Month: February 2025

36th PGA Awards Reaction: The Producers Anoint Anora

The Producers Guild of America (PGA) provided a weekend hat trick for Sean Baker’s Anora as it won their top award over my pick of The Brutalist. This is the same narrative that occurred Friday evening when it took Best Picture at the Critics Choice Awards over Brady Corbet’s epic immigrant drama. Also on Saturday night, Baker was selected as the Directors Guild of America recipient over Corbet. As discussed in the blog post recounting that ceremony, the DGA and Oscar’s Best Director nearly always match.

In one weekend, Anora became the Academy’s frontrunner for Best Picture. There’s no other logical way to look at it. With Emilia Pérez significantly weakened due to Karla Sofia Gascón’s recent controversies and A Complete Unknown, Conclave, and Wicked yet to grab any major BP precursors, Anora is elevated with CCA/PGA/DGA in a 48 hour period. Wicked still could win SAG in a couple of weeks and so could Conclave. I also feel the latter is a possibility for BP at BAFTA. The Brutalist is also a threat at the British equivalent of the Oscars. In other words, Best Picture isn’t over but Anora is your new leader (or continued leader if you had it in first). I have had The Brutalist in that position for months and that’s no longer the case.

As for the PGA’s other two categories, The Wild Robot is your Animated Theatrical Motion Picture while Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (not up at Oscar) is the documentary victor. I correctly called those two competitions.

Keep an eye on the blog throughout the coming days as I continue to post Case Of Oscar write-ups. I’ll also have BAFTA winner predictions up later this week!

77th Directors Guild of America Awards Reaction

As far as precursors go, it’s been a brutal weekend thus far for The Brutalist. At the Critics Choice Awards, the film’s sole victory was Adrien Brody in Actor. It lost the big race to Anora and, even more shockingly, Jon M. Chu took Director for Wicked over Brady Corbet.

At tonight’s Directors Guild of America Awards ceremony, this was the opportunity for Corbet to get back on track for what most prognosticators (including this one) figured would be a sweep over the season. The DGA’s main prize has matched Best Director at the Oscars 21 out of 24 times in the 21st century.

So what happened? Well, Anora went and altered Corbet’s narrative. Sean Baker is the winner and it makes what was considered a safe Oscar race to predict a tough one.

I correctly called the other two competitions as RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys) took the First-Time Feature prize while Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev are your Documentary filmmaking recipients for Porcelain War.

My PGA reaction will be rolling in soon, but the DGA made an unpredictable season even more so.

Oscars: The Case of Cynthia Erivo in Wicked

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered the BP contenders and they’re readily available for your perusing pleasure. Today is our initial entry in Best Actress and that’s Cynthia Erivo for Jon M. Chu’s Wicked.

Previous Acting Nominations:

Actress (Harriet, 2019) – lost to Renée Zellweger in Judy

The Case for Cynthia Erivo:

As the eventual Wicked Witch of the West, Erivo could achieve rare EGOT status (Emmy, Grammy, Oscar, Tony victories) if she wins her second acting Oscar nom behind 2019’s Harriet. She has run the table with noms at precursors including BAFTA, the Golden Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice. Of the five pics in contention, it is certainly the most popular with audiences at over $700 million worldwide.

The Case Against Cynthia Erivo:

She fell short to Demi Moore (The Substance) at the Globes and Critics Choice. It is thought that her costar Ariana Grande has a better shot to take gold in the supporting field.

The Verdict:

Several days ago, Erivo might’ve been considered fifth out of the five actresses in terms of winning chances. That last place designation now certainly belongs to Karla Sofia Gascón (Emilia Pérez), but that still means Erivo is fourth.

My Case Of posts will continue with the first hopeful in Best Actor and that’s Adrien Brody in The Brutalist…

Oscar Predictions: The Ballad of Wallis Island

Prior to its March 28th limited release stateside, The Ballad of Wallis Island landed at Sundance. The British comedy casts Tim Key as an accidental multi-millionaire who plots to reunite his favorite musicians (Tom Basden and Carey Mulligan) on his private island. Akemnji Ndifornyen and Sian Clifford costar. James Griffith, best known for TV production work on Black-ish and Grown-ish, directs.

Park City reaction praised Island as a heartwarming confection. With its spring release, I question whether Focus Features will make it a focus come awards time despite the 95% Rotten Tomatoes score and 76 Metacritic. Its best hope might be recognition at BAFTA where it could nab one of the 10 slots for Outstanding British Film. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

30th Critics’ Choice Awards Reaction

The 30th Critics’ Choice Awards aired this evening and this body had some tricks up their sleeve with some seriously surprising selections. Leading up to Best Picture, you would’ve been right to count out Sean Baker’s Anora. It had emerged victorious nowhere, even in the races where it was supposed to like Original Screenplay. I listed it as my runner-up to The Brutalist. Fun fact: this is your first CCA BP to not receive any other wins.

