The Toronto Film Festival has concluded its 2024 business with the reveal of its People’s Choice Award and the 1st and 2nd runners-up for the prize. This announcement is eagerly awaited by Oscar prognosticators and for good reason. Since the Academy expanded beyond 5 nominees for Best Picture (it now stands at a firm ten but has been 8 or 9 in other years), the People’s Choice recipient has received a BP nod in 14 of those 15 years. The exception was 2011 when Where Do We Go Now? was the victor. Therefore the past 12 winners were Oscar BP contenders.
In 2023, we saw Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction vaulted into contention and ended up with five total nominations, taking the statue for Adapted Screenplay. In 2010, there was only one runner-up. Since 2009, that means 44 features have been People’s Choice selections or runner-ups. Of those 44, 25 went onto Academy nominations for BP. This includes Best Picture winners The King’s Speech, Argo, 12 Years a Slave, Spotlight, Green Book, Parasite, and Nomadland. In recent years, it’s become the norm for 2 of the 3 movies that Toronto names to make the Oscar ten. In addition to Fiction last year, The Holdovers was 1st runner-up.
All that context is pretext to an obvious point… this is a key precursor to the Oscars. Much speculation centered on Sean Baker’s Anora taking TIFF’s highest honor. The acclaimed film already picked up the Palme d’Or at Cannes and is seen as a threat to not only be nominated for Best Picture, but win. Mikey Madison is among the frontrunners for Best Actress. Instead it was 2nd runner-up. That third place showing, by the way, has been shared by Spotlight, Call Me by Your Name, Roma, Parasite, and The Power of the Dog.
First runner-up went to another Cannes premiere: Jacques Audiard’s musical crime flick Emilia Pérez. It’s also widely assumed to be a BP hopeful a few months down the line with potential acting nominations for Karla Sofia Gascón, Zoe Saldaña, and Selena Gomez. Recent 1st runners-up include Argo, Marriage Story, and the aforementioned The Holdovers.
Had Anora or Pérez gotten first place, no one would have been surprised. Same logic applies to Jason Reitman’s Saturday Night which was picked by some to win, place, or show. The actual recipient was unexpected and it’s The Life of Chuck from Mike Flanagan. It joins fellow People’s Choice honorees Precious, The King’s Speech, Silver Linings Playbook, The Imitation Game, Room, La La Land, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Green Book, Jojo Rabbit, Nomadland, Belfast, and The Fabelmans.
Mr. Flanagan is best known for his contributions to the horror genre. That includes adaptations of Stephen King novels Gerald’s Game and Doctor Sleep. His largest claim to fame is his show running work on Netflix series The Haunting of Hill House, Midnight Mass, and The Fall of the House of Usher.
Chuck is a departure… sort of. It’s adapted from a Stephen King novella, but is more of a sci-fi effort. Reviews were solid (87% on Rotten Tomatoes and 66 on Metacritic). However, this was not really seen as a BP contender. Distribution and the release date are still influx. There’s no trailer.
Its awards narrative has certainly changed as of today. You can expect the People’s Choice champ starring Tom Hiddleston, Mark Hamill, Chiwetel Ejiofor, Karen Gillan, and Jacob Tremblay to pick up a distributor in a hurry. An awards campaign will surely follow. I’ve yet to even consider Chuck in my top 25 possibilities for BP. That won’t be the case when I pen my next update. Even if it’s not ultimately up for BP, Adapted Screenplay seems like a strong possibility now. Make no mistake. Toronto has given unanticipated life to Chuck.
Maybe if you thought long and hard about some of your past vacations, you wouldn’t want to go back and revisit. Perhaps some negative aspects would seem clearer. Best to concentrate on how enjoyable it was while you were there. That’s a bit how I feel about Speak No Evil where a family of three interrupts their mundane London life to visit another family of three in the remote English countryside. I found myself non tongue-tied during its runtime. This is one of those thrillers where you find yourself talking back at the screen. Get out of the house already! You’re almost a teenager – why are you still attached to a stuffed rabbit?? We’ll get to that one.
