Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and continues today with Supporting Actress. If you missed my write-up on Supporting Actor, you can find it here:
I published my first preview of the Supporting Actress field on April 6th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Let’s dispense with a couple of those names. Angelina LookingGlass’s heralded work in The Rivals of Amziah King has not been scheduled for 2025. At this point, I’m assuming it will come out in 2026.
After the Hunt has lost its awards luster after a poor commercial and critical reaction. While her costar Julia Roberts may have a long shot chance at making the Actress cut, I don’t see the same for Edebiri.
The other three names are very much viable. Ariana Grande was nominated last year as Glinda the Good Witch and was probably runner-up to Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez). While For Good has yet to screen, it stands to reason that she could make a return to the lineup. I’ve had her ranked first the whole year and we’ll see if that remains when word-of-mouth comes in.
Teyana Taylor’s performance dominates the first third of One Battle After Another (arguably the BP frontrunner). That should be enough for her to be the most likely Supporting Actor nominee in the film and we’ll get to Regina Hall shortly.
Gwyneth Paltrow is not a guaranteed competitor like her costar Timothée Chalamet is in lead actor. However, her work in Marty Supreme is definitely viable in this unformed race. The same could be said for her costar Odessa A’Zion though I’d put Paltrow ahead.
My 10 other possibilities that I listed back in April are:
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
America Ferrera, The Lost Bus
Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
Greta Lee, Late Fame
Nia Long, Michael
Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
Emily Watson, Hamnet
Let’s start with Regina Hall. When it was announced that Chase Infiniti would compete in lead Actress for Battle, it opened the door for Hall. I maintain that she’s behind her costar Taylor. I currently have her on the outside looking in, but wouldn’t be surprised if she hears her name called. In the 21st century, we’ve seen double nominees in this category 10 out of 25 times. The last example was 2022 when Jamie Lee Curtis won for Everything Everywhere All at Once while her cast mate Stephanie Hsu was also up. The other times were as follows:
2000: Frances McDormand and Kate Hudson, Almost Famous
2001: Helen Mirren and Maggie Smith, Gosford Park
2002: Catherine Zeta-Jones (winner) and Queen Latifah, Chicago
2006: Adriana Barraza and Rinko Kikuchi, Babel
2008: Amy Adams and Viola Davis, Doubt
2009: Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
2010: Melissa Leo (winner) and Amy Adams, The Fighter
2011: Octavia Spencer (winner) and Jessica Chastain, The Help
2018: Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz, The Favourite
Another possibility of two nominees from the same pictures lies with Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value) and her costar Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. The former seems marginally more likely but Lilleass is absolutely a threat to make the quintet.
A third possibility of two actresses from one feature is Wunmi Mosaku and Hailee Steinfeld from Sinners. That’s a more remote possibility and the film would really have to over perform for either to get in.
Back to those 10 other possibilities. Michael was pushed to 2026 so there goes Nia Long. Laura Dern, America Ferrera, Greta Lee and Emily Watson are all long shots at best after their movies screened. For Dern and Watson, they could see some of their costars nominated.
Emily Blunt could factor in if she manages SAG or Critics Choice or a Globe nod. Yet The Smashing Machine was a major box office flop and that doesn’t help. The same logic applies to Jennifer Lopez for Kiss of the Spider Woman.
Glenn Close is arguably considered the best thespian who hasn’t won an Oscar despite eight attempts. That could help her cause in Rian Johnon’s latest murder mystery, but none of the actors from Knives Out and Glass Onion made it despite respective buzz for Ana de Armas and Janelle Monae.
One name not on my radar in April was Amy Madigan in Weapons. The summer sleeper gave the veteran actress an unforgettably creepy role that should inspire many a Halloween costume next week. I’m starting to really think she could find herself in the quintet.
So there you have it, readers! I would say Grande, Taylor, Fanning, Lilleass, Madigan, Paltrow and Hall are the seven likeliest contestants with potential surprises including Close, Lopez, Blunt and Mosaku. I will zone in on Best Actor in the next write-up!
A trio of new releases are vying for the #1 spot this weekend as musical biopic Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, romantic drama Regretting You and anime fantasy Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc are unveiled. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the trio here:
Potential over or under performances by the newbies make this an uncertain weekend. As mentioned, any of them could place 1st or Black Phone 2 could repeat atop the charts. I’m giving the slight edge to Springsteen with Jeremy Allen White as The Boss though my mid teens estimate means it would fall short of the eventual grosses of recent genre fare like Bohemian Rhapsody, Elvis and A Complete Unknown.
