Amazon MGM is hoping moviegoers choose to spend some time with The Fire Inside this Christmas. The true-life sports drama stars Ryan Destiny as boxer Claressa “T-Rex” Shields as she trains for the 2012 Summer Olympics with Brian Tyree Henry as her coach. Rachel Morrison directs with a script from Moonlight Oscar winner Barry Jenkins, who currently has Mufasa: The Lion King in multiplexes.
Inside first screened at the Toronto Film Festival to some knockout reviews. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 96% with 78 on Metacritic. Said to be a crowdpleaser, I’m a bit perplexed by the lack of marketing. Perhaps this will surprise, but I think its five-day holiday earnings ring up less than $5 million.
The Fire Inside opening weekend prediction: $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
There have been hundreds upon hundreds of cast members and hosts who have made us laugh on SNL during its nearly 50 years of existence. John Belushi was the first. He appeared in “The Wolverines” sketch that cold opened the first episode ever on October 11, 1975. Feigning a heart attack to the “real” medical episode of his scene partner (writer Michael O’Donoghue), it was Belushi who stood out even though Chevy Chase got to say “Live from New York…”
A Second City and National Lampoon alum, his manic energy stood out among the original Not Ready for Prime Time Players. This extended to bits at the Weekend Update Desk, impersonating Beethoven and Brando and William Shatner as James T. Kirk, and Joe Cocker, and bringing his musical and dancing chops alongside Dan Aykroyd as The Blues Brothers. There’s his Samurai character or a (personal favorite) taped sketch where he extols the virtues of little chocolate donuts.
Chevy Chase left for silver screen stardom after one season, but it was Belushi who first broke through in theaters with National Lampoon’s Animal House in 1978. That was a year before he departed SNL. When he left, it was hard to imagine the show continuing without him. Of course it managed to though Belushi cast a wide and wild shadow with his contributions. #5 will be up soon!
Following its Venice Film Festival premiere to mostly strong reviews early in the fall, Babygirl is delivered to theaters on Christmas Day. The steamy thriller casts Nicole Kidman and Harris Dickinson in a Fatal Attraction scenario. Halina Reijn directs with a supporting cast including Sophie Wilde and Antonio Banderas.
The A24 release has generated some Oscar buzz for Ms. Kidman. The Rotten Tomatoes meter is at 85% with 80 on Metacritic. Babygirl hopes to bring in a female crowd over the holidays but its appeal could be limited. Look for a mid single digits output from Friday to Sunday and throw in $2-3 million more when factoring in the 25th and 26th.
Babygirl opening weekend prediction: $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $6.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
The ultimate utility player in a golden age on the show, Phil Hartman’s eight years were filled with terrific impressions and delightfully oddball original characters. His comedic bonafides are undeniable. A Groundlings alum, he co-wrote Pee-Wee’s Big Adventure before joining SNL and would later provide iconic voices on The Simpsons.
Hartman excelled at impersonating two Presidents (Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton) and one First Lady (Barbara Bush). His bit as Clinton visiting McDonald’s is rightfully considered one of the all-timers. A Reagan sketch where he’s shown to be the man behind the curtain unlike his reputation is also a classic. Other memorable impressions include Frank Sinatra, Phil Donahue, Charlton Heston, Johnny Cash, Andy Griffith, and Ed McMahon’s to Dana Carvey’s Johnny Carson. That’s merely skimming the surface.
Fresh creations included Unfrozen Caveman Lawyer and Eugene, the Anal Retentive Chef. Hartman was a genuine glue guy on SNL who was often the highlight among many talented costars. #6 will be up soon!
Blogger’s Update (12/24): On the eve of its Christmas premiere, I’m bumping my A Complete Unknown from $13.1 million to $16.3 million from Friday to Sunday and from $24.4 million to $31.1 million from Wednesday to Sunday
Searchlight Pictures hope audiences seek A Complete Unknown when it debuts on Christmas Day. James Mangold, no stranger to the musical biopic genre with 2005’s Johnny and June Cash centered Walk the Line, directs. Timothée Chalamet is the legendary Bob Dylan with a supporting cast including Edward Norton, Elle Fanning, Monica Barbaro, Boyd Holbrook (as Johnny Cash), and Scoot McNairy.
Chalamet, coming off the one-two punch of Wonka and Dune: Part Two, has been visible promoting this and even went on College GameDay to hawk the holiday release. Reviews are sturdy enough with 78% on Rotten Tomatoes and a 72 Metacritic. Its lead, who does his own singing, is generating Best Actor buzz and he is a threat to win (it could nab a Best Picture slot too).
Unknown could succeed in bringing in an older audience interested in the subject matter and some youngsters interested in Chalamet. With Christmas falling on Wednesday, I think this reaches low double digits or low teens from Friday to Sunday and mid 20s for the five-day.
