Month: December 2025

31st Critics Choice Awards Winner Predictions

This Sunday, January 4th, the 31st Critics’ Choice Awards air on E! and USA (with return host Chelsea Handler) and they should provide the first glimpse of various future Oscar winners even before nominations come out. The Best Picture winner at CCA has matched the Academy’s 6 out of the past 10 years including the last 3 in a row. As of late, the acting winners match at about a 3 for 4 ratio.

What’s the main storyline in my estimation? I believe there’s a Warner Bros showdown in BP between One Battle After Another and Sinners (that same logic applies to Director). The former from Paul Thomas Anderson appears to be the frontrunner, but I wouldn’t be surprised if CCA honored Ryan Coogler’s vampiric saga. It’s a close call though I’m going with the safer bet.

Let’s walk through each category with a winner and runner-up selection and some brief commentary.

Best Picture

Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good

Winner: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

See above

Best Director

Nominees: Paul Thomas Anderson (One Battle After Another), Ryan Coogler (Sinners), Guillermo del Toro (Frankenstein), Josh Safdie (Marty Supreme), Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value), Chloé Zhao (Hamnet)

Winner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Ryan Coogler, Sinners

See above

Best Actress

Nominees: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Rose Byrne (If I Had Legs I’d Kick You), Chase Infiniti (One Battle After Another), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee), Emma Stone (Bugonia)

It is generally assumed that Buckley is the easiest pick of the acting quartet to forecast and that she is poised to sweep through the season. This is where it should begin. If there is a threat, watch out for Reinsve or Byrne.

Winner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Runner-Up: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Best Actor

Nominees: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme), Leonardo DiCaprio (One Battle After Another), Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon), Michael B. Jordan (Sinners), Wagner Moura (The Secret Agent)

DiCaprio could take this and I wouldn’t totally discount Hawke or Moura for the upset. However, the smart money is on Chalamet to triumph and potentially run the table.

Winner: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

Runner-Up: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value), Ariana Grande (Wicked: For Good), Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass (Sentimental Value), Amy Madigan (Weapons), Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners), Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)

This is a tough one. I suspect the Sentimental performers will cancel each other out and Mosaku is unlikely. CCA could actually honor Grande and I think she has a stronger shot here than with the Academy. Taylor is arguably the soft Oscar frontrunner and this show could kick off a sweep. Yet I’m going with veteran Madigan for her Halloween costume inspiring work in Weapons.

Winner: Amy Madigan, Weapons

Runner-Up: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Benicio del Toro (One Battle After Another), Jacob Elordi (Frankenstein), Paul Mescal (Hamnet), Sean Penn (One Battle After Another), Adam Sandler (Jay Kelly), Stellan Skarsgård (Sentimental Value)

Another challenging selection as the voters could easily make this is a Sentimental victory for Skarsgård. It’s tempting to pick him, but I’m rolling with del Toro’s performance that inspired many a meme.

Winner: Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Best Original Screenplay

Nominees: Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Sorry, Baby, Weapons

Another possibility for Value though Sinners should nab this one as it doesn’t have to go up against studio competitor Battle.

Winner: Sinners

Runner-Up: Sentimental Value

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: Bugonia, Frankenstein, Hamnet, No Other Choice, One Battle After Another, Train Dreams

This is an easy call for Battle with Hamnet as the only potential spoiler.

Winner: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Hamnet

Best Foreign Language Film

Nominees: Belén, It Was Just an Accident, Left-Handed Girl, No Other Choice, The Secret Agent, Sirât

CCA has a rule that if a film is nominated for BP, it doesn’t get on the ballot for this race (the same rule applies to Best Comedy). That’s why you won’t find Sentimental Value here. Accident is the favorite though I’m tempted to go with an upset since this marks its sole nod (not making Director or screenplay). Choice and Agent could win. Once again I’ll play it safe.

