I’m closing out 2024 on the blog by closing out my Top 50 SNL Cast Members of All Time series while the legendary program’s 50th season is currently underway. It’s been a hoot coming up with this list as we celebrate a half century of often brilliant comedy.
Before he was Buddy the Elf or Ron Burgundy or Ricky Bobby or a stepbrother, Will Ferrell’s seven years in what is now the middle of SNL’s run takes top honors. The Groundlings alum came to the show during a transitional period with a mostly all-new cast. He made his mark immediately with a seemingly endless parade of bizarre and uproarious sketches. This included him yelling (there is no better comedic yeller) at his kids to “get off the shed” and an uncomfortable family dinner where he sadly but boldly proclaims his ownership of a Dodge Stratus. There’s his Evil Boss terrorizing Pierce Brosnan and Chris Parnell, his doctor who flat out lost a baby, and a commercial where he humiliates his dog. Part of Ferrell’s appeal was his everyman look combined with his off-kilter instincts. It made for an irresistible combination.
Then there’s his takes on President George W. Bush, Harry Caray, Inside the Actors Studio host James Lipton, crooner Robert Goulet, Attorney General Janet Reno, and Alex Trebek, constantly suffering to the insults of Darrell Hammond’s Sean Connery. The Cheerleaders with Cheri Oteri. The Roxbury guys with Chris Kattan. His boutique employee with a tiny phone that caused Jimmy Fallon and Horatio Sanz to lose it. There’s the post 9/11 sketch with his overly patriotic employee that provided much needed humor at that time. And More Cowbell anyone?
And that’s just scratching the surface. Ferrell’s contributions are truly remarkable and I didn’t have to think too hard for this placement.
2025 at the box office begins with no new wide releases as holiday holdovers will dominate the charts and especially family-friendly ones.
While Sonic the Hedgehog 3 barely edged Mufasa: The Lion King for the Friday to Sunday portion of the Christmas weekend in their second outings, that should change in the new year. I have Disney’s Mufasa easing in the mid 30s with Sonic declining in the mid 40s. That would give the Mouse House the #1 spot.
The 3-5 slots could be close. I have Wicked rising from 4th to 3rd with a mid to high 20s decline and Nosferatu going from 3rd to 4th with a high 30s to low 40s dip after an impressive start (more on that below). Moana 2 would stay put in fifth with A Complete Unknown remaining in 6th (though it may only see a 20% or so reduction considering its impressive A Cinemascore grade).
Here’s how I envision it all shaking out:
1. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $25.1 million
2. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $20.9 million
3. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $14.2 million
4. Nosferatu
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
5. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $13 million
6. A Complete Unknown
Predicted Gross: $9.3 million
Box Office Results (December 27-29)
In what turned out to be a photo finish, Sonic the Hedgehog 3 claimed bragging rights as 2024 closed out with $37 million (topping my $32.1 million estimate) in its sophomore play. The Sega based threequel brought its two-week tally to $136 million.
Mufasa: The Lion King actually took first for the five-day Christmas to Sunday crown, but was second for the traditional weekend at $36.8 million. That’s well beyond my $26 million projection as the pre/sequel sits at $113 million.
Nosferatu had no trouble being the best performing newcomer in third with $21.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $40.8 million when factoring in Christmas Day and December 26th. The Robert Eggers gothic horror tale easily eclipsed my respective $14.8 million and $26.4 million forecasts. With a B- Cinemascore (not bad actually for its genre), its staying power might not be as potent as other leftovers on the chart.
Wicked was fourth with $19.7 million (I said $18.8 million) to bring its massive six-week haul to $424 million.
Moana 2 rounded out the top five with $18.9 million, ahead of my $16.9 million call. The Disney sequel has made $395 million after five weeks.
The Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet had a respectable start in sixth with $11.6 million from Friday to Sunday and $23.2 million with the extra two days. I went higher at $16.3 million and $31.1 million, but it’s still a solid debut for the Oscar hopeful.
