Month: October 2025

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Picture Race (October Edition)

As October draws to a close, it’s time for a deep dive into the Best Picture race with two months left in the release calendar. I’ve done the same with the directing competition and the four acting derbies. If you missed those write-ups over the past few days, you can access them here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Director Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the Best Picture field on April 17th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the 10 BP hopefuls along with 15 other possibilities . At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

After the Hunt

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Hamnet

Jay Kelly

The Life of Chuck

Marty Supreme

No Other Choice

The Rivals of Amziah King

Sentimental Value

Wicked: For Good

Other Possibilities:

Alpha

Ballad of a Small Player

Bugonia

Die, My Love

F1

Frankenstein

Highest 2 Lowest

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Materialists

Michael

One Battle After Another

Sinners

The Smashing Machine

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

The Testament of Ann Lee

Let’s dispense with the movies that are no longe viable. The Rivals of Amziah King and Michael will be 2026 releases. The following titles did not get solid enough reviews, box office, or a combo of both to truly be threats: After the Hunt (which I initially had ranked at #1 back in the spring), The Life of Chuck, (despite winning the 2024 Audience Award at the Toronto Film Festival), Alpha, Ballad of a Small Player, Die, My Love (though Jennifer Lawrence could contend in Actress), F1 (which was a critically appreciated hit and could nab some tech nods), Highest 2 Lowest, Kiss of the Spider Woman (perhaps Jennifer Lopez can sneak in Supporting Actress), Materialists, and The Smashing Machine.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere and The Testament of Ann Lee aren’t dead in the water, but the former is a sizable box office disappointment with some less than stellar reviews and the latter is perhaps too divisive. Their leads Jeremy Allen White and Amanda Seyfried have healthier chances in the lead acting contests.

So let’s get into the 11 of the 25 aforementioned titles that do still have a decent chance and a few others worthy of mention.

The soft frontrunner appears to be Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another with its multiple acting contenders and some of the highest critical praise of the year. Even though it disappointed a bit at the box office, the Cinemascore grade of A indicates it would be a satisfactory audience choice for voters to select. Plus PTA is generally seen as overdue for Academy affection.

Its biggest competition could be Hamnet from Chloé Zhao, who picked up a directorial prize and a BP win for 2020’s Nomadland. History could repeat five years later for her heralded historical drama.

I’m also confident that Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, the vampiric financial smash from the spring, will be remembered on BP ballots even though horror flicks often have a hard time breaking through. This should be a welcome exception.

Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is a festival darling that has enough goodwill to make the BP cut.

Two upcoming releases have their review embargoes intact but have screened to encouraging word-of-mouth: Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme (where Timothée Chalamet appears to be a Best Actor favorite) and Wicked: For Good, part two to Wicked which garnered BP and other nominations last year. Both should find themselves among the ten.

That’s six pics (One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Sinners, Sentimental Value, Marty Supreme, Wicked: For Good) that I’m confident are in. Twelve others are jockeying for the four additional slots.

I’ve had Guillermo del Toro’s Frankenstein in and out of my lineup at various times. I’m becoming more convinced it could be Netflix’s best chance in BP.

An argument could easily be made that the streamer’s Jay Kelly from Noah Baumbach is their strongest horse with its Hollywood friendly storyline. Some reviews have been lukewarm, but I still am leaning toward it placing in the 10.

To close the Netflix loop, Train Dreams has its ardent admirers and I wouldn’t totally discount it. Kathryn Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite seems to be fizzling a tad due to some ambivalent audience reaction, but a rebound is not out of the question.

Avatar: Fire and Ash looks to follow in the footsteps of its two predecessors. Having it in or near the selected 10 seems like a smart move but screenings will soon tell the tale.

Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident from Neon took the Palme d’Or at Cannes and I’m increasingly confident it’ll be an international contender in its own race and BP (like Neon’s Sentimental Value).

