Spike Lee’s crime thriller Highest 2 Lowest has premiered at Cannes prior to A24’s theatrical release in August and Apple TV streaming bow in September. Updating Akira Kurosawa’s High and Low from 1963, Denzel Washington plays a music mogul caught up in a ransom plot. Costars include Ilfenesh Hadera, Jeffrey Wright, ASAP Rocky, and Ice Spice.
Critics are certainly higher than lower for the French unveiling. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94% with Metacritic at 77. According to reviews, it’s a successful genre exercise. That means, from an awards perspective, it might be a non-player like Spike and Denzel’s previous collaboration Inside Man from 2006 (this marks the fifth time they’ve teamed up).
However, I wouldn’t completely discount Denzel’s chances in Best Actor. If he could make the cut for 2017’s Roman J. Israel, Esq., he could do the same here and nab his 10th overall nom. 2017 was arguably a weak year in that category and we don’t know how the competition this time around will shake out. Mr. Washington likely came close to his 10th mention in supporting last year for Gladiator II. He might be in the arena once again. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (05/21/25): I am upping my Lilo & Stitch estimate considerably from $118.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $143.7 million from Friday to Monday to $159.7 million for the three-day and $196.6 million for the four-day. That would easily be a new Memorial Day weekend record.
Hollywood hopes moviegoers make it their mission to go to the movies over the long weekend as Disney’s Lilo & Stitch looks to rule the charts with Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning placing second. There’s also The Last Rodeo from faith-based Angel Studios debuting and Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd’s dark comedy Friendship expanding wide. My detailed prediction posts on the quartet can be accessed here:
Nostalgia and the Mouse House’s marketing muscle should propel Lilo & Stitch to more impressive heights than, say, Snow White from earlier this year. I have the live-action version of the 2002 animated tale reaching just under $120 million for the Friday to Sunday portion of Memorial Day weekend and just over $140 million for the four-day.
Tom Cruise should easily achieve runner-up status with the eighth and (final?) pic in his nearly 30-year-old franchise. I am estimating that The Final Reckoning will somewhat capitalize on its finale status with a three-day near $60 million (edging predecessor Dead Reckoning) and north of $70 million counting Monday.
The Last Rodeo could place sixth while I have Friendship in 7th place. Either has the chance to over perform, but I doubt it considering the amount of competition.
As for holdovers, Final Destination Bloodlines got off to a terrific start (more on that below), but should experience the hefty decline that usually greets horror titles. Holdovers The New Avengers, Sinners, and Minecraft should see minimal declines as is custom over this particular holiday.
And with that, here’s my top 8 take and keep in mind that grosses for returning flicks are a Friday to Monday forecast:
1. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $196.6 million (Friday to Monday); $159.7 million (Friday to Sunday)
2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $80.8 million (Friday to Monday); $64.4 million (Friday to Sunday)
3. Final Destination Bloodlines
Predicted Gross: $24.9 million
4. Sinners
Predicted Gross: $14.5 million
5. The New Avengers
Predicted Gross: $14 million
6. The Last Rodeo
Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (Friday to Monday); $6.4 million (Friday to Sunday)
7. Friendship
Predicted Gross: $5.1 million (Friday to Monday); $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday)
8. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $4.9 million
Box Office Results (May 16-18)
As mentioned, Final Destination Bloodlines logged a far better than anticipated gross with $51.6 million. That’s easily the best premiere in the 25-year-old franchise and should kickstart plenty more Destination‘s to come. It surpassed my $42.2 million prediction and represents another success story for WB behind A Minecraft Movie and Sinners.
The New Avengers/Thunderbolts* fell to second after two weeks on top with $16.6 million, a tad shy of my $18.1 million prediction. The MCU adventure sits at $155 million after three weeks.
Sinners was third with $15.2 million (I said $15.9 million) as it has now bitten off $240 million in its five weeks.