Nicole Kidman’s steamy thriller Babygirl was seventh with $4.3 million for the three-day and $7.2 million since its Wednesday beginning. That’s right on pace with my predictions of $4.2 million and $6.9 million.
Gladiator II took the 8th spot at $4 million for $163 million in six weeks. I projected that the Ridley Scott sequel would get a bit more at $5.7 million.
In its second go-round, Homestead from Angel Studios was ninth with $3 million (I said $4.6 million) to bring its total to $12 million.
Finally, true-life boxing drama The Fire Inside wasn’t exactly a knockout with audiences. It was 10th with $1.9 million from Friday to Sunday and $4.2 million since Wednesday. That didn’t even match my meager estimates of $2.9 million and $4.8 million.
These are last Oscar predictions in calendar year 2024 and I’ll likely do the final forecast on Tuesday, January 14th before the nominations are revealed on Friday, January 17th. It got me wondering how accurate my projections were for the 96th Academy Awards covering 2023 at this point in the calendar. Turns out… I did a post on December 29th of last year. The results? That’s what I’ll focus on in this write-up while giving you my predictions for the next broadcast.
The quick version is that my December 29th, 2023 forecast yielded 79 of the eventual 105 nominees. That’s not far off from my eventual tally of 84 of 105 when the announcements were made in January 2024. This includes 10 for 10 (!) in Best Picture and 5 for 5 in Makeup & Hairstyling. I went 4 for 5 in 10 other competitions while getting 3 for 5 in eight other competitions. There wasn’t one category where I didn’t have the winner listed as a nominee… except for in Visual Effects (we’ll get to that at the bottom).
Let’s get to it with some chatter about my performance in the previous year to use a potential context for what’s to come.
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 5) (E)
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (E)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+2)
8. The Substance (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (E)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)
13. September 5 (PR: 12) (-1)
14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
10 for 10 on the Best Picture nominees and that includes listing eventual victor Oppenheimer at #1.
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (E)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Jon M. Chu, Wicked
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5 and I correctly had Christopher Nolan’s direction of Oppenheimer listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Greta Gerwig (Barbie) in over Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), who was listed in 8th position.
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2.Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 7) (E)
8. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Eventual winner Emma Stone (Poor Things) was listed in 2nd after Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). I incorrectly had Greta Lee (Past Lives) nominated over Annette Bening (Nyad), who I had listed in ninth.
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. I had the winner Cillian Murphy of Oppenheimer listed second after Bradley Cooper from Maestro. Where I went wrong – I had Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) nominated over my #6 Colman Domingo (Rustin).
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joan Chen, Dídi
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. I correctly had Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – Julianne Moore (May December) and Rachel McAdams (Are You ThereGod? It’s Me, Margaret) in over Jodie Foster for Nyad (who I had in sixth) and America Ferrera in Barbie (who was 8th at that time).
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29 –
4 for 5. I correctly had Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) listed in first. Where I went wrong – I had Charles Melton (May December) being nominated over #7 Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction.
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)
8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)
10. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner The Holdovers was listed 2nd while I had Barbie ranked 1st. It would be moved into Adapted Screenplay shortly thereafter. Where I went wrong – listing Barbie instead of #7 Maestro.
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: 9) (E)
10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. Per above, I had Barbie listed in Original instead of Adapted at that time. Winner American Fiction was slotted fourth. Where I went wrong – having Killers of the Flower Moon and All of Us Strangers instead of Barbie and #6 The Zone of Interest.
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Kneecap (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Universal Language (PR: 9) (+2)
8. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Flow (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Dahomey (PR: 6) (-4)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. The Zone of Interest was correctly listed in 1st. Where I went wrong – The Taste of Things was predicted over #9 lo capitano.
Best Animated Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 8) (E)
9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner The Boy and the Heron was listed in 2nd. Where I went wrong – predicting The Peasants over #10 Robot Dreams.
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sugarcane (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Daughters (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dahomey (PR: 5) (-1)
8. Union (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Porcelain War (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. 20 Days in Mariupol was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – Beyond Utopia and American Symphony were predicted over #9 Bobi Wine: The People’s President and unranked To Kill a Tiger.