Regretting You has a shot of exceeding expectations since it’s based on source material from Colleen Hoover. The adaptation of her novel It Endswith Us was a smash last year. Yet my low teens take puts it in second as this doesn’t seem to have the buzz of the aforementioned.
As for Chainsaw, anime features (especially the most recent Demon Slayer) have been hot commodities, but this isn’t expected to reach anywhere that pic’s $70 million start. I’m going low double digits though it could surprise.
After a stellar start, Black Phone 2 should lose around its opening weekend audience with Tron: Ares shedding more than that and rounding out the top five.
Here’s how it see it shaking out:
1. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Predicted Gross: $16.1 million
2. Regretting You
Predicted Gross: $14 million
3. Black Phone 2
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
4. Chainsaw Man: The Movie – Reze Arc
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
5. Tron: Ares
Predicted Gross: $5 million
Box Office Results (October 17-19)
Black Phone 2 rang up decent business and outdid its 2022 predecessor with $27.3 million. That managed to top my $25.5 million prediction.
Tron: Ares fell 67% for $11.1 million in second, rising slightly ahead of my $10.2 million call. The flop of a threequel stands at $54 million after two weeks and this won’t be reaching nine digits domestically.
Aziz Ansari’s comedy Good Fortune couldn’t find it despite the star power of Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves. It was third with $6.1 million, a shade below my $7.3 million estimate.
One Battle After Another was fourth with $3.8 million compared to my $4.9 million projection. The four-week total is $61 million.
Roofman took fifth with $3.7 million (I said $4.6 million) and it’s shackled with only $15 million in two weekends of play.
Finally, critically drubbed After the Hunt from Luca Guadagnino and starring Julia Roberts was ninth in wide release with a paltry $1.5 million. I was more generous at $3.5 million.
Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It begins with Supporting Actor.
I published my first preview of the Supporting Actor field on April 5th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:
Colman Domingo, Michael
Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Let’s dispense with some of those names. Domingo’s work as the Jackson family patriarch in Michael won’t be seen until 2026 after the studio delayed it.
The Life of Chuck, despite winning the coveted audience prize at 2024’s Toronto Film Festival, never picked up steam as a contender when it opened this summer. Hamill would desperately need a Globe or SAG or Critics Choice nom to have any shot at the big dance. I don’t see it happening.
Then there’s Garfield. In April, I envisioned Luca Guadagnino’s Hunt as a surefire player in several races. Yet it’s become a critical and commercial disappointment and I suspect it could be completely blanked come nomination morning.
As for the 10 other possibilities, those names:
Joe Alwyn, Hamnet
Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
Brendan Fraser, Pressure
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
LaKeith Stanfield, Die, My Love
Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Tyler, the Creator, Marty Supreme
Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
Jeffrey Wright, Highest 2 Lowest
Brendan Fraser’s work as Dwight Eisenhower in the war drama Pressure is looking like a 2026 release. When it comes to Alwyn in Hamnet, I was assuming that Paul Mescal’s performance in that pic was going to be a lead actor submission. It has just recently been confirmed that Mescal will go supporting and it is he and not Alwyn who’s viable.
Denzel Washington is definitely a lead contender for Lowest and we’ll address his chances in that post. As for Cooper, Stanfield, Tyler, the Creator, and Wright – that quartet of performances did not garner awards buzz upon their unveilings.
So let’s talk about who is viable, shall we? In my estimation, there are three hopefuls whose nominations seem assured or darn close to it.
One Battle After Another will receive a BP nod and it has a real chance of winning. Two-time winner in lead Actor Sean Penn should be up for his villainous turn, marking his seventh overall at bat and first in the supporting field. It’s actually been 17 years since his last nom when he took gold for Milk.
Stellan Skarsgård is the name in my original top five that I’m still confident remains. Sentimental Value, while possibly losing a little luster in recent weeks, should make the BP cut and his work is arguably the most heralded.
The third performer I’m convinced of is Paul Mescal. Like Battle and Value, Hamnet is looking solid in BP. His costar Jessie Buckley is the frontrunner in Actress and he should come along for the ride.
Then it gets complicated. Adam Sandler has been in my #4 spot for a few weeks. The SNL alum has not seen his name called by the Academy despite chatter for Punch-Drunk Love and especially Uncut Gems. This offers a legit opportunity for voters to honor him. However, Sandler’s fortunes could be tied to whether Jay Kelly makes BP and that’s very much in question. As for now, I have him in but it’s far from assured.
Jeremy Strong was up last year in this category for The Apprentice. He could make it two years in a row as The Boss’s longtime manager Jon Landau in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere. I’m less convinced the biopic makes BP than any of the other pictures above. He’s still a strong (no pun intended) possibility to join his costar Jeremy Allen White on the red carpet.