The Secret Agent (Neon) and No Other Choice (Neon) could accomplish the same dual noms though it’s rare for more than two international submissions to get into the big dance. And not every Neon distributed foreign title can make the list… can they?

Bugonia from Yorgos Lanthimos may be a touch too oddball for BP though I’d be careful to dismiss the latest from The Favourite and Poor Things maker.

Richard Linklater’s has had an impressive year with Blue Moon and Nouvelle Vague though I’m guessing neither are real threats.

Finally, Song Sung Blue (out Christmas) is said to be a crowdpleaser and Kate Hudson is a possibility in Best Actress. A Musical/Comedy BP spot at the Globes seems more feasible than Academy love.

Keep an eye on the blog with updated rankings on BP and all other feature film races hitting shortly!

Oscar Predictions: Song Sung Blue

Focus Features may focus part of their awards campaigning on Song Sung Blue as it readies a Christmas Day release. The musical drama comes from Hustle & Flow and Dolemite Is My Name director Craig Brewer and tells the true story of a down-on-their-luck couple who form a Neil Diamond tribute band. Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson play the crooners with a supporting cast including Ella Anderson, King Princess, Michael Imperioli, Mustafa Shakir, Fisher Stevens, and Jim Belushi.

Blue played at the AFI Fest earlier this week and word-of-mouth indicates this could be a crowdpleaser with holiday box office potential. There aren’t a large volume of reviews out yet with 80% on Rotten Tomatoes and perhaps a more telling 57 on Metacritic. Best Picture is likely not in the cards.

The best and probably only chance at a nomination is Kate Hudson for lead Actress. Even some of the negative ink is singing her praises. If she makes the cut, it would come 25 years after her first and only nod in supporting for Almost Famous.

I believe it’s pretty safe to assume Jessie Buckley (Hamnet), Renate Reinsve (Sentimental Value), and Cynthia Erivo (Wicked: For Good) have secured placement in the quintet. That leaves two slots for a handful or so of contenders and Hudson could have an enticing narrative for voters in a showy role. My feeling right now is she just misses, but my thoughts could shift based on precursors. Frontrunner Buckley, by the way, is contending in another Focus distributed project and they could train their sights on securing her the victory.

The film seems poised to be a factor at the Golden Globes in the Musical/Comedy categories including Picture and Jackman, and Hudson in their lead derbies. Oscar could be a tougher sell and my Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Predator: Badlands Box Office Prediction

Predator: Badlands looks to awaken a dormant box office when it debuts November 7th. It marks the ninth overall feature in the nearly 40-year-old franchise that began with the Arnold Schwarzenegger classic. Dan Trachtenberg directs his second pic in the series after helming the 2022’s Prey and the animated Predator: Killer of Killers back in June. Both were acclaimed and they premiered via streaming on Hulu. Elle Fanning stars alongside Dimitrius Schuster-Koloamatangi and Mike Homik.

Technically AVP: Alien vs. Predator holds the record for best start among the films at $38 million back in 2004. As far as Predator titles without an iconic sparring partner, 2010’s Predators and 2018’s The Predator experienced virtually identical openings of $24.7 and $24.6 million, respectively.

Early word-of-mouth for Badlands is solid yet some fans may choose to wait for to Disney+/Hulu. It could manage to top expectations because there’s not much else out there. I also wouldn’t be surprised at all if it sees a mid 20s output similar to what we witnessed in 2010 and 2018 and that would be considered a letdown. I’ll give it slightly more.

Predator: Badlands opening weekend prediction: $27.6 million

For my Christy prediction, click here:

Christy Box Office Prediction

October 31-November 2 Box Office Predictions

The box office should be scary this weekend and not in a good way as there likely won’t be any films topping $10 million… with one potential unconventional exception.