Let’s start with some official business. Speak No Evil from James Watkins (The Woman in Black) is based on a 2022 Danish pic that I haven’t seen. It’s said to be darker and less audience friendly than this. Comparisons cannot be made from my vantage point. Louise (Mackenzie Davis) and Ben Dalton (Scoot McNairy) are Americans residing in London. We meet them on vacation in Italy along with daughter Agnes (Alix West Lefler). Mom is a little overprotective while Dad is a little gun shy to truly challenge her. The fragility of the Dalton clan seems pronounced at first when compared with Paddy (James McAvoy), younger wife Ciara (Aisling Franciosi), and their mute son Ant (Dan Hough). Paddy is a boisterous and fun loving doctor who entertains his fellow travelers during one of those who cares what hour it is wine filled lunches that becomes dinner that becomes an after hours chat. They get on well enough that the Yankee Londoners agree to visit Paddy and company at their home.
Louise and Ben see it as an opportunity to rekindle a relationship on shaky ground. Maybe some fresh country air will do that. Yet cracks in their plan emerge after they take the long and winding road to their new surroundings. Paddy has some eccentricities that initially are presented as mild annoyances. He force feeds some goose meat to Louise even though she’s already told him she’s a vegetarian. His parenting skills to silent (but always trying to convey something) Ant are questionable. Then again… so are Louise’s in a less sinister way.
Part of the screenplay’s fun is how there’s usually enough logic that you can understand why the Daltons don’t go speeding back to London. After all, their hosts can’t be crazy right? We know they must be or there wouldn’t be a movie to view. The tension building up to certain reveals are the creepiest moments and most of those come in the first half. James McAvoy is responsible for the bulk of them. I didn’t dig M. Night Shyamalan’s Split as much as many others did, but I definitely was wowed by McAvoy’s work. Here again he is chilling.
On the opposite end, the handling of McNairy’s Ben can be fascinating. He’s probably the weakest character of the sextet. Even quiet Ant seems determined to get something done though we’re not sure what it is for awhile. Plenty of genre material portrays the patriarch as the figure of strength. Ben is decidedly not that for most of Speak No Evil and it’s a fairly fresh and often amusing angle. Mackenzie Davis does an admirable job at conveying the realization of the menaces they’re facing.
Contrivances are common to keep the action moving in these thrillers. The plush bunny belonging to Agnes is a prime example. It’s the most memorable use of that non-human character since Nicolas Cage protected one in Con Air. Plot machinations mount as Evil goes along and the third act isn’t as juicy as the first two. Once motivations are known, it’s a mild letdown. However, I never wanted to hop off the B movie ride.
To say there’s been plenty of news since my last predictions post on 09/03 is quite an understatement. It’s been confirmed that Clint Eastwood’s thriller Juror No. 2 will release in this calendar year. You’ll see that reflected below though I don’t have the movie or Toni Collette (in Supporting Actress) or the screenplay actually projected for nominations.
Then there is, of course, more screenings from the Venice and Toronto Film Festivals. While Nightbitch is probably out of Best Picture contention, TIFF screenings suggest Amy Adams could still be a threat to make the Actress quintet. She’s back in my five. I had to make room anyway since Lady Gaga (Joker: Folie à Deux) appears to be a supporting play and not lead. I hesitated to put Adams back in as Nicole Kidman (Babygirl) and Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths) are serious threats. For that, so are Julianne Moore (The Room Next Door) and Demi Moore (The Substance). It’s getting crowded in Actress.
Speaking of Joker, the mixed reaction from Cannes causes it to drop from 11th to 20th in my BP rankings.
There are gains for The Brutalist as it rises from 3rd to 1st in the BP derby. The announcement that A24 picked up it up for distribution might mean it’s now their #1 campaign. If so, that could have a detrimental effect on Sing Sing. That helps explain Adrien Brody getting to first in Best Actor over Colman Domingo. Clarence Maclin from Sing Sing stays at #1 in Supporting Actor over The Brutalist‘s Guy Pearce though I considered making that switch. And now Brady Corbet now sitting atop the charts in Director. Blitz had previously held the #1 positions in BP and Director but they slip to #2.
