Just as she will on the music charts starting Friday, the biggest pop star in the universe seeks to dominate the box office rankings with Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. We also have Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt in the MMA biopic The Smashing Machine, the re-release of Avatar: The Way of Water and canine centric horror tale Good Boy out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Coinciding with the release of her 12th studio album, Showgirl looks to kick up impressive earnings for its engagement lasting only this weekend. While it’s unlikely to approach the $93 million generated out of the gate by her Eras Tour doc in 2023, I believe it’ll surpass the $40 million forecasts and reach higher 40s. As a general rule, take the over when it comes to Taylor.
The Smashing Machine will compete for adult eyeballs with the second weekend of One Battle After Another. My low teens take would put it in third for a so-so showing.
While audiences await threequel James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash this December, I have the re-release of The Way of Water in mid single digits and rounding out the high five.
My lower single digits estimate at $2.8 million for Good Boy leaves it outside the top five.
As for holdovers, Battle came in at the lower end of its expected range (more on that below). However, awards buzz and the Cinemascore grade of A might mean a meager drop. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie didn’t pack in family crowds, but lack of competition for kids (though plenty of them might see Ms. Swift) could mean a decline around 40% or less.
Here’s I have it all shaking out:
1. Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl
Predicted Gross: $48.6 million
2. One Battle After Another
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
3. The Smashing Machine
Predicted Gross: $13.7 million
4. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $7.9 million
5. Avatar: The Way of Water re-release
Predicted Gross: $4.4 million
Box Office Results (September 26-28)
Paul Thomas Anderson’s acclaimed One Battle After Another certainly set a record for his openings. Yet the $22 million debut for Leonardo DiCaprio’s latest came in lower than my $27 million prediction. It will hope for (and should achieve) smallish dips in the coming weeks due to the aforementioned word-of-mouth.
Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie was second with an unimpressive $13.6 million, well under my $20.3 million call. Based on the Netflix TV show, plenty of viewers opted to stay home.
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle was third in weekend #3 with $7.1 million and ahead of my $5.8 million projection. The anime record holder has amassed $118 million stateside.
The Conjuring: Last Rites was fourth in weekend #4 at $6.7 million (I said $6.4 million) as the sequel’s tally is $161 million.
The Strangers – Chapter 2 sputtered in fifth with $5.8 million, under my $6.7 million take. This scary sequel failed to approach the double digits that its predecessor last year managed.
Speaking of underwhelming fright fest performances, Him tumbled 73% in sixth with $3.5 million. I was more generous at $5.1 million as its two-week earnings are $20 million.
On the rare occasion that Daniel Day-Lewis makes a movie, it immediately becomes a potential awards player. The English legend is one of just seven people who’ve won more than two acting Oscars with his three victories represented by 1989’s My Left Foot, 2007’s There Will Be Blood and 2012’s Lincoln. He nabbed three additional lead Actor nods for 1993’s In the Name of the Father, 2002’s Gangs of New York and 2017’s Phantom Thread.
Anemone marks his first role since Thread eight years ago and it premiered at the New York Film Festival prior to its semi-wide release next Friday. The family drama is also a family affair as son Ronan Day-Lewis makes his behind the camera debut. The director and his dad share credit on the screenplay. Sean Bean, Samantha Morton and Samuel Bottomley round out the cast.
Early word-of-mouth from the Big Apple indicates its star gives a magnetic performance with a couple of key monologues, including one that’s reportedly too filthy for an Oscar clip. Buzz for the film itself is more mixed with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. This is highly unlikely to contend for Best Picture, Director or Original Screenplay.
Yet in a Best Actor competition that is notably open at press time, Day-Lewis could certainly squeeze in. Considering the varied reaction to the pic itself, I don’t envision him making a fourth trip to the Academy’s podium. **If he did, he’d become just the second individual to do so and join Katherine Hepburn with that distinction.
Beyond the three-time winner, Anemone could be in the mix for its cinematography. If Day-Lewis receives his seventh nom, Bean and Morton could ride his coattails to supporting mentions. Both are being heralded for their contributions. For Bean, it would mark his first at-bat with Morton going for a third mention behind 1999’s Sweet and Lowdown and 2003’s In America. Their nominations seem less probable their co-star’s. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
As an NYC poet, Willem Dafoe’s character is subject to the unanticipated Late Fame of the title. Kent Jones directs the drama which has screened at the Venice and New York festivals. Greta Lee and Edmund Donovan costar.
Based on a posthumously released novella from Arthur Schnitzler and adapted by Samy Burch (who received an Adapted Screenplay nod for 2023’s May December), Fame is generating mostly complimentary early reviews. Rotten Tomatoes is at 85% with 76 on Metacritic.