Winner: It Was Just an Accident

Runner-Up: No Other Choice

Best Comedy

Nominees: The Ballad of Wallis Island, Eternity, Friendship, The Naked Gun, The Phoenician Scheme, Splitsville

A dark horse pick like Friendship is within the realm of possibility and Phoenician is doable. That said, The Naked Gun remake got some deserved credit for bringing the laugh-a-minute spoof genre back and it might be rewarded for that.

Winner: The Naked Gun

Runner-Up: The Phoenician Scheme

Best Animated Feature

Nominees: Arco, Elio, In Your Dreams, KPop Demon Hunters, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Zootopia 2

I would argue that noms came out before Zootopia 2 turned into a massive box office juggernaut which gave it a better chance to win. The cultural juggernaut that is KPop probably would be my pick regardless.

Winner: KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: Zootopia 2

Best Casting and Ensemble

Nominees: Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

Another showdown between Battle and Sinners and I’m going with the same result as BP.

Winner: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: Sinners

Best Young Actor/Actress

Nominees: Everett Blunck (The Plague), Miles Caton (Sinners), Cary Christopher (Weapons), Shannon Mahina Gorman (Rental Family), Jacobi Jupe (Hamnet), Nina Ye (Left-Handed Girl)

Caton’s work in Sinners should emerge though Jupe could threaten.

Winner: Miles Caton, Sinners

Runner-Up: Jacobi Jupe, Hamnet

Best Cinematography

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Train Dreams

Sinners with Battle right behind.

Winner: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Costume Design

Nominees: Frankenstein, Hamnet, Hedda, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

The CCA throwing a bone to Wicked is a possibility. The safer pick is Frankenstein.

Winner: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

Best Editing

Nominees: F1, A House of Dynamite, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, The Perfect Neighbor, Sinners

The biggest story here was the surprise inclusion of documentary The Perfect Neighbor. It won’t take the prize that should be reserved for Battle with F1 or Sinners as remote chance spoilers.

Winner: One Battle After Another

Runner-Up: F1

Best Hair and Makeup

Nominees: 28 Years Later, Frankenstein, Sinners, The Smashing Machine, Weapons, Wicked: For Good

This is the easiest race to pick Frankenstein in.

Winner: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

Best Production Design

Nominees: The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, Sinners, Wicked: For Good

If Sinners exceeds expectations, it could take this. So could Wicked under the bone throwing scenario I posited in Costume Design. Again – bet on Frankenstein.

Winner: Frankenstein

Runner-Up: Wicked: For Good

Best Score

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, Hamnet, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sinners

This one represents another battle between Battle and Sinners though the latter should triumph here.

Winner: Sinners

Runner-Up: One Battle After Another

Best Song

Nominees: “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee; “Drive” from F1; “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good; “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters; “I Lied to You” from Sinners; “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams

The Sinners track is viable but the omnipresent “Golden” is likelier.

Winner: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters

Runner-Up: “I Lied to You” from Sinners

Best Stunt Design

Nominees: Ballerina, F1, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Warfare

This would appear to be a pretty obvious occasion to honor Mr. Cruise and his team.

Winner: Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning

Runner-Up: F1

Best Sound

Nominees: F1, Frankenstein, One Battle After Another, Sinners, Sirât, Warfare

I’m going with a slight upset. F1 is likely the smart play, but I’m saying CCA will give another race to Sinners.

Winner: Sinners

Runner-Up: F1

Best Visual Effects

Nominees: Avatar: Fire and Ash, F1, Frankenstein, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, Sinners, Superman

This is Avatar‘s sole nom. It still shouldn’t have any problem winning.

Winner: Avatar: Fire and Ash

Runner-Up: Frankenstein

That means I’m projecting that these movies will generate these numbers of wins:

6 Wins

One Battle After Another

5 Wins

Sinners

3 Wins

Frankenstein

2 Wins

KPop Demon Hunters

1 Win

Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Marty Supreme, Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning, The Naked Gun, Weapons

Look for a recap of the ceremony with my thoughts and results on how I performed!

January 2-4 Box Office Predictions

We have no major wide releases to start off the year as holiday holdovers will rule the charts. That should start with Avatar: Fire and Ash for a third consecutive weekend in 1st position. The jockeying for chart placement after that could be interesting.