New wide releases are the 40th anniversary re-release of Back to the Future and the expansion of Bugonia. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:

Back to the Future Box Office Prediction
Bugonia Box Office Prediction

I have Future hitting mid single digits and that’s probably going to put the Robert Zemeckis classic toward the bottom of the top five (or six). I have it neck and neck with the second frame of Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere which delivered subpar numbers.

That’s more than I’m giving the latest Yorgos Lanthimos effort starring Emma Stone. With my Bugonia estimate under $3 million, it should be outside the first half of the top 10.

Chainsaw Man: The Movie: Reze Arc exceeded expectations (more on that below) and continued a banner year for anime. However, a drop in the mid to high 60s is probably coming.

Regretting You weathered poor reviews for an opening in line with estimates and I foresee a sophomore dip in the mid 50s.

If Chainsaw and Regretting play according to my though process, that could allow Black Phone 2 to return to #1 (officially). Moviegoers might seek a fright fest this weekend and the sequel fits the bill.

So what’s with all the uncertainty about what’s actually going to be #1? KPop Demon Hunters: A Sing-Along Event is returning to theaters for Halloween weekend. The animated Netflix juggernaut first hit theaters in August for two days after its streaming start, resulting in a fantastic $19.2 million on Saturday and Sunday. This time around it’s playing all three days and I’m estimating it will generate $12 million. Here’s the catch. Netflix doesn’t officially report their numbers so it’ll be #1 with an asterisk.

Here’s how I have the top six (counting KPop) shaking out:

*1. KPop Demon Hunters: A Sing-Along Event

Predicted Gross: $12 million

2. Black Phone 2

Predicted Gross: $8 million

3. Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc

Predicted Gross: $6.4 million

4. Regretting You

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Predicted Gross: $4.8 million

6. Back to the Future

Predicted Gross: $4.6 million

Box Office Results (October 24-26)

In a surprise result, Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc was easily #1 with $18 million, eclipsing my $12.8 million estimate. It continues an impressive 2025 for Asian animated material including KPop and the record breaking Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle.

Regretting You took the runner-up spot with $13.6 million, just under my $14 million prediction. The romantic drama based on a Colleen Hoover novel was hampered by far less buzz than last year’s It Ends with Us (a fellow Hoover adaptation) in addition to poor reviews.

Black Phone 2 fell two rungs to third with $12.9 million compared to my $13.7 million call. The ten-day total is $48 million.

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere was a major disappointment in fourth with $8.8 million. I had it placing first with $16.1 million but moviegoers didn’t warm up to the musical biopic of The Boss.

Tron: Ares rounded out the top five with $4.9 million (I said $5 million) for a three-week tally of $63 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Director Race (October Edition)

Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. All four acting contests have been covered. If you missed my write-ups on them, they are linked here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the directing field on April 12th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice

Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt

Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King

Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

Other Possibilities:

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another

Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly

Edward Berger, Ballad of a Small Player

James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good

Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein

Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck

Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia

Spike Lee, Highest 2 Lowest

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

The 5 eventual nominees could be found among those 15 possibilities. However, we can be confident some won’t make it in. For Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King seems to be a 2026 release. After the Hunt was a commercial and critical disappointment and Luca Guadagnino appears to be a non-factor. The out of contention status also applies to Edward Berger, Mike Flanagan, and Spike Lee.

Let’s get into the others and other names not raised back in April. Both Josh Safdie and Chloé Zhao’s movies are probable safe bets for BP. They could certainly come along for the ride. I’m slightly more confident in Zhao contending for her second trophy after winning in 2020 for Nomadland though Safdie is definitely viable in his solo behind the camera effort.

Park Chan-wook’s fortunes should be tied to whether No Other Choice makes BP and I keep going back and forth on that. The same could be said Noah Baumbach, Jon M. Chu, Guillermo del Toro, and Yorgos Lanthimos. Their respective features Jay Kelly, Wicked: For Good (as yet unseen), Frankenstein, and Bugonia are all on the BP bubble. Same goes for the unmentioned A House of Dynamite and Kathryn Bigelow.

