Michael B. Jordan reunites with his Creed and Black Panther director Ryan Coogler on April 18th with Sinners. The vampire tale with an original script from the auteur casts Jordan in dual roles with Hailee Steinfeld, Miles Caton, Jack O’Connell, Wunmi Mosako, Jayme Lawson, Omar Benson Miller, Li Jun Li, and Delroy Lindo providing support.
Reviews are impressive with 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 83 Metacritic. With an Easter release, the forecast is that Sinners takes in $35-40 million for its start. The R rating might slightly limit its potential though that could be negligible. Given the high profile re-teaming of star and filmmaker and buzz that should build considering the critical reaction, I think it might exceed expectations.
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take in the supporting fields and they can be found here:
We arrive at Best Actor. When I gave you my first picks in April of 2024, I correctly picked two of the eventual nominees with Colman Domingo in Sing Sing and Ralph Fiennes for Conclave. Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice) was listed in Other Possibilities. At that early juncture, the eventual winner Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) and his probable runner-up Timothée Chalamet (A Complete Unknown) weren’t on the radar.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in supporting. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. For example, one year ago, Chalamet’s work as Bob Dylan was not expected to come out in 2024.
This premiere post projects a second nom in a row for Mr. Chalamet as well as return engagements for past winners George Clooney (a Supporting victory 20 years ago for Syriana) and Matthew McConaughey (lead for 2013’s Dallas Buyers Club). Unlike most prognosticators, I have Leonardo DiCaprio on the outside looking in for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actress up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR BEST ACTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
After a record breaking start, A Minecraft Movie should easily repeat in first position at the box office. Yet there’s a handful of newcomers jockeying for slots 2-6. We have the faith-based animated tale The King of Kings, Rami Malek’s spy thriller The Amateur, Blumhouse thriller Drop, Alex Garland’s Iraqi Freedom drama Warfare, and episodes 6-8 of the Christian show The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quintet here:
Based on the best selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie achieved the best opening for a picture based on a video game (more on that below). I’m estimating a sophomore drop between 50-55% and that should put it somewhere in the mid 70s-low 80s.
A report surfaced today that The King of Kings has already taken in approximately $8 million in pre-sales. That’s surprising, but Angel Studios has certainly exceeded projections before via Sound of Freedom. A low 20s performance would easily put it in the runner-up spot.
After that it gets tricky. The Amateur, Warfare, and Drop could all open similarly in the $7-11 million range. I’ve got them placing in the order of the previous sentence with The Chosen in sixth.
Here’s how I have it shaking out:
1. A Minecraft Movie
Predicted Gross: $77.9 million
2. The King of Kings
Predicted Gross: $21.4 million
3. The Amateur
Predicted Gross: $11.9 million
4. Warfare
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. Drop
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
6. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3
Predicted Gross: $5.5 million
Box Office Results (April 4-6)
The box office got a much needed jolt as A Minecraft Movie kicked off well above forecasts. With $162.7 million, it is 2025’s largest start thus far and, as mentioned, the highest video game adapted feature in history. The previous record was held by 2023’s The Super Mario Bros. Movie with $146 million. I was way off with a prediction of only $92.5 million. With a less than expected B+ Cinemascore, it should fall further than the 37% that Mario dropped in its second weekend. Yet any way you cut it, this is a fantastic result for Warner Bros.
A Working Man with Jason Statham slid to second with $7.3 million, slightly under my $8 million call. The action thriller has made $27 million after ten days.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 placed third with $6.9 million, not quite matching my $7.8 million estimate. Episodes 3-5 of the popular program made a little more than half of the nearly $12 million achieved by Part 1. Per above, diminishing returns should continue with Part 3.
Disney dud Snow White was fourth with $5.9 million (I said $6.7 million). The troubling three-week tally is $77 million.
Horror flick The Woman in the Yard was fifth and I incorrectly had it outside the high five. With $4.5 million, the two-week total is $16 million.
I had Part 1 of the The Chosen in fifth with $5.2 million, but it plummeted 84% to seventh with $1.8 million for $17 million overall.
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my take on Supporting Actor and it can be found here:
We move to Supporting Actress. When I gave you my first picks in 2024, it yielded one eventual nominee and that’s Isabella Rossellini for Conclave. The eventual winner Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) as well as Monica Barbaro (A Complete Unknown), Ariana Grande (Wicked), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), were not identified at this early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actresses listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actress. And there will be movies we’re not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar. Last year in April 2024, I had Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) slotted in Supporting Actress in Other Possibilities. She ended up going lead and nabbing a nod.
This premiere posts projects Erivo’s costar Ariana Grande will be a repeat nominee for Wicked: For Good. I’m also forecasting that Gwyneth Paltrow will return to the awards mix over a quarter century behind her Shakespeare in Love Actress victory.
Here’s the first snapshot with Best Actor up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Angelina LookingGlass, The Rivals of Amziah King
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Other Possibilities:
Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
Taken from his real life experiences fighting in the Iraq War, Ray Mendoza co-directs Warfare which releases April 11th. The other filmmaker behind the camera is Alex Garland in his follow-up to Civil War. D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai plays Mendoza with a supporting cast including Will Poulter, Cosmo Jarvis, Joseph Quinn, Kit Connor, Finn Bennett, Taylor John Smith, Michael Gandolfini, and Charles Melton.
