English filmmaker Andrea Arnold has been a Cannes favorite for years. Three of her works – Red Road (2006), Fish Tank (2009), and American Honey (2016) – received jury awards at the French fest. Yet her exposure to the Academy is limited to 2004’s Wasp which took Best Live Action Short Film at the ceremony two decades ago.
Arnold is hoping her longer film Bird gets love from Cannes and the Academy. Described as both gritty and full of heart, it features Barry Keoghan, Franz Rogowski, Nykiya Adams, Jason Edward Buda, James Nelson Joyce, and Jasmine Jobson.
With a 92% RT rating, some critics hint this could be the auteur’s biggest commercial breakout. It’ll be interesting to track who picks up stateside distribution rights. Whoever does will likely mount a campaign in several categories. One could be for Actress where newcomer Adams plays the 12-year-old central character. While her odds could be shaky for Oscar attention, I’d already pencil her in for a spot in Best Newcomer at the BAFTAs. There’s also Keoghan who was up two years ago in Supporting Actor for The Banshees of Inisherin. My previous prediction posts had him listed as a hopeful in Actor, but it certainly sounds like he is in support mode.
I have had Bird in my very early 10 picks in Best Picture. While reviews are positive, that could be a reach. It might depend on how hard its eventual studio pushes to know how high this flies in BP, Original Screenplay, and beyond. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Instead of saying it’s made with spirit, you can accurately say Megalopolis was made with spirits. As in wine because legendary filmmaker Francis Ford Coppola reportedly sold a hefty portion of that business to finance the $120 million production. This is Coppola’s dream project (in development since the late 1970s) and the sci-fi drama influenced by the fall of the Roman Empire has premiered at Cannes. The large cast includes Adam Driver, Giancarlo Esposito, Nathalie Emmanuel, Aubrey Plaza, Shia LaBeouf, Jon Voight, Jason Schwartzman, Talia Shire, Grace VanderWaal, Laurence Fishburne, Kathryn Hunter, Chloe Fineman, and Dustin Hoffman.
Some reaction from the Riviera is heaping praise on the long gestating picture. There’s plenty more calling it a mess (though a wildly ambitious one) and you can see it in the 47% Rotten Tomatoes rating.
At 85, Coppola is rightfully regarded as one of cinema’s most important figures. That said, for every The Godfather, The Conversation, and Apocalypse Now, there’s some flops and flicks that received middling reviews. His 2011 predecessor Twixt, for example, came and went with scant fanfare.
Despite the high profile surroundings with this unveiling, awards prospects are shaky and that might be generous. I suppose tech races like Production Design or Costume Design could happen, but I think it’s entirely possible the Academy ignores this altogether. One might think Visual Effects is doable yet that aspect is receiving its share of disparagement. The large cast should come up empty-handed too. The three Godfather sagas saw 10 performers get nominated. Based on the write-ups I’ve seen, I don’t see any of the thespians here contending. Same goes for Coppola and his movie. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Arriving 20 years after the live-action version Garfield: The Movie based on the comic strip from Jim Davis, The Garfield Movie hits multiplexes this Memorial Day weekend. Mark Dindal, who made Disney’s The Emperor’s New Groove and Chicken Little, directs. Chris Pratt, after providing the vocal stylings for Mario in The Super Mario Bros. Movie last year, mics up for the iconic tabby cat. Other voice work comes from Samuel L. Jackson, Hannah Waddingham, Ving Rhames, Nicholas Hoult, Cecily Strong, Harvey Guillén, Brett Goldstein, Bowen Yang, Janelle James, and Snoop Dogg.
The aforementioned Garfield: The Movie from two decades ago (which led to a classic comedy line from Bill Murray in Zombieland) took in $21 million for starters and $75 million overall domestically. The 2006 sequel Garfield: A Tale of Two Kitties was the equivalent of cinematic kitty litter with only $28 million total in its coffers.
This animated rendering seems poised for better results than what happened several years ago. The holiday frame should bring families out in droves and competition from the second weekend of IF may only be a minor threat.
For the Friday to Monday frame, I believe this could get a little north of $40 million.
The Garfield Movie opening weekend prediction: $41.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga prediction, click here:
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga storms into theaters this Memorial Day weekend as it hopes to improve upon the numbers of its 2015 predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road. The fifth feature of a franchise that began in 1979, George Miller returns to the director’s chair and this is the first Max tale without Max (in the form of Mel Gibson or Tom Hardy). The prequel casts Anya Taylor-Joy in the title role that Charlize Theron played nine years back. Chris Hemsworth costars along with Alyla Browne, Tom Burke, Lachy Hulme, Nathan Jones, Josh Helman, John Howard, and Angus Sampson.
With a reported budget of nearly $170 million, Warner Bros is banking on fruitful stateside returns and buoyant international results. Early signs are encouraging. Its Cannes premiere has produced an 88% RT score. While that’s not as high as Fury, word-of-mouth should be solid.