Even if Avatar: Fire and Ash gets into BP, I’m skeptical James Cameron is in unless the third franchise entry as universally seen as the best. We’ll know that in a few weeks.

Sentimental Value is not on the bubble. Its ticket is likely punched and that could benefit Joachim Trier for a first nomination though I don’t believe his nom is assured as the movie’s.

Who is assured? Paul Thomas Anderson. One Battle is your soft frontrunner for BP and this is a golden opportunity for the Academy to honor PTA for this and his overall body of work.

I also think Ryan Coogler (Sinners) is in for his vampire epic which is the other Warner Bros title vying for BP alongside One Battle.

A pair of foreign filmmakers could vie for a slot – Jafar Panahi (It Was Just an Accident) and Kieber Mendonça Filho (The Secret Agent). Their fortunes are also tied to BP inclusion and I feel the latter has a stronger pathway.

In conclusion, I feel safe with PTA, Coogler, and Zhao RSVP’d for the directorial dance. The other two noms could be filled by plenty of names above. My in-depth posts on the six biggest categories will conclude with Best Picture!

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actress Race (October Edition)

Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. Best Actor and the supporting fields have been covered. If you missed my write-ups on them, please find them here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the lead Actress field on April 11th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Other Possibilities:

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Olivia Colman, The Roses

Jodie Foster, A Private Life

Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night

Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love

Lucy Liu, Rosemead

Emma Mackey, Ella McCay

June Squibb, Eleanor the Great

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Tessa Thompson, Hedda

What’s pretty amazing is how viable many of these contenders still are. In fact, it wouldn’t be totally crazy for my initial quintet to still be the final quintet. I believe there’s an excellent shot that 80% of them get in. Before we get to them, let’s dispense with the other possibilities that are no longer possibilities, shall we?

Olivia Colman (The Roses) and Jodie Foster (A Private Life) have OK chances to make the cut at the Globes in lead Actress in a Musical/Comedy. However, the former Oscar winners will not be returning to that ceremony. I’d say the same for June Squibb as Eleanor the Great drew mixed notices from critics and was a non-factor at the box office. Then there’s Jessica Lange. It seems like Long Day’s Journey Into Night is always about to come out, but never does. I’ve had her listed as a possibility in 2023 and 2024 and now 2025 and there’s still no release date. Perhaps she’ll pop up again for 2026.

Emma Mackey’s work for December’s Ella McCay is still unseen. The fact that it skipped autumn festivals could be telling, but you never know. Lucy Liu’s performance in Rosemead has been heralded at fests and distributor Vertical should push her as they picked up distribution rights for a December bow. I’m just not convinced it’ll get enough eyeballs for her to truly contend.

The other nine actresses among the 15 above are very much worthy of discussion, along with a couple others. That discussion begins (and ultimately could end) with Jessie Buckley in Hamnet. As Agnes Shakespeare, wife to the famed playwright in Chloé Zhao’s historical drama, she drew raves at Telluride and Toronto. Slated for wide release in December, the pic should garner multiple noms and Buckley is in the pole position for a victory.

Her biggest competition could be Renate Reinsve from another fest favorite Sentimental Value. I had her at #1 for awhile until Hamnet was unveiled.

While it’s still unseen, Cynthia Erivo could make it two in a row with the second part of Wicked and once again join her costar Ariana Grande (in supporting) as a nominee.

And while the movie itself drew divergent reactions, Amanda Seyfried was widely praised for The Testament of Ann Lee and Searchlight seems poised to mount a spirited campaign.

All four were in my inaugural April predictions. All four still are at the moment. The one that’s not is Julia Roberts in After the Hunt despite her being on top when I did my first ranked projections a few months ago. Since then, Hunt has been hindered plenty of negative reviews and poor box office. It’s not unthinkable for the 2000 Best Actress recipient to make the cut though it is a more remote possibility at this juncture.

