Month: October 2024

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

Blogger’s Update (10/09): Based on its reported screen count of 2500 and rising buzz, I am upping my prediction from $9.4 million to $14.4 million. That gives it the #1 slot.

A handful of new releases are out in cinemas October 11th and there’s a possibility that micro-budgeted slasher Terrifier 3 tops them all. From writer/director Damien Leone, Art the Clown’s latest hardcore horror flick looks to build upon the success of its 2022 predecessor. David Howard Thornton, Lauren LaVera, Elliot Fullam, Samantha Scaffidi, Chris Jericho, Daniel Roebuck, Tom Savini, and Jason Patric are among the cast members.

Shot for a reported $2 million, it sports an 86% RT rating with 68 on Metacritic. 2016’s Terrifier was a DVD premiere that managed to gain a cult following. Six years later, the sequel became an unexpected hit in multiplexes. Made for just $250k, it took in nearly $11 million.

The third edition, with has seen overseas reports of walkouts due to its gruesomeness, could flirt with double digits out of the gate. I haven’t seen a theater count (and I’ll update this number based on that if warranted), but I’ve got achieving the best start of the newbies ahead of Saturday Night, My Hero Academia: You’re Next, Piece by Piece, and The Apprentice.

Terrifier 3 opening weekend prediction: $14.4 million

For my Saturday Night prediction, click here:

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

For my Piece by Piece prediction, click here:

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

Briarcliff Entertainment is banking on audiences being fired up for The Apprentice when it opens October 11th. The biopic from Ali Abbasi focuses on Sebastian Stan’s Donald Trump being mentored in the 70s and 80s by ruthless lawyer Roy Cohn (Jeremy Strong). Maria Bakalova (as first wife Ivana) and Martin Donovan (as patriarch Fred Trump) costar.

After its premiere at Cannes, it was questionable whether The Apprentice would debut stateside before the November 5th election. The former POTUS and current GOP candidate’s legal team threatened to block its pathway in multiplexes. A distribution deal was reached in August and here we are. Reviews are mostly of thumbs up variety at 76% on RT and 60 on Metacritic. Reactions probably aren’t strong enough to make it a Best Picture contender though Stan and Strong could be in the mix for nods.

The Apprentice‘s biggest hurdle could be a longstanding aversion to political pics when it’s all over TV. For example, 2008’s W. from Oliver Stone underwhelmed with $25 million domestically. Viewers may certainly feel they see enough of the 45th President on their home airwaves.

With a reported theater count of under 1800, this may only reach low single digits.

The Apprentice opening weekend prediction: $2.4 million

For my Saturday Night prediction, click here:

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

For my Terrifier 3 prediction, click here:

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

For my Piece by Piece prediction, click here:

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

Arriving in wide release exactly 49 years to the day from the event it showcases, Saturday Night expands nationwide on October 11th. From Jason Reitman, the dramedy recounts the 90 minutes leading up to the premiere of Saturday Night Live. Gabriel LaBelle stars as Lorne Michaels with a large supporting cast including Rachel Sennott, Cory Michael Smith (getting a lot of solid buzz as Chevy Chase), Ella Hunt, Dylan O’Brien, Emily Fairn, Matt Wood, Lamorne Morris, Kim Matula, Finn Wolfhard, Nicholas Braun (pulling double duty as Andy Kaufman and Jim Henson), Cooper Hoffman, Willem Dafoe, Matthew Rhys, J.K. Simmons, and Jon Batiste (who also provides the score).

The behind the scenes showbiz tale first premiered at Telluride to mostly favorable reaction. The RT score is 80% with 63 on Metacritic. This could contend for one of the ten slots in Best Picture at the Academy Awards, but it’s not a slam dunk nominee.

Opening just as SNL kicks off its 50th season certainly helps exposure. It debuted in five venues on September 27th in New York and L.A. to a robust $53k per screen average (second best this year after Kinds of Kindness). Saturday Night expands slightly on October 4th before the 2000 screen rollout on the 49th anniversary.

This was rightly anticipated to start out well on the coasts. I’m unconvinced general audiences will make this a sizable hit even with the (not exactly loud) awards chatter and decades long familiarity with the source material. I’m not sure this gets to $10 million and I’m putting it under.

Saturday Night opening weekend prediction: $7.8 million

For my Terrifier 3 prediction, click here:

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

For my Piece by Piece prediction, click here:

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

Focus Features hopes that audiences will be happy to attend Piece by Piece when it assembles in theaters October 11th. This is quite the interesting mashup of genres. From documentarian Morgan Neville, it is a biopic of music producer Pharrell Williams of the Neptunes told through Lego animation. Besides the central character, his musician friends Gwen Stefani, Kendrick Lamar, Timbaland, Justin Timberlake, Busta Rhymes, Jay-Z, Daft Punk, and Snoop Dogg lend their voices to the project.

After its premiere at Telluride, Piece generated mostly complimentary reaction. The RT score is 91% with Metacritic at 64. I’m not sure the reviews are strong enough that this will compete for Best Animated Feature at the Oscars.

With no significant buzz awards wise or elsewhere, I wonder who turns up for this. This isn’t really geared towards kids (and they could still be preoccupied with The Wild Robot). Adults aren’t likely clamoring for a Lego themed doc about the producer of “Hollaback Girl” and “Drop It Like It’s Hot”.

If this managed higher single digits for starters, Focus should consider it a victory. Slated for 1800 screens, I don’t think it gets there.

Piece by Piece opening weekend prediction: $5.4 million

For my Saturday Night prediction, click here:

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

For my Terrifier 3 prediction, click here:

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

For my My Hero Academia: You’re Next prediction, click here:

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction

My Hero Academia: You’re Next Box Office Prediction

The animated Japanese superhero series My Hero Academia has made the bulk of its booty overseas, but performed admirably stateside. On October 11th comes the fourth feature You’re Next. Tensai Okamura takes over directorial duties with a voice cast including Daiki Yamashita, Nobuhiko Okamato, Yuki Kaji, Ayane Sakura, and Kaito Ishikawa.

Based on the manga series that kicked off in 2014, original cinematic franchise entry Two Heroes in 2018 had a limited theatrical release in the United States and Canada. In February 2020, sequel Heroes Rising earned $5.1 million for its start while October 2021’s World Heroes’ Mission upgraded a bit at $6.4 million.

We’ve had a longer layoff between parts three and four than any of the others. I doubt that will change the dynamic much and I foresee mid single digits as the best bet.

My Hero Academia: You’re Next opening weekend prediction: $5.9 million

For my Saturday Night prediction, click here:

Saturday Night Box Office Prediction

For my Terrifier 3 prediction, click here:

Terrifier 3 Box Office Prediction

For my Piece by Piece prediction, click here:

Piece by Piece Box Office Prediction

For my The Apprentice prediction, click here:

The Apprentice Box Office Prediction