In Supporting Actress, two changes as Felicity Jones (The Brutalist) and Tilda Swinton (The Room Next Door) are in and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor (Nickel Boys) and Selena Gomez (Emilia Pérez) are on the outside looking in.
And for the one change in BP, Venice’s Golden Lion winner The Room Next Door is in the 10 with A Complete Unknown falling out.
Please note that this update is the first time where Dune: Part Two is not the nomination leader. It’s now tied with 9 with Blitz and Emilia Pérez while The Brutalist sits with 10.
You can read all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (-1)
3. Anora (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (-2)
5. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-1)
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. Conclave (PR: 7) (E)
8. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: 15) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
11. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-2)
12. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 13) (+1)
12. A Real Pain (PR: 11) (-1)
14. Gladiator II (PR: 16) (+2)
15. Queer (PR: 14) (-1)
16. September 5 (PR: 23) (+7)
17. Nosferatu (PR: 17) (E)
18. The Apprentice (PR: 22) (+4)
19. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 19) (E)
20. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (-9)
21. The Piano Lesson (PR: 18) (-3)
22. Wicked (PR: 21) (-1)
23. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
24. His Three Daughters (PR: Not Ranked)
25. A Different Man (PR: 25) (E)
Dropped Out:
Nightbitch
Maria
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Brady Corbet, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 4) (E)
5. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Jason Reitman, Saturday Night (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Pedro Almodóvar, The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
12. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 15) (+2)
14. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 13) (-1)
15. Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light (PR: 14) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 3) (E)
4. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 4) (E)
5. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 6) (E)
7. Nicole Kidman, Babygirl (PR: 9) (+2)
8. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 11) (-1)
13. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 13) (E)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux – moved to supporting
Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist (PR: 3) (+2)
2. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 13) (E)
14. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 14) (E)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
André Holland, The Actor
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (E)
3. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from lead Actress
10. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Fernanda Montenegro, I’m Still Here (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Kathy Burke, Blitz
Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist (PR: 2) (E)
3. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 3) (E)
4. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 6) (E)
7. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (E)
14. Ray Fisher, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
15. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 15) (+1)
Dropped Out:
Stephen Graham, Blitz
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+3)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (E)
7. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 9) (+2)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Substance (PR: 12) (+3)
10. Hard Truths (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 14) (+2)
13. September 5 (PR: 11) (-2)
14. A Different Man (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Juror No. 2 (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. The Room Next Door (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Queer (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Hit Man (PR: 7) (E)
8. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (+1)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (-1)
10. I’m Still Here (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Gladiator II (PR: 13) (+2)
12. Nightbitch (PR: 10) (-2)
13. Inside Out 2 (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+1)
15. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
The Fire Inside
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 2) (E)
3. I’m Still Here (PR: 3) (E)
4. Grand Tour (PR: 4) (E)
5. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Universal Language (PR: 8) (+2)
7. The Girl with the Needle (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Caught by the Tides (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Kneecap (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Simon of the Mountain (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Count of Monte Cristo
Cloud
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Flow (PR: 3) (E)
4. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (E)
5. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Savages (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Orion and the Dark (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. No Other Land (PR: 4) (+2)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Sugarcane (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Union (PR: Not Ranked)
8. Apocalypse in the Tropics (PR: 10) (+2)
9. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 9) (E)
10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
The Remarkable Life of Ibelin
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (+4)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Blitz (PR: 1) (-2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Anora (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Conclave (PR: Not Ranked)
10. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Wicked (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Blitz (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: Not Ranked)
7. Maria (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (-1)
10. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Queer
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Anora (PR: 3) (+1)