So, at the moment, my five would consist of Penn, Skarsgård, Mescal, Sandler and Strong (in that order). Who could change that dynamic?
Benicio del Toro could. 25 years years after he emerged victorious in Supporting Actor for Traffic, his comic relief as the helpful sensei in One Battle After Another is quite memorable. If the movie is indeed the BP force it might be, the coattails could leave room for him. The Academy has had a habit of nominating two performances from the same film here. From 2017 to 2022, it happened at every ceremony but one:
2017 – Sam Rockwell and Woody Harrelson from Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Rockwell won)
2019 – Al Pacino and Joe Pesci from The Irishman
2020 – Daniel Kaluuya and LaKeith Stanfield from Judas and the Black Messiah (Kaluuya won)
2021 – Jesse Plemons and Kodi Smit-McPhee from The Power of the Dog
2022 – Brendan Gleeson and Barry Keoghan from The Banshees of Inisherin
I came very close to putting him in over Strong in my update a week ago.
In 2020, Delroy Lindo was expected to be up for Spike Lee’s Da 5 Bloods but he was snubbed. Members could give him his first nom for Sinners, which is another likely BP nominee. I like his chances better than costars Miles Caton or Jack O’Connell though they’ve been mentioned too.
Ethan Hawke’s lead work in Blue Moon is being predicted by more prognosticators recently and that includes me. He could bring costar Andrew Scott along with him.
If Frankenstein makes BP, it increases the chances that Jacob Elordi’s portrayal of The Monster is alive in the minds of those filling out ballots.
A couple of other possibilities to address. While Josh O’Connor grew raves at screenings for the upcoming Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, I’m not buying him being the franchise’s first acting nominee. Rental Family doesn’t appear to be a threat in BP and that hurts Akira Emoto’s inclusion. The mixed reaction to Anemone might leave Daniel Day-Lewis out of Best Actor. That makes the chances of Sean Bean making the quintet remote at best.
The only unseen performance worth mentioning in my view is Jonathan Bailey in Wicked: For Good. He managed a SAG nod as Fiyero in part 1 last year. If part 2 is generally perceived as equal to what preceded it, the cast could be rewarded beyond Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande.
So there you have it, readers! I would say Penn, Skargård and Mescal are in with Sandler, Strong, del Toro, Lindo, Scott, Elorodi and Bailey battling for the remaining two slots. Let’s see if and how that changes as the weeks roll along. My in-depth look at Supporting Actress is up next!
Based on a 2000 novel from Amélie Nothomb, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain was first seen at the Cannes Film Festival. The animated coming-of-age tale has already been released in its native France and is likely to see stateside distribution by year’s end. Maïlys Vallade and Liane-Cho Han co-direct with a voice cast including Loïse Charpentier, Victoria Grosbois and Yumi Fujimori.
In a Best Animated Feature race that isn’t exactly overflowing with possibilities, I’ve had Amélie making the cut in recent weeks via the 4th or 5th slot. The reviews are there with 94% on Rotten Tomatoes. I don’t think it’s a threat to win and that’s partly due to the cultural juggernaut that is KPop Demon Hunters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Sony Pictures and Crunchyroll look for Chainsaw Man – The Move: Reze Arc to cut impressive grosses when it debuts October 24th. The anime fantasy from Japan serves as a sequel to the first season of the manga TV show from Tatsuki Fujimoto. Tatsuya Yoshihara directs.
In September, the film has performed well in its home country. It managed to knock out Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle after nine weeks atop the charts. That said, it made about $8 million in U.S. dollars compared to Castle‘s start of $37 million in comparable currency.
That same story should play out domestically. While Castle decimated the all-time North American anime opening at $70 million, Chainsaw might manage low double digits or low teens.
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc opening weekend prediction: $12.8 million
For my Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere prediction, click here:
The Fault in Our Stars director Josh Boone is back in the romantic drama genre with Regretting You on October 24th. Adapting Colleen Hoover’s 2019 novel, the Paramount release stars Allison Williams, Mckenna Grace, Dave Franco, Mason Thames, Willa Fitzgerald, Scott Eastwood, and Clancy Brown.
The studio is hoping that Hoover’s readers come out in droves like they did last year with It Ends with Us. That Blake Lively and Justin Baldoni team-up (and it’s safe to say the last one) began with a sizzling $50 million. Regretting isn’t expected to get anywhere near that. If this reached $20 million out of the gate, that would be a massive win.
Tracking has it in the low to mid teens and that sounds right.