If Fame were to contend for awards, it would be with Dafoe’s performance. The veteran would be vying for his fifth gold statue. His last try was for 2018’s At Eternity’s Gate in the lead derby. Dafoe’s previous three attempts were in supporting for 1986’s Platoon, 2000’s Shadow of the Vampire and 2017’s The Florida Project. He’s yet to win.
Unlike seven years ago, Best Actor is already looking too crowded for a fifth nod to be realistic. That’s unless precursors provide him with surprise mentions. We’re also not even sure that Fame will materialize as a 2025 calendar play so that doesn’t help. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Retriever Indy is said to carry Good Boy on his paws as the horror flick debuts October 3rd. After premiering at South by Southwest in the spring, encouraging word-of-mouth (95% RT, 71 Metacritic) and a memorable trailer eventually led the haunted house tale (told from the canine character’s perspective) to a wide release pattern. Ben Leonberg directs and cowrites with a human cast consisting of Shane Jensen, Arielle Friedman and Larry Fessenden.
Clocking in at a brisk 72 minutes, a best case scenario might be higher single digits. I’ll be keeping an eye out for a theater count as that could alter the estimate, but I’ll say lower single digits is the likelier outcome.
Good Boy opening weekend prediction: $2.8 million
For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:
Before the third edition of James Cameron’s money minting franchise arrives in December, predecessor Avatar: The Way of Water re-releases on October 3rd. Originally out in December 2022, the sci-fi epic looks to add to its $684 million in domestic dollars (good for 7th all-time) and excite moviegoers for Avatar: Fire an Ash.
This is not a new release pattern for 20th Century Studios. In September 2022, the first Avatar (the 4th biggest stateside grosser ever) had a return engagement in multiplexes. It added $10.5 million in its first 3 days.
The slightly diminishing (though still potent) results that greeted Water should apply once again. The re-release of 2009’s original was likely assisted by a longer lag time than what we have here. Nevertheless I’ll saythis return engagement still manages mid single digits.
Avatar: The Way of Water re-release opening weekend prediction: $4.4 million
For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:
Opening tomorrow, crime thriller Dead of Winter is set in the frozen Minnesotan tundra with a high profile actress headlining. Other than the accents, that might be where the Fargo comparisons stop. Brian Kirk directs Emma Thompson as a widow who happens upon a kidnapping plot. Judy Greer, Marc Menchaca, Laurel Marsden and Brian F. O’Byrne provide support.
The majority of reviews are not cold, but also not raves. Rotten Tomatoes is at 75% with 67 on Metacritic. Critics are appreciative of Thompson (a 1992 Best Actress winner for Howards End) and Greer playing against type. Winter is keeping a low profile and don’t expect awards bodies to warm up to it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Dwayne Johnson seeks rock solid returns when The Smashing Machine enters the box office ring on October 3rd. Marking the solo directorial debut of Benny Safdie (brother Josh has his own with Marty Supreme in December), Johnson stars as MMA fighter Mark Kerr with Emily Blunt as his wife. The supporting cast includes Ryan Bader, Bas Rutten and Oleksandr Usyk (all from the real life fight world).
Seen as Johnson’s first legit bid for awards consideration, Machine debuted at Venice to mostly positive reviews (75% RT, 69 Metacritic). Steering away from broad based action and comedy (often set in jungles), A24 hopes the former wrestler’s latest plays well throughout October.
The MMA factor could help this get past my projection, but I don’t think the buzz is strong enough for this to reach $20 million. Even mid to high teens could be a challenge.
The Smashing Machine opening weekend prediction: $13.7 million
For my Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl prediction, click here:
Coinciding with the release of her 12th album The Life of a Showgirl, the unstoppable force that is Taylor Swift is back in theaters October 3rd courtesy of Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl. Clocking in at just under an hour and a half, Showgirl will showcase the premiere of a new video in addition to lyric videos for other tracks and behind the scenes footage.
Announced just days ago, all domestic AMC Theatres will feature the project as well as participating Alamo Drafthouse, Regal and Cinemark locations. Tickets are $12 to honor her 12th album. Nearly two years ago, the pop sensation dominated the box office with her Eras Tour big screen experience. It opened to a walloping $93 million on its way to a $180 million stateside haul.
Showgirl will only be in theaters for three days. Expectations are not as high and this probably won’t play on the 3800+ venues that Eras did. Early estimates have this grossing around $40 million. This might go without saying, but I would take the over when it comes to Ms. Swift.
When the screen count is released, my estimate could fluctuate. While I agree this won’t reach Eras level, I’m going with low to mid 50s and let’s see if that ticks up (or maybe down) in the days to come.