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maria (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Anora
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest nominated over #10 El Conde.
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (+3)
8. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 7) (-3)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed in 2nd (behind Barbie). Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Conclave (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Dune: Part Two (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 9) (+3)
7. September 5 (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Challengers (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had Air and Barbie nominated over #6 The Holdovers and #8 Anatomy of a Fall.
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Different Man (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Waltzing with Brando (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Maria (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
5 for 5! Winner Poor Things was listed second behind Maestro.
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Challengers (PR: 5) (+1)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Sing Sing (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. Oppenheimer was correctly listed 1st. Where I went wrong – I had The Zone of Interest and The Boy and the Heron nominated over #10 American Fiction and the unranked Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 6) (-1)
8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (E)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. “What Was I Made For?” from Barbie was correctly in 1st. Where I went wrong – I had “Road to Freedom” from Rustin and “Keep It Movin” from The Color Purple nominated over #6 “It Never Went Away” from American Symphony and #9 “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” from Killers of the Flower Moon
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)
9. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
4 for 5. Winner Poor Things was listed 2nd behind Barbie. Where I went wrong – The Color Purple getting nominated over #7 Napoleon.
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (+1)
4. A Complete Unknown (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (E)
7. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Wild Robot (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. I had winner The Zone of Interest listed fourth. Where I went wrong – Ferrari and Napoleon being nominated over #8 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 The Creator.
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Wicked (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Alien: Romulus (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 6) (E)
7. Better Man (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: 10) (E)
2023 Performance on December 29th –
3 for 5. My #4 Godzilla Minus One won. Where I went wrong – this is the one category where my #1 (Poor Things) ended up not getting nominated. That’s in addition to having Society of the Snow getting in. #7 Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning and #10 Napoleon made the cut instead.
Whew. And that leaves the following pictures garnering these numbers of nominations:
11 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
8 Nominations
Conclave
7 Nominations
Wicked
5 Nominations
Anora, The Substance
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, Sing Sing
3 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys
2 Nominations
The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
Alien: Romulus, Blitz, Challengers, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, Hard Truths, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, The Room Next Door, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
An unexpected development when the Academy released their shortlists in various races a few days back was Marlon Brando popping up in contention. And that’s not just because the legendary and quirky actor has been dead for over 20 years.
Waltzing with Brando is directed by Bill Fishman with Billy Zane playing Brando in the late 60s and early 70s when he was making The Godfather and Last Tango in Paris. He was also building an island in Tahiti and that’s where the picture focuses with Napoleon Dynamite‘s Jon Heder as his beleaguered architect. Costars include Richard Dreyfuss, Camille Razat, Tia Carrere, and James Jagger (son of Mick).
Brando premiered at the Torino Film Festival late last month. It doesn’t even have a Rotten Tomatoes page yet. Yet it surprisingly made the ten finalists in the Makeup & Hairstyling race along with anticipated heavy hitters like The Substance, Dune: Part Two, and Wicked. The fact that it reached the 10 hopefuls makes you naturally wonder if it could end up in the ultimate contending quintet. The trailer does indicate that the artists succeed in making Zane look like Brando. I’m not projecting it will, but it certainly has a 10% shot. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After the entirety of the original cast had left SNL by 1980 as well as creator Lorne Michaels, the program was in a precarious position. Indeed the 1980-81 season is perhaps the worst of the 50 when associate producer Jean Doumanian took over show running duties.
There was one decision that failed season that literally saved the show and that was hiring Eddie Murphy at age 19. He joined SNL in the fourth episode that year and the rest was history. For the next four seasons, his comedic brilliance would shine brightly and turned Murphy into a phenom.
His mimicry skills were impeccable with classic bits like James Brown in a hot tub or the creation of Little Richard Simmons, a mashup of flamboyant singer Little Richard and fitness guru Richard Simmons. Other impersonations included James Brown and Stevie Wonder.
