Warner Bros brings some of their classic animated characters to the silver screen on March 14th when The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie opens. Marking the directorial debut of Pete Browngardt, the sci-fi comedic adventures features the voices of Eric Bauza as Daffy Duck and Porky Pig), Candi Milo, Peter MacNicol, Fred Tatasciore, Laraine Newman, and Wayne Knight.
Earth actually received a limited Los Angeles run in December to qualify for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars (it did not receive a nomination). The studio hasn’t done much work promoting its release. Despite solid word-of-mouth from the West Coast screenings, WB seems to be dumping this. I think anything over $5 million would be a surprise and lower single digits may be all, folks.
The Day the Earth Blew Up: A Looney Tunes Movie opening weekend prediction: $3.8 million
Jack Quaid is the unconventional titular character who feels no pain in Novocaine next weekend. The action comedy comes from directors Dan Berk and Robert Olsen with Amber Midthunder, Ray Nicholson, Jacob Batalon, Betty Gabriel, and Matt Walsh in the supporting cast.
Critics are mostly satisfied with what they’re seeing. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 89% with Metacritic at a more telling 68. This is not a feature made for the Academy’s microscope, but it’s worth entertaining whether Quaid could play at the Golden Globes in Best Actor in a Musical or Comedy (similar to Ryan Reynolds from Deadpool).
My guess is that Novocaine will not be on that awards body’s radar either several months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
What does an astronomical $320 million budget get you in Hollywood these days? Apparently a mid-March Netflix release and a heap of critical derision. Meet The Electric State, a comedic sci-fi adventure hitting the streamer March 14th from Anthony and Joe Russo of Avengers: Infinity War and Endgame fame. The human cast for the ultra expensive flick includes Millie Bobby Brown, Chris Pratt, Ke Huy Quan, Stanley Tucci, Woody Norman, Giancarlo Esposito, and Jason Alexander. An equally impressive voice cast includes Woody Harrelson, Anthony Mackie, Brian Cox, Jenny Slate, Alan Tudyk, Hank Azaria, Colman Domingo, and Rob Gronkowski.
It is worth noting that the Russo’s follow-ups to the Avengers juggernauts are the unimpressively reviewed Cherry and The Gray Man. Yet this appears to be receiving the worst of it with 23% on Rotten Tomatoes and 30 on Metacritic. The term “wasted potential” pops up more than once. Only the visual effects would be a possibility for awards attention and the Electric buzz might sink that. This has much more viability at the Razzies than with the Academy. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Steven Soderbergh unveils his second 2025 picture in weeks when Black Bag opens on March 14th. The spy thriller is led by Cate Blanchett and Michael Fassbender with Marisa Abela, Tom Burke, Naomie Harris, Regé-Jean Page, and Pierce Brosnan in support.
The Focus Features flick is generating impressive critical support with 96% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s some of the best recent reviews in the prolific director’s long career. Bag‘s buzz could mean this over performs. If this reaches $10 million, that would be quite an accomplishment. I don’t think it gets there, but it should certainly outpace the $3.3 million that Soderbergh’s January predecessor Presence earned out of the gate.
Black Bag opening weekend prediction: $7.3 million
Paramount hopes Novocaine shows some teeth at the box office when it opens wide on March 14th. Jack Quaid headlines as a bank exec with a condition where he feels no pain. This turns him into a reluctant superhero during a hostage situation. Amber Midthunder, Ray Nicholson, Jacob Batalon, Betty Gabriel, and Matt Walsh costar with Dan Berk and Robert Olsen directing.
Any hope of Deadpool size grosses can be easily forgotten as the marketing campaign isn’t too robust. With quiet buzz, the real question is whether this manages to top $10 million for its start. I suspect it may not despite a reported debut on 3200 screens.
Novocaine opening weekend prediction: $9.8 million
Arriving just weeks after his well-reviewed haunted house flick Presence, the prolific Steven Soderbergh helms the spy thriller Black Bag. Out March 14th, David Koepp handles screenplay duties (he also scripted Presence) with eight-time nominee and two-time Academy winner Cate Blanchett and two-time nominee Michael Fassbender starring. The supporting cast includes Marisa Abela, Tom Burke, Naomie Harris, Regé-Jean Page, and Pierce Brosnan.
Critics are digging what they’re finding in Bag. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 95% with Metacritic at 86. Blanchett, Fassbender, and Brosnan (in what’s said to be a small but memorable role) are getting kudos as are the screenplay and cinematography.
That said, Bag probably isn’t an awards play for Focus Features despite the impressive reviews thus far. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Mickey 17, Bong Joon-ho’s follow=up to his Oscar juggernaut Parasite, looks to rule the charts this weekend and end the three-week reign of Captain America: Brave New World. We also have Rule Breakers from Angel Studios and you can peruse my prediction posts on the newcomers here:
With a forecast in the upper teens (which isn’t oh so fine), I’m not as optimistic as some others on Mickey 17. The sci-fi satire with Robert Pattinson should benefit from the Joon-ho goodwill, but I’m not convinced that equates to a gross north of $20 million.