3. The Brutalist (PR: 7) (+4)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Saturday Night (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-4)
7. Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Conclave (PR: 5) (-4)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. A Different Man (PR: 3) (E)
4. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Maria (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Wicked (PR: 6) (E)
7. Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Substance (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Gladiator II (PR: 9) (-1)
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
3. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Conclave (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (-6)
9. Queer (PR: 7) (-2)
10. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Challengers
Blitz
Nickel Boys
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. “Mi Camino” from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. “Like a Bird” from Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (+1)
4. “Piece by Piece” from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (+1)
5. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. “Kiss the Sky” from The Wild Robot (PR: Not Ranked)
7. “We’re Back” from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. “El Mal” from Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. “The Journey” from The Six Triple Eight (PR: Not Ranked)
10. “Why Am I Here?” from Shirley (PR: 8) (-1)
Dropped Out:
TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux
“Compress/Repress” from Challengers
“Ain’t No Love in Oklahoma” from Twisters
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. The Brutalist (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Saturday Night (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Wicked (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Conclave (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Joker: Folie à Deux
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Nosferatu (PR: 8) (+2)
7. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Wicked (PR: 6) (-3)
10. The Brutalist (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Civil War
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (E)
4. Twisters (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Here (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Blitz (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 7) (E)
8. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Better Man (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Wicked (PR: 8) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Alien: Romulus
And that equates to these movies generating these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
The Brutalist
9 Nominations
Blitz, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez
7 Nominations
Sing Sing
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II
4 Nominations
Conclave, Nosferatu
3 Nominations
The Room Next Door, Saturday Night
2 Nominations
Maria, Nickel Boys, Queer, A Real Pain, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
1 Nomination
All We Imagine as Light, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Complete Unknown, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, A Different Man, Flow, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, Grand Tour, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Memoir of a Snail, The Outrun, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Piano Lesson, Piece by Piece, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Sugarcane, Twisters, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, Wicked
Hasbro’s robotic franchise goes animated for the first time in nearly 40 years when Transformers One debuts next weekend. Chris Hemsworth, Scarlett Johansson, Brian Tyree Henry, Keegan-Michael Key, Steve Buscemi, Laurence Fishburne, and Jon Hamm provide voiceover work. Josh Cooley, who helmed Animated Feature winner Toy Story 4 from 2010, directs.
Critical reaction is mostly on the plus side and that’s more than can be said for some other titles in the group. The RT score is 89% with Metacritic at 62. The Tomatoes meter is on par with Bumblebee‘s 90% and far ahead of any others in the series. It also tops the 62% that 1986’s animated The Transformers: The Movie managed.
That said, I doubt this Transformers entry gets the Academy’s attention. 2007’s Transformers earned 3 nods for Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects. The 2009 sequel Revenge of the Fallen nabbed a sole Sound Mixing mention. 2011’s Dark of the Moon received the same 3 noms as the ’07 original. 2017’s Transformers: The Last Knight, of course, was that year’s Best Picture. Nearly everything in this paragraph is true.
Transformers One could compete in Animated Feature, but I’ve yet to put it near my high five. If last year’s acclaimed Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem couldn’t make the cut, I don’t think this does. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Once known as Flint Strong due to the protagonist’s Michigan hometown, the retitled The Fire Inside premiered at the Toronto Film Festival. Scheduled for a Christmas Day domestic bow, Rachel Morrison (an Oscar nominated cinematographer for Mudbound) makes her directorial debut. Ryan Destiny stars as Olympic boxer Claressa “T-Rex” Shields with Brian Tyree Henry as her coach. Barry Jenkins, the acclaimed maker of Best Picture winning Moonlight, wrote the script.
Reviews say the sports flick mostly lands its dramatic punches. The RT score is 91% with a 69 on Metacritic. Despite the pedigree, I doubt Amazon MGM enters the awards ring here. One potential exception is with Henry who was a bit of a surprise Supporting Actor hopeful for 2022’s Causeway. He would likely be an unexpected contender, but it’s a small possibility. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
I have been penning a number of posts in the past few days based on reactions to screenings from the Toronto Film Festival. Anand Tucker’s The Critic is another, but it premiered at last year’s TIFF and is finally hitting theaters in the UK this weekend. Ian McKellen headlines the thriller as the London theater title character engaged in a blackmail scheme. Gemma Arterton, Mark Strong, Ben Barnes, Alfred Enoch, and Lesley Manville costar.