Seasonal leftovers often see minimal declines during the Christmas corridor and there’s no reason to think that won’t be the case this time around. Some dips should be less severe than others. Anaconda, for example, received a meh B Cinemascore grade. Percentage wise, I suspect it will fall further in its sophomore outing than Marty Supreme (B+ CS) or Song Sung Blue (which received an A grade).

Adult audiences might be keeping up with Supreme and Blue as well as The Housemaid while parents and their kiddos catch up (or take in repeat viewings) of Zootopia 2, David, and SpongeBob. Here’s how I see the top 8 shaking out:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $42 million

2. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

3. Marty Supreme

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

4. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $12.5 million

5. Anaconda

Predicted Gross: $8 million

6. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants

Predicted Gross: $7.7 million

7. David

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million

8. Song Sung Blue

Predicted Gross: $6 million

Box Office Results (December 26-28)

Avatar: Fire and Ash scorched the Yuletide box office with a mere 29% decline for $63 million in its sophomore weekend. That just tops my $61.8 million prediction as James Cameron’s third franchise entry climbed to $216 million.

Where I went wrong in my Christmas projections was with animated features. I didn’t give Zootopia 2 enough credit in its fifth go-round as it was second and increased its family audience by 34% to $19.8 million compared to my $13.8 million call. The Disney juggernaut’s haul is $321 million.

Of the three holiday newcomers, I was correct in projecting that Marty Supreme would earn the most in third. Timothée Chalamet had his third holiday hit in a row as the period sports drama made $17.7 million over the traditional Friday to Sunday frame with $27.3 million since Thursday. That’s right in line with my respective estimates of $18.2 million and $27.6 million. It looks like a bright road ahead for the Oscar hopeful.

The Housemaid held sturdy in weekend #2 with $15.3 million. I went with a tad more at $17.3 million as the thriller is up to $46 million.

Meta comedy Anaconda with Paul Rudd and Jack Black rounded out the top five with $14.5 million and $23.5 million when counting Christmas Day. I was close with predictions of $14.2 million and $20.5 million. As mentioned above, its future is a bit murkier.

Continuing the theme of animated misses on my part, Biblical tale David dropped more than I figured with $12.5 million in sixth. I said $19.5 million though the Angel Studios release is doing just fine with $49 million in two weeks.

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants was seventh with $11.1 million, shy of my $14.6 million forecast. The two-week tally is $38 million.

Finally, Song Sung Blue with Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson opened in eighth with $7 million with $11.4 million including Thursday grosses. That’s below my $9.6 million and $13.7 million predictions as it hopes word-of-mouth keeps it afloat for a few weeks.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Belén

Dolores Fonzi directs, cowrites, and stars in the true life Argentinian legal drama Belén which premiered in its native country earlier this fall. An Amazon Prime bow is planned stateside in the near future. The supporting cast includes Camila Pláate, Laura Paredes, Julieta Cardinali, and César Troncoso.

Selected as Argentina’s hopeful for Best International Feature Film, it is among the six contenders for Foreign Language Film at the Critics Choice Awards (a bit of a surprise nominee). It will attempt to become the nation’s fifth Oscar nominee of the 21st century behind 2001’s Son of the Bride, 2009’s The Secret in Their Eyes (which won), Wild Tales from 2014, and 2022’s Argentina, 1985.

The 94% Rotten Tomatoes rating is encouraging, but the 70 Metacritic is more telling. Belén would need to leap some serious competitors that could lock down nods beyond IFF including Sentimental Value, It Was Just an Accident, The Secret Agent, No Other Choice, and Sirât. That could be a tall order, but this category has had unexpected inclusions before. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Mistress Dispeller

Mistress Dispeller premiered at the Venice Film Festival all the way back in September 2024, but was released stateside in October of this year. From filmmaker Elizabeth Lo, the documentary focuses on a title character hired to break up a Chinese woman’s husband’s extramarital affair.

