Based on Colleen Hoover’s 2016 bestseller, the romantic drama It Ends with Us begins what should be a fruitful box office run this weekend. Justin Baldoni directs and costars with Blake Lively. The supporting cast includes Brandon Sklenar, Jenny Slate, and Hasan Minhaj.
Despite its financial prospects looking encouraging (it should finish a strong second behind Deadpool & Wolverine starring Lively’s hubby), Oscar possibilities are considerably weaker. The melodrama stands at 61% on RT and that won’t start any awards conversation. I will note the current rating is higher than 2022’s Where the Crawdads Sing (34%) which this is frequently being compared to. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Fede Álvarez, best known for his Evil Dead remake and Don’t Breathe, takes over a classic 45-year-old franchise when Alien: Romulus touches down on August 16th. Set between the events of Alien and Aliens, the seventh entry in the series (not counting those two battles with Predator) features Civil War‘s Cailee Spaeny, David Jonsson, Archie Renaux, Isabela Merced, and Spike Fearn.
Originally conceived as a Hulu streaming release, 20th Century Studios rethought their strategy to allow a summer theatrical bow. This is the first Alien feature in seven years since Ridley Scott’s Alien: Covenant and the first since Disney acquired the property.
If Romulus matched the $36 million that Covenant started off with, that should be considered a win. I say that because the predecessor plummeted after its first weekend and grossed an underwhelming $74 million overall domestically.
I’ll project that this gets a bit under that starting Covenant figure as it’ll hope to have sturdier legs in subsequent weekends.
Alien: Romulus opening weekend prediction: $35.2 million
For my Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure prediction, click here:
Blogger’s Updates (08/08): Two updates for the newcomers on the eve of their premieres. Bumping It Ends with Us from $39.8 million to $43.8 million and downsizing Borderlands from $11.3 million to $8.1 million.
After the 8th best second weekend of all time at the domestic box office, Deadpool & Wolverine should rule the charts for a third frame. Yet the most serious competition for Ryan Reynolds thus far will come from his wife Blake Lively. That’s courtesy of the romantic drama It Ends with Us based on the bestseller from Colleen Hoover. Its breakout potential could cause it to over perform even beyond my forecast. We also have the video game based sci-fi action comedy Borderlands with Cate Blanchett and Kevin Hart. My detailed prediction posts on both newbies can be found here:
It Ends should begin with impressive numbers. The source material looks to bring in a sizable female audience who have been underserved in these summer months. My low to mid 30s call puts it easily in second and I could envision it going even higher.
I’m not expecting fireworks for Borderlands. Despite its video game series being popular, my low double digits take would place it in fourth behind the fourth go-round for Twisters.
Deadpool & Wolverine should lose about half its sophomore weekend crowd and that would give it high 40s for a third championship session.
Despicable Me 4 may only fall one slot to fifth. The percentage drop should be meager compared to M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap. His latest thriller underwhelmed (more on that below) and I foresee it plummeting around 60% to sixth place.
Here’s how I see that top 6 playing out:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $49.6 million
2. It Ends with Us
Predicted Gross: $43.8 million
3. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $13.9 million
4. Despicable Me 4
Predicted Gross: $8.6 million
5. Borderlands
Predicted Gross: $8.1 million
6. Trap
Predicted Gross: $6.1 million
Box Office Results (August 9-11)
As mentioned, Deadpool & Wolverine managed the 8th largest weekend #2 with $96.8 million, easily clawing beyond my $84.6 million prediction. The MCU mashup has amassed $395 million in only ten days.
Twisters held tight in second with $22.8 million, blowing past my $18.1 million estimate. In three weeks, the sequel has hit $195 million with $200 million coming this week.
Mr. Shyamalan’s Trap performed in line with predecessors Old and Knock at the Cabin. In third place, the $15.4 million gross was under my $19.2 million projection. This opening is certainly on the lower end of the expected range and the C+ Cinemascore grade suggests the aforementioned large drop is coming.
Despicable Me 4 was fourth with $11.4 million compared to my $9.4 million call. The five-week total is $314 million.
Inside Out 2 rounded out the top five with $6.8 million for $626 million so far in eight weeks. I incorrectly had it outside the high five.
That’s because the family friendly and poorly reviewed Harold and the Purple Crayon couldn’t draw its crowd. With $6 million in sixth place, it fell under my $7.6 million prediction.