Regretting You opening weekend prediction: $14 million
For my Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere prediction, click here:
20th Century Studios hopes that Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere has a glorious first three days at the box office when it drops October 24th. Centered around the making of his 1982 album Nebraska, Jeremy Allen White plays the title character with Jeremy Strong as longtime manager Jon Landau. Scott Cooper directs the musical bio with a supporting cast including Paul Walter Hauser, Stephen Graham, Odessa Young, Gaby Hoffman, Marc Maron and David Krumholtz.
Nowhere was first seen at the Telluride Film Festival where it managed to generate awards chatter, especially for White (who’s won multiple honors for his TV work on The Bear). Overall reviews were somewhat tempered in their praise with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 65 Metacritic.
Last year, A Complete Unknown (from the 20th Century umbrella under Searchlight) struck a chord with viewers to tune of $75 million. That biopic of Bob Dylan with Timothée Chalamet seemed to have more buzz prior to its release. Some estimates have Nowhere reaching $20-25 million, but I’m thinking mid teens is where its ends up.
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere opening weekend prediction: $16.1 million
Horror sequel Black Phone 2 should easily receive the most multiplex views this weekend as Aziz Ansari’s directorial debut Good Fortune with Seth Rogen and Keanu Reeves hopes to earn its title. We also have the expansion of Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt starring Julia Roberts. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be accessed here:
My projection for Phone gives it a couple million more than the 2022 original and grabbing a gross in the mid 20s range. I will note that it has the potential to over perform given that the genre often does. Hopefully something can wake up this sleepy October box office.
The runner-up position could certainly be held by Good Fortune if it manages $10 million plus. However, I’m going under that figure and putting it in third.
As for Hunt, it is slated for around 1200 venues and a lower to mid single digits figure might leave it just outside the top five.
Tron: Ares got off to an unimpressive start (more on that below) and I suspect a sophomore weekend plummet around 70% could be in store. Holdovers One Battle After Another and Roofman may round out the high 5 and here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Black Phone 2
Predicted Gross: $25.5 million
2. Tron: Ares
Predicted Gross: $10.2 million
3. Good Fortune
Predicted Gross: $7.3 million
4. One Battle After Another
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
5. Roofman
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
6. After the Hunt
Predicted Gross: $3.5 million
Box Office Results (October 10-12)
Disney had no trouble getting Tron: Ares to first place, but the Mouse House hardly has bragging rights. The third flick in the franchise that began in 1982 stumbled with $33.2 million compared to my $42.6 million call. That’s a hugely disappointing result considering the reported $180 million budget. Ares fell $10 million under the $43 million that predecessor Tron: Legacy managed 15 years ago and that’s not even adjusted for inflation.
Roofman with Channing Tatum was runner-up with $8.1 million as the dramedy opened in line with general expectations and over my $5.8 million projection. It is still an underwhelming number though it’ll hope to leg out respectably during the month.
One Battle After Another was third with $6.8 million, in line with my $6.4 million prediction. The Oscar hopeful has taken in $54 million after three weeks.
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was fourth and I incorrectly had it outside the top five. The $3.4 million gross gave it $26 million in three weeks of play.
The Conjuring: Last Rites rounded out the top five at $3.1 million. My guesstimate? $3.1 million! The horror sequel has amassed $172 million in five weeks.
I didn’t do an official prediction for the inspirational biographical drama Soul on Fire. I did speculate it could make around $3 million. It took in $2.8 million for sixth.
The Smashing Machine had a free fall in 8th with $1.7 million. This represents a 69% tumble for the former awards hopeful. I was more generous at $2.6 million and its ten-day tally is a mere $9 million.
Finally, Kiss of the Spider Woman with Jennifer Lopez premiered in lowly 12th place. The $891k figure is well under my $2.2 million take. Like Machine, the bad earnings don’t bode well for any Oscar attention.
The busy Luca Guadagnino (who helmed two 2024 releases with Challengers and Queer) is back in multiplexes with After the Hunt. The thriller features Julia Roberts headlining alongside Ayo Edebiri, Andrew Garfield, Michael Stuhlbarg and Chloë Sevigny. An Amazon MGM production, it was unveiled in six venues last weekend with the wide release on October 17th.
Hunt debuted at the Venice Film Festival in late August. Considered by many (including me) to be a major awards player, the Italian screening essentially disabused that notion. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 44% with Metacritic at 51.
Despite its middling critical reaction, it performed impressively in limited fashion with a $26k+ per screen average. However, the coastal performance likely won’t correlate to everything in between. Slated to expand to approximately 1200 screens, lower to mid single digits sounds right.
