The numbers aren’t final yet, but the first two episodes of The Chosen‘s fifth season (subtitled Last Supper) appear poised to place third at the box office this weekend with around $12 million. That’s a better than anticipated gross.
A week after those initial shows, episodes 3-5 will be in multiplexes on April 4th. Jonathan Roumie, Shahar Isaac, Elizabeth Tabish, Paras Patel, and Noah James are among cast members. It stands to reason that the theatrical outputs should experience diminishing returns. Episodes 6-8 will roll out on April 11th. I don’t anticipate this middle batch to top $10 million, but it should at least bring in half the cash that preceded it.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million
After being screened at the Toronto Film Festival in September, Fleur Fortuné’s sci-fi debut The Assessment hit stateside multiplexes last weekend. Elizabeth Olsen and Himesh Patel play a couple in a near future where prospective parents must be tested to raise children. Alicia Vikander, who won a Supporting Actress Academy Award a decade ago for The Danish Girl, plays the title role. Indira Varma, Nicholas Pinnock, and Minnie Driver offer support.
Distributed by Magnolia Pictures, The Assessment is at 85% on Rotten Tomatoes with a weaker 64 Metacritic. It was released across the pond and at the British Independent Film Awards, received three nods including Vikander in Lead Actress, Debut Screenwriter, and Production Design. Don’t expect this to blossom into a major contender in the U.S. with the Academy, though the Indie Spirits could assess it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Dramedy Bob Trevino Likes It won the Audience Award at last year’s South by Southwest and is now in limited release after taking crowdpleaser prizes at other festivals including San Diego. Tracie Laymon directs and writes the indie (with distribution from Roadside Attractions) starring Barbie Ferreira, John Leguizamo, French Stewart, and Rachel Bay Jones.
Critics are saying it hits the emotional mark with 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 76 Metacritic. As for Cinemascore, it stands at a rare A+. The familial tale might be too small for the Academy to take notice. However, the picture and the cast and particularly the autobiographical screenplay could get some attention from the Gotham Awards or the Indie Spirits. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
A year after Civil War, Alex Garland is back with his follow-up Warfare on April 11th. This time he’s co-directing with Ray Mendoza, an Iraq War Navy SEAL recounting his own experiences in that theater. The cast includes D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (as Mendoza), Will Poulter, Cosmo Jarvis, Kit Connor, Finn Bennett, Taylor John Smith, Michael Gandolfini, Joseph Quinn, and Charles Melton.
At just over 90 minutes, Warfare is particularly being lauded for its technical achievements. The Rotten Tomatoes score is at 94% with a 78 Metacritic. I don’t see this as a Best Picture play. Some thought Civil War could sneak in last year though its momentum never truly materialized.
Where this could contend is Best Sound as reviews continuously praise that aspect. Warfare could join other 21st century genre titles like The Hurt Locker, Zero Dark Thirty, Lone Survivor, American Sniper, 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi, Hacksaw Ridge, Dunkirk, 1917, and All Quiet on the Western Front in the auditory field. It’s early in the game, but don’t be surprised if it does (though it’s worth noting Civil War didn’t make that cut). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (04/03): On the eve of its premiere, a very significant update as Minecraft tracking is going through the roof. I’m upping my projection from $57.5 million to a whopping $92.5 million (!)
Based on the best-selling video game of all time, A Minecraft Movie hopes to build upon its popular IP and expand it to multiplexes. Jared Hess, maker of Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre, directs Jason Momoa, Jack Black, Danielle Brooks, Emma Myers, Sebastian Hansen, and Jennifer Coolidge.
The fantastical adventure comes armed with a reported $150 million price tag and an initial trailer that left some fans cold. Once considered a cinematic graveyard at the box office thanks to 90s duds such as Super Mario Bros. and Double Dragon, fortunes for gaming adaptations have turned around in the past few years. Sonic the Hedgehog and sequels, Pokémon Detective Pikachu, The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s are recent examples.
Minecraft isn’t expected to approach the $146 million that Mario opened with in 2023. A more realistic goal is the $60 million that Sonic the Hedgehog 3 premiered with last year. I’ll give it a little under that.
A Minecraft Movie opening weekend prediction: $92.5 million
For my The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 2 prediction, click here:
A quartet of newcomers hope to populate spots 2-5 this weekend with Snow White looking to cling to first place after a muted debut. We have the Jason Statham action pic A Working Man, Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega in the horror comedy Death of a Unicorn, more serious scary movie The Woman in the Yard with Danielle Deadwyler, and the first two episodes of the popular faith-based program The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
Snow White had the lowest modern-day premiere for any of the Mouse House live-action adaptations (more on that below). To add insult to injury, its B+ Cinemascore grade is also the worst of the sub genre. The similarly performing Dumbo from 2019 plummeted 60% in its sophomore frame. I would expect a similar result for Snow White and that should mean a mid-teens gross.