Among the 15 shortlisted docs in contention for the Academy Awards, Dispeller is one of the genre titles not in the politically charged space. Perhaps there’s a lane for one or two of them to make the cut. Reviews are solid with 95% on Rotten Tomatoes and 81 on Metacritic. If it gets into the quintet, it would be a surprise though the doc voters can be volatile. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Coexistence, My Ass!

Coexistence, My Ass is one of the 15 shortlisted documentaries for the 98th Academy Awards as it tries to make the quintet after premiering at Sundance nearly a year ago. From filmmaker Amber Fares, it focuses on Israeli comedian and activist Noam Shuster-Eliassi’s one-woman show.

With 92% on Rotten Tomatoes, Coexistence must coexist with numerous politically themed docs in the running and some are higher profile including 2000 Meters to Andrivka, My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow, and Apocalypse in the Tropics. The voting branch for this genre is unpredictable and any of the 15 contenders could get in. However, predicting this one in your projected five would be an upset selection. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Holding Liat

Back in February, Holding Liat won the best documentary prize at the Berlin Film Festival. Nearly a year later, it is slated for U.S. release in January and is one of the 15 shortlisted contenders for best of in its genre at the 98th Academy Awards. From filmmaker Brandon Kramer with Darren Aronofsky as a producer, Liat refers to a woman kidnapped during the October 7th attacks in Gaza.

Based on 13 reviews, the pic stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. Liat will try to make the final five in a category filled with politically themed subject matter including 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Cover-Up, Cutting Through Rocks, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, and My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow. I’ve yet to list this in my top 10 possibilities, but that could change when I update my predictions by the end of the year. It could make the cut though some of the other hopefuls seem to have a higher profile. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Plague

When the Critics Choice branch revealed a number of shortlisted contenders for the first time back in November, writer/director Charlie Polinger’s The Plague was a surprise mention in Casting and Ensemble, Cinematography, and Score. The psychological drama that premiered at Cannes stars Everett Blunck, Kayo Martin, Kenny Rasmussen, and Joel Edgerton. It was released in limited fashion on Christmas Eve with a wide bow slated for January 2nd. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 100% with Metacritic at 69.

The Plague did not end up being a final nominee in any of those 3 CCA categories though it landed a nom for Blunck in Best Young Actor/Actress. His costar Edgerton is a possibility to receive his first acting nod, but it would be in lead for Train Dreams. Any hopes for The Plague to play at the Academy Awards have probably left the station as it seems IFC isn’t mounting much of a campaign. It also didn’t make the Cinematography or Score shortlists for the big dance. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

December 26-28 Box Office Predictions

Three Christmas offerings look to brighten up the box office as 2025 draws to a close. We have meta comedy Anaconda with Paul Rudd and Jack Black, the nationwide expansion of Timothée Chalamet’s Oscar contender Marty Supreme, and musical dramedy Song Sung Blue starring Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:

Anaconda Box Office Prediction
Marty Supreme Box Office Prediction
Song Sung Blue Box Office Prediction

Let’s start with those newcomers in a complicated weekend to project. After a sizzling per theater average in limited release, Marty Supreme could be ready for an impressive expansion. I’ve got it leading the debuting trio with a three-day in the high teens and mid 20s when counting Thursday.

I have Anaconda hitting low teens Friday to Sunday with just over $20 million for the four-day. That would put it in sixth. It is important to remember that holiday holdovers are likely to experience smallish declines since we are in the Christmas corridor.

Song Song Blue could get to double digits over the traditional weekend though I have it barely under for an 8th place start. Word-of-mouth should carry it forward into January as it’s said to be a crowdpleaser.

There’s little doubt that Avatar: Fire and Ash will repeat in first. The big question is what the sophomore frame percentage decline will look like after it opened on the lower end of expectations (more on that below). I’m thinking it decreases about 30%.

