The supernatural horror pic Bring Her Back is out this weekend with critics praising the Philippou brothers’ follow-up to 2023’s Talk to Me. Billy Barratt, Sora Wong, and Sally Hawkins star. Distributed by A24 stateside, early box office numbers are so-so but it has a B+ Cinemascore (quite solid for the genre), 89% on Rotten Tomatoes, and a 75 Metacritic.
This is ground covered before on the blog, but it is a high bar for Academy voters to take notice of movies with horror elements. Recent examples include Get Out and The Substance. They each nabbed BP mentions with nods for their leading performers. While Hawkins in particular is being lauded for her work, I don’t envision Back getting into the mix during awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Wes Anderson’s latest The Phoenician Scheme, following its limited rollout in six venues this weekend, expands nationwide June 6th. Originally screened at Cannes earlier this month, Benicio del Toro and Mia Threapleton headline the the black comedy. Per usual with Mr. Anderson’s tales, the supporting cast is massive and includes Michael Cera, Riz Ahmed, Tom Hanks, Bryan Cranston, Mathieu Amalric, Richard Ayoade, Jeffrey Wright, Scarlett Johansson, Benedict Cumberbatch, Hope Davis, Rupert Friend, Bill Murray, Charlotte Gainsbourg, Willem Dafoe, and F. Murray Abraham.
Phoenician reviews are decent though not as effusive as those that greeted other works from the auteur. Rotten Tomatoes is at 77% with a 71 Metacritic. Anderson is certainly one of those filmmakers with a devoted following. His pictures aren’t going to make $100 million+, but they have their niche.
Predecessor Asteroid City from summer 2023 made $9 million for its expansion. I see no reason why Scheme wouldn’t gather about the same.
The Phoenician Scheme opening weekend prediction: $8.7 million
Ballerina looks to spin box office gold for Lionsgate when it debuts on June 6th. A spinoff of the John Wick franchise, Ana de Armas joins the world of assassins in this cinematic universe with Len Wiseman directing. Gabriel Byrne, Catalina Sandino Moreno, and Norman Reedus provide support. Lucky for the studio’s marketing department, so do several cast members of Wick installments including Anjelica Huston, Ian McShane, Lance Reddick (in his final feature role), and Mr. Wick himself Keanu Reeves.
Originally slated for last summer, the project was pushed back a full year. It takes place between the events of John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum and John Wick: Chapter 4. Recent TV ads have highlighted Keanu’s involvement with the title styled as From the World of John Wick: Ballerina.
Parabellum debuted to $56 million in 2019 while 2023’s fourth installment kicked off with $73 million, Ballerina is not expected to reach those heights and its start should be more in line with John Wick: Chapter Two‘s $30 million premiere in 2017. $40 million is possible, but I’ll say mid 30s.
Ballerina opening weekend prediction: $36.8 million
For my The Phoenician Scheme prediction, click here:
Karate Kid: Legends hopes to kick into high gear at multiplexes this weekend. We also have horror pic Bring Her Back seeking to scare up decent dollars. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
The recent success of Cobra Kai on Netflix could assist with Legends performing well. Ralph Macchio and Jackie Chan headline the sixth feature in the franchise that began over 40 years ago. My low 20s estimate puts it in third.
Bring Her Back is the sophomore feature from the Philippou brothers after their 2023 summer sleeper Talk to Me. My high single digits figure puts it in the fourth just ahead of Final Destination Bloodlines in its third outing.
I have the top two slots still belonging to Lilo & Stitch and Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning after they propelled the Memorial Day weekend to its highest earnings ever. My guesstimates have both easing in the low to mid 50s percent range.
Here’s how I have the top 5 playing out:
1. Lilo & Stitch
Predicted Gross: $66.4 million
2. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
Predicted Gross: $28.7 million
3. Karate Kid: Legends
Predicted Gross: $21.3 million
4. Bring Her Back
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. Final Destination Bloodlines
Predicted Gross: $8 million
Box Office Results (May 23-26)
The Mouse House was in celebration mode as Lilo & Stitch achieved the largest Memorial Day weekend in history and surpassed the previous $160 million four-day record held by Tom Cruise’s Top Gun: Maverick. The live-action remake of the 2002 animated feature made $146 million over the Friday to Sunday portion of the holiday frame while amassing $182.6 million counting Monday. While that’s under my respective predictions of $159.7 million and $196.6 million, it is still a scorching start for the Disney property as it will vie for highest domestic earner of summer 2025.