Back in 2015, Fury grossed $45 million in its mid-May opening slot en route to $153 million domestically. Furiosa will have the benefit of a four-day report due to the holiday. Hitting $50 million is achievable from Friday to Monday. I suspect it may slightly fall under that figure.
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga opening weekend prediction: $47.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
At the 88th Academy Awards covering the films of 2015, Mad Max: Fury Road received 10 nominations (the second highest behind The Revenant) and the most victories with 6. The wins were for Costume Design, Film Editing, Makeup and Hairstyling, Production Design, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. It came up short in Picture, Director (George Miller), Cinematography, and Visual Effects.
For the 97th Oscars, voters will have prequel Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga to consider. Miller’s fifth feature in the franchise that began 45 years ago has screened at Cannes prior to its Memorial Day weekend domestic release. Anya Taylor-Joy plays the title character portrayed by Charlize Theron in Fury Road. Chris Hemsworth costars along with Tom Burke, Alyla Browne, Lachy Hulme, Josh Helman, John Howard, and Angus Sampson.
Early reaction is certainly encouraging with an 87% Rotten Tomatoes rating. Some critics are claiming it’s on par with the predecessor while others say it doesn’t quite measure up (Road‘s RT score was 97%).
Saga‘s biggest hurdle to break into Picture and Director could be another sci-fi series entry from earlier this year and that is Dune: Part Two. That pic has likely punched its ticket in those two big races and there may not be room for Furiosa. That said, all those tech competitions could be in play and it could fall short to Dune in a few of them. Sound Editing and Mixing has since become one category so a best case scenario could be seven nods. There will some internet chatter for Hemsworth in Supporting Actor, but I suspect it will remain just that. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
After massive box office success with the two A Quiet Place horror pics, John Krasinski is in family mode when IF debuts Friday. Combining live-action with animation, Ryan Reynolds headlines the human cast with a ginormous list of familiar faces voicing imaginary friends from Steve Carell to Emily Blunt to George Clooney to Matt Damon and Bradley Cooper and many more.
The review embargo is up and reaction is mixed. With a 59% RT score, any awards prospects are shaky. The one exception could be Visual Effects, but I don’t even think it’s guaranteed to make the shortlist (let alone the final five). In other words, putting this anywhere in your Academy forecast represents a big… well, you know. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The Cannes Film Festival is underway and the opening feature is from an auteur named Quentin! Not that one. The Second Act is a French comedy about the first AI directed movie and it’s the latest from filmmaker Quentin Dupieux. Also… don’t get this confused with Second Act, Jennifer Lopez’s rom com from 2018 (because why would that open Cannes??). Léa Seydoux, Vincent Lindon, Louis Garrel, and Raphaël Quenard star.
Clocking in at a mere 82 minutes, initial reactions call this a very meta experience. Reviews themselves are mixed. The Rotten Tomatoes score is currently 60% based on a handful of critics.
I find it highly unlikely that the French will select this as their contender for International Feature Film months down the line. Any awards prospects seem shaky at best. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
John Krasinski’s fantastical family flick IF looks to top the box office charts while horror prequel The Strangers: Chapter 1 and the Amy Winehouse biopic Back to Black also debut. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
IF is a tricky one to call. It has star power in the form of Ryan Reynolds and plenty of familiar faces voicing the various imaginary friends in the cast. On the other hand, this is original IP and it could struggle to break out with more franchise friendly titles for the fam coming our way this season (The Garfield Movie, Inside Out 2, Despicable Me 4). I’m giving it a mid to high 30s start as it will hope to leg out well over the next several weeks.
The runner-up spot should go to current champ Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes (barring a massive underperformance from IF). The tenth feature overall in the long-running series premiered at highest end of its anticipated range (more on that below). Its sophomore dip could be substantial. While 2014’s Dawn of the Planet of the Apes fell only 50%, follow-up War for the Planet of the Apes in 2017 tumbled 63%. It didn’t help that War faced direct competition from Dunkirk in its first outing. Then there’s the surprising B Cinemascore grade for Kingdom and that’s low for a blockbuster. Word-of-mouth could be an issue. I have it sliding in the high 50s or low 60s for a low to mid 20s second frame.
The Strangers: Chapter 1 could face the same genre hurdles that other recent titles have including Abigail and The First Omen. My estimate just north of $10 million puts it in third for a muted third place beginning.
The Fall Guy should continue its underwhelming run in fourth with a low to mid 40s ease in weekend #3.
With mostly poor reviews, a mid single digits start for Back to Black would have it rounding out the high five.
Here’s how I see it playing out:
1. IF
Predicted Gross: $38.3 million
2. Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Predicted Gross: $23.6 million
3. The Strangers: Chapter 1
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million
4. The Fall Guy
Predicted Gross: $8 million
5. Back to Black
Predicted Gross: $4.5 million
Box Office Results (May 10-12)
It was a wonderful weekend for 20th Century Studios as Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes proved the franchise is in good working order. Arriving seven years after predecessor War, it topped that film’s gross with $58.4 million. That’s third in the series only to 2014’s Dawn and Tim Burton’s 2001 re-imagining and ahead of my $55.2 million call.