A Complete Unknown opening weekend prediction: $16.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $31.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Focus Features is hoping horror fans sink their teeth into Nosferatu when it premieres on Christmas. A remake of the 1922 German classic which adapted Bram Stoker’s Dracula, Robert Eggers directs. Bill Skarsgård takes on another classic scary villain after Pennywise in the It chapters. Costars include Nicholas Hoult, Lily-Rose Depp, Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Emma Corrin, Ralph Ineson, Simon McBurney, and Willem Dafoe.
Reviews are strong with 93% on Rotten Tomatoes and an 82 Metacritic score. This caps off a year filled with numerous acclaimed fright features. Nosferatu could manage the largest debut among the holiday openings considering its only real competition is A Complete Unknown.
During this season, newcomers often start out lower than they typically would and develop stronger legs into January. With 12/25 falling on a Wednesday, I’ll project Nosferatu manages low teens from Friday to Sunday with close to an equal amount when factoring in Christmas and the day after.
Nosferatu opening weekend prediction: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday estimate); $26.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Every year in December, we get a clearer picture of several races at the forthcoming Oscars when shortlists are unveiled. For feature-length categories, this applies to International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, Original Score, Original Song, Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. In Score, we are given a list of 20 finalists in contention. For Song it’s 15. Same goes for the foreign and doc derbies. For the other 3 down-the-line competitions, we are given the standing 10 hopefuls. When nominations are eventually announced, all of these races will be whittled down to the final five.
Let’s walk through all seven of the shortlisted categories with some commentary, shall we?
Best International Feature Film
Shortlisted Movies: Armand, Dahomey, Emilia Pérez, Flow, From Ground Zero, The Girl with the Needle, How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies, I’m Still Here, Kneecap, Santosh, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Touch, Universal Language, Vermiglio, Waves
There weren’t any major surprises as my top 10 IFF contenders from my previous update all made the cut. The additional five are Armand (which has been in my 10 before), From Ground Zero, Santosh, Touch, and Waves. Mexico’s Sujo and Japan’s Cloud are somewhat notable omissions.
Best Documentary Feature
Shortlisted Movies: The Bibi Files, Black Box Diaries, Dahomey, Daughters, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, No Other Land, Porcelain War, Queendom, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Union, Will & Harper
Nine of my previous ten docs are in with the other six being The Bibi Files, Eno, Frida, Hollywoodgate, Porcelain War, and Queendom. The only missing entry was my #9 from last weekend – Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story. It’s not out of character for the doc branch to leave off some of higher profile titles.
Best Original Score
Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Babygirl, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Blink Twice, Blitz, The Brutalist, Challengers, Conclave, Emilia Pérez, The Fire Inside, Gladiator II, Horizon: American Saga – Chapter 1, Inside Out 2, Nosferatu, The Room Next Door, Sing Sing, The Six Triple Eight, Wicked, The Wild Robot, Young Woman and the Sea
Like in IFF, all ten of my contenders remain intact with another 10 in the mix. So while there’s no huge shockers, Queer and Saturday Night were expected to show up here.
Best Original Song
Shortlisted Songs: “Beyond” from Moana 2, “Compress/Repress” from Challengers, “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez, “Forbidden Road” from Better Man, “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper, “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight, “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot, “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing, “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez, “Never Too Late” from Elton John: Never Too Late, “Out of Oklahoma” from Twisters, “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece, “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap, “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King, “Winter Coat” from Blitz
The songs that got in for Twisters, Kneecap, and Mufasa were not the tunes I would’ve predicted for that trio. In my top ten from last weekend, I had “Better Way to Live” from Kneecap. In a notable snub, Miley Cyrus’s “Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl (a Globe nominee) is out.
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Shortlisted Movies: The Apprentice, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Maria, Nosferatu, The Substance, Walking with Brando, Wicked
In one of the larger twists, the little-seen Waltzing with Brando dances into this category. My number 8 Sasquatch Sunset and 9 Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga don’t get in. Furiosa had a bad day as it was blanked from this, Score, and the next two categories.
Best Sound
Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Wicked, The Wild Robot
Here’s where I had the most misses and this is the only place where a predicted nominee fails to show. That would be my #4 The Brutalist. There’s also Nosferatu (8th), Furiosa (9th), and The Substance (10th) not in contention. Alien had a good day by the way while The Substance only made it in Makeup (which it could win).
Best Visual Effects
Shortlisted Movies: Alien: Romulus, Better Man, Civil War, Deadpool & Wolverine, Dune: Part Two, Gladiator II, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Mufasa: The Lion King, Twisters, Wicked
I would’ve thought Civil War had a stronger chance in Sound, but it’s here along with Alien instead of my #7 The Substance and #10 Furiosa.