A Minecraft Movie was fourth with $5.9 million compared to my $5.2 million call as the mega blockbuster has made $416 million after seven weeks.
The Accountant 2 rounded out the top five with $4.7 million, on target with my $4.6 million number. The sequel’s total is $58 million in four weeks.
Finally, critically drubbed Hurry Up Tomorrow starring The Weeknd stumbled in sixth with $3.3 million and that’s under my $4.5 million projection.
After performing well in limited release, dark comedy Friendship hopes to expand impressively over Memorial Day weekend. Andrew DeYoung’s directorial debut first rolled out last fall at the Toronto Film Festival. Tim Robinson (from Netflix’s acclaimed I Think You Should Leave with Tim Robinson) and Paul Rudd headline with Kata Mara, Jack Dylan Grazer, Josh Segarra, and Billy Bryk in support.
Friendship was seventh at the box office this past weekend on only 60 screens with $1.4 million for a $23k per venue average. That brings it total to $2 million overall. The nationwide expansion could see those figures doubled and a four-day holiday take in the $5 million range.
Friendship opening (wide) weekend prediction: $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $5.1 million (Friday to Monday)
I’m Still Here from Walter Salles became the first Brazilian production to take home Best International Feature Film at the 97th Academy Awards. The previous nominee before that was back in 1998 with Central Station. The nation may not have to wait long for its next at bat courtesy of The Secret Agent. The 1970s set political thriller is directed by Kleber Mendonça Filho and stars Wagner Moura Udo Kier, Gabriel Leone, and Maria Fernanda Cândido.
The Cannes premiere has garnered impressive reviews with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 86 Metacritic. Assuming Brazil submits this as their contender in IFF (and why wouldn’t they?), a spot in the eventual quintet appears likely.
Agent nods could stop there. However, with the right campaign, Best Picture, Director, Original Screenplay (from its filmmaker), and even Moura’s performance in lead Actor could be on the table. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Wes Anderson is back at Cannes with The Phoenician Scheme, his latest comedy sporting a gigantic cast opening stateside June 6th. Benicio del Toro and Mia Threapleton have the most significant roles with an ensemble also (deep breath) including Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Rupert Friend, Hope Davis, Bill Murray, Charlotte Gainsbourg, and Willem Dafoe.
We are more than a decade removed from The Grand Budapest Hotel which turned out to be Anderson’s most significant awards contender yet (nine Oscar nods with victories in Costume Design, Makeup & Hairstyling, Original Score, and Production Design). His two Phoenician predecessors generated minimal attention in their seasons with The French Dispatch up for Score at the Globes and Asteroid City blanked from the Academy and at the Globes.
Phoenician‘s reaction in France indicates this will follow in the footsteps of those recent titles and not Hotel. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is 79% with Metacritic at 74. Even with the typical praise for Production Design and Score, I doubt this shows up anywhere at the Oscars and that includes the new Casting category. Depending on competition, del Toro and Threapleton (daughter of Kate Winslet) could be threats for noms in the Musical/Comedy races in their respective acting derbies. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Premiering her directorial debut at Cannes, Kristen Stewart’s The Chronology of Water is making some waves across the pond. Based on a memoir by Lidia Yuknavitch, the romance casts Imogen Poots as the source material’s author with a supporting cast including Thora Birch, Earl Cave, Kim Gordon, and Jim Belushi (!).
A Best Actress nominee for 2021’s Spencer, Stewart is mostly being lauded for her initial inaugural behind the camera effort. Rotten Tomatoes is at 92% with Metacritic at 74. Stateside distribution is in flux, but a deal will likely be secured in France. Poots in particular is drawing a lot of attention though I wonder if she could fit it into what looks (on paper) like a crowded lead Actress field. That might depend on whether a spirited campaign is waged. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Could France’s selection for International Feature come from Texas’s Richard Linklater? Judging from reaction at Cannes, that’s a distinct possibility with Nouvelle Vague. The period piece recounts the filming of the landmark French New Wave pic Breathless with Guillaume Marbeck as director Jean-Luc Godard and Zoey Deutch as star Jean Seberg.