After the Hunt wide opening weekend prediction: $3.5 million
The New York Film Festival has wrapped up with Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On? debuting prior to its December release. Being that his previous two directorial efforts (A Star Is Born, Maestro) were up for BP, Thing was a curious piece to the emerging awards puzzle. The verdict? While some reviews were strong, I don’t think it’s enough to factor into the Oscar conversation with the possible exception of Original Screenplay. You won’t find Will Arnett, Laura Dern or Cooper in my acting possibilities. I do think the film could get attention at the Globes if it’s placed in Musical/Comedy.
This is the time of year where category placements are becoming clearer. Not surprisingly, Paul Mescal is confirmed as a Supporting Actor hopeful for Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet.
More surprisingly, it was revealed that Chase Infiniti will contend for lead Actress in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. I had her slotted in Supporting Actress and getting a nomination in that race last week. This upends the dynamic. I absolutely think she could get in the lead derby, but I went back and forth between her, Emma Stone (Bugonia) and Amanda Seyfried (The Testament of Ann Lee) with only two of them making the cut and Seyfried coming out on the short end. The Infiniti announcement also means Regina Hall could join her costar Teyana Taylor in supporting. For now I have Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass joining her Sentimental Value costar Elle Fanning in that group of five. Under a best case scenario, Battle could see six of its performers (Leonardo DiCaprio, Infiniti, Taylor, Hall, Sean Penn, Benicio del Toro) up for gold. That would set an Academy record for thespians competing. It might be a long shot, but it is a possibility.
While Another’s chances are plenty, the continued poor box office performance of The Smashing Machine (with around a 70% plummet in weekend #2) confirms my feeling that Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt’s campaigns are on life support at best. They both drop from my 10 possibilities.
Perhaps the biggest story of the week was New York’s “surprise” screening of Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme prior to its December release. Unlike Bradley Cooper’s third picture, Safdie’s inaugural behind the camera production solidified its status as a top five BP contender. Timothée Chalamet, it turns out, appears to deserve the #1 ranking I’ve had him with all along in Best Actor. Much like Battle, Supporting Actress is more confusing. While Gwyneth Paltrow and Odessa A’Zion could see their names called among the quintet (with the former seemingly more realistic), both are far from automatic. I am elevating Safdie back in the directorial five. That’s at the expense of Joachim Trier (Sentimental Value).
In Best Actor, I’m putting Ethan Hawke (Blue Moon) in the high five for the first time with Michael B. Jordan (Sinners) now on the outside looking in.
And in BP, Bugonia is back in and clinging to the 10 spot with No Other Choice dropping. A note that I came very close to putting Frankenstein in.
You can read all the movement below and that includes Sean Penn rising to 1st in Supporting Actor after Stellan Skarsgård has held that position for many weeks.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (E)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 9) (E)
10. Bugonia (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+1)
12. No Other Choice (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (E)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Is This Thing On?
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jafar Pahani, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 8) (E)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked – moved from Supporting Actress)
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 8) (E)
9. Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (E)
8. Odessa A’Zion, Marty Supreme (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (moved to lead Actress)
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Akira Emoto, Rental Family
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Is This Thing On? (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Blue Moon (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sorry, Baby (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The Secret Agent (PR: 9) (E)
10. Weapons (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Rental Family
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Train Dreams (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Song Sung Blue (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Secret Agent (PR: 4) (+1)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sirât (PR: 6) (-1)
8. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Love That Remains (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Scarlet (PR: 6) (-1)
8. In Your Dreams (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)
4. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Seeds (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Alabama Solution (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Librarians (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Cutting Through Rocks
The Eyes of Ghana
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Rental Family
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Train Dreams (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Snow White
Hedda
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. F1 (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hamnet (PR: 9) (+2)
8. No Other Choice (PR: 6) (-2)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Sentimental Value (PR: 10) (E)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 4) (E)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Weapons (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 7) (-3)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Sentimental Value
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 2) (E)
3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-2)
9. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 10) (+1)
10. “Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blue Moon (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kiss of the Spider Woman
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 4) (+1)
4. F1 (PR: 3) (-1)
5. One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Warfare (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (E)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (E)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (E)
3. Superman (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 6) (E)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: 9) (E)
10. Mickey 17 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lost Bus
And that equates to these films nabbing these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good
11 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
Marty Supreme
9 Nominations
Hamnet
7 Nominations
Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value
4 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Frankenstein, It Was Just an Accident
3 Nominations
Bugonia
2 Nominations
F1, KPop Demon Hunters, No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Apocalypse in the Tropics, Arco, Blue Moon, Cover-Up, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, Zootopia 2
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