Month: February 2025

Oscar Predictions: Train Dreams

Netflix is banking on Train Dreams logging some awards chatter after primarily positive reaction at Sundance. The period piece drama casts Joel Edgerton as a railroad worker traveling across the United States. Felicity Jones (currently vying for Supporting Actress in The Brutalist), Kerry Condon, and William H. Macy provide support.

Dreams is the latest screenplay from Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar (based on a novella by Denis Johnson). Bentley last directed Jockey in 2021 which probably came close to nabbing a Best Actor nod for Clifton Collins Jr. (who also costars here). Kwedar was behind the camera for Sing Sing where Colman Domingo is contending this year for the lead slot.

With 90% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 83 Metacritic, Netflix quickly snatched up distribution rights in Utah. Based on the buzz, they might give this a spirited campaign. That holds true particularly for Edgerton (who’s never been nominated) and the cinematography that is consistently being singled out. If Adapted Screenplay can be in play, BP attention could come along for the ride. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Peter Hujar’s Day

Critics are liking the hang for Peter Hujar’s Day out of Sundance, the latest feature from indie auteur Ira Sachs. The two-hander casts Ben Whishaw in the title role of the real-life photographer known for his work in the 1970s and 80s. Rebecca Hall is his writer friend.

Originally meant to be a short film, it still is definitionally at a brisk 76 minutes. This is Sachs’s follow-up to his acclaimed 2023 Passages, which collected four Independent Spirit Awards including Best Film and Mr. Whishaw in Supporting Actor.

Known to many moviegoers as Q from Daniel Craig’s 007 run (or the voice of Paddington), Whishaw is getting lots of Park City praise for his lead role. The pic itself stands at 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and 85 on Metacritic. Like Passages, I’d say this is more Indie Spirit friendly than Oscar. The eventual distributor might be wise to campaign in that space. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Twinless

James Sweeney directs, writes, and costars in Twinless which made serious waves at the Sundance Film Festival in recent days. Costarring Dylan O’Brien, Aisling Franciosi, Lauren Graham, and Chris Perfetti, the heartfelt comedy took the Audience Award in Park City. That’s a prize shared in recent years by Oscar players like Whiplash, Minari, and CODA.

With 100% on Rotten Tomatoes and 82 on Metacritic, this is one Sundance title that could still be talked about next awards season. Much like A Real Pain, the bulk of the buzz may go to Supporting Actor where O’Brien is drawing raves. Also like Pain, the original screenplay could generate some attention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscars – The Case of Dune: Part Two

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the first four features for BP and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The fifth is Dune: Part Two.

The Case for Dune: Part Two:

If the Academy wants to honor one of the most widely seen pics, Dune is second only to Wicked in that particular race. The sci-fi sequel stands at $714 million worldwide compared to Wicked‘s $718 million (and growing). Denis Villeneuve’s epic continuation of Frank Herbert’s novels made the BP cut at PGA, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes.

The Case Against Dune: Part Two:

The misses are more glaring. Dune‘s additional Academy nods (Cinematography, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects) bring its total to five compared to the original’s 10. For perspective, part one from 2021 won six golden guys. Villeneuve didn’t get in Best Director (like with its predecessor) and the screenplay isn’t honored. Beyond what the Academy did, Dune failed to get into the BAFTA derby and Villeneuve was snubbed at the Directors Guild (unlike what occurred three years ago).

The Verdict:

In my previous Case Of posts for Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, and Conclave, I’ve given them all at least a shot at taking the top prize. Dune: Part Two is the first entry where I don’t believe winning is a possibility.

My Case Of posts will continue with Emilia Pérez…

Oscars: The Case of Anora
Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown
Oscars: The Case of Conclave