It’s no surprise that viewers in Cannes are appreciating Nouvelle as it stands at 100% on Rotten Tomatoes. How it translates outside of its native country remains to be seen. The French have gotten 8 of their contenders for IFF nominated in the 21st century including last year’s Emilia Pérez. You have to go back to 1992 and Indochine for their previous winner.
If this were their pick in the international race, there could be enough support to make the quintet. I’m not sure if branches out anywhere beyond that despite praise for its two leads. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In a six year period from 2010-2016, Jennifer Lawrence received 4 Oscar nominations. There was a Best Actress victory for 2012’s Silver Linings Playbook in addition to nods in lead for 2010’s Winter’s Bone and 2015’s Joy and Supporting Actress for 2013’s American Hustle. It’s now been a decade since she was in the awards mix, but Die, My Love could change that. Based on a 2017 novel by Ariana Harwicz, Lynne Ramsay (We Need to Talk About Kevin, You Were Never Really Here) helms her first feature in seven years. Lawrence headlines the psychological thriller as a mother suffering from postpartum depression. Robert Pattinson, LaKeith Stanfield, Sissy Spacek, and Nick Nolte costar.
One of the most anticipated Cannes debuts (the stateside drop date is TBD), Die has lived up to expectations of some critics and festival goers. The RT rating is 90% though some reviews and social media feedback suggests this could be tough to audiences to digest. Lawrence’s work, however, might not be ignored. If she becomes a surefire nominee in Actress, Die’s most ardent admirers could propel this to Picture and Director (the sound work is being singled out as well). At the least, its journey is worth monitoring as a fall premiere is likely on the horizon. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Germany has an impressive history of International Feature Film nods at the Academy Awards in the 21st century. This includes wins for 2002’s Nowhere in Africa, 2006’s The Lives of Others, and 2022’s All Quiet on the Western Front with nominations for Downfall, Sophie Scholl – The Final Days, The Baader Meinhof Complex, The White Ribbon, Toni Erdmann, Never Look Away, The Teachers’ Lounge, and The Seed of the Sacred Fig.
Sound of Falling could certainly be the country’s 12th pic to contend in this past two decades plus. Slated for release in Germany this September with stateside distribution pending, the time shifting drama premiered at Cannes. Mascha Schilinski directs her sophomore effort after 2017’s Dark Blue Girl. The cast includes Hanna Heckt, Lena Urzendowsky, Laenie Geiseler, Susanne Wuest, and Lea Drinda.
The Rotten Tomatoes and Metacritic numbers currently match at an eye catching 91. Reviews particularly praise the direction and camerawork. If Germany submits this as the hopeful for IFF (and that would appear to be a wise move), a spot among the quintet is a major possibility.
Could it garner more attention than that? That might depend on which distributor picks this up for U.S. release and whether Schilinski and the cinematography are focuses of their attention. In a best case scenario, a BP nod could be on the table, but I wouldn’t expect that call when I update my predictions shortly on the blog. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Deaf President Now! is available for streaming this weekend as the documentary recounts a 1988 protest at Gallaudet University, the world’s sole college for Deaf people. The Apple TV product is co-directed by Nyle DiMarco, who gained fame as an activist for the community while winning reality shows America’s Next Top Model and Dancing with the Stars back to back. His copilot behind the camera is Davis Guggenheim, Oscar winner for 2006’s An Inconvenient Truth whose last effort was the acclaimed Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie (also for Apple).
Now! is certified very fresh with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 79 on Metacritic. The inspirational civil rights tale could factor into the Documentary Feature race if the distributor gives it a strong campaign. If this makes the shortlist months down the road, a spot in the eventual quintet is certainly achievable. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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