The Forge is the latest faith-based drama from director Alex Kendrick and his brother/cowriter Stephen Kendrick. With Sony Pictures distributing, it makes its way to theaters August 23rd. A spin-off to 2015’s surprise hit War Room, the cast features Cameron Arnett, Priscilla Shirer, Aspen Kennedy, Karen Abercrombie, and T.C. Stallings.
Nearly a decade ago, War Room debuted far beyond expectations at $11.4 million on its way to a $67 million domestic haul. The Kendricks’ follow-up, 2019’s Overcomer, couldn’t match those figures with an $8 million start and $34 million overall.
The lengthy break between Room and Forge could limit its drawing power. I still think high single digits and even $10 million is possible. However, my take puts it just behind fellow newbies Blink Twice and The Crow.
The Forge opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million
Zoë Kravitz’s directorial debut Blink Twice and The Crow reboot make their way to multiplexes this weekend, but the top 3 may look familiar… albeit with a potential change at the top. We also have the faith-based drama The Forge (a spin-off of the surprise 2015 hit War Room) entering the fray. My detailed prediction posts on the newcomers can be accessed here:
The dog days of August are when newbies can struggle to find an audience. I have Blink and The Crow separated by about a million bucks with both falling under $10 million. Set to premiere on more screens, I’m giving Blink the slight edge for a fourth place finish with The Crow landing in fifth.
The Forge is a potential wild card. I wouldn’t be shocked if it cleared $10 million and contended for fourth or even third. Yet I have it just behind the other debuts for a sixth place showing.
Alien: Romulus started toward the higher end of expectations (more on that below). It also nabbed a better Cinemascore grade (B+) than the B’s generated by predecessors Prometheus and Alien: Covenant. In 2012, Prometheus fell a steep 59% in its sophomore outing while 2017’s Covenant took a 71% nosedive. I’ll say Romulus eases in the mid to upper 50s for a late teens second frame.
If Deadpool & Wolverine only experiences a mid 30s decline, the MCU juggernaut could rise back to #1 and that’s what I’m envisioning. It Ends with Us from Mrs. Deadpool aka Blake Lively should hold third position in the low teens.
Here’s how I see the top 6 playing out:
1. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $19.2 million
2. Alien: Romulus
Predicted Gross: $17.8 million
3. It Ends with Us
Predicted Gross: $13.4 million
4. Blink Twice
Predicted Gross: $8.5 million
5. The Crow
Predicted Gross: $7.4 million
6. The Forge
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
Box Office Results (August 16-18)
Disney/20th Century Studios had another winner on their hands as Alien: Romulus easily got to 1st place with $42 million, ahead of my $35.2 million prediction. With mostly complimentary reviews, audiences were ready for a seventh series entry that built upon the $36 million start of Covenant seven summers ago. It did not reach the $51 million heights that Prometheus managed.
Deadpool & Wolverine slipped to second after three weeks in the pole position. The superhero mashup took in $30 million, right on target with my $29.5 million forecast for $546 million thus far.
It Ends with Us dwindled an understandable 52% with a third place $23.8 million finish. I went a little higher at $27.9 million as the romantic drama is nearing the century mark after ten days at $97 million.
Twisters was fourth with $10 million, in line with my $9.8 million forecast for a five-week tally of $238 million.
Finally, the 15th anniversary re-release of the stop-motion animated fantasy Coraline rounded out the top five with $9.8 million. I incorrectly didn’t factor it in my estimates. The extra cash brought its total since 2009 to $87 million.
MGM looks for audiences to set their sights on Blink Twice when it opens August 23rd. The thriller marks the directorial debut of Zoë Kravitz with an eclectic cast including Naomi Ackie, Channing Tatum, Christian Slater, Simon Rex, Adria Arjona, Kyle MacLachlan, Haley Joel Osment, Geena Davis, and Alia Shawkat.
Reviews thus far are decent with 79% on Rotten Tomatoes. Late August typically isn’t fertile ground for fresh product at the box office. Blink face an uphill battle. It is slated for approximately 3000 screens and that’s more than The Crow is reportedly getting (2600).
There could be a close race between those two newcomers as I see both in the high single digits or lower double digits. I currently having this flying a little higher.
Blink Twice opening weekend prediction: $8.5 million
A thriller with a dose of camp, Skincare is out in limited fashion this weekend via IFC Films. From director Austin Peters, Elizabeth Banks stars as a celebrity aesthetician in hot water. The supporting cast includes Lewis Pullman, Michaela Jaé Rodriguez, Luis Gerardo Méndez, and Nathan Fillion.