Bottom line: there’s no jaw dropping snubs in my view like there have been in some past years. Yet now we can probably safely assume Furiosa has no road to any Oscar nominations unless the Production Design branch bails it out (unlikely).
30 years ago, Disney’s animated The Lion King landed four Oscar nominations with three of its tracks nominated in Original Song. “Can You Feel the Love Tonight” (performed by Elton John) was the victorious track over “Circle of Life” and “Hakuna Matata”. Tim Rice also took home the gold for his score. 25 years later, the photorealistic remake directed by Jon Favreau was up for Visual Effects but fell short to 1917.
And now – Mufasa: The Lion King, which serves as a prequel and sequel to the remake, hits multiplexes Friday. Barry Jenkins, maker of 2016’s Best Picture Moonlight, made the surprising choice to direct it. Donald Glover, Seth Rogen, Billy Eichner, Beyoncé and her daughter Blue Ivy, Aaron Pierre, Kelvin Harrison Jr., Tiffany Boone, Mads Mikkelsen, Thandiwe Newton, Lennie James, and Anika Noni Rose are among the cast.
Will this contend for anything? We do know it has two chances. The Oscar shortlists were unveiled this afternoon (a post regarding that will be up shortly) and Mufasa made the ten possibilities for Visual Effects and “Tell Me It’s You” is among 15 tunes eligible.
Those are likely the only two races where this stands a chance. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 59% with Metacritic at 58. I think it has a better shot in VE than Original Song, but wouldn’t be surprised to see it miss both come nomination morning. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Paramount and Disney respectively look to dominate the pre-Yuletide box office chart as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 and Mufasa: The Lion King invade theaters this weekend. The duo should easily lead a family friendly lineup as we enter the bustling holiday season. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
As explained in said posts, Sonic may have the advantage of having a more front loaded start than its Mouse House competitor. My mid to high 70s forecast has the Sega threequel slightly outperforming its 2022 predecessor.
Mufasa is highly unlikely to match the near $200 million opening haul that 2019’s live-action The Lion King roared with. While I have it achieving low to mid 50s out of the gate, this sequel/prequel appears set up to play well throughout the season.
After three weeks atop the charts, Moana 2 will relinquish the crown. It may even fall to fourth as I have it dipping in the 50% range and Wicked sliding in the mid 40s.
I’ll give the five spot to Kraven the Hunter after a DOA arrival (more on that below), but it could be Gladiator II. I have Kraven plummeting in the upper 50s with Gladiator easing in the low 40s.
And with that, here’s my take on the top 6:
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $77.6 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $51.3 million
3. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $12.7 million
4. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $12.5 million
5. Kraven the Hunter
Predicted Gross: $4.8 million
6. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
Box Office Results (December 13-15)
November leftovers Moana 2 and Wicked continued to entertain kids and their parents. The former was 1st with $26.4 million, in line with my $27.5 million prediction. Disney’s sequel has amassed $337 million since its Thanksgiving bow.
Wicked took the runner-up spot at $22.6 million, in range with my $21.7 million call. The Broadway adaptation stands at $359 million after four weeks.
Another poorly reviewed Spider-Man Universe offering bombed with audiences as Kraven the Hunter was blanked in third with $11 million. I was more generous at $14.8 million. This comes months after Madame Web struggled to find its comic book fans. With a tepid C Cinemascore grade, crowds agreed with critics on its quality.
Gladiator II was fourth with $7.6 million. My estimate? $7.6 million! After four weeks, the tally stands at $145 million.
Finally, anime The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim did not pass muster with moviegoers in fifth with a paltry $4.5 million. I gave it more credit at $8 million.
There was no way to properly forecast the force of nature that was Chris Farley when he joined the SNL cast in 1990. Influenced by his idol and original Not Ready for Prime Time Player John Belushi (and suffering from some of the same demons), Farley burst onto Studio 8H stage with now legendary sketches.
Any aficionado of the show knows the greatest hits. Spawned from his time at Second City, motivational speaker Matt Foley caused costar David Spade (his future Tommy Boy and Black Sheep screen partner) and host Christina Applegate to lose it while he recounted living in a van down by the river. His Chippendales audition alongside Patrick Swayze is an all-timer.
Even Farley’s limited appearances in bits stole the show. His one line in a suggestive sketch where Dana Carvey and Adam Sandler put pepper on the dishes of restaurant goers (why THANK YOU PEPPER BOY!!!) is the most memorable part. There’s The Chris Farley Show where he nervously interviewed celebrities like Paul McCartney or Jeff Daniels and the lunch lady musical number with Sandler. Gap Girls. Bennett Brauer who appeared on Update to lament about his life via “air quotes”. Chris Farley’s physicality, outrageousness, and vulnerability caused him to be an SNL MVP in equal measure. #7 will be up soon!
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