The film has taken its time finding a release schedule. That’s probably because reaction was decidedly mixed upon its Canadian unveiling. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 45% with a Metacritic score of 53. Despite some expected compliments for Mr. McKellen, this Critic will not be considered by voters in awards season. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
If you see one biopic this year where the subject is primarily played by a CG monkey, some reviews are saying Better Man is that film. Michael Gracey’s follow-up to his smash hit musical The Greatest Showman premiered at Telluride before traveling to Toronto. It chronicles the life of Take That singer Robbie Williams and, yes, he’s portrayed as a motion-capture simian. Jonno Davies handles some voiceover work as the crooner with Alison Steadman and Steve Pemberton in the supporting cast.
Hitting theaters stateside in a limited fashion on Christmas Day, critics are claiming this is an unconventional and gimmicky genre piece. Most are also saying it kinda pulls it off as far as entertainment value goes. The RT score is 85%. Paramount could make a push for Better Man to be included in the Visual Effects derby thanks to that monkey. I doubt it contends anywhere else. This is likely a case where if it makes the shortlist of hopefuls in VE, it probably gets in. Getting there could be tricky. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The last time the Transformers franchise went fully animated on the big screen, it was in 1986 in The Transformers: The Movie. It was a flop but has since developed a cult following and it awesomely featured the voices of everyone from Eric Idle to Judd Nelson to Leonard Nimoy to Casey Kasem to Orson Welles. Since then, Paramount and Hasbro have earned billions from their live-action robot mayhem movies. The franchise goes back to animation in Transformers One on September 20th. From Toy Story 4 director Josh Cooley, this might not have Casey Kasem or Charles Foster Kane. There are voiceover contributions from Chris Hemsworth, Brian Tyree Henry, Scarlett Johansson, Keegan-Michael Key, Steve Buscemi, Laurence Fishburne, and Jon Hamm.
Early word-of-mouth is encouraging for the sci-fi action tale and that could help post Transformers: Rise of the Beasts. It came out last summer and ended up as the lowest grosser of the series with $157 million domestically. Expectations are not lofty for One and it could end up making less than Beasts. I’m pegging this for a mid 30s beginning.
Transformers One opening weekend prediction: $35.4 million
A24 has premiered Heretic at the Toronto Film Festival before it hits multiplexes on November 15th. The psychological horror pic casts Sophie Thatcher and Chloe East as Mormon missionaries who knock on Hugh Grant’s wrong door. Scott Beck and Bryan Woods co-direct. They are best known for penning the wildly successful A Quiet Place in 2018. On the flip side, they helmed and scripted Adam Driver’s dino adventure 65 last year. It was a box office and critical failure.
Early reaction from Canada indicates that Heretic mostly succeeds. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 89 with Metacritic at 67. Critics are certainly directing their applause to Grant in his creepy role. Despite four Golden Globe nominations for feature films (all in Musical/Comedy and he won for 1994’s Four Weddings and a Funeral), the Academy has yet to mention his name. That won’t change here as this genre rarely gets noticed by the voters. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blumhouse’s Speak No Evil has developed some consensus approaching its Friday the 13th release. The thriller from director James Watkins stars James McAvoy, Mackenzie Davis, Aisling Franciosi, and Scoot McNairy.
A remake of a well-regarded 2022 Danish effort by Christian Tafdrup, most reviews say the American version doesn’t match intensity or shock value of the original. Write-ups are still saying it’s effective as it sports an 88% Rotten Tomatoes rating and 63 Metacritic score.
Critics are lauding the work of McAvoy in this genre once again. That’s reminiscent of their praise for his work in 2017’s Split by M. Night Shyamalan. McAvoy managed to generate some awards buzz for that blockbuster. I doubt he’ll get that chatter for Speak. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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