Paramount hopes audiences are game for The Running Man when it debuts November 14th. The sci-fi action flick casts Glen Powell in a role that Arnold Schwarzenegger played in the 1987 original. Based on a Stephen King novel, costars include Josh Brolin, Colman Domingo, Lee Pace, Jayme Lawson, Michael Cera, Emilia Jones, Daniel Ezra, and William H. Macy. Edgar Wright directs. This is the second 2025 adaptation of a dystopian tale written under King’s pseudonym Richard Bachman behind The Long Walk.
Following Predator: Badlands by a week (another Ah-nuld adjacent release), Running hopes to pick up speed based on Powell’s star power and decent early word-of-mouth. The original isn’t exactly considered a classic, but it has a solid cult B-movie reputation. I don’t think this reaches near $40 million like Badlands. Low to mid 20s seems more likely.
The Running Man opening weekend prediction: $19.6 million
For my Now You See Me: Now You Don’t prediction, click here:
Predator: Badlands is the ninth overall installment in the nearly 40-year-old franchise and the third in a row from director Dan Trachtenberg. Opening Friday, it follows up 2022’s Prey and this summer’s Predator: Killer of Killers. Elle Fanning stars alongside Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi and Mike Homik.
Prey and Killers received impressive reviews with respective 94% and 95% Tomato meters and 71/78 scores on Metacritic. Badlands is lagging behind though not by much with 88% on RT and 69 for Meta.
In 1987, Predator starring the future Governors of California and Minnesota had a 50% chance to win Best Visual Effects, but lost to sole competitor Innerspace. VE is the only race where Badlands could materialize. If so, it would continue a recent trend of entries in long existing franchises (No Time to Die, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Alien: Romulus) nabbing slots. I’ve yet to list this in my top 10 possibilities. So while I’m skeptical it makes the quintet, it is not an impossibility and don’t be surprised if it pops up in the bottom rungs of my VE hopefuls when I do my next update. My Oscar prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (11/05): Posting a significant update with Nuremberg and Die, My Love predicted openings at $3 million and $2.5 million, respectively.
After a frighteningly bad Halloween weekend that marked the worst box office frame of 2025, Predator: Badlands seeks to scare up decent business. We also have the boxing biopic Christy with Sydney Sweeney debuting and you can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
There’s no question that Predator: Badlands will easily be #1 though it has a wide range of possibilities. A worst case scenario might be high teens/low 20s with the rosiest performance nearing $40 million. I’m going mid to high 20s.
Christy could have benefited from better reviews and more awards speculation, but it should struggle to make the top 5.
On a side note, there’s two other wannabe Oscar contenders premiering: Jennifer Lawrence and Robert Pattinson in Die, My Love and the historical drama Nuremberg with Russell Crowe and Rami Malek. I’ve yet to see theater counts on either and both saw their awards prospects dim upon festival screenings. I will update my numbers if I feel one or both have a chance of breaking through.
As for holdovers, it could be a close race for #2 and I have Regretting You just edging current champ Black Phone 2. It could also be tight between Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc and Bugonia to round out the high five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Predator: Badlands
Predicted Gross: $27.6 million
2. Regretting You
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
3. Black Phone 2
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
4. Nuremberg
Predicted Gross: $3 million
5. Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million
6. Bugonia
Predicted Gross: $2.7 million
7. Die, My Love
Predicted Gross: $2.5 million
8. Christy
Predicted Gross: $2.2 million
Box Office Results (October 31-November 2)
The worst Halloween weekend since 1993 is thanks to a dearth of new material with a likely assist by game 7 of the World Series on Saturday night. Black Phone 2 managed to return to 1st in its third outing with $8.3 million, on target with my $8 million call. The horror sequel has taken in $61 million so far.
Regretting You was close behind in second with $7.8 million, ahead of my $6.1 million prediction. The romantic drama stands at $27 million after two weeks.
Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc, after an unexpected #1 bow, fell an anticipated 66% to third with $6.2 million (I said $6.4 million). The ten-day tally is $30 million.
Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos and starring Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons didn’t exactly having bragging rights in fourth with $5 million. Yet it did easily eclipse my $2.8 million projection as it expanded nationwide. Counting its limited release the previous weekend, it’s made $6 million.
The 40th anniversary reissue of Back to the Future was fifth with $4.9 million compared to my $4.6 million guesstimate. The extra coin brought its overall domestic total to $221 million.
Finally, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere sank 58% in its sophomore go-round in sixth with $3.7 million, I was more generous at $4.8 million and the biopic has earned a mere $16 million.
It’s been three weeks (!) since I’ve updated my Oscar predictions, but there was prognosticating activity in the meantime. I did deep dives on Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups, you can find them here:
Now that November is here, there are some notable shifts with Frankenstein back in the BP top 10 and Bugonia falling out. In fact, I only have Bugonia getting a solo nod in Adapted Screenplay. Amanda Seyfried returns to the Actress quintet with Emma Stone dropping.
That’s better than Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which I have blanking on nomination morning. That means Jeremy Allen White is on the outside looking in with Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent) taking his spot. Jeremy Strong’s Supporting Actor work in Nowhere is nowhere in the top 5 with Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another) elevating.
Only Director and Supporting Actress stay intact in the biggies while we see shifting #1’s in Production Design, Sound, and a different selected song for Wicked: For Good in the pole position. You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Bugonia (PR: 10) (-1)
12. No Other Choice (PR: 12) (E)
13. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (+1)
14. The Secret Agent (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (-2)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (E)
7. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 10) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (+4)
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (E)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)
8. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (E)
10. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (E)
10. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blue Moon (PR: 7) (+1)
7. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 8) (E)
9. Is This Thing On? (PR: 6) (-3)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Train Dreams (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Song Song Blue
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sirât (PR: 7) (E)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Arco (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Elio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 6) (E)
7. Scarlet (PR: 7) (E)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (E)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters from Andrivka (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Cover-Up (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Seeds (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 6) (E)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 5) (-2)
8. The Alabama Solution (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Orwell 2 + 2 = 5
The Librarians
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Hamnet (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 8) (E)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Frankenstein (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Train Dreams (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: 7) (-2)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: Not Ranked)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-1)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Snow White (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-2)
7. F1 (PR: 6) (-1)
8. No Other Choice (PR: 8) (E)
9. Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Weapons (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 8) (E)
9. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Bugonia (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (E)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Bugonia
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+4)
2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)
3. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-2)
4. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (-1)
5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-2)
7. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: 10) (+3)
10. “Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Sinners (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Hamnet (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-2)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
The Phoenician Scheme
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Warfare (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Mickey 17 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (-3)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (-1)
And that leaves the following movies receiving these numbers of nominations:
13 Nominations
One Battle After Another
12 Nominations
Sinners
11 Nominations
Hamnet, Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Marty Supreme
7 Nominations
Sentimental Value
6 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, It Was Just an Accident
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent
1 Nominations
28 Years Later, 2000 Meter from Andrivka, Arco, Blue Moon, Bugonia, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Seeds, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zooptopia 2
It’s been a 2025 of unimpressive box office numbers for Sydney Sweeney features including Eden and Americana. That may end in December with The Housemaid, but I look for it to continue in November with Christy. The true life sports biopic casts Sweeney as boxer Christy Martin with David Michôd directing. The supporting cast includes Ben Foster, Merritt Wever, Katy O’Brian, and Ethan Embry.
Christy premiered in early September at the Toronto Film Festival hoping to kick off an Oscar campaign for its star. While her performance is being appreciated, reviews themselves were so-so with 69% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 56 Metacritic. That word-of-mouth hasn’t completely KO’ed Sweeney’s awards chances, but did significantly hamper it.
I doubt audiences turn up though it should top the $1 million and $500,000 that Eden and Americana respectively made in their first weekends of semi-wide release.