The Fall Guy fell to second with $13.6 million, on target with my $13.2 million prediction. The total sits at a ho-hum $49 million after ten days as the summer’s first flop will likely not reach nine figures domestically.
Challengers was third with $4.3 million (I said $4.7 million) as its three-week tally is $37 million.
I did not correctly identify the fourth and fifth place finishers. Why? Well… the re-release of Star Wars: Episode 1 – The Phantom Menace was down a gargantuan 84% to $1.4 million (to bring its take to $486 million since 1999). I was far more generous and thought it would do $4 million. Oops.
That’s nothing compared to my overestimate of the Tyler Perry filmography spoof Not Another Church Movie. I had it in third place with $4.9 million. Instead it was 13th with a whopping…. $391k. Apparently filmgoers will go to Perry’s pics and do not want to see them made fun of.
Fourth place went to Tarot in its second go-round with $3.4 million. That’s actually a fine hold for horror as it has reached $11.9 million.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire rounded out the top five with $2.6 million to bring its numbers to $191 million after seven weeks.
Francis Galluppi appears to be a writer/director to watch based on reaction to his debut The Last Stop in Yuma County. The crime thriller is out in limited fashion and on streaming services this weekend. Critics are praising the tight B-movie with an effective albeit familiar script, according to various write-ups. The cast includes Jim Cummings, Jocelin Donahue, Sierra McCormick, Nicholas Logan, Michael Abbott Jr., Connor Paolo, Alex Essoe, Robin Bartlett, Sam Huntington, Barbara Crampton, Gene Jones, Faizon Love, and Richard Brake.
With a sturdy 98% on RT, this could be a cult classic in waiting. It’s doubtful that the genre exercise will flex any muscle with awards branches. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, for starters, gets its name right. Arriving seven years after War for the Planet of the Apes, a common criticism (not an especially important one) of the preceding trilogy was that their titles were a bit misleading. 2011’s Rise of the Planet of the Apes should’ve been Dawn of the Planet of the Apes. Yet that one came three years later and a more appropriate moniker for it would be War for the Planet of the Apes. However, War was in 2017 even though Rise of the Planet of the Apes would’ve fit better. Apes are indeed ruling the planet in the fourth entry of this Apes run and the tenth overall in the franchise. Climb of the Planet of the Apes might’ve stuck as well since the plot needs the creatures to use their upward mobility to get them out of jams.
Ultimately Kingdom gets more right than its name. A brief prologue reminds us where we left off in War. In its climax, simian leader Caesar (played iconically by Andy Serkis in probably the greatest motion capture performance ever) stopped being an Earthbound dweller and belonged to the ages. “Many generation later” (like 200-300 years), there are groups who study and honor Caesar’s work. Others are agnostic. Young ape Noa (Owen Teague) is in the latter bunch. His clan is more preoccupied with their birding activities which involve coming-of-age rituals that Noa is primed for. This is interrupted by human contact in the form of Freya Allan’s character Mae. All members of that race have been rendered speechless (as we started to witness in War). By Kingdom‘s coming, they’re also undomesticated and homeless and rare to come across.
This interaction inadvertently brings harm to Noa’s loved ones and sets the young ape on a course of discovery and retrieval of kidnapped family members. The abductor is Proximus Caesar (Kevin Durand’s superb and complex villain), whose mission involves bringing all clans together where he can rule with an iron paw. While that ape bends the teachings of Caesar to his own twisted ideology, others succeed in extolling the virtues. This includes orangutan Raka (Peter Macon) who joins Noa on the journey and first exposes him to the dominant force in Rise, Dawn, and War (or more appropriately… Dawn, War, and Rise but’s let not get hung up on it).
Raka is maybe my favorite character in a screenplay (by Avatar: The Way of Water scribe Josh Friedman) filled with promising new ones. I say promising because Kingdom is clearly world building to more installments. In that sense, comparisons to Rise of the Planet of the Apes from 2011 are apt. That tale explained Caesar’s childhood upbringing and eventual imprisonment that created the wide divide between apes and human. The movie itself was lean and efficient with a short runtime compared to Dawn, War, and this. Parts of Kingdom could’ve used a shave and tighter edit. The end result, though, is similar to 2011’s reboot in that I look forward to what’s coming while valuing what I just saw. Wes Ball takes over directorial responsibilities from Matt Reeves, who excelled at making the darker Dawn and War. Ball’s contribution may not be quite as distinctive, but it’s well-executed in reintroducing the audience to its visual landscapes and consistent tug-of-war between species coexisting in them.
This is smarter summer blockbuster sci-fi than any other franchise going and the series has been pulling that off for nearly 60 years. There’s been dips in quality (hi Tim Burton and various portions of the 1970s sequels). These past four Apes sagas have climbed to the top in terms of overall quality.
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