Our nation’s most famous lasagna adoring orange cat hits theaters this Memorial Day weekend with The Garfield Movie. A year after (somewhat controversially) providing the voice of Mario in The Super Mario Bros. Movie, Chris Pratt does the same for this title character. Other notable thespians lending their talents are Samuel L. Jackson, Hannah Waddingham, Ving Rhames, Nicholas Hoult, Cecily Strong, Harvey Giuillén, Brett Goldstein, Bowen Yang, Janelle James, and Snoop Dogg. Mark Dindal directs.
Even the fresher reviews for Garfield mostly call it nothing more than a pleasant diversion. The Rotten Tomatoes meter sits at a meager 55%. Mario didn’t manage any attention in the Animated Feature race and Pratt’s latest contribution to animation won’t either. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Cannes festival goers are going gaga over The Substance, a two and a half hour body horror pic from French auteur Coralie Fargeat. Demi Moore headlines as a former Oscar winner whose career is on the skids with Dennis Quaid and Margaret Qualley supporting. When our lead turns to highly experimental means to maintain her physical appearance, the grotesqueness begins.
At a festival where journalists breathlessly clock the runtimes of standing ovations, The Substance reportedly has the longest thus far. There are raves for Moore’s work. Despite performances spanning decades in several iconic films, she hasn’t received recognition from the Academy (unlike her character).
Despite the buzz, it might be a reach for this subject matter to get on Oscar radar. Still it’s worth not losing track of for what appears to be a real comeback role for Moore. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
To stateside audiences, Ben Whishaw might be best known as Q in the last three Daniel Craig 007 pics or as the voice of Paddington in those two acclaimed family flicks. He is hoping to generate awards chatter in Limonov: The Ballad which has premiered at Cannes.
Whishaw plays the title role of a Russian dissident who founded the National Bolshevik Party in the early 1990s. Kirill Serebrennikov directs with a screenplay cowritten by Pawel Pawlikowski (the Oscar nominated maker of 2018’s Cold War). Costars include Tomas Arana and Sandrine Bonnaire.
Reviews thus far are mixed enough that I question its viability in awards conversations. Despite Whishaw getting some high marks, the real-life character he’s playing might be too controversial for him to factor into discussions as well. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The trio of directors involved have confirmed at Cannes that Rumours is indeed named after the iconic Fleetwood Mac album. It probably will hold the title of “best movie that is also a Fleetwood Mac album” since it is getting better reviews than Kevin Smith’s Tusk from 2014. That doesn’t mean awards will follow.
From Guy Maddin, Evan Johnson, and Galen Johnson (who also wrote the screenplay), the satire is set at the G7 summit where strange happenings occur. Cate Blanchett, Alicia Vikander, Charles Dance, Roy Dupuis, Denis Ménochet, Nikki Amuka-Bird, Rolando Revello, and Takehiro Hira are among the politicos.
Bleecker Street has recently acquired distribution rights and reviews indicate this might be the lauded Canadian filmmakers’ most commercially accessible work. That said, I’m skeptical that will lead to any significant awards buzz. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
My latest round of Oscar predictions arrives at the midpoint of the Cannes Film Festival and the hoopla on the French Riviera has cleared up some lingering questions. Is Francis Ford Coppola’s decades in development sci-fi epic Megalopolis a contender? That answer appears to be no. Same goes for Paul Schrader’s Oh, Canada.
It gets a lot more uncertain after that. Andrea Arnold’s Bird has its fans and I do think its BP chances are intact. Category placement issues abound. I thought Barry Keoghan would be lead for Bird, but reaction suggests he’s supporting.
Then there’s Kinds of Kindness from Yorgos Lanthimos. The WOM for it suggests it definitely faces longer odds for Academy inclusion that his two predecessors The Favourite and Poor Things. That said, I wouldn’t totally discount it. I could see it generating a lone Original Screenplay nod. Right now I’m putting Emma Stone and Jesse Plemons in lead as possibilities and hopefully we’ll know soon if they’re being campaigned there or in supporting.
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga also is behind its predecessor Mad Max: Fury Road in terms of possibilities. While it should land a few tech nods, BP and Director chances are feasible yet less than what happened nine years ago.
I would suggest that Jacques Audiard’s Emilia Pérez has done itself the most good at Cannes. The crowd-pleasing reaction has me elevating it into the top 10 in BP with Zoe Saldaña in Actress and Karla Sofia Gascón in Supporting Actress. In previous posts, I had those two performers in each other’s categories. It’s still not locked as to where they will be, but this is my best guess based on the information available.
In news not related to Cannes, it was announced that The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat will be a Hulu exclusive premiere. That would seem to take it out of contention at the Oscars.
I will likely have another update posted next weekend since more Cannes titles will be unveiled including Horizon: An American Saga and The Apprentice. Stay tuned, folks!
Best Picture
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz (Previous Ranking: 1) (Even)
2. Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Sing Sing (PR: 4) (E)
5. Queer (PR: 5) (E)
6. The End (PR: 6) (E)
7. His Three Daughters (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. The Piano Lesson (PR: 15) (+6)
10. The Apprentice (PR: 13) (+3)
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 11) (E)
12. Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Bird (PR: 9) (-4)
14. Dídi (PR: 23) (+9)
15. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 14) (-1)
16. Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (-4)
17. The Fire Inside (PR: 7) (-10)
18. Kinds of Kindness (PR: 8) (-10)
19. Hit Man (PR: 20) (+1)
20. A Real Pain (PR: 21) (+1)
21. Civil War (PR: 19) (-2)
22. Maria (PR: 17) (-5)
23. Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
24. The Nickel Boys (PR: 18) (-6)
25. Here (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Megalopolis
The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Hard Truths
SNL 1975
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz (PR: 1) (E)
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two (PR: 2) (E)
3. Edward Berger, Conclave (PR: 3) (E)
4. Luca Guadagnino, Queer (PR: 6) (+2)
5. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Azazel Jacobs, His Three Daughters (PR: 15) (+9)
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing (PR: 10) (+3)
8. Jacques Audiard, Emila Pérez (PR: Not Ranked)
9. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 9) (E)
10. Ali Abbasi, The Apprentice (PR: 14) (+4)
11. Marielle Heller, Nightbitch (PR: Not Ranked)
12. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 12) (E)
13. Malcolm Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: Not Ranked)
14. Andrea Arnold, Bird (PR: 5) (-9)
15. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga (PR: 11) (-4)
Dropped Out:
Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside
Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria (PR: 1) (E)
2. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun (PR: 2) (E)
3. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters (PR: 3) (E)
4. Amy Adams, Nightbitch (PR: 7) (+3)
5. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Pérez (PR: Not Ranked, moved from Supporting)
Other Possibilities:
6. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux (PR: 5) (-1)
7. Tilda Swinton, The End (PR: 6) (-1)
8. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside (PR: 4) (-4)
9. Zendaya, Challengers (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night (PR: 11) (E)
12. Florence Pugh, We Live in Time (PR: 12) (E)
13. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary (PR: 13) (E)
14. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle (PR: 15) (+1)
15. Emma Stone, Kinds of Kindness (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Pérez (moved to Supporting)
Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing (PR: 1) (E)
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave (PR: 2) (E)
3. Daniel Craig, Queer (PR 3) (E)
4. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice (PR: 8) (+4)
5. André Holland, The Actor (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Glen Powell, Hit Man (PR: 7) (+1)
7. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux (PR: 6) (-1)
8. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson (PR: 9) (+1)
9. George MacKay, The End (PR: 10) (+1)
10. Paul Mescal, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
11. Kevin Costner, Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2 (