Of the other possibilities from April, four still are. I could easily give two-time winner Emma Stone the spot. A Bugonia BP nom would help. The Academy could also feel like she’s been honored enough.

Rose Byrne has never been nominated for an Oscar and she’s getting career best notices for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You. Precursor attention and critics groups trophies could put her in.

Jennifer Lawrence (Die, My Love) and Tessa Thompson (Hedda) face trickier odds and if either got in, it’d be considered an upset right now. That dynamic could shift if the Globes/Critics Choice/SAG start naming either of them.

When it comes to names not mentioned in the initial 15, Sydney Sweeney has many critics saying she delivers in the boxing biopic Christy. Her chances could be KO’d by middling reviews for the pic itself.

Eva Victor (Sorry, Baby) got her flowers at Sundance and beyond. She would need precursors to gain any momentum.

There are two actresses not in the April mix that certainly are now. Chase Infiniti will be campaigned in lead for One Battle After Another which could become the next BP. The Warner Bros announcement that Infinti (in her first feature film role) is going for Actress and not Supporting Actress has caused many prognosticators to shift their thinking. She’s far from automatic (or close to it) like her costars Leonardo DiCaprio, Sean Penn, and Teyana Taylor but she could find herself joining them on the red carpet.

Finally, Kate Hudson was up 25 years ago in supporting for Almost Famous. Her role in the forthcoming Song Sung Blue is rumored to be an Oscar-baity part. We’ll know more tomorrow when it screens at the AFI Fest.

My in-depth look at the big races will continue with Best Director!

Bugonia Box Office Prediction

The latest concoction from the prolific Yorgos Lanthimos expands nationwide October 31st with Bugonia. Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons headline with Aidan Delbis, Stavros Halkias, and Alicia Silverstone providing support. It premiered at the Venice Film Festival in late August and has an 89% Rotten Tomatoes rating with 68 on Metacritic.

Poor Things became a major Academy contender (11 nominations) in 2023 while Kinds of Kindness underwhelmed with awards voters and viewers last year. I suspect Bugonia may perform closer to the latter as it could struggle everywhere between the coasts. While Poor amassed $34 million domestically at the box office, Kindness managed just $5 million.

Slated to hit around 1800 venues after a limited rollout the previous weekend, I have this between $2-4 million.

Bugonia opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million

For my Back to the Future prediction, click here:

Back to the Future Box Office Prediction

Back to the Future Box Office Prediction

Universal looks for moviegoers to return to the past when Back to the Future is out for its 40th anniversary on October 31st. The time travel classic from Robert Zemeckis that spawned two sequels features Michael J. Fox, Christopher Lloyd, Leah Thompson, Crispin Glover, Thomas F. Wilson, a DeLorean, the Libyans, and “The Power of Love”.

The power of its re-release could be limited compared to the studio’s recent 50th anniversary reissue of Jaws. That shark tale amassed nearly $10 million in late August in its first three days on around 3200 screens. Future is clocking far less venues at approximately 1900 so mid single digits is likely.

Back to the Future 40th anniversary opening weekend prediction: $4.6 million

For my Bugonia prediction, click here:

Bugonia Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: The Twits

An animated tale based on Roald Dahl’s 45-year-old novel, The Twits is out on Netflix and its marks the solo directorial debut of Phil Johnston after co-directing Disney’s Ralph Breaks the Internet. The voice cast includes Margo Martindale, Johnny Vegas, Natalie Portman, Emilia Clarke, Maitreyi Ramakrishnan, Jason Mantozoukas, Timothy Simons, Alan Tudyk, and Nicole Byer.

