Month: October 2025

Roofman Box Office Prediction

Channing Tatum plays a real life robber using unconventional break-in methods in the dramedy Roofman. The Paramount release is out October 10th with Derek Cianfrance (Blue Valentine, The Place Beyond the Pines) directing. Kirsten Dunst costars with a supporting cast including Ben Mendelsohn, LaKeith Stanfield, Juno Temple, Melonie Diaz, Uzo Abuba, Lily Collias, Jimmy O. Yang and Peter Dinklage.

After premiering at the Toronto Film Festival earlier this month, reviews were mostly complimentary with 82% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 65 Metacritic. However, the buzz wasn’t strong enough to get in the awards conversation.

Roofman will rely solely on Tatum’s drawing power, but plenty of viewers may wait until streaming options are available. The ceiling for this could be $10 million (which would be an admirable result). I think mid single digits is where it lands.

Roofman opening weekend prediction: $5.8 million

For my Tron: Ares prediction, click here:

Tron: Ares Box Office Prediction

For my Kiss of the Spider Woman prediction, click here:

Kiss of the Spider Woman Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions – Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5

Raoul Peck, whose acclaimed 2016 feature I Am Not Your Negro was nominated for Best Documentary Feature, could find himself in contention nine years later with Orwell: 2 + 2 = 5. Focused on the life of George Orwell while paralleling current events, Damian Lewis narrates as the 1984 writer.

The Neon distributed effort is out today with 85% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 74 Metacritic. The reaction is not as rapturous as Peck’s predecessor. However, with the right push (something Neon is capable of), don’t be surprised if this makes the shortlist of docs later this year. It it does, it has a shot to make the quintet though winning is highly improbable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Shell

Republic Pictures has opened Shell a year plus after it premiered at 2024’s Toronto Film Festival. From Max Minghella (making his second directorial feature after being known more for acting), the satire with sci-fi and horror elements stars Elisabeth Moss and Kate Hudson with Kaia Gerber and Elizabeth Berkley providing support.

When Shell received the festival treatment, it did so at the same time as Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance. Many reviews have compared the films to each other thematically. The big difference? Critical reaction to Shell isn’t nearly as strong with 56% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 64 Metacritic.

Fargeat’s movie garnered five Academy noms including Best Picture and was an unexpected box office success. Shell is receiving a limited theatrical release but it’s basically straight to VOD. It will not generate the awards chatter that greeted The Substance. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Tron: Ares Box Office Prediction

Arriving 15 years after a sequel that followed the original by 28 years, Tron: Ares hits theaters October 10th. Disney’s sci-fi action threequel has Joachim Rønning taking over directorial duties from Joseph Kosinski, who made 2010’s Tron: Legacy before helming Top Gun: Maverick and F1. Jared Leto, Greta Lee, Evan Peters, Jodie Turner-Smith, Hasan Minhaj, Arturo Castro, Gillian Anderson and Jeff Bridges (reprising his role from the first two) star.

The franchise certainly has its followers though it’s fair to wonder if younger viewers will turn out. They might not be as familiar with the source material from 2010 (let alone 1982). Legacy performed decently with a $44 million opening and $172 eventual domestic gross. It made just under $400 million worldwide. Ares would be fortunate to replicate that and projections have it starting in the same range (not adjusted for inflation). I’ll say this manages just under that figure.

Tron: Ares opening weekend prediction: $42.6 million

For my Roofman prediction, click here:

Roofman Box Office Prediction

For my Kiss of the Spider Woman prediction, click here:

Kiss of the Spider Woman Box Office Prediction