Taylor Swift: The Official Release Party of a Showgirl opening weekend (and overall gross) prediction: $48.6 million
For my The Smashing Machine prediction, click here:
We are now in the fall season of serious prognosticating as a huge portion of Oscar hopefuls have already screened courtesy of Venice, Telluride and Toronto. As discussed in my previous update on September 13th, the biggest story of the month didn’t come from those festivals. It came via Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another which opens this Friday. Greeted with rapturous reviews, Another vaulted to 1st in my Best Picture, Director and Adapted Screenplay rankings with Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn joining my projected acting quintets in the supporting fields. However, ten days ago, I’d yet to include Leonardo DiCaprio in the Best Actor five. Now I am and that’s at the expense of George Clooney (Jay Kelly). This is a major swing as Leo rises 5 spots while Clooney falls 4.
We also have a change in the BP ten with Park Chan-wook’s No Other Choice entering and Avatar: Fire and Ash on the outside looking in. The director line-up remains the same though I came close to putting Chan-wook in.
In Supporting Actor, Delroy Lindo (Sinners) is out of the lineup with Jeremy Strong (Springsteen) back in. In Supporting Actress, Gwyneth Paltrow’s work in Marty Supreme reenters with Emily Blunt (The Smashing Machine) dipping.
As I did around the same time in 2024, I’m condensing my projections. Instead of 25 possibilities in BP, it shrinks to 15. In all other fields, I’m now listing 10. The next big happening that could impact my forecasts is the New York Film Festival. Starting Friday, NYFF will provide first looks at Anemone with Daniel Day-Lewis and Bradley Cooper’s Is This Thing On?
You can read all the movement beyond Mr. DiCaprio’s elevation below.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (E)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 7) (-2)
10. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 12) (-1)
14. A House of Dynamite (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Rental Family (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
The Secret Agent
The Testament of Ann Lee
The Rivals of Amziah King
Blue Moon
Is This Thing On?
Anemone
The Voice of Hind Rajib
After the Hunt
Weapons
Father Mother Sister Brother
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (E)
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice (PR: 11) (+5)
7. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Kathryn Bigelow, A House of Dynamite (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
Noam Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent
Kaouther Ben Hania, The Voice of Hind Rajib
Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 6) (E)
7. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sydney Sweeney, Christy (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
Emma Mackey, Ella McCay
Lucy Liu, Rosemead
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (+5)
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (E)
4. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (PR: 11) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
Hugh Jackman, Song Sung Blue
Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 2) (E)
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (E)
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
5. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (+4)
8. Amy Madigan, Weapons (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Akira Emoto, Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Miles Caton, Sinners
Andrew Scott, Blue Moon
Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Sean Bean, Anemone
Bradley Cooper, Is This Thing On?
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sinners (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Rental Family (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sorry, Baby (PR: 7) (E)
8. Blue Moon (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Secret Agent (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A House of Dynamite (PR: 11) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Weapons
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
The Testament of Ann Lee
After the Hunt
Father Mother Sister Brother
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 2) (E)
3. Bugonia (PR: 3) (E)
4. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (E)
7. Is This Thing On? (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Frankenstein (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Train Dreams (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Life of Chuck
Highest 2 Lowest
Nouvelle Vague
The Smashing Machine
Hedda
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sentimental Value (PR: 1) (E)
2. It Was Just an Accident (PR: 2) (E)
3. No Other Choice (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Secret Agent (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Voice of Hind Rajib (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sirât (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Sound of Falling (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Left-Handed Girl (PR: 6) (-2)
9. The President’s Cake (PR: 9) (E)
10. My Father’s Shadow (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Love That Remains
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. KPop Demon Hunters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zootopia 2 (PR: 2) (E)
3. Arco (PR: 3) (E)
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Elio (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Magnificent Life (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Scarlet (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Ne Zha 2 (PR: 9) (+1)
9. In Your Dreams (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Animal Farm (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Perfect Neighbor (PR: 1) (E)
2. 2000 Meters to Andrivka (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin (PR: 3) (E)
4. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk (PR: Not Ranked)
5. Cover-Up (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Seeds (PR: 6) (E)
7. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 7) (E)
8. Orwell 2 + 2 = 5 (PR: 10) (+2)
9. The Eyes of Ghana (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Cutting Through Rocks (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Below the Clouds
Best Casting
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+3)
4. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Rental Family (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. Hamnet (PR: 3) (+1)
3. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Frankenstein (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Bugonia (PR: 6) (E)
7. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Train Dreams (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8)(-1)
Dropped Out:
F1
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 3) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 3) (E)
4. Hamnet (PR: 4) (E)
5. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hedda (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Snow White (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
One Battle After Another
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Sinners (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Choice (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (-3)
8. A House of Dynamite (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Wicked: For Good (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
F1
Bugonia
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Frankenstein (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (E)
3. Sinners (PR: 4) (+1)
4. The Smashing Machine (PR: 3) (-1)
5. 28 Years Later (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Bugonia (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Wolf Man (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Marty Supreme (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Hamnet (PR: 5) (-5)
Dropped Out:
The Wizard of the Kremlin
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 1) (E)
2. One Battle After Another (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (E)
5. Frankenstein (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked: For Good (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Marty Supreme (PR: 7) (E)
8. Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)
9. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: Not Ranked)
10. After the Hunt (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
A House of Dynamite
Hedda
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E) – listed as TBD
2. “Golden” from KPop: Demon Hunters (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “I Lied to You” from Sinners (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good (PR: 5) (+1) – listed as TBD
5. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (-1)
7. “Clothed by the Sun” from The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Give Your Love” from The Ballad of Wallis Island (PR: 9) (+1)
9. “Pale, Pale Moon” from Sinners (PR: 8) (-1)
10. “Waiting on a Wish” from Snow White (PR: 10) (E)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Frankenstein (PR: 2) (E)
3. Hamnet (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Marty Supreme (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sinners (PR: 3) (-3)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Testament of Ann Lee (PR: 8) (E)
9. Bugonia (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Phoenician Scheme (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blue Moon
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 3) (E)
4. F1 (PR: 4) (E)
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Warfare (PR: 5) (-1)
7. One Battle After Another (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 8) (E)
9. A House of Dynamite (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked: For Good (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Superman (PR: 2) (-1)
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps (PR: 5) (+1)
5. F1 (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tron: Ares (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Frankenstein (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Warfare (PR: 7) (-2)
10. How to Train Your Dragon (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Lost Bus
And that works out to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
12 Nominations
Sinners
10 Nominations
One Battle After Another, Wicked: For Good
9 Nominations
Hamnet, Sentimental Value
8 Nominations
Marty Supreme
5 Nominations
Frankenstein, Jay Kelly
4 Nominations
Bugonia, It Was Just an Accident, No Other Choice
3 Nominations
Avatar: Fire and Ash, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2 Nominations
F1, KPop: Demon Hunters, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
1 Nomination
28 Years Later, 2000 Meters to Andrivka, Arco, Cover-Up, Diane Warren: Relentless, Elio, The Fantastic Four: First Steps, Kiss of the Spider Woman, Little Amelie or the Character of Rain, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, The Perfect Neighbor, Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk, The Secret Agent, The Smashing Machine, Superman, The Testament of Ann Lee, The Voice of Hind Rajib, Zootopia 2
Leonardo DiCaprio looks to conquer all multiplex foes in Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, but faces competition from Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie and The Strangers – Chapter 2. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Battle is favored to come out ahead based on major Oscar buzz and star power. I’m projecting high 20s as it looks to leg out impressively in subsequent frames.
Dollhouse is more of a wildcard. Based on a popular Netflix kids show, the mix of live-action and animation could surpass my low 20s estimate and come in 1st under the best case scenario.
I’m not looking for much out of The Strangers. Last year’s predecessor managed to top $10 million out of the gate. I suspect the follow-up will not. It might even fall behind the fourth frame of The Conjuring though I’ll give it the slight benefit of the doubt.
The fresh trio should place 1-3. As for holdovers, The Conjuring: Last Rites may see a smaller decline than Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle or Him.
Here’s how I see the top 6 shaking out:
1. One Battle After Another
Predicted Gross: $27 million
2. Gabby’s Dollhouse: The Movie
Predicted Gross: $20.3 million
3. The Strangers – Chapter 2
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
4. The Conjuring: Last Rites
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
5. Demon Slayer – Kimetsu No Yaiba – The Movie: Infinity Castle
Predicted Gross: $5.8 million
6. Him
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million
Box Office Results (September 19-21)
After an explosive record setting premiere for an anime title, Demon Slayer managed to stay atop the charts for a second weekend despite a 75% plummet (not unexpected). It grossed $17.3 million and just topped my $16.2 million call for $104 million thus far.
Sports themed horror pic Him with Marlon Wayans underwhelmed (poor reviews didn’t help) in the runner-spot position with $13.2 million. I was more generous at $20.3 million and thought it would come out on top. Look for about a 60% or more ease in weekend #2.
The Conjuring: Last Rites was third with $12.2 million, on pace with my $12.4 million prediction. The three-week take is $150 million.
Downton Abbey: The Grand Finale was fourth with $6.4 million (I said $6.5 million) for $31 million in two weeks.
The Long Walk rounded out the top five in its sophomore outing with $6.2 million. My guesstimate? $6.2 million! The ten-day gross is $22 million.
A Big Bold Beautiful Journey with Margot Robbie and Colin Farrell, despite its magnetic leads, bombed in sixth with a bleak $3.2 million. I went a bit higher at $4.8 million.
Finally, The Senior from Angel Studios (with an inspiration football theme) was deflated in seventh with $2.6 million compared to my $3.3 million projection.
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