Three features in their second go-rounds (David, The Housemaid, The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants) should all see meager eases as audiences catch up on the Yuletide products. Here’s how I envision the top 8 shaking out and please note projection for holdovers are for Friday to Sunday:

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Predicted Gross: $61.8 million

2. David

Predicted Gross: $19.5 million

3. Marty Supreme

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $27.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)

4. The Housemaid

Predicted Gross: $17.3 million

5. The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants

Predicted Gross: $14.6 million

6. Anaconda

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $20.5 million (Thursday to Sunday)

7. Zootopia 2

Predicted Gross: $13.8 million

8. Song Sung Blue

Predicted Gross: $9.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.7 million (Thursday to Sunday)

Box Office Results (December 19-21)

James Cameron’s third voyage to Pandora had no trouble ruling the charts, but it couldn’t match my forecast. Avatar: Fire and Ash earned $89.1 million compared to my $98 million take. That’s far less than the $134 million that 2022 predecessor The Way of Water made out of the gate. To be fair, Water had far less competition though this is still an unremarkable start. Let’s see how it plays throughout the season.

Biblical animated tale David from Angel Studios took flight with $22 million, just ahead of my $20.8 million. That’s actually the highest opening for the studio (surpassing Sound of Freedom) and it should fill multiplex pews this coming weekend.

The Housemaid, based on a bestseller and starring Sydney Sweeney and Amanda Seyfried, checked in with $19 million. That’s a tad less than my $21.9 million call as a sizable female crowd turned out.

The SpongeBob Movie: Search for SquarePants underwhelmed compared to other franchise entries with $15.6 million (I said $17.1 million). Family audiences could still make it a priority with kiddos out of school over Christmas.

Finally, Zootopia 2 rounded out the top five with $14.8 million, in line with my $14.3 million prediction. The four-week tally is $283 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Song Sung Blue Box Office Prediction

In my previous box office prediction for Marty Supreme (opening wide on Christmas), I wrote that it is likely to play better on the coasts than everywhere in the middle. The opposite could be true for Song Sung Blue which also opens on the holiday. The musical drama from Craig Brewer stars Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson in the true life tale of Neil Diamond tribute act Lightning & Thunder. Ella Anderson, King Princess, Michael Imperioli, Mustafa Shakir, Fisher Stevens, and Jim Belushi are among the supporting players.

Reviews are mixed with 77% on Rotten Tomatoes and 55 on Metacritic. That said, plenty of the write-ups indicate this could be a crowdpleaser. Blue seeks to bring in an older audience during the Yuletide season. That’s likely to happen, but it may play over several weeks and not immediately while word-of-mouth builds.

I’ll project it manages just shy of $10 million over the traditional Friday-Sunday portion of the weekend with low teens when counting Christmas.

Song Sung Blue opening weekend prediction: $9.6 million (Friday to Sunday); $13.7 million (Thursday to Sunday)

For my Anaconda prediction, click here:

Anaconda Box Office Prediction

For my Marty Supreme prediction, click here:

Marty Supreme Box Office Prediction

Marty Supreme Box Office Prediction

With plenty of Oscar buzz and a leading man who’s been on a hot streak, Marty Supreme is looking to set the table for a strong start this Christmas. Director Josh Safdie goes solo like his brother did earlier this year with The Smashing Machine, but this time the awards buzz stayed intact. Timothée Chalamet headlines the 1950s set sports dramedy. The eclectic supporting cast includes Gwyneth Paltrow, Odessa A’Zion, Kevin O’Leary, Tyler Okonma, Abel Ferrera, and Fran Drescher.

Supreme is expected to make a splash in limited release the weekend before its December 25th wide bow. It certainly could and most likely will play better on the coasts. However, strong reviews (94 RT, 91 Metacritic) and Chalamet’s presence might propel the assumed Best Picture nominee to solid stateside earnings.

I would expect this to reach mid teens over the traditional Friday to Sunday (Dec 26-28) with mid 20s million when counting the holiday.

Marty Supreme opening weekend prediction: $18.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $27.6 million (Thursday to Sunday)

For my Anaconda prediction, click here:

Anaconda Box Office Prediction

For my Song Sung Blue prediction, click here:

Song Sung Blue Box Office Prediction