As October draws to a close, it’s time for a deep dive into the Best Picture race with two months left in the release calendar. I’ve done the same with the directing competition and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups over the past few days, you can access them here:
I published my first preview of the Best Picture field on April 17th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the 10 BP hopefuls along with 15 other possibilities . At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
After the Hunt
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
The Life of Chuck
Marty Supreme
No Other Choice
The Rivals of Amziah King
Sentimental Value
Wicked: For Good
Other Possibilities:
Alpha
Ballad of a Small Player
Bugonia
Die, My Love
F1
Frankenstein
Highest 2 Lowest
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Materialists
Michael
One Battle After Another
Sinners
The Smashing Machine
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
The Testament of Ann Lee
Let’s dispense with the movies that are no longe viable. The Rivals of Amziah King and Michael will be 2026 releases. The following titles did not get solid enough reviews, box office, or a combo of both to truly be threats: After the Hunt (which I initially had ranked at #1 back in the spring), The Life of Chuck, (despite winning the 2024 Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival), Alpha, Ballad of a Small Player, Die, My Love (though Jennifer Lawrence could contend in Actress), F1 (which was a critically appreciated hit and could nab some tech nods), Highest 2 Lowest, Kiss of the Spider Woman (perhaps Jennifer Lopez can sneak in Supporting Actress), Materialists, and The Smashing Machine.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and The Testament of Ann Lee aren’t dead in the water, but the former is a sizable box office disappointment with some less than stellar reviews and the latter is perhaps too divisive. Their leads Jeremy Allen White and Amanda Seyfried have healthier chances in the lead acting contests.
So let’s get into the 11 of the 25 aforementioned titles that do still have a decent chance and a few others worthy of mention.
The soft frontrunner appears to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another with its multiple acting contenders and some of the highest critical praise of the year. Even though it disappointed a bit at the box office, the Cinemascore grade of A indicates it would be a satisfactory audience choice for voters to select. Plus PTA is generally seen as overdue for Academy affection.
Its biggest competition could be Hamnet from Chloé Zhao, who picked up a directorial prize and a BP win for 2020’s Nomadland. History could repeat five years later for her heralded historical drama.
I’m also confident that Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, the vampiric financial smash from the spring, will be remembered on BP ballots even though horror flicks often have a hard time breaking through. This should be a welcome exception.
Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is a festival darling that has enough goodwill to make the BP cut.
Two upcoming releases have their review embargoes intact but have screened to encouraging word-of-mouth: Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme (where Timothée Chalamet appears to be a Best Actor favorite) and Wicked: For Good, part two to Wicked which garnered BP and other nominations last year. Both should find themselves among the ten.
That’s six pics (One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good) that I’m confident are in. Twelve others are jockeying for the four additional slots.
I’ve had Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein in and out of my lineup at various times. I’m becoming more convinced it could be Netflix’s best chance in BP.
An argument could easily be made that the streamer’s Jay Kelly from Noah Baumbach is their strongest horse with its Hollywood friendly storyline. Some reviews have been lukewarm, but I still am leaning toward it placing in the 10.
To close the Netflix loop, Train Dreams has its ardent admirers and I wouldn’t totally discount it. Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite seems to be fizzling a tad due to some ambivalent audience reaction, but a rebound is not out of the question.
Avatar: Fire and Ash looks to follow in the footsteps of its two predecessors. Having it in or near the selected 10 seems like a smart move but screenings will soon tell the tale.
Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident from Neon took the Palme d’Or at Cannes and I’m increasingly confident it’ll be an international contender in its own race and BP (like Neon’s Sentimental Value).
The Secret Agent (Neon) and No Other Choice (Neon) could accomplish the same dual noms though it’s rare for more than two international submissions to get into the big dance. And not every Neon distributed foreign title can make the list… can they?
Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos may be a touch too oddball for BP though I’d be careful to dismiss the latest from The Favourite and Poor Things maker.