The source material earned high praise for the author while the film adaptation has not. Rotten Tomatoes is at 53% with a 46 on Metacritic. It is fair to assume this won’t be getting the Animated Feature nomination that went to 2009’s Dahl based Fantastic Mr. Fox. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Best Actor Race (October Edition)

Instead of writing a full update on my Oscar predictions this week, I’m doing a deep dive on the six highest profile races: Picture, Director and the four acting derbies. It began with Supporting Actor and Actress and continues today with Best Actor. If you missed my write-up on the supporting players, you can find them here:

98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actress Race (October Edition)
98th Academy Awards: The State of the Supporting Actor Race (October Edition)

I published my first preview of the lead Actor field on April 8th. In that post, I listed my initial predictions for the quintet of hopefuls along with ten other possibilities. At that impossibly early stage of the game, my selections were:

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme

George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere

Other Possibilities:

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice

Willem Dafoe, Late Fame

Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Colin Farrell, Ballad of a Small Player

Jaafar Jackson, Michael

Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Andrew Scott, Pressure

Let’s dispense with the easy subtractions, shall we? The Rivals of Amziah King with Matthew McConaughey seems more likely to release in 2026. Same goes for Jaafar Jackson in Michael and Andrew Scott in Pressure. Paul Mescal (Hamnet) will contend in Supporting Actor where I am predicting him to get a nomination.

The reviews and buzz simply doesn’t exist for Colin Farrell in Ballad of a Small Player or McConaughey in The Lost Bus. Same for Willem Dafoe in Late Fame though a surprise Globe or SAG or Critics Choice nod could make him a remote possibility. I would say the same logic applies to Lee Byung-hun for No Other Choice and Dwayne Johnson in The Smashing Machine. For the latter, subpar box office doesn’t help his chances which were once seen as rock solid.

Beyond the names above, there’s a slew of once promising contenders who have fizzled out for one reason or another. It includes Denzel Washington (Highest 2 Lowest), Will Arnett (Is This Thing On?), Brendan Fraser (Rental Family), and Oscar Isaac (Frankenstein). I don’t expect to see their names among the nominees.

So let’s discuss who I think is truly in the mix and it’s ten actors. Half will make the cut and half will not. There could be 11 via the soon to be screened Song Sung Blue with Hugh Jackman though Kate Hudson is rumored to be the awards play from that one.

From my first ranked predictions in April, I’ve had Timothée Chalamet in the #1 spot after he was probably the runner-up for Actor last year to Adrian Brody (The Brutalist) for his embodiment of Bob Dylan in A Complete Unknown. The review embargo is still intact for December’s Marty Supreme, but early word-of-mouth indicates the top ranking is justified and I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

Jeremy Allen White’s portrayal of The Boss in Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere is out tonight. His nomination seems more probable than not even though the pic itself is a question mark in BP.

George Clooney as Jay Kelly is more of an unknown as the movie has its ardent supporters and some detractors. If Kelly gets into BP, it significantly increases his odds.

Daniel Day-Lewis, a three-time winner, could get in just because he’s Daniel Day-Lewis. However, Anemone drew mixed reactions and was a non-entity at the box office.

Other than Chalamet, the performer I’m most confident makes the quintet is Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another. He’s a threat to take gold if the aforementioned competition fizzles out in the potential BP frontrunner.

Like Clooney, Jesse Plemons would benefit from Bugonia sneaking into BP. A better than currently expected performance from the film could grant him admission.

Blue Moon is a long shot for BP, but voters could still make room for veteran Ethan Hawke. He’d be vying for his third overall nom after supporting recognition for Training Day and Boyhood.

Train Dreams is also probably not on track for BP though Joel Edgerton has a so-so chance of getting in if other awards branches or critics groups bring him up.

Sinners, on the other hand, is a surefire hopeful in the big dance and Michael B. Jordan could get swept in for his dual role in the smash hit.

Wagner Moura was Best Actor at Cannes for The Secret Agent and I’m starting to believe his odds are increasing.

So there you have it. I think Chalamet and DiCaprio have punched their tickets with White close to doing the same unless Springsteen is a notable flop. The other seven are vying for slots four and five. My in-depth look at these high profile categories will continue with Best Actress!