Month: May 2025

Oscar Predictions: The Mastermind

Kelly Reichardt, acclaimed director of Night Moves, Certain Women, and First Cow, has premiered The Mastermind at Cannes. Dubbed as a heist movie where most of the story takes place post heist, Josh O’Connor is an art thief circa 1970. The supporting cast includes Alana Haim, John Magaro, Hope Davis, Bill Camp, Gaby Hoffman, and Amanda Plummer.

With distribution from Mubi, this is generating approving notices in France with 91% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic. That said, Reichardt has yet to enter into the Academy’s consciousness and I doubt The Mastermind will change that. Unless Mubi mounts an amazing Best Actor campaign for O’Connor, my takeaway is that this won’t be a contender despite the good natured reactions (especially for him). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: A Private Life

While the picture itself is drawing more assorted reactions (80% currently on RT), Cannes viewers are praising Jodie Foster’s lead work in A Private Life. She plays an emotionally challenged psychiatrist investigating a crime in the dramedy from Rebecca Zlotowski. Costars include Daniel Auteuil, Virginie Efira, and Mathieu Amalric. Sony Pictures Classics holds the stateside distribution rights with a release date TBD.

Foster is no stranger to awards love with five Oscar noms including lead Actress victories for 1988’s The Accused and 1991’s The Silence of the Lambs. Her last nod came just two years ago in supporting for Nyad. I don’t see the legendary performer grabbing her sixth for this.

The Golden Globes could be a different story. If Sony campaigns for Foster in Best Actress (Musical/Comedy), she could be in line for her 8th GG try when counting her TV work. That particular branch loves her as she’s taken home 4 trophies from the group formerly known as the Hollywood Foreign Press Association. My Oscar (and Globe) prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The History of Sound

The History of Sound features Paul Mescal and Josh O’Connor as musicians involved in a romance during the World War I era. Costars include Chris Cooper, Molly Price, Raphael Sbarge, and Hadley Robinson. The Cannes premiere is from Oliver Hermanus, who last directed Bill Nighy to a lead Actor nom for 2022’s Living.

Unlike A Complete Unknown from the previous ceremony, don’t expect this folk song heavy drama to be a major Academy contender. Plenty of reviews are respectful, but this is not a festival breakout with 70% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 62 Metacritic. Mescal and O’Connor could have other opportunities this year with Hamnet and The Mastermind respectively. Sound is unlikely to offer their names for consideration. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions – Bono: Stories of Surrender

Bono: Stories of Surrender hits Apple TV on May 30th documenting the U2 frontman’s one-man NYC stage show in 2023. Those performances took their inspiration from the legendary singer and humanitarian’s memoir. He’s enlisted some heavy hitters to assist here including director Andrew Dominik (The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford, Blonde) and Oscar-winning cinematographer Erik Messerschmidt (Mank).

These celeb centered docs rarely make their way to serious awards consideration. Surrender should fall into that classification with 75% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 58 Metacritic. That won’t get it done unless its streamer finds mysterious ways to entice voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Alpha

Julia Ducournau’s body horror tale Titane took Cannes by storm in 2021, emerging with the Palme d’Or. The French selected it as their horse for International Feature Film at the Oscars, but it surprised prognosticators by not even making the shortlist of contenders.

The auteur is back at the festival with Alpha, returning her to Titane‘s genre with a cast including Tahar Rahim, Golshifeth Farahani, Mélissa Boros, Emma Mackey, Finnegan Oldfield, and Louai El Amrousy.

Reaction from the Riviera is far more varied than Ducournau’s previous Palme taker. Rotten Tomatoes stands at 56% with Metacritic at 47. That’s compared to the respective 90/75 scores of Titane. It is probably a safe assumption that France will not submit this as their entry for IFF and awards chatter for Alpha will be muted. Distributor Neon, it should be said, has more viable hopefuls including the heralded Sentimental Value. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Bring Her Back Box Office Prediction

Australian twins Danny and Michael Philippou follow up their acclaimed 2023 horror pic Talk to Me with another via Bring Her Back on May 30th. Sally Hawkins and Billy Barratt headline the A24 property marking the brothers’ second directorial feature.

Talk to Me exceeded expectations two summers ago with a debut north of $10 million and $48 million overall domestic haul (it made nearly $100 million worldwide). Critical reaction for Back is sturdy with 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 73 Metacritic.

I don’t envision this exceeding what Talk managed though it should open in the same range.

Bring Her Back opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million

For my Karate Kid: Legends prediction, click here:

Karate Kid: Legends Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Sentimental Value

Distributor Neon has shined brightly at the Cannes Film Festival by releasing the previous five Palme d’Or recipients: Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. Only Titane missed a Best Picture nod from the Academy. Parasite and Anora won. That’s one of the reasons Joachim Trier’s family drama Sentimental Value is considered to be a serious contender for the top prize in France. Another is because it’s the filmmaker’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2021 effort The Worst Person in the World which reunites him with star Renate Reinsve. The supporting cast includes Stellan Skarsgård, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Elle Fanning, Anders Danielsen Lie, and Cory Michael Smith.

Early festival reaction is effusive and points to Value indeed being a major Palme threat. Neon could guide this to numerous Oscar nods including Picture, Director, Reinsve in Actress, Skasrgård in Supporting Actor, and Original Screenplay. Then there’s Supporting Actress and according to reviews, Neon may have a decision to make as Lilleass and Fanning are both being praised. The latter would be a higher profile campaign, but let’s see how it plays out.

Bottom line: there is no doubt that Sentimental has quickly established itself a potential force at Cannes and beyond. Expect to hear a lot about it this awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Lilo & Stitch

I have talked extensively on the blog about how live-action remakes of Disney pics have received a decent amount of nominations. Titles such as Alice in Wonderland, Cinderella, The Jungle Book, Beauty and the Beast, The Lion King, and Cruella lend themselves to races like Costume Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, and Visual Effects. Even this year’s critical and box office misfire Snow White could land a mention or two.

So where does Lilo & Stitch fit into the equation? Out this weekend, it live-action updates the 2002 original which scored a Best Animated Feature nod. Dean Fleischer Camp directs a cast including Maia Keoloha, Chris Sanders, Sydney Elizebeth Agudong, Zach Galifianakis, Billy Magnussen, Courtney B. Vance, Hannah Waddingham, Tia Carrere, Amy Hill, and Jason Scott Lee.

Critical reaction is fair with 72% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 55 Metacritic. This certainly won’t be the first Mouse House feature in this sub genre to land top-of-the-line attention. It also doesn’t correlate well to the tech races mentioned above. Chances are this will receive one less nomination than its source material. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Karate Kid: Legends Box Office Prediction

Sony hopes that Karate Kid: Legends kicks into high gear at the box office when it debuts May 30th. The sixth overall feature in the series sees Ralph Macchio from the first three installments (1984-1989) and Jackie Chan from 2010’s version in mentorship mode. Ben Wang stars with a supporting cast including Joshua Jackson, Sadie Stanley, and Ming-Na Wen. Jonathan Entwistle directs.

The franchise has been dormant theatrically for 15 years after the Chan version grossed over $350 million worldwide and $176 million stateside. However, the property has been fresh in the minds of viewers courtesy of Netflix’s Cobra Kai. That popular show just ended its seven year run and featured Macchio as well as numerous other characters from the movies.

That exposure should mean a fairly decent start. I wouldn’t discount it reaching over $25 million though I’ll project low 20s.

Karate Kid: Legends opening weekend prediction: $21.3 million

For my Bring Her Back prediction, click here:

Bring Her Back Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Eleanor the Great

At age 95, June Squibb was at the Cannes Film Festival today as her starring vehicle Eleanor the Great debuted. The dramedy marks the directorial debut of Scarlett Johansson with a supporting cast including Chiwetel Ejiofor, Jessica Hecht, Erin Kellyman, and Rita Zohar.

It marks the second year in a row that Squibb is considered a factor in the awards conversation. Last year’s Thelma garnered impressive reviews. They ultimately did not translate into nominations for its star who was up for Supporting Actress for 2013’s Nebraska.

As we await word of stateside distribution, Eleanor had a mixed reaction in France. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 64% though Squibb is being heralded. She’ll need a strong campaign that exceeds Thelma‘s in what looks like a crowded Actress field. Her chances could be stronger at the Globes where the distributor will be faced with a choice of whether to slot her in Drama or Musical/Comedy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…