Richard Linklater’s has had an impressive year with Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague though I’m guessing neither are real threats.
Finally, Song Sung Blue (out Christmas) is said to be a crowdpleaser and Kate Hudson is a possibility in Best Actress. A Musical/Comedy BP spot at the Globes seems more feasible than Academy love.
Keep an eye on the blog with updated rankings on BP and all other feature film races hitting shortly!
Focus Features may focus part of their awards campaigning on Song Sung Blue as it readies a Christmas Day release. The musical drama comes from Hustle & Flow and Dolemite Is My Name director Craig Brewer and tells the true story of a down-on-their-luck couple who form a Neil Diamond tribute band. Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson play the crooners with a supporting cast including Ella Anderson, King Princess, Michael Imperioli, Mustafa Shakir, Fisher Stevens, and Jim Belushi.
Blue played at the AFI Fest earlier this week and word-of-mouth indicates this could be a crowdpleaser with holiday box office potential. There aren’t a large volume of reviews out yet with 80% on Rotten Tomatoes and perhaps a more telling 57 on Metacritic. Best Picture is likely not in the cards.
The best and probably only chance at a nomination is Kate Hudson for lead Actress. Even some of the negative ink is singing her praises. If she makes the cut, it would come 25 years after her first and only nod in supporting for Almost Famous.
I believe it’s pretty safe to assume Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) have secured placement in the quintet. That leaves two slots for a handful or so of contenders and Hudson could have an enticing narrative for voters in a showy role. My feeling right now is she just misses, but my thoughts could shift based on precursors. Frontrunner Buckley, by the way, is contending in another Focus distributed project and they could train their sights on securing her the victory.
The film seems poised to be a factor at the Golden Globes in the Musical/Comedy categories including Picture and Jackman, and Hudson in their lead derbies. Oscar could be a tougher sell and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Predator: Badlands looks to awaken a dormant box office when it debuts November 7th. It marks the ninth overall feature in the nearly 40-year-old franchise that began with the Arnold Schwarzenegger classic. Dan Trachtenberg directs his second pic in the series after helming the 2022’s Prey and the animated Predator: Killer of Killers back in June. Both were acclaimed and they premiered via streaming on Hulu. Elle Fanning stars alongside Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi and Mike Homik.
Technically AVP: Alien vs. Predator holds the record for best start among the films at $38 million back in 2004. As far as Predator titles without an iconic sparring partner, 2010’s Predators and 2018’s The Predator experienced virtually identical openings of $24.7 and $24.6 million, respectively.
Early word-of-mouth for Badlands is solid yet some fans may choose to wait for to Disney+/Hulu. It could manage to top expectations because there’s not much else out there. I also wouldn’t be surprised at all if it sees a mid 20s output similar to what we witnessed in 2010 and 2018 and that would be considered a letdown. I’ll give it slightly more.
Predator: Badlands opening weekend prediction: $27.6 million
The box office should be scary this weekend and not in a good way as there likely won’t be any films topping $10 million… with one potential unconventional exception.
New wide releases are the 40th anniversary re-release of Back to the Future and the expansion of Bugonia. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
I have Future hitting mid single digits and that’s probably going to put the Robert Zemeckis classic toward the bottom of the top five (or six). I have it neck and neck with the second frame of Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which delivered subpar numbers.
That’s more than I’m giving the latest Yorgos Lanthimos effort starring Emma Stone. With my Bugonia estimate under $3 million, it should be outside the first half of the top 10.
Chainsaw Man: The Movie: Reze Arc exceeded expectations (more on that below) and continued a banner year for anime. However, a drop in the mid to high 60s is probably coming.
Regretting You weathered poor reviews for an opening in line with estimates and I foresee a sophomore dip in the mid 50s.
If Chainsaw and Regretting play according to my though process, that could allow Black Phone 2 to return to #1 (officially). Moviegoers might seek a fright fest this weekend and the sequel fits the bill.