Is Saturday Night alright for Oscar? Jason Reitman’s latest picture chronicles the premiere of SNL back in 1975. The surprise announcement this week is that it has wrapped production and will hit theaters on October 11th. That’s exactly 49 years after the iconic NBC sketch show debuted.
One week after the Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown joined the 2024 calendar, Saturday will try to get into the Academy mix. The most likely categories for the Sony release are significant ones – Picture, Director, and especially Original Screenplay. The cast also presents some possibilities like Gabriel LaBelle (from The Fabelmans) as Lorne Michaels. I’m assuming he’d be campaigned for in lead Actor though nothing is confirmed. In Supporting Actress, let’s see if Rachel Sennott as writer Rosie Shuster and Ella Hunt as legendary cast member Gilda Radner get in the convo.
I am not elevating Saturday Night into my predictions for any race yet, but you’ll see it in the possibilities section.
The Piano Lesson gets a boost this week as it is back in BP over The Seed of the Sacred Fig. Piano‘s Samuel L. Jackson also returns to #1 in Supporting Actor with his costar Danielle Deadwyler back in the quintet for Supporting Actress. Natasha Lyonne (His Three Daughters) drops.
Mohammad Rasolouf in Director also falls out for Seed in favor of Anora‘s Sean Baker. Pedro Almodóvar’s The Room Next Door shifts from Original to Adapted Screenplay and makes my cut with Dune: Part Two on the outside looking in.
I’ll also note that Conclave is now 2nd in my projections for total nominations (9) behind Dune‘s 10.
You can peruse all the movement below!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 5) (E)
6. Anora (PR: 6) (E)
7. Queer (PR: 7) (E)
8. Nickel Boys (PR: 9) (+1)
9. A Complete Unknown (PR: 8) (-1)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: 11) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
11. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+3)
13. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 12) (-1)
14. Nightbitch (PR: 14) (E)
15. The Room Next Door (PR: 19) (+4)
16. Gladiator II (PR: 14) (-2)
17. Maria (PR: 17) (E)
18. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
19. A Real Pain (PR: 22) (+3)
20. The End (PR: 16) (-4)
21. A Different Man (PR: 23) (+2)
22. Hard Truths (PR: 20) (-2)
23. The Fire Inside (PR: 21) (-2)
24. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Here (PR: 24) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Wicked
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sean Baker, Anora (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Mohammad Rasoulof, The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 7) (E)
8. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 8) (E)
9. Robert Eggers, Nosferatu (PR: 15) (+6)
10. James Mangold, A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
11. RaMell Ross, Nickel Boys (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Ridley Scott, Gladiator II (PR: 11) (-2)
14. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Payal Kapadia, All We Imagine as Light
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 1) (E)
2. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 2) (E)
3. Mikey Madison, Anora (PR: 3) (E)
4. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (E)
5. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Julianne Moore, The Room Next Door (PR: 6) (E)
7. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (E)
8. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 8) (E)
9. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (E)
11. June Squibb, Thelma (PR: 12) (+1)
12. Demi Moore, The Substance (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 14) (E)
15. Pamela Anderson, The Last Showgirl (PR: 15) (E)
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown (PR: 4) (E)
5. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Andrè Holland, The Actor (PR: 8) (E)
9. Ethan Herisse, Nickel Boys (PR: 11) (+2)
10. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jesse Plemons, Kinds of Kindness (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: 12) (E)
13. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: 13) (E)
14. Gabriel LaBelle, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Jesse Eisenberg, A Real Pain (PR: 15) (E)
Dropped Out:
Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Nickel Boys (PR: 1) (E)
2. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (PR: 2) (E)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 3) (E)
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 4) (E)
5. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Tilda Swinton, The Room Next Door (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Selena Gomez, Emilia Pérez (PR: 8) (E)
9. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 11) (+1)
11. Elle Fanning, A Complete Unknown (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Glenn Close, The Deliverance (PR: 12) (E)
13. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 13) (E)
14. Valeria Golino, Maria (PR: 14) (E)
15. Rachel Sennott, Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Kathy Burke, Blitz
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 2) (+1)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (-1)
3. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (E)
5. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 10) (+1)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 8) (-2)
11. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown (PR: 14) (+3)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Hamish Linklater, Nickel Boys (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Mark Eidelstein, Anora (PR: 12) (-2)
15. Paul Raci, Sing Sing (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Scoot McNairy, Nightbitch
Best Original Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Anora (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (+3)
4. A Real Pain (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Hard Truths (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. The Seed of the Sacred Fig (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Saturday Night (PR: Not Ranked)
8. His Three Daughters (PR: 8) (E)
9. The End (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 12) (+2)
11. Dídi (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Challengers (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 13) (E)
14. A Different Man (PR: Not Ranked)
15. The Substance (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
The Room Next Door (moved to Adapted Screenplay)
All We Imagine as Light
I Saw the TV Glow
Best Adapted Screenplay
Predicted Nominees:
1. Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nickel Boys (PR: 3) (E)
4. Queer (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Room Next Door (PR: Not Ranked) – moved from Original Screenplay
Other Possibilities:
6. The Piano Lesson (PR: 6) (E)
7. Dune: Part Two (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Nightbitch (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Hit Man (PR: 8) (-1)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Inside Out 2 (PR: 11) (-1)
13. Nosferatu (PR: 14) (+1)
14. Gladiator II (PR: 12) (-2)
15. The Fire Inside (PR: 13) (-2)
Dropped Out:
Here
Best International Feature Film
Predicted Nominees:
1. Emila Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. I’m Still Here (PR: 2) (E)
3. Grand Tour (PR: 5) (+2)
4. The Count of Monte Cristo (PR: 4) (E)
5. The Girl with the Needle (PR: Not Ranked)
Other Possibilities:
6. All We Imagine as Light (PR: 3) (-3)
7. Evil Does Not Exist (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Uprising (PR: 7) (-1)
9. Caught by the Tides (PR: 6) (-3)
10. Kneecap (PR: 9) (-1)
Dropped Out:
Simon of the Mountain
Best Animated Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Inside Out 2 (PR: 1) (E)
2. The Wild Robot (PR: 2) (E)
3. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Memoir of a Snail (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Flow (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Piece by Piece (PR: 6) (E)
7. Moana 2 (PR: 7) (E)
8. Savages (PR: 8) (E)
9. The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Transformers One (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Orion and the Dark
Best Documentary Feature
Predicted Nominees:
1. Daughters (PR: 1) (E)
2. Black Box Diaries (PR: 2) (E)
3. Will & Harper (PR: 3) (E)
4. Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat (PR: 5) (+1)
5. No Other Land (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sugarcane (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Gaucho Gaucho (PR: 8) (E)
9. Union (PR: 9) (E)
10. Skywalkers: A Love Story (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Frida
Best Cinematography
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Queer (PR: 10) (+5)
Other Possibilities:
6. Anora (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Conclave (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Gladiator II (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A Complete Unknown (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Maria
Best Costume Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Wicked (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Nosferatu (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Blitz (PR: 4) (-3)
8. Maria (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 10) (E)
Best Film Editing
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Anora (PR: 4) (+1)
4. Conclave (PR: 3) (-1)
5. Emilia Pérez (PR: 7) (+2)
Other Possibilities:
6. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Sing Sing (PR: 8) (+1)
8. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Queer (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Challengers (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Gladiator II
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Nosferatu (PR: 2) (E)
3. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 3) (E)
4. A Different Man (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wicked (PR: 6) (+1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Beetlejuice Beetlejuice (PR: 7) (E)
8. Maria (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Sasquatch Sunset (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
Best Original Score
Predicted Nominees
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. Queer (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Sing Sing (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Blitz (PR: 7) (E)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Challengers (PR: 9) (E)
10. The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Here
Best Original Song
Predicted Nominees:
1. TBD from Emilia Pérez (PR: 1) (E)
2. TBD from Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 2) (E)
3. TBD from Sing Sing (PR: 6) (+3)
4. “Relentless” from Diane Warren: Relentless (PR: 4) (E)
5. TBD from Piece by Piece (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. TBD from Moana 2 (PR: 7) (+1)