The A24 release (which also distributed Civil War) is one of a handful of pics next weekend looking to gross around $10 million, give or take. Reviews for Warfare are strong with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 78 Metacritic. Yet I don’t see this approaching the $25 million that Civil over-indexed at during the same April frame last year.
A higher than expected veteran/action fans turnout could push this up beyond my forecast, but I’ll say this falls under $10 million.
And we are off to the races with my first Oscar predictions for the 98th Academy Awards.
We are just over a month removed from the 97th ceremony so let us begin some ridiculously early speculation! These are my inaugural glimpses at the four acting derbies, Director, and Picture. They will unfold on the blog over the next few days.
It begins with Supporting Actor. When I gave you my first picks in 2024, it yielded one eventual nominee. That happened to be the winner with Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. Under the 10 other possibilities, I correctly called another contender in Culkin’s Succession costar Jeremy Strong (The Apprentice). Yura Borisov (Anora), Edward Norton (A Complete Unknown), and Guy Pearce (The Brutalist) were not identified at this early juncture.
Let’s get some caveats out of the way… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Actors listed here could end up being campaigned in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actor. And there will be movies were not even anticipating that will rise up with performances currently not on the radar.
This premiere post projects that Colman Domingo will earn his third nod in as many years after lead actor attempts for Rustin and Sing Sing as troubled Jackson family patriarch Joseph in Michael. We could also see Star Wars legend Mark Hamill nab a slot for Toronto Film Festival Audience winner The Life of Chuck and Adam Sandler see his first recognition for Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly.
Here’s the first snapshot with Supporting Actress up next!
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTOR AT THE 98TH ACADEMY AWARDS
Episodes 6-8 of the faith-based show’s 5th season with a devoted following hits multiplexes on April 11th in The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3. With Jonathan Roumie starring as Jesus, other cast members include Shahar Isaac, Elizabeth Tabish, Paras Patel, and Noah James.
This is the third frame in a row where installments have played theatrically. Part 1 scored a better than anticipated premiere of nearly $12 million. Part 2‘s grosses aren’t finalized but appear to be coming in with approximately $7 million.
In this pre-Easter frame, Part 3 sees direct competition via animated The King of Kings. Some viewers may also wait to watch eps 6-8 when the entire season is packaged together over the holiday. Nevertheless I’ll say it falls slightly under its predecessor.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3 opening weekend prediction: $5.5 million
Blogger’s Note (04/07): Deadline reports that Kings is already seeing nearly $8 million in pre-sales four days before its debut. Angel Studios is employing a marketing strategy which includes kids receiving a free ticket to screenings with the family. This is causing me to raise my projection from $11.4 million to a sizzling $21.4 million.
Angel Studios, which had an unexpectedly massive hit with Sound of Freedom in 2023, has witnessed mixed returns for subsequent releases. The faith-based outlet goes the animation route on April 11th via The King of Kings. Based on a children’s book, it involves Charles Dickens (voiced by Kenneth Branagh) narrating the life of Jesus (Oscar Isaac). Other performers behind the mic include Uma Thurman, Mark Hamill, Roman Griffin Davis, Forest Whitaker, and Ben Kingsley.
Will Christians and kiddos turn out? Timed for a pre-Easter premiere, it does have direct competition from The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 3, the popular show which will broadcast the final 3 episodes for season 5. There’s also the sophomore frame for A Minecraft Movie which caters to family crowds.
Like the other new releases next weekend, I think this will hover around $10 million. I’ll project it gets a little over that and it might have a heavenly hold over the holiday in its second go-round.
The King of Kings opening weekend prediction: $21.4 million
Drop drops on April 11th and it’s a thriller from Christopher Landon, known best for making horror pics Happy Death Day and Freaky. Meghann Fahy and Brandon Sklenar headline with Violett Beane, Jacob Robinson, and Reed Diamond providing support.
First screened at South by Southwest last month, early reviews are solid with 89% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 72 Metacritic. Despite the encouraging notices, I suspect this might generate more business if it fell in the director’s scary movie oeuvre. Like other releases out next weekend, this may fall a bit under $10 million or perhaps a tad over. I’m going with the under on this one.
Based on a 1981 novel by Robert Littell that was turned into a movie starring John Savage and Christopher Plummer, 20th Century Studios releases The Amateur on April 11th. The spy thriller is directed by James Hawes with Bohemian Rhapsody Oscar winner Rami Malek headlining. Costars include Rachel Brosnahan (about to appear in the eagerly anticipated Superman), Caitriona Balfe, Jon Bernthal, Michael Stuhlbarg, Holt McCallany, Julianne Nicholson, Adrian Martinez, and Laurence Fishburne.
Once fashioned as a starring vehicle for Hugh Jackman, The Amateur has less power to capitalize on and seemingly scant buzz. This may struggle to reach $10 million, but I’ll project that it just gets there.
The Amateur opening weekend prediction: $11.9 million
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