Banks has had a multifaceted career in the last few years. While continuing to pop up in acting roles, she’s become just as known for hosting the TV game show Press Your Luck and her behind the camera work with Cocaine Bear being the most recent example.
Her headlining turn in Skincare has generated some cheers from critics. Reviews of the picture are far more mixed at 63% on Rotten Tomatoes. That’s not a foundation where awards talk will occur. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Lee Daniels is in horror mode for the first time with The Deliverance, out in limited theatrical release this weekend before an August 30th Netflix streaming bow. The supernatural tale is inspired by real events with a cast led by Andra Day and Glenn Close. Costars include Rob Morgan, Caleb McLaughlin, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, Tasha Smith, Omar Epps, and Mo’Nique.
Fifteen years ago, Daniels had an awards breakout when Precious landed six Oscar nods including a Supporting Actress victory for Mo’Nique. 2021’s The United States vs. Billie Holiday saw Day contending for lead Actress. Yet any chatter among this acting troupe in The Deliverance has not centered on them. Same goes for Ellis-Taylor, recently up in supporting for King Richard. Her role here is said to be smaller and she is far likelier to be in the mix with the upcoming Nickel Boys.
This brings us to Glenn Close. The eight-time Academy nominee has infamously come up short eight times. Some early write-ups have said her performance is impressive. However, the 47% Rotten Tomatoes score and its genre should rule out a ninth at bat. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Lionsgate Films is currently reeling from Borderlands performing a box office belly flop. On August 23rd, they hope The Crow reboot flies higher with moviegoers. Bill Skarsgård trades in the Pennywise makeup for the comic book based vigilante hero first made famous onscreen 30 years ago by Brandon Lee (who was killed in an onset tragedy during filming). Costars include FKA Twigs, Danny Huston, and Josette Simon. Rupert Sanders, who was behind the camera on Snow White and the Huntsman and Ghost in the Shell, directs.
While this is the fifth feature in the franchise, it is the first in nearly 20 years. Fun fact: Skarsgård is the fifth actor to play the title role following Lee, Vincent Perez, Eric Mabius, and Edward Furlong. The last two entries from 2000 and 2005 experienced limited theatrical runs before going the direct-to-video route.
1994’s original gained plenty of notoriety due to the death of its lead. It also struck a chord with youth culture and was assisted by a hit soundtrack. Fans of that picture are three decades older and probably have little interest in this long-in-development project which at times had Bradley Cooper, Jason Momoa, and others attached.
The marketing campaign seems muted. General brand recognition could get this to $10 million, but it may fall a bit under that. That’s not much to crow about considering the reported $50 million budget.
The six Alien features that preceded Alien: Romulus in the last four and a half decades have yielded an impressive 11 Oscar nominations and 3 victories. Fede Àlvarez, best known for 2013’s Evil Dead remake and Don’t Breathe, directs the first entry in seven years as Romulus attacks theaters this weekend. Cailee Spaeny (who probably came fairly close to an Academy nom last year for Priscilla), David Jonsson, Archie Renaux, Isabela Merced, and Spike Fearn star.
Reviews are doling out praise for its vibe that many critics say closely resemble the classic first two tales (1979’s Alien and 1986’s Aliens). On the other hand, some write-ups say it relies too much on nostalgia. The RT score is 82% and that tops the scores of its four immediate predecessors and places it third behind the aforementioned genre landmarks.
Let’s take a quick trip through awards history with the series. The original Alien from Ridley Scott won Best Visual Effects and was nominated for Art Direction (losing to All That Jazz). James Cameron’s 1986 follow-up Aliens landed a whopping seven nods and took Visual Effects and Sound Effects Editing. The other handful of mentions were for Sigourney Weaver in Actress (who fell short to Marlee Matlin from Children of a Lesser God), Art Direction (A Room with a View won), Original Score (which went to Round Midnight), and Film Editing and Sound (both of which that year’s BP victor Platoon picked up). 1992’s Alien 3 was a Visual Effects nominee with Death Becomes Her grabbing the prize. Five years later, Alien: Resurrection went empty-handed in terms of mentions. 2012’s Prometheus returned Ridley Scott to the director’s chair and a Visual Effects nom occurred with Life of Pi victorious. Finally, 2017’s Alien Covenant did not factor into any race.