7. “Harper and Will Go West” from Will & Harper (PR: 10) (+3)
8. TBD from Wicked (PR: 3) (-5)
9. TBD from Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: 9) (E)
10. “Compress/Repress” from Challengers (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Production Design
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Blitz (PR: 2) (E)
3. Nosferatu (PR: 3) (E)
4. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (E)
5. Conclave (PR: 8) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
6. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 5) (-2)
8. Wicked (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Queer (PR: 9) (E)
10. Maria (PR: 10) (E)
Best Sound
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Gladiator II (PR: 3) (+1)
3. Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 4) (E)
5. A Complete Unknown (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Emilia Pérez (PR: 10) (+4)
7. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Twisters (PR: 9) (+1)
9. Wicked (PR: 7) (-2)
10. A Quiet Place: Day One (PR: 8) (-2)
Best Visual Effects
Predicted Nominees:
1. Dune: Part Two (PR: 1) (E)
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (PR: 2) (E)
3. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 3) (E)
4. Here (PR: 5) (+1)
5. Wicked (PR: 9) (+4)
Other Possibilities:
6. Gladiator II (PR: 4) (-2)
7. Twisters (PR: 7) (E)
8. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire (PR: 6) (-2)
9. Mufasa: The Lion King (PR: Not Ranked)
10. Deadpool & Wolverine (PR: 10) (E)
Dropped Out:
Blitz
That equates to these movies nabbing these numbers of nominations:
10 Nominations
Dune: Part Two
9 Nominations
Conclave
8 Nominations
Blitz, Emilia Pérez
5 Nominations
Anora, Gladiator II, Joker: Folie à Deux, Queer, Sing Sing
4 Nominations
Nosferatu
3 Nominations
A Complete Unknown, Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Wicked
2 Nominations
A Different Man, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, A Real Pain
1 Nomination
Black Box Diaries, The Count of Monte Cristo, Daughters, Diane Warren: Relentless, Flow, The Girl with the Needle, Grand Tour, Hard Truths, Here, I’m Still Here, Inside Out 2, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, Maria, Memoir of a Snail, Nightbitch, No Other Land, The Outrun, Piece by Piece, The Room Next Door, Soundtrack to a Coup d’Etat, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot, Will & Harper
I wonder if M. Night Shyamalan cast Hayley Mills in Trap because it is about a parent being trapped at a concert. Josh Hartnett’s Cooper/The Butcher isn’t just stuck at that Lady Raven show. He’s held captive by memories of an abusive mother and maintaining a double life as doting dad and demented serial killer. Ms. Mills pulled double duty in Disney’s The Parent Trap some 60 plus years ago. It is nice to see her in a high profile project as an FBI profiler. Doesn’t it, however, seem like the type of weird Shyamalan touch to put her in the picture simply due to the title connection?
M. Night’s Disney breakout The Sixth Sense and follow-ups Unbreakable and Signs still stand as career highlights. You do know that his unnatural dialogue will be a constant and that’s even if those aforementioned strongest efforts. It’s present in Trap, but the wooden acting that often accompanies his thrillers is thankfully missing.
Hartnett, in his first leading role in a while, treats his teenage daughter Riley (Ariel Donoghue) to floor seats for pop sensation Lady Raven. She’s played by the writer/director’s own offspring Saleka. While enduring such a performance might be a chore for any middle-aged dad, he’s got bigger problems. As a kindly and quick to spew exposition T-shirt merchant (Jonathan Langdon) informs Cooper, the whole afternoon gig is an elaborate sting to nab 12 time murderer The Butcher.
That would, of course, be Cooper and he’s phone monitoring unlucky #13 tied up in a basement somewhere. Now he must pretend to enjoy the entertainment while searching for a way to bypass the heavy security and keep Riley relatively unsuspicious. To be fair, daughters that age probably think their dads are acting strangely without believing they’re homicidal maniacs.
This concept managed to put me in an odd and at times darkly enjoyable position. I found myself rooting for Cooper to solve this complicated puzzle and outwit the FBI being led by the former Mouse House child star. It works on Shyamalan’s terms for about one hour. Then it becomes considerably more convoluted and less engrossing.
The cast is not to blame. It’s amusing to watch Hartnett volley back and forth between personalities and Donoghue convinces in her bracelet donning fangirl love for the headliner. Saleka Shyamlan is fine while onstage though her more meaningful contributions unfortunately come later as the screenplay is unraveling.
I’ll make a concert analogy. The first couple of acts feel like Shyamalan playing his greatest hits dependably while not exactly knocking it out of the park. The encores have the sense of that artist bizarrely playing new tracks from an unreleased album. It’s not what we want and it goes on for longer that it has a right to.
It has been a quarter century since The Sixth Sense was a box office phenomenon that turned writer/director M. Night Shyamalan into a household name. The Academy took notice and rewarded the suspense thriller with six nominations including Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay. It lost each of those races to American Beauty.