Mister Robinson was a takeoff on children’s host Fred Rogers with a more urban feel. One of the greatest pre-taped segments was “White Like Me” when Murphy came back to host in 1984 shortly after his departure. It was a preview of the kind of makeup effects he would become known for in The Nutty Professor and more years later. There’s Gumby (damnit) and Buckwheat and Velvet Jones. Buckwheat’s “assassination” is an all-timer.
Murphy would reprise many of these characters 35 years later in a triumphant Christmas show hosting gig in 2019. It was one more reminder of his vital contributions to SNL during a period where he also shot 48 Hrs., Trading Places, and Beverly Hills Cop and created the iconic stand-up special Delirious. The 40 years that followed are thanks to him and he deserves that credit. #1 will be up soon!
Kristen Wiig’s tenure on SNL was so fruitful that she got a most epic sendoff when she departed in 2012. It included getting serenaded by host Mick Jagger and a slow dance with creator Lorne Michaels. The Groundlings alumni’s seven seasons featured some wonderful impressions, but the volume of hilarious original characters is what made her stand out.
A lot of them were bizarre in a glorious way. The Target Lady and the constantly bitter Aunt Linda. Her Kat to Fred Amisen’s Garth, always inventing songs at the Weekend Update desk. Old-time screen siren Mindy Grayson and her inappropriate appearances on Secret Password. The sexy until she’s not Shana and Sue, who can’t help but ruin any event when a surprise is occurring.
Then there’s practically indescribable creations like Gilly and especially Dooneese along with her sisters on The Lawrence Welk Show. I could go on and on (her celebrity reporter alongside Bill Hader or The Californians) and it’s a sign of how impactful Wiig’s time was. And, yes, there are impersonations that were fantastic like Kathie Lee Gifford, Greta Van Susteren, Suze Orman, Ann-Margret and Liza Minnelli. #2 will be up soon!
During SNL’s currently airing 50th season, viewers have been reminded of the brilliance of Dana Carvey in the form of his President Biden impersonation. To fans of the show, this is no surprise considering Carvey has been giving us unforgettable takes on political figures and others for nearly 40 years in studio 8H. The best known example was President George H.W. Bush during his tenure in office. However, the considerable list of Carvey impressions includes Ross Perot, Johnny Carson, Woody Allen, Jimmy Stewart, Regis Philbin, Paul McCartney, Casey Kasem, Tom Brokaw, Ted Koppel, and Charles Grodin.
In a cast that included heavy hitters like Phil Hartman, Mike Myers, and Jan Hooks, Carvey turned into the headliner. Original creations included Church Lady, Hans from Hans and Franz, Massive Headwound Harry, the Grumpy Old Man, and his Garth to Mike Myers’ Wayne Campbell from the “Wayne’s World” sketches. They would, of course, turn into one of SNL’s most successful transitions to the silver screen in 1992.
Carvey would leave the next year but has returned numerous times in the 30 years after to provide more highlights. #3 will be up soon!
Blogger’s Update (12/24): On the eve of its Christmas premiere, I’m bumping my A Complete Unknown from $13.1 million to $16.3 million from Friday to Sunday and from $24.4 million to $31.1 million from Wednesday to Sunday
The 2024 movie season concludes with Christmas falling on a Wednesday and four wide releases populating the marketplace that day. They are gothic horror remake Nosferatu from Robert Eggers, Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown with Timothée Chalamet, steamy thriller Babygirl starring Nicole Kidman, and the true-life boxing tale The Fire Inside. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the quartet here:
The box office can get awfully unpredictable over the holidays and that might hold true this year. Many questions abound. There is a decent chance that the top four, despite the same number of newbies, remains the same. Sonic the Hedgehog 3, after ruling the charts surprisingly easily over Mufasa: The Lion King, may cling to 1st even though it should have the largest decline of holdovers. I’m projecting it falls over in the mid to high 40s with Mufasa only easing in the high 20s in their second weekends.
Other returnees, as can be the case over the Yuletide frame, may experience increases from the previous frame. If so, Wicked (which I have rising in the mid 30s) and Moana 2 (low 30s) may maintain the 3-4 positions.