That might keep it in first place as I have A Working Man in the low teens for a runner-up showing (it has an outside shot of being #1). I am placing Unicorn just below $10 million with Yard and Chosen both in the mid single digits. Considering the sad state of affairs at multiplexes financially, that should mean 80% of the high 5 is fresh product.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. Snow White
Predicted Gross: $16.4 million
2. A Working Man
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
3. Death of a Unicorn
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million
4. The Woman in the Yard
Predicted Gross: $6.7 million
5. The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
Box Office Results (March 21-23)
Pick your cliched headline – it was a sleepy opening… it was a ho-hum debut…
They apply to Snow White which, as mentioned, experienced the weakest unveiling of any Disney live-action rendering at $42.2 million. That’s below my $49.6 million take and it’s a pretty impossible spin job for its studio to attempt. Some articles have correctly pointed out that Mufasa: The Lion King premiered to lower numbers but legged out nicely. The difference is that Mufasa rolled out over the holidays where drop-offs are insignificant. I don’t expect that to be the case here.
As I suspected, slots 2-6 were separated by just over a million bucks. That made it tricky to know where the pics would land. Black Bag stayed in second place with $4.2 million, on target with my $4 million prediction. Steven Soderbergh’s spy tale sits at $14 million after ten days.
Captain America: Brave New World was third with $4 million, in line with my $4.1 million call. The MCU entry is nearing $200 million with $192 million in the bank after six weeks.
Novocaine slid from 1st to 4th with $3.6 million, a tad below my $4.1 million projection. The two-week take is $15 million.
Mickey 17 rounded out the top five with $3.6 million. My estimate? $3.6 million! The three-week earnings are an underwhelming $40 million.
Finally, critically panned Robert De Niro (and Robert De Niro) Mob saga The Alto Knights was flat in sixth with $3.1 million (I said $3.7 million).
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 brings the first two episodes of the faith-based TV show to the big screen with Dallas Jenkins directing. The cast includes Jonathan Roumie as Jesus and Elizabeth Tabish as Mary Magdalene with Shahar Isaac, Paras Patel, and Noah James in support.
Back in November of 2022, the starting shows for season 3 took in an unexpectedly robust $8.7 million at multiplexes in its first weekend. For season 4 in February of 2024, the debut two installments brought in $7.3 million. I would estimate that returns for season 5 will slightly diminish in the mid single digits.
The Chosen: Last Supper – Part 1 opening weekend prediction: $6.4 million
Mimi Cave’s Holland premiered at South by Southwest earlier this month as it readies an Amazon Prime drop on March 27th. The tireless Nicole Kidman headlines the Midwestern set thriller (the title refers to the city in Michigan) with Gael Garcia Bernal, Matthew Macfadyen, Jude Hill, and Rachel Sennott in support.
Kidman’s previous project Babygirl did generate awards buzz, but she ended up missing out on a sixth Oscar nod. Holland is drawing plenty of negative notices with 36% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 45 Metacritic. Said to be the opposite of a crowd pleaser, don’t expect this to be on the Academy’s radar. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Danielle Deadwyler stars in The Woman in the Yard, the latest horror flick from Universal/Blumhouse. Reuniting the lead with her Carry-On director Jaume Collet-Serra, costars include Okwui Okpokwasili, Russell Hornsby, Peyton Jackson, and Estella Kahiha.
Coming in at a brisk 87 minutes, I still question whether genre fans will make the time for it. Some may opt for Death of a Unicorn, which opens against it. A best case scenario might be a gross just north of $10 million, similar to Talk to Me from 2022. Yet that pic had more buzz than this one. I’ll say mid to high single digits is where this lands.
The Woman in the Yard opening weekend prediction: $6.7 million
After being unveiled at South by Southwest earlier this month, A24’s Death of a Unicorn gallops into theaters March 28th. The latest chapter in the eat the rich comedy horror genre comes from writer/director Alex Scharfman with Paul Rudd and Jenna Ortega headlining. Costars include Will Poulter, Téa Leoni, and Richard E. Grant.
Critical reaction is mixed with 63% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 56 Metacritic. Better reviews could’ve bolstered the buzz. A debut in the neighborhood of Abigail ($10.2 million) is certainly feasible. There is competition from The Woman in the Yard (a more serious scary offering) that could keep genre fans away. I’ll say Unicorn falls under $10 million unless Ortega’s Wednesday fans turn out in larger force than I’m anticipating.
Death of a Unicorn opening weekend prediction: $8.8 million
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