Month: May 2024

Oscar Predictions: Evil Does Not Exist

In 2021, Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s Drive My Car steered its acclaim to four Oscar nominations in Best Picture, Director, Adapted Screenplay, and International Feature Film (which it won). His follow-up is the eco drama Evil Does Not Exist and it is out stateside this weekend. The cast includes Hitoshi Omika, Ryo Nishikawa, Ryuji Kosaka, and Ayaka Shibutani.

About 70 minutes shorter compared to the the lengthy Car, Evil played the festival circuit last fall including Venice and Toronto. Yet its distributor decided against a 2023 release and Japan didn’t need to decide whether to submit it as their IFF contender. Their pick Perfect Days did make the cut of nominees.

Now the nation has a ’24 choice to make. Reviews are positive at 92% on RT though not as strong as Hamaguchi’s predecessor. If Japan does select it, Evil has a shot at making the IFF quintet. I do not think it will expand beyond that like Car did. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Not Another Church Movie Box Office Prediction

Tyler Perry’s many cinematic undertakings get the spoof treatment with Not Another Church Movie on May 10th. Johnny Mack directs with Kevin Daniels as Taylor Pherry (in case there was any confusion) headlining. Jamie Foxx plays God with Mickey Rourke as the Devil. Other supporting players include Vivica A. Fox, Kyla Pratt, Lamorne Morris, Tisha Campbell, and Jasmine Guy.

I wonder if this parody might be arriving a little late as the Madea heyday was a few years back (though he’s still making them). This could still succeed in bringing in a decent sized African-American crowd. I’ve yet to see a theater count and that could alter my estimate. Upper single digits would be an achievement. I’m not sure it gets that much, especially given the reported 1100 screen count.

Not Another Church Movie opening weekend prediction: $4.9 million

For my Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes prediction, click here:

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Unfrosted

You might be familiar with his TV work, but Jerry Seinfeld’s cinematic output is limited to the 2002 doc Comedian and 2007’s animated Bee Movie. He makes his directorial debut and stars in Unfrosted, which loosely tells the story of how Pop-Tarts came into our world. The cast is an impressive mix of comedic talents including Melissa McCarthy, Jim Gaffigan, Hugh Grant, Amy Schumer, and many more that are tagged in this write-up.

Premiering on Netflix this weekend, reviews are finally popping up. The late embargo is explained by the troubling 18% Rotten Tomatoes score. Indicating a rare misfire for the small screen legend, this big screen product origin tale (a popular of genre lately) was never seen as an Oscar player. Yet considering the talent onboard, Golden Globe possibilities in the Musical/Comedy derbies seemed possible. Those appear to be toast. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Box Office Prediction

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes marks the tenth franchise feature overall that began in 1968 and as a follow-up to the acclaimed and profitable trilogy from 2011-17. Out May 11th, Wes Ball (best known for The Maze Runner pics) takes over directorial duties from Matt Reeves. Set 300 years after the events of War for the Planet of the Apes, the cast includes Owen Teague, Freya Allan, Kevin Durand, Peter Macon, and William H. Macy.

Originally set for Memorial Day weekend, it was pushed up mainly to avoid a head to head with Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga. As mentioned, the last three Apes adventures were a success story for 20th Century Studios. Thirteen summers ago, Rise of the Planet of the Apes exceeded expectations with a $54 million start and $176 million overall domestically. 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes reaches a series apex with a $72 million premiere and $208 million eventual haul. 2017’s War was a slight letdown compared to its predecessor with a $56 million debut and $146 million stateside tally.

We have seen a recent example of a creature centric surpassing guesstimates in Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire. The seven year break could hurt Kingdom, but I suspect this will manage a beginning very similar to Rise and War and not Dawn.

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes opening weekend prediction: $55.2 million

For my Not Another Church Movie prediction, click here:

Not Another Church Movie Box Office Prediction

Oscar Predictions: Wildcat

Ethan Hawke, a two-time Oscar nominee for acting (Training Day, Boyhood) and a two-time nominee for writing (Before Sunset, Before Midnight), is behind the camera for Wildcat. The biographical drama is headlined by his daughter Maya Hawke as novelist Flannery O’Connor. Costars include Laura Linney, Philip Ettinger, Rafael Casal, Cooper Hoffman, Steve Zahn, Vincent D’Onofrio, Alessandro Nivola, and Liam Neeson.

It debuted at the Telluride Film Festival last September to considerably mixed reactions. Now it is heading toward a limited theatrical engagement this weekend with a RT score of just 47%. Marking Hawke’s first directorial effort since 2018’s little-seen Blaze (which received glowing reviews), this will not be a topic of awards conversations months down the line. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…