I have Nosferatu and A Complete Unknown both in the low teens for Friday to Sunday and mid 20s when counting Wednesday and Thursday. Either of them could exceed my expectations and enter the top 4.
As for Babygirl and The Fire Inside, I have them in the bottom of top 10 with Gladiator II in seventh and Homestead in 8th.
Here’s how I have it all shaking out:
1. Sonic the Hedgehog 3
Predicted Gross: $32.1 million
2. Mufasa: The Lion King
Predicted Gross: $26 million
3. Wicked
Predicted Gross: $18.8 million
4. Moana 2
Predicted Gross: $16.9 million
5. A Complete Unknown
Predicted Gross: $16.3 million (Friday to Sunday); $31.1 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
6. Nosferatu
Predicted Gross: $14.8 million (Friday to Sunday); $26.4 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
7. Gladiator II
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million
8. Homestead
Predicted Gross: $4.6 million
9. Babygirl
Predicted Gross: $4.2 million (Friday to Sunday); $6.9 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
10. The Fire Inside
Predicted Gross: $2.9 million (Friday to Sunday); $4.8 million (Wednesday to Sunday)
Box Office Results (December 20-22)
Paramount/Sega, as mentioned, held the top spot with plenty of room to spare as Sonic the Hedgehog 3 made off with $60.1 million. That’s well under my generous $77.6 million estimate and falls well shorty of the $72 million achieved by part 2 in 2022. It’s still a respectable number considering that it should perform decently in the weeks ahead.
Disney’s Mufasa: The Lion King didn’t exactly roar in second with $35.4 million compared to my $51.3 million prediction. Considering the reported $200 million price tag, this is a letdown. However, families could be biding their time to make their trek to multiplex to view it.
Wicked was third with $14.1 million, a tad ahead of my $12.7 million take. The Broadway adaptation stands at $384 million after five weeks.
After three weeks in 1st, Moana 2 was fourth with $13.2 million (I said $12.5 million) to bring its tally to $359 million.
Angel Studios got their post-apocalyptic pic Homestead to the five spot with $6 million and I failed to do a projection for it.
Gladiator II was sixth with $4.5 million (I was right there at $4.6 million) for five-week earnings of $154 million.
Finally, Kraven the Hunter from the Spider-Man Universe tumbled 72% to $3 million in its sophomore frame compared to my $4.8 million projection. The stalled superhero tale has made a piddly $17 million thus far.
And that does it for now, folks! Have a wonderful holiday and until next time…
Among a cast of all-stars during his eight season stint, Bill Hader’s impressions and original characters on SNL were responsible for countless highlights. If he were only known for impersonations, he would probably belong near the top of this list. His Alan Alda is uncanny and there’s Al Pacino, James Carville, Harvey Fierstein, Vincent Price, Daniel Day-Lewis in an uproarious take on his There Will Be Blood character, and Clint Eastwood. Then there’s Keith Morrison from Dateline NBC which Hader revealed iin interviews to be his favorite show.
Fresh creations would put him near the top of the list like Italian talk show host Vinny Vedecci or past his prime newsman Herb Welch. Hader’s haunted Vietnam vet turned puppeteer gave us a classic sketch alongside host Seth MacFarlane.
Then, of course, there’s clubgoer Stefon and his amazing Weekend Update bits with Seth Meyers. John Mulaney and Hader collaborated on one of the show’s most side splitting creations. Hader could not keep a straight face during Stefon bits. Neither could we for so much of Hader’s run. #4 will be up soon!
My latest Oscar forecast follows the reveals for shortlists earlier this week where we now know the 15 finalists in International Feature Film, Documentary Feature, and Original Song. We were also given the 20 hopefuls in Original Score and ten pictures standing in Makeup and Hairstyling, Sound, and Visual Effects. I covered my reaction to the shortlists here:
Best Sound is the category most altered by the announcement of ten finalists. The Brutalist, which clings to my #1 ranking in Best Picture, falls out of Sound altogether while A Complete Unknown rises two spots to third position. That’s not the only significant development for the Bob Dylan biopic starring Timothée Chalamet. Three days before its opening, I have Unknown in my BP ten for the first time and that’s at the expense of A Real Pain. That’s not all. Edward Norton’s performance as Pete Seeger in the movie enters the Supporting Actor quintet with Yura Borisov (Anora) now on the outside looking in.