As for Rule Breakers with Phoebe Waller-Bridge, lower to mid single digits could place it in fourth or fifth with third being the best case scenario if it exceeds my projection.
Captain America: Brave New World should slide to second with a low to mid 40s dip while Last Breath and The Monkey populate the remainder of the top five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Mickey 17
Predicted Gross: $17.9 million
2. Captain America: Brave New World
Predicted Gross: $8.4 million
3. Last Breath
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
4. Rule Breakers
Predicted Gross: $3.7 million
5. The Monkey
Predicted Gross: $3.4 million
Box Office Results (February 28-March 2)
It was a three-peat for the MCU’s Captain America: Brave New World with $14.8 million added to its coffers. That’s ahead of my $11.8 million guesstimate as the superhero tale has taken in $163 million with $200 million in its domestic sights (though it might fall a little short of that).
Survival thriller Last Breath starring Woody Harrelson and Simu Liu was runner-up with $7.8 million and that tops my glass half empty prediction of $4.8 million. That’s at the better end of its anticipated range.
The Monkey was third in its sophomore outing with $6.4 million, a tad ahead of my $5.7 million call. The horror comedy stands at $24 million after ten days.
Paddington in Peru was fourth with $4.5 million (I said $3.9 million) for $31 million overall after three weeks.
Dog Man rounded out the top five with $4.2 million (I went with $3.7 million). The five-week tally is $84 million as it will try and reach $100 million stateside.
Rule Breakers is the latest inspirational drama from Angel Studios which casts Phoebe Waller-Bridge as a teacher guiding Afghan women. Bill Guttentag directs with Ali Fazal, Fahim Fazli, and Nikohl Boosheri among the costars.
Shot for a reported $8 million, Rule hopes to break into the consciousness of the faith-based audience that its studio caters to. That probably means an opening weekend in the lower to mid single digits. Angel’s last three efforts were Bonhoeffer (which started with $5.5 million), Homestead ($6 million), and Brave the Dark with just $2.3 million.
I think this should go higher than Dark while not reaching the debuts of the other two.
Rule Breakers opening weekend prediction: $3.7 million
After months of speculation and a whole lotta blog posts covering the various competitions, the 97th Academy Awards is now in the history books. It was a history making night for Anora maker Sean Baker. His four statues tie for the most Oscars received in a single evening. He’s in iconic company. The other individual to achieve it is Walt Disney.
Anora was the story of the night with five victories. I went 17 for 20 in my predictions and the three I missed is where I didn’t pick Anora. I correctly called it in Best Picture and Original Screenplay (wins 1 and 2 for Baker). I incorrectly selected Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) over Baker in director (win 3). Conclave was my wrong pick for Film Editing when went to Baker (win 4). Mikey Madison’s work in the title role was my third misstep as she took gold over Demi Moore (The Substance). Just as Everything Everywhere All at Once dominated the show two years back and Oppenheimer did so a year ago, it was Anora‘s night to shine.
The ceremony itself only ran about 15 minutes over with first-time host Conan O’Brien doing a solid if unspectacular job at the helm. Cynthia Erivo and Ariana Grande kicked things off in soaring fashion with their performance of “Defying Gravity” from Wicked. That was a high point. A rather pointless 007 tribute was a bit of a head scratcher. Overall the show was fine with a heartfelt Gene Hackman tribute from Morgan Freeman being another memorable moment.
Let’s run down what I got right quickly. That includes the other three acting derbies as Adrien Brody (The Brutalist) is now a two-time Best Actor with Zoe Saldaña (Emilia Pérez) and Kieran Culkin (A Real Pain) completing their supporting sweeps.
Frankly, I didn’t think I’d pull off the hat trick of International Feature Film, Animated Feature, and Documentary Feature. I managed it with the respective winners I’m Still Here, Flow, and No Other Land.
Other than the aforementioned Film Editing, all other down the line contests were correct calls: Cinematography and Original Score to The Brutalist; Costume Design and Production Design for Wicked; The Substance in Makeup and Hairstyling; “El Mal” as Original Song for Emilia Pérez; Sound and Visual Effects to Dune: Part Two.
The win counts were as follows for the following pictures:
5 Wins
Anora
3 Wins
The Brutalist
2 Wins
Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Wicked
1 Win
Conclave, Flow, I’m Still Here, No Other Land, A Real Pain, The Substance
Now it’s time to shift focus to the 98th. So keep an eye on this blog for all the speculation that fits…
Dito Montiel directs the crime comedy Riff Raff, premiering this weekend from Roadside Attractions. Jennifer Coolidge, Ed Harris (pulling double duty with My Dead Friend Zoe out this frame), Gabrielle Union, Lewis Pullman, Pete Davidson, and Bill Murray make up the impressive cast.
It originally debuted at the Toronto Film Festival last fall to mixed notices. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 55% with 45 on Metacritic. This certainly isn’t an Academy play, but better reviews could’ve put this in contention at the Globes next year in the Musical or Comedy derbies. The so-so buzz eliminates that possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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