So where does that leave Romulus? The production design and visual effects are being noted. The latter is where it is likeliest to contend. That said it would be behind Dune: Part Two, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and probably Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga already. There’s plenty of other contenders already out or scheduled for fall. Don’t be surprised if this is the second Alien saga to be left off the Academy’s ballots, but VE is feasible. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Alien: Romulus will attempt to dethrone Deadpool & Wolverine after three weeks atop the charts while Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure looks to bring in youngsters and their parents. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
The seventh feature in the Alien series dating back 45 years should grind out a #1 showing if it manages to hit in the lower to mid 30s or above. I have it coming in a bit under what 2017 predecessor Alien: Covenant achieved ($36 million).
Deadpool & Wolverine would fall to the #2 slot in its fourth frame, easing somewhere between 40-45%. It Ends with Us, starring Mrs. Deadpool Blake Lively, might lose around half its audience in its sophomore outing after a spectacular start (more on that below).
As for Ryan’s World the Movie: Titans Universe Adventure, it’s a giant question mark. Based on a popular YouTube channel that attracts plenty of kiddos, I have it in the mid single digits. That would put it in fifth after Twisters. However, I do think it has the capacity to over perform. Or… it could totally flop. I freely admitted in my longer write-up that I’m flying blind with this one.
Here’s how I envision the top 5 playing out:
1. Alien: Romulus
Predicted Gross: $35.2 million
2. Deadpool & Wolverine
Predicted Gross: $29.5 million
3. It Ends with Us
Predicted Gross: $27.9 million
4. Twisters
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
5. Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure
Predicted Gross: $7.1 million
Box Office Results (August 9-11)
Despite a serious challenge, the MCU reigned supreme as Deadpool & Wolverine took in $53.7 million for three in a row. That figure is beyond my $49.6 million prediction as this has banked $493 million domestically so far. Worldwide it has already scored a billion bucks.
As mentioned, It Ends with Us began with a terrific premiere. Based on the bestseller by Colleen Hoover, it was runner-up with a cool $50 million (doubling the reported $25 million price tag). My estimate kept rising last week, but it still outpaced my $43.8 million projection.
Twisters was third with $15 million compared to my $13.9 million forecast as the four-week tally reached $222 million.
Borderlands, based on a well-known video game series, laid claim to biggest bomb of 2024. With a rumored budget of $120 million, the critically blasted sci-fi action tale was fourth with $8.6 million. I was on target with an $8.1 million call.
Despicable Me 4 rounded out the top five with $7.9 million (I said $8.6 million) as the animated sequel is up to $330 million after six weeks.
Finally, M. Night Shyamalan’s Trap fell 57% in weekend #2 to $6.6 million, in line with my $6.1 million take. The thriller has made a so-so $28 million in ten days.
Based on a popular children’s YouTube channel, Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure streams only in theaters starting August 16th. Albie Hecht, once a high ranking Nickelodeon exec, makes his directorial debut. The mix of live-action and Japanese animation stars the real-life Kaji family led by Ryan, his parents, and twin sisters.
Premiering on approximately 2100 screens, I will make a confession with this particular prediction. I was totally unaware of the YouTube show’s existence until shortly before writing this entry. Its numbers are impressive. The channel boasts around 37 million subscribers, putting it in the top 10 most subscribed in the country. There are nearly 60 billion total views on the platform.
That all could signal a healthy opening for this Adventure. I do wonder whether kids and their parents will flock to something for an hour and a half that they’re accustomed to digesting in short bursts for free. Fair warning: this projection could shift over the next few days. The theater count is about half of what Despicable Me 4 and Inside Out 2 rolled out with and that should limit the potential.
I’ll forecast mid to high single digits with an admission that I’m flying a bit blind here.
Ryan’s World the Movie: Titan Universe Adventure opening weekend prediction: $7.1 million
Before you laugh at me for putting “Oscar Predictions” in front of Borderlands (out tomorrow), the sci-fi action spectacle based on a popular video game series has plenty of special effects. Therefore Eli Roth’s rendering of the source material could theoretically play in Visual Effects.
It won’t. The cast includes two-time Academy Award recipient Cate Blanchett, Kevin Hart, Jack Black, Édgar Ramirez, Ariana Greenblatt, Florian Munteanu, and recent Supporting Actress winner Jamie Lee Curtis. However, this is shaping up to be one of the biggest box office bombs of 2024. With a budget reportedly in the $120 million vicinity, I don’t even have it reaching $10 million during opening weekend.
Then there’s the reviews. Oof. The embargo was lifted hours before its release and now we know why. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 3% with a grand total of one positive(ish) write-up (here’s looking at you Grace Randolph)!
You can safely assume Borderlands won’t resonate with the Academy’s voters. On the other hand, it is the likely frontrunner for the Razzie Awards early next year. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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