream successfully resurrected the franchise that Wes Craven began in 1996. A sequel was approved immediately and Scream VI slashes into multiplexes March 10th. Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett are back directing with Melissa Barrera, Jasmin Savoy Brown, Mason Gooding, Jenna Ortega (whose star has risen thanks to Wednesday), Hayden Panettiere, and Courtney Cox reprising their roles from prior installments. Other costars include Jack Champion, Henry Czerny, Liana Liberato, Dermot Mulroney, Tony Revolori, and Samara Weaving. For the first time, Neve Campbell is not among the cast.
In 2011, Scream 4 marked the financial nadir of the bunch when it made only $38 million domestically. A silent decade between entries got the nostalgia juices flowing as last year’s Scream took in $30 million in its first three days and $81 million total stateside. With a B+ Cinemascore (quite solid for a horror pic), anticipation for this sequel should be high.
Scream VI appears poised to challenge the record opening weekend for the series. That belongs to Scream 3 with $34 million and tracking suggests Ghostface could wield the power to top that number. I’ll forecast it manages to get there and perhaps top $40 million.
Scream VI opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million
Steven Spielberg’s direction of The Fabelmans is my final Case Of post for the filmmakers vying for the prize at the Academy Awards.
The Case for Steven Spielberg:
He’s Steven Spielberg. Arguably the most iconic and famous director in the medium’s history, he drew kudos for this most personal of projects that drew from his upbringing. The Hollywood Foreign Press Association honored him with their directorial statue at the Golden Globes. For his ninth nomination in this category (marking 22 total when factoring contending Pictures and his screenplay for this), voters may feel he’s overdue since it’s been nearly a quarter century since the last win. As a reminder, he’s a previous recipient for 1993’s Schindler’s List and 1998’s Saving Private Ryan.
The Case Against Steven Spielberg:
He’s not Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert of Everything Everywhere All at Once. The Daniels have taken the majority of the precursors like Critics Choice and especially the Directors Guild (where the DGA and Oscar match is high). Spielberg wasn’t even nominated for BAFTA. The film itself, while critically acclaimed, was a box office flop.
Previous Nominations (directing only):
Close Encounters of the Third Kind (1977); Raiders of the Lost Ark (1981); E.T.: The Extra-Terrestrial (1982); Schindler’s List (1993) – WON; Saving Private Ryan (1998) – WON; Munich (2005); Lincoln (2012); West Side Story (2021)
The Verdict:
Due to his legendary status, Spielberg has a sliver of a chance to pull a major upset over the Daniels. Yet it’s grown much smaller due to the Daniels dominance this season.
My Case Of posts will continue with Michelle Yeoh in Everything Everywhere All at Once!
For the other directorial hopefuls in my Case Of series, click here:
As the sympathetic Dominic in The Banshees of Inisherin, Barry Keoghan is the next Case Of entry for the Supporting Actor contenders.
The Case for Barry Keoghan:
Following acclaimed performances including Dunkirk and The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Keoghan get his first major awards exposure along with his three Banshees cast mates. Critics Choice, SAG, and Golden Globe nods followed with a surprising win at BAFTA. His lovestruck monologue to Kerry Condon is a ready made for your consideration Oscar clip.
The Case Against Barry Keoghan:
Ke Huy Quan from Everything Everywhere All at Once has a dandy clip or two himself and he won Critics Choice, SAG, and the Globe. Academy members may assume Keoghan has plenty more bites at the apple and he could split votes with costar Brendan Gleeson.
Previous Nominations:
None
The Verdict:
Despite the unexpected recognition from friends across the pond, Quan remains the heavy favorite for Supporting Actor.
My Case Of posts will continue with Steven Spielberg’s direction of The Fabelmans!
Write-ups for the other hopefuls in the race can be found here:
Creed III looks to KO all competitors as the Japanese animated episodic effort Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba – To the Swordsmith Village and Guy Ritchie’s action comedy Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Michael B. Jordan makes his directorial debut in the third feature in the Creed franchise and ninth in the Rocky cinematic universe. It is the first not to feature Rocky himself Sylvester Stallone. However, reviews are strong and I see no reason why this wouldn’t continue the muscular grosses. The first two Creed flicks opened over long Thanksgiving frames. Part III could manage the highest three-day start at just under $40 million.
Swordsmith is a head scratcher. In 2021, Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba the Movie: Mugen Train astonished forecasters with $21 million in its first weekend. Swordsmith is not a sequel. Instead it combines episodes from a TV show related to the franchise. I’ve yet to see a theater count so that could alter my take. If it manages close to half of what Train accomplished, it would place in the top five.
Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre, the latest collaboration between Ritchie and Jason Statham, seems like it is being dumped into multiplexes and my meager $4 million projection leaves it in sixth.
As for holdovers, Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania experienced a massive second weekend dip (more on that below). The third frame drop-off shouldn’t be as disastrous (perhaps a bit over 50%). Cocaine Bear and Jesus Revolution both over performed in their premieres. The Revolution sophomore decline may only be in the high 20s with Cocaine being cut in the low to mid 40s.
Here’s how I envision the top six looking:
1. Creed III
Predicted Gross: $39.2 million
2. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania
Predicted Gross: $14.6 million
3. Cocaine Bear
Predicted Gross: $13.2 million
4. Jesus Revolution
Predicted Gross: $11.3 million
5. Demon Slayer: Kimetsu No Yaiba– To the Swordsmith Village
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
6. Operation Fortune: Ruse de Guerre
Predicted Gross: $4 million
Box Office Results (February 24-26)
The #1 spot came without bragging rights as Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania suffered the largest second frame fall of all the 31 MCU entries. At 70%, the Paul Rudd threequel made $31.9 million. I was slightly more generous at $34.2 million. The ten-day tally is $167 million and it will be the best earner of the Ant-Man trilogy. It still scored a record that Disney/MCU can’t be thrilled about.
Universal, on the other hand, can celebrate their marketing campaign for Cocaine Bear as it paid off with $23.2 million for second place. That’s well above the rosiest predictions and considerably beyond my call of $14.3 million.
Faith-based drama Jesus Revolution continued over performances for the genre at $15.8 million in third. I was more skeptical with only $8.7 million. With an A+ Cinemascore, this could be blessed with smallish declines in the coming weeks.
Avatar: The Way of Water was fourth with $4.8 million (I said $5.4 million) to bring the eleven week gross to $665 million.
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish rounded out the top five with $4.1 million. I went with $4.6 million and the animated sequel has amassed $173 million.
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