Let’s not start writing those Anora will take the Oscar BP columns. While it is certainly a possibility, just half of the previous 10 CCA BP recipients repeated with the Academy. If it manages to grab PGA tomorrow, it could rightfully become the soft frontrunner.

I went 13 for 21 overall in my picks. While Anora‘s sole win in BP was unexpected, the biggest shocker was easily in Director. Brady Corbet (The Brutalist) was widely anticipated to sweep through the season and then CCA went and named Jon M. Chu for Wicked. He’s not even nominated for the Oscar. When’s the last time the Critics’ pick wasn’t up for the Academy’s trophy? That would be Ben Affleck for Argo and before that, you must go back to 2002 when they gave it to Steven Spielberg for his double feature of Minority Report and Catch Me If You Can.

My against the odds selection was Mikey Madison (Anora) over Demi Moore in The Substance. I should’ve gone bigger with my Anora upset calls. Moore did get Actress just as with the Globes. In fact, all the acting winners are also Globe takers: Adrien Brody in The Brutalist for its sole prize tonight in Actor and supporting players Zoe Saldaña in Emilia Pérez and Kieran Culkin for A Real Pain. The Moore/Brody/Saldaña/Culkin combo could absolutely be the Oscar quartet and they are certainly the favorites.

As for other categories, here’s where I was right:

Conclave in Adapted Screenplay; Emilia Pérez as Foreign Language Film and The Wild Robot in Animated Feature; A Real Pain is Best Comedy though it tied with Deadpool & Wolverine (so I guess I was half right); Wicked in Costume Design and Production Design; The Substance for Hair & Makeup, Challengers for Original Score; “El Mal” from Pérez in Original Song; and Dune: Part Two for Visual Effects.

Where I went wrong:

The Substance scored an out of nowhere win over BP Anora in Original Screenplay. Maisy Stella (My Old Ass) is the Best Young Actor/Actress instead of Izaac Wang in Dídi. Conclave is Best Ensemble over Wicked. In Cinematography, it’s Nosferatu and not The Brutalist. Challengers took the Editing category and not Anora.

What’s it all mean for BP? The Brutalist could’ve solidified frontrunner status tonight and it didn’t. The fact that Anora didn’t win anywhere else? Confusing. And we do have 4 legit acting favorites. Let’s see if PGA and DGA can muddy the waters tomorrow…

Here’s the win total for the various pictures in contention

3 Wins

Emilia Pérez, The Substance, Wicked

2 Wins

Challengers, Conclave, A Real Pain

1 Win

Anora, The Brutalist, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, My Old Ass, Nosferatu, The Wild Robot

Oscars: The Case of Wicked

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered nine of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The final entry in this competition is Jon M. Chu’s Wicked.

The Case for Wicked:

If Best Picture were (ahem) a popularity contest, the adaptation of the iconic stage play would fly away with the gold. The worldwide tally is $722 million and counting and that’s just ahead of Dune: Part Two‘s global take. It tied for the second most Academy nominations at 10 (along with The Brutalist) contending in Actress (Cynthia Erivo), Supporting Actress (Ariana Grande), Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Original Score, Production Design, Sound, and Visual Effects. Precursor BP nods were achieved at the Globes, Critics Choice, and PGA and it’s also up for Ensemble at SAG.

The Case Against Wicked:

There are some key misses as BAFTA passed it by and it lost at the Globes in Best Film (Musical or Comedy) to Emilia Pérez (before recent controversy). Despite the double digits noms, the omissions for Chu’s direction and Adapted Screenplay are noteworthy. The voters could figure they can wait until part two coming later this year to honor it.

The Verdict:

Down the line victories in Costume Design, Production Design, and Sound in particular appear doable. I wouldn’t completely discount a Wicked BP win, but it’s a long shot. If it manages to take Ensemble at SAG, expect chatter to rise. I’d still be skeptical.

My Case Of Posts will continue with our first Best Actress hopeful and that’s Cynthia Erivo in Wicked…

Oscars: The Case of Anora
Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown
Oscars: The Case of Conclave
Oscars – The Case of Dune: Part Two
Oscars: The Case of Emilia Pérez
Oscars: The Case of I’m Still Here
Oscars: The Case of Nickel Boys
Oscars: The Case of The Substance

Oscars: The Case of The Substance

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It begins with the ten BP contenders and then alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five races. I’ve already covered eight of the BP contenders and if you missed them, they are linked at the bottom of the post. The next entry is The Substance from Coralie Fargeat.

The Case for The Substance:

Undoubtedly one of the buzziest (and bonkers) cinematic experiences of 2024, The Substance landed five nominations with Fargeat’s direction, Best Actress (Demi Moore), Original Screenplay, and Makeup and Hairstyling in the mix. Actress and Makeup and Hairstyling are particularly possible for victories. As far as precursors, BP noms were achieved at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and PGA.