In Best Actress, that pesky fifth slot goes back to Cynthia Erivo (Wicked) over Marianne Jean-Baptiste in Hard Truths.
You can read all the movement below as I now have Emilia Pérez leading all nominees with 11 to The Brutalist‘s 10. I’ll have another update up post Christmas and pre-New Year’s!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-1)
7. The Substance (PR: 7) (E)
8. Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 8) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Real Pain (PR: 10) (-1)
12. September 5 (PR: 13) (+1)
13. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 12) (-1)
14. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (E)
15. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (E)
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Coralie Fargeat, The Substance (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: PartTwo (PR: 6) (E)
7. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (E)
8. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jon M. Chu, Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Kate Winslet, Lee (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Amy Adams, Nightbitch
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 2) (E)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR; 6) (E)
7. Hugh Grant, Heretic (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Margaret Qualley, The Substance (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Yura Borisov, Anora (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 9) (E)
10. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Substance (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. September 5 (PR: 6) (E)
7. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (E)
8. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 8) (E)
9. Saturday Night (PR: 9) (E)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nickel Boys (PR: 2) (E)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+3)
7. The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (-1)
8. I’m Still Here (PR: 8) (E)
9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Hit Man (PR: 10) (E)
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 4) (E)
5. Vermiglio (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dahomey (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Kneecap (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Flow (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Universal Language (PR: 9) (E)
10. How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies (PR: 10) (E)
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Wild Robot (PR: 1) (E)
2. Flow (PR: 2) (E)
3. Inside Out 2 (PR: 3) (E)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 4) (E)
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Chicken for Linda! (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Transformers One (PR: 9) (E)
10. Spellbound (PR: 10) (E)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. No Other Land (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sugarcane (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Daughters (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Dahomey (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 6) (E)
7. Union (PR: 7) (E)
8. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 8) (E)
9. Porcelain War (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Remarkable Life of Ibelin (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Maria (PR: 8) (+4)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Anora (PR: Not Ranked)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Wicked
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Maria (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Conclave (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 10) (+3)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Brutalist (PR: 9) (E)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 6) (-4)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Anora (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)
5. September 5 (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Challengers (PR: 8) (+1)
8. The Substance (PR: 5) (-3)
9. Wicked (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Substance (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. A Different Man (PR: 4 (E)
5. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Emila Pérez (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Waltzing with Brando (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Apprentice (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Sasquatch Sunset
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Wild Robot (PR: 4) (E)
5. Challengers (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Nosferatu (PR: 7) (-1)
9. The Room Next Door (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Blitz (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Nickel Boys
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (-1)
4. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: 4) (E)
5. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (+2)
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 7) (E)
8. “Tell Me It’s You” from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Sick in the Head” from Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
“Forbidden Road” from Better Man
“Beautiful That Way” from The Last Showgirl
“Better Way to Live” from Kneecap
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Wicked (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Maria (PR: 9) (+3)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Blitz (PR: 8) (E)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Substance
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Blitz (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (-3)
7. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Brutalist
Nosferatu
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
The Substance
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wicked (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Better Man (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Twisters (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Alien: Romulus (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 9) (E)
10. Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Substance
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
And that works out to the following numbers of nominations for these films:
11 Nominations
Emilia Pérez
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
8 Nominations
Dune: Part Two, Wicked
7 Nominations
Conclave
5 Nominations
Anora, Sing Sing, The Substance
4 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II
3 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys, The Wild Robot
2 Nominations
The Girl with the Needle, Nosferatu, A Real Pain, The Seed of the Sacred Fig
1 Nomination
Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Better Man, Blitz, Challengers, Dahomey, Daughters, A Different Man, Flow, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Queer, September 5, The Six Triple Eight, Sugarcane, Vermiglio, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Will & Harper
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 