Since then, the sole Oscar nod for an M. Night joint is 2004’s The Village in Original Score (it fell short to Finding Neverland). In fact, his filmography has garnered more Razzie attention in the last two decades with Lady in the Water, The Happening, The Last Airbender, and After Earth.
Trap is the filmmaker’s latest with Josh Hartnett as a serial killer boxed in at a concert with his daughter (Ariel Donoghue). Costars include Saleka Shyamalan, Hayley Mills, and Alison Pill.
Like his most recent tales Old and Knock at the Cabin, critical reaction isn’t near strong enough for awards buzz. The RT rating for Trap is just 49%. On the flip side, the buzz probably isn’t poor enough for the Razzies to notice. Some reviews are going out of their way to applaud Josh Hartnett (similar to how they lauded James McAvoy’s work in Shyamalan’s Split). Don’t expect Academy voters to put him in the convo for Actor. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
From Tony Gerber and Jesse Moss (who co-directed the acclaimed Boys State) comes War Game in limited release this weekend. The documentary casts real-life officials from previous Presidential administrations in a mock exercise where democracy is threatened. It is set on January 6, 2025.
Not to be confused with 1983’s techie thriller WarGames with Matthew Broderick, Ally Sheedy, and Dabney Coleman, War Game first hit the festival circuit at Sundance in January. Reviews are not overwhelmingly positive as it sports a 73% RT rating.
That is probably not enough for this to enter the Documentary Feature conversation for the 97th Academy Awards. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (08/08): On the eve of its premiere, I’m downsizing my estimate from $11.3 million to $8.1 million
For quite some, “based on a video game” was a kiss of death for cinematic adaptations. Some of the massive failures include 1993’s live-action Super Mario Bros., Double Dragon, Wing Commander, and Max Payne. That trend has reversed in recent years with hits like Uncharted, last year’s animated The Super Mario Bros. Movie, and Five Nights at Freddy’s. So where Eli Roth’s Borderlands land? I suspect it might fail to break out.
The sci-fi action comedy is spawned from one of the most successful game franchises that began 15 years ago. An impressive cast includes Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jack Black (doing voiceover work), Edgar Ramirez, Ariana Greenblatt, Florian Munteanu, Gina Gershon, Haley Bennett, Bobby Lee, and Jamie Lee Curtis.
Some die-hard aficionados of the role-playing first-person shooter series will obviously turn up. Crossover appeal, despite the recognizable cast, could be a tall order. A debut of over $20 million should be considered a win, but I think it might stall out in the low double digits.
Borderlands opening weekend prediction: $8.1 million
Based on the 1955 kids book by Crockett Johnson, Harold and the Purple Crayon looks to draw in family audiences this weekend. That could be a struggle. Directed by Carlos Sandanha (who’s been heavily involved in the Ice Age franchise), the mix of live-action and animation stars Zachary Levi, Lil Rel Howery, Zooey Deschanel, Alfred Molina, Jemaine Clement, and Tanya Reynolds.
The buzz is muted as kiddos and paying parents have spent their summer cash on Inside Out 2 and Despicable Me 4. The Rotten Tomatoes score for Crayon is only 36%. The sole Oscar race this would be in contention for is Visual Effects. Despite some of the negative reviews giving the special effects a pass, it is not enough for this to enter the awards mix. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Blogger’s Update (08/08): On the eve of its premiere, bumping my estimate from $39.8 million to $43.8 million
Blake Lively’s husband Ryan Reynolds will certainly have the largest summer 2024 opening with Deadpool & Wolverine, but her romantic drama It Ends with Us could be poised for an impressive beginning. Based on a 2016 novel by Colleen Hoover that was a huge bestseller, Lively costars with Justin Baldoni. He also handles directorial duties. The supporting cast includes Jenny Slate, Hasan Minhaj, and Brandon Sklenar.
Originally set for release in February, then June, and finally settling on the August date, Ends should be shrewd seasonal counter programming. The Sony release could perform similarly to last year’s Where the Crawdads Sing. It was also based on a wildly popular book. Opening to $17 million in July 2022, it eventually legged out to $90 million domestically.
Ends might even be more front loaded. Some estimates have this in the $25 million range. My hunch is to go higher in the upper 30s to even low 40s.
It Ends with Us opening weekend prediction: $43.8 million
All My Life... I Wanted To Be A Blogster 