The Case Against The Substance:

The Academy doesn’t typically hand out BP wins for the body horror genre. It might be a little too out there for some voting members. While its precursor performance was impressive, it missed the BP cut at BAFTA. The only two pics in the 21st century to miss BAFTA and take the top prize at the Oscars are 2004’s Million Dollar Baby and 2021’s CODA. It fell short to Emilia Pérez in the Musical or Comedy competition at the Globes.

The Verdict:

The Substance has the stuff to be an Oscar recipient next month, but not in BP.

My Case Of posts will continue with Wicked…

Oscars: The Case of Anora
Oscars: The Case of The Brutalist
Oscars: The Case of A Complete Unknown
Oscars: The Case of Conclave
Oscars – The Case of Dune: Part Two
Oscars: The Case of Emilia Pérez
Oscars: The Case of I’m Still Here
Oscars: The Case of Nickel Boys

Oscar Predictions: Bring Them Down

Christopher Andrews makes his directorial debut with the thriller Bring Them Down, out this weekend in limited fashion. Described as a grim and violent exercise, Down was first screened at Toronto last year (and then London) with Mubi handling distribution rights. Barry Keoghan and Christopher Abbott headline with Nora-Jane Noone, Paul Ready, Aaron Heffernan, and Colm Meany in support.

The 88% Rotten Tomatoes is tempered by the 59 on Metacritic. Plenty of kudos is going to the two leads, but the reaction doesn’t appear strong enough for Keoghan to get his second nod after The Banshees of Inisherin or Abbott to garner his first. This applies to any other category as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Paddington in Peru Box Office Prediction

After a seven year absence from the big screen, Sony hopes families are itching to watch Paddington in Peru over the Valentine’s/Presidents’ Day long weekend. The third feature in the franchise mixing live action/animation has Dougal Wilson taking over directorial duties from Paul King. Based on Michael Bond’s children’s books, Ben Whishaw returns to voice the titular bear. Other cast members include Hugh Bonneville, Emily Mortimer (replacing Sally Hawkins), Madeleine Harris, Samuel Joslin, Julie Walters, Jim Broadbent, Olivia Colman, Antonio Banderas, Imelda Staunton, Carla Tous, and Hayley Atwell.

Just over a decade ago, Paddington kicked off to $18.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $25.4 million over the extended MLK frame of 2015. Three years later, Paddington 2 started on the same holiday weekend to lesser results ($11 million for the three-day and $15 million when counting Monday). That’s despite fantastic reviews for the sequel as it notably sports a 99% RT rating.

Critical reaction for Peru is at 93% on that site though most notices say it falls short of its predecessors. In the United Kingdom, it achieved the best debut of the trilogy. The lengthy wait between features could prevent that from happening stateside though it is certainly achievable. I do think it will manage to outpace the second tale.

Paddington in Peru opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $17 million (Friday to Monday)

For my Captain America: Brave New World prediction, click here:

Captain America: Brave New World Box Office Prediction

77th Directors Guild of America Awards Winner Predictions

In this busy awards weekend (Critics Choice is tomorrow and PGA on Saturday), the Directors Guild also weighs in with their best of on Saturday. The winner of the DGA Feature Film race correlates with the Oscar winner the vast majority of the time. That would be 21 of 24 occurrences in the 21st century. The guild also honors filmmakers in the documentary field and those making their first feature.

Let’s walk through all 3 competitions with a winner selection and a runner-up.

Feature Film

Jacques Audiard (Emilia Pérez), Sean Baker (Anora), Edward Berger (Conclave), Brady Corbet (The Brutalist), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown)

The only difference between the Academy’s quintet and here is Berger in this mix and Coralie Fargeat (The Substance) in contention for Oscar. This is a very easy pick. Even if The Brutalist doesn’t take BP at the big show (and that’s quite possible), Corbet is the overwhelming favorite.

PREDICTED WINNER: Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Runner-Up: Is there one? I suppose Sean Baker in Anora

Documentaries

Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev (Porcelain War), Julian Brave NoiseCat and Emily Kassie (Sugarcane), Johan Grimonprez (Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat), Ibrahim Nash’at (Hollywoodland), Natalie Rae and Angela Patton (Daughters)

There is less of a match with DGA and Oscar in this competition. Porcelain, Sugarcane, and Soundtrack are all up at the Academy while Daughters was an unexpected snub. This is admittedly guesswork with Oscar frontrunner No Other Land contending but I’ll roll with Porcelain.

PREDICTED WINNER: Brendan Bellomo and Slava Leontyev, Porcelain War

Runner-Up: Natalie Rae and Angela Patton, Daughters

FIRST-TIME FEATURE FILM

Payal Kapadia (All We Imagine as Light), Megan Park (My Old Ass), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Halfdan Ullmann Tøndel (Armand), Sean Wang (Dídi)

All five pics have their admirers, but this should come down to Kapadia vs. Ross. I’m giving the latter the slight edge.

PREDICTED WINNER: RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys

Runner-Up: Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light

I’ll have recap up (along with PGA) this weekend!