So what’s with all the uncertainty about what’s actually going to be #1? KPop Demon Hunters: A Sing-Along Event is returning to theaters for Halloween weekend. The animated Netflix juggernaut first hit theaters in August for two days after its streaming start, resulting in a fantastic $19.2 million on Saturday and Sunday. This time around it’s playing all three days and I’m estimating it will generate $12 million. Here’s the catch. Netflix doesn’t officially report their numbers so it’ll be #1 with an asterisk.
Here’s how I have the top six (counting KPop) shaking out:
*1. KPop Demon Hunters: A Sing-Along Event
Predicted Gross: $12 million
2. Black Phone 2
Predicted Gross: $8 million
3. Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
4. Regretting You
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
6. Back to the Future
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Box Office Results (October 24-26)
In a surprise result, Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc was easily #1 with $18 million, eclipsing my $12.8 million estimate. It continues an impressive 2025 for Asian animated material including KPop and the record breaking Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle.
Regretting You took the runner-up spot with $13.6 million, just under my $14 million prediction. The romantic drama based on a Colleen Hoover novel was hampered by far less buzz than last year’s It Ends with Us (a fellow Hoover adaptation) in addition to poor reviews.
Black Phone 2 fell two rungs to third with $12.9 million compared to my $13.7 million call. The ten-day total is $48 million.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere was a major disappointment in fourth with $8.8 million. I had it placing first with $16.1 million but moviegoers didn’t warm up to the musical biopic of The Boss.
Tron: Ares rounded out the top five with $4.9 million (I said $5 million) for a three-week tally of $63 million.
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. All four acting contests have been covered. If you missed my write-ups on them, they are linked here:
I published my first preview of the directing field on April 12th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Other Possibilities:
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Edward Berger, Ballad of a Small Player
James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia
Spike Lee, Highest 2 Lowest
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
The 5 eventual nominees could be found among those 15 possibilities. However, we can be confident some won’t make it in. For Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King seems to be a 2026 release. After the Hunt was a commercial and critical disappointment and Luca Guadagnino appears to be a non-factor. The out of contention status also applies to Edward Berger, Mike Flanagan, and Spike Lee.
Let’s get into the others and other names not raised back in April. Both Josh Safdie and Chloé Zhao’s movies are probable safe bets for BP. They could certainly come along for the ride. I’m slightly more confident in Zhao contending for her second trophy after winning in 2020 for Nomadland though Safdie is definitely viable in his solo behind the camera effort.
Park Chan-wook’s fortunes should be tied to whether No Other Choice makes BP and I keep going back and forth on that. The same could be said Noah Baumbach, Jon M. Chu, Guillermo del Toro, and Yorgos Lanthimos. Their respective features Jay Kelly, Wicked: For Good (as yet unseen), Frankenstein, and Bugonia are all on the BP bubble. Same goes for the unmentioned A House of Dynamite and Kathryn Bigelow.
Even if Avatar: Fire and Ash gets into BP, I’m skeptical James Cameron is in unless the third franchise entry as universally seen as the best. We’ll know that in a few weeks.
Sentimental Value is not on the bubble. Its ticket is likely punched and that could benefit Joachim Trier for a first nomination though I don’t believe his nom is assured as the movie’s.
Who is assured? Paul Thomas Anderson. One Battle is your soft frontrunner for BP and this is a golden opportunity for the Academy to honor PTA for this and his overall body of work.
I also think Ryan Coogler (Sinners) is in for his vampire epic which is the other Warner Bros title vying for BP alongside One Battle.
A pair of foreign filmmakers could vie for a slot – Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) and Kieber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent). Their fortunes are also tied to BP inclusion and I feel the latter has a stronger pathway.
In conclusion, I feel safe with PTA, Coogler, and Zhao RSVP’d for the directorial dance. The other two noms could be filled by plenty of names above. My in-depth posts on the six biggest categories will conclude with Best Picture!
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