While Tom Cruise’s record was broken by Lilo, he set one of his own as Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning was second with $64 million for the three-day and $79 million for the four-day. That’s right on target with my $64.4 million and $80.8 million projections as the eighth and allegedly final Ethan Hunt adventure set a personal best for the franchise. It needed to do so considering the reported $400 million price tag.
Final Destination Bloodlines was third with $24.1 million from Friday to Monday and that’s on pace with my $24.9 million call. The sequel has taken in an impressive $94 million in two weeks.
Thunderbolts*/The New Avengers was fourth with $12.2 million, a shade below my $14 million forecast. The MCU property sits at $174 million in four weeks.
Sinners rounded out the top five with $11.9 million (I went higher at $14.5 million) for $258 million in six weeks.
The Last Rodeo, the latest faith-based drama from Angel Studios, lassoed $5.4 million (Friday-Sunday) and $6.9 million (FRI-MON) in sixth. That’s a bit below my estimates of $6.4 million and $7.8 million.
Posting a commendable per screen average, critically lauded comedy Friendship with Tim Robinson and Paul Rudd was seventh in its nationwide expansion to just over 1000 venues. It made $4.5 million over the three-day and $5.7 million adding Monday. That’s slightly more than my $4.2 million and $5.1 million predictions. It now has $8 million total in its coffers.
Finally, A Minecraft Movie lost steam due to Lilo with $2.9 million in eighth. I was more generous at $4.9 million. The blockbuster has brought in a massive $421 million after eight weeks.
Jafar Panahi’s political thriller It Was Just an Accident was a bit of a surprise Palme d’Or victor at Cannes over Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. However, its writer/director is no stranger to festival love. His 2000 work The Circle took top prize at Venice while 2015’s Taxi won highest honors in Berlin.
With a cast led by Vahid Mobasseri, Mariam Afshari, Ebrahim Azizi, and Hadis Pakbaten, Accident is a co-production between Panahi’s native Iran, France, and Luxembourg. Panahi has drawn headlines in recent years due to conflicts with the Iranian government including arrests. While his works are banned in his homeland, his filmography has drawn acclaim everywhere else and this is no exception. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% with Metacritic at 88.
Either France or Luxembourg could submit Accident as their pick for International Feature Film at the Oscars. If the former doesn’t, the latter almost certainly would. The French have seen lots of their selections win or be nominated. Luxembourg would be vying for its first ever nominee. I also wouldn’t discount Panahi contending in Director and Original Screenplay. If a combination of those nods occurred, Best Picture is not off the table. After all, four of the last five Palme recipients have made final cut in the biggest category of them all. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Before to its domestic debut in August, Honey Don’t! dropped at Cannes for a midnight screening. The crime comedy is Ethan Coen and wife Tricia Cooke’s follow-up to last year’s Drive-Away Dolls. It also stars Margaret Qualley with a supporting cast including Aubrey Plaza, Charlie Day, and Chris Evans.
Marking Ethan’s second narrative work sans brother Joel (and with Cookie co-scripting), Don’t! mostly arrived with a shrug in France. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 54% with Metacritic at 47. That’s below the respective 63/56 ratings for Dolls. Coen’s “first” picture never came close to being an awards contender and this won’t either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
It’s been three weeks since I’ve updated my predictions for the 98th Academy Awards and a little thing called the Cannes Film Festival has happened since then. The French extravaganza has become increasingly important when figuring out your eventual Oscar ballots. To what extent? Last year’s winner Anora premiered there and took the Palme d’Or while fellow nominees Emilia Pérez and The Substance were also unveiled. In 2023, Anatomy of a Fall‘s Palme victory translated to a BP nomination while The Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon were also on the slate. 2022 Palme recipient Triangle of Sadness was part of the Academy’s BP ten while Elvis and Top Gun: Maverick premiered out of competition. You get the idea.
This year’s proceedings bestowed top prize to Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. And while a Palme d’Or certainly increases a picture’s chances in BP, I’m not ready to vault it into the Oscar top 10. As for the Grand Prix winner (essentially runner-up), I already had Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value in my ten and the Cannes premiere solidified that projection.
There were performances that gained momentum like Value’s quadrology of Renate Reinsve, Stellan Skarsgård, Elle Fanning, and Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass. Same goes for Jennifer Lawrence in Die, My Love and Cannes Best Actor Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent, who goes from unranked to my top 5.
Per usual, there were movies whose awards consideration hopes faded. That list includes The History of Sound, Alpha, Eddington, and The Phoenician Scheme.
Yet for all the Cannes chatter, my new #1 in BP has nothing to do with that event. I’ve had Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt slotted atop that chart over the last few weeks. Truth be told, that’s plain ole guesswork since it has yet to screen. I’m replacing it with Ryan Coogler’s vampire tale Sinners, the box office phenomenon that opened in April. Do I think it’s going to win BP? Probably not though it’s obviously far too early for that call. I do think that it and Sentimental Value (also rising) are the two pics that have been viewed that will not miss the cut.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sinners (Previous Ranking: 3) (+2)
2. After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sentimental Value (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Wicked: For Good (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Jay Kelly (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Hamnet (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 10) (+1)
10. The Life of Chuck (PR: 9) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
11. One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 13) (+1)
13. Bugonia (PR: 12) (-1)
14. It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
16. Frankenstein (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Sound of Falling (PR: Not Ranked)
18. The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 17) (-1)
19. No Other Choice (PR: 15) (-4)
20. Die, My Love (PR: 16) (-4)
21. Ann Lee (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Rental Family (PR: 22) (E)
23. F1 (PR: 21) (-2)
24. The Smashing Machine (PR: 23) (-1)
25. Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Highest 2 Lowest
Michael – the Michael Jackson biopic is reportedly moving to 2026
Is This Thing On?
Alpha
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Andrew Patterson, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Kieber Mendonça Filho, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Scott Cooper, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 14) (E)
15. James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Park Chan-wook, No Other Choice
Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt (PR: 1) (E)
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Jennifer Lawrence, Die, My Love (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emma Stone, Bugonia (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Tessa Thompson, Hedda (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emma Mackey, Ella McCay (PR: 11) (+1)
11. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great (PR: 9) (-2)
12. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 12) (E)
13. Amy Adams, At the Sea (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Lucy Liu, Rosemead (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Margot Robbie, A Big Bold Beautiful Journey
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme (PR: 1) (E)
2. Jeremy Allen White, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 3) (+1)
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Matthew McConaughey, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another (PR: 6) (E)
7. Michael B. Jordan, Sinners (PR: 7) (E)
8. Jesse Plemons, Bugonia (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Daniel Day-Lewis, Anemone (PR: 9) (E)
10. Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest (PR: Not Ranked – moved from supporting)
11. Colin Farrell, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine (PR: 12) (E)
13. Willem Dafoe, Late Fame (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Matthew McConaughey, The Lost Bus (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Paul Mescal, Hamnet (moved to supporting)
Jaafar Jackson, Michael
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Andrew Scott, Pressure
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman (PR: 8) (E)
9. Hailee Steinfeld, Sinners (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleass, Sentimental Value (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Regina Hall, One Battle After Another (PR: 11) (E)
12. Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Emily Watson, Hamnet (PR: 13) (E)
14. Tilda Swinton, The Ballad of a Small Player (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Greta Lee, Late Fame
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (PR: 1) (E)
2. Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt (PR: 2) (E)
3. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead actor)
7. Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another (PR: 8) (E)
9. Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Robert Pattinson, Die, My Love (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Stephen Graham, Deliver Me from Nowhere (PR: Not Ranked)
Fresh off romancing Nicole Kidman via unconventional methods in Babygirl, Harris Dickinson makes his feature-length writing and directing debut with Urchin. Frank Dillane is an unhoused Brit trying reenter society. The supporting cast includes Megan Northam and Amr Waked. While distribution is being worked out, it has been unveiled at Cannes.
Critics are complimentary of what they see with Dickinson’s work. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 100% with 77 on Metacritic. Dillane took the French festival’s prize for Best Actor in the Un Certain Regard section. For those unfamiliar, that’s not the main competition where Wagner Moura was victorious for The Secret Agent.
Nevertheless the recognition increases Dillane’s opportunity for a campaign. I’m not sure if Oscar will be on the table. Yet I do feel Urchin could play in several races at BAFTA including Best Actor, Outstanding British Film, and Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
In their latest and supposedly final entry in the franchise, Tom Cruise and Christopher McQuarrie choose to extend their mission. Not only does Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning sport the longest running time of the eight features (170 minutes), there’s extra characters to keep up with. You’ll need to extend your knowledge of previous installments for certain plot points and surprise cameos to properly land.
For all the extra padding, the main storyline is not complicated. Kicking off a couple of months after predecessor Dead Reckoning (this was originally Dead Reckoning – Part Two), Cruise’s IMF agent Ethan Hunt and team are still trying to stop The Entity. That’s an AI program whose algorithms equal world destruction, including scenarios where nations turn their nuclear arsenals against one another. Ethan’s Mission buddies include vets Luther (Ving Rhames) and Benji (Simon Pegg) as well as master thief Grace (Hayley Atwell), assassin turned asset Paris (Pom Klementieff), and Theo (Greg Tarzan Davis). That trio were all first seen in Dead Reckoning. Theo is the former partner of Jasper (Shea Whigham) from Dead Reckoning, who doesn’t trust Ethan and is by the side of Henry Czerny’s CIA Director Kittridge.
This whole review could be a rundown of the players in the potential global endgame. Angela Bassett from sixth feature Fallout was Deputy Director of the CIA in that one and is now POTUS. Familiar faces including Hannah Waddingham, Nick Offerman and Janet McTeer are part of her inner circle. I didn’t anticipate Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire being a part of this write-up, but it suffered from too many characters and so does this. That’s the first time I’d say that about a Mission movie. President Bassett and her band of character acting advisors could have been written out entirely and we’d have a leaner viewing to show for it. On the other hand, Tramell Tillman makes the most of his brief role as a submarine commander.
The main human villain continues to be Entity liaison Gabriel (Esai Morales). He shares a checkered past dating back thirty years with Ethan. That was an underdeveloped plot point in Dead Reckoning and it is here. Gabriel is not one of the memorable antagonists in this series.
These Mission‘s have leaned into the stunt work from #4 Ghost Protocol to present. Cruise and McQuarrie’s dedication to coming up with tremendous action set pieces revolves around an underwater task (like in 2015’s Rogue Nation) and another in the skies (reminiscent of Fallout but with older timey aircrafts). That’s not to say these sequences are derivative of what we’ve witnessed before. They’re both excellent with the aquatic part providing white knuckling claustrophobic thrills and the flight acrobatics offering its own delights.
So while Final Reckoning has its defects, the highlights continue to make it a franchise each is worthy of recommendation (and yes I mean Mission: Impossible2 too). Some callbacks to earlier pics are sharper than others. Without spoiling them, a minor character from a major scene in part 1 coming back is fun. Another character’s family tree connection to a former Ethan associate feels more like a stunt. Speaking of stunts, Cruise continues to wow us with his insistence on keeping it real in a storyline about artificiality attempting domination. This might be the finale. I’ll trust him if he changes his mind.
No one can do Cannes like Neon. The indie film production company has ruled the French festival for six years straight when it comes to the Palme d’Or winner. That list consists of Parasite, Titane, Triangle of Sadness, Anatomy of a Fall, and Anora. The first and last movies in that quintet went onto win Best Picture at the Oscars with Triangle and Anatomy nabbing nominations.
Neon once again had contenders to spare at this year’s competition and many assumed the grand prize would go to Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. That acclaimed family drama immediately established itself as an Oscar contender. Yet the Cannes jury (headed by Juliette Binoche) instead chose another Neon property in Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident. It marks another festival triumph for the Iranian filmmaker. His 2000 feature The Circle took top honors in Venice while 2015’s Taxi was awarded best of at the Berlin Fest. Accident now enters the conversation for a BP mention from the Academy and it certainly is a major contender for International Feature Film.
As for the more favored Value, it settled for the Grand Prix designation which is basically runner-up (it went to BP nominee The Zone of Interest in 2023). As mentioned, Neon has high hopes for its future in the coming months.
The Jury Prize (which Emilia Pérez took last time around) was shared between Spanish/French coproduction Sirât from Oliver Laxe and Mascha Schilinski’s German generational tale Sound of Falling (which is also a sturdy hopeful in IFF).
Another major player for Neon is The Secret Agent, the 1970s set Brazilian political thriller. Kieber Mendonça Filho received the Director trophy while Wagner Moura is Best Actor. Look for Agent to have a potential presence in IFF while Moura’s lead campaign could be a real threat for Academy inclusion.
Nadia Melliti is your Best Actress for the French coming-of-age drama The Little Sister. The young actress emerged over heavy hitter Jennifer Lawrence from Die, My Love. Nevertheless Lawrence did strengthen her shot at a fifth Oscar play months down the road.
Some had pegged Richard Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague (which recounts the shooting of French classic Breathless) for some Riviera prizes, but it wasn’t to be. Other high profile premieres not found among the victors are Iranian drama Woman and Child (where Parinaz Izadyar was considered viable in Actress), Wes Anderson’s The Phoenician Scheme, and Julia Ducournau’s Titane follow-up Alpha.
Keep an eye on the blog as I continue to write individual posts for movies screened at Cannes. I hadn’t even gotten to Accident yet! As for next year, look to see what Neon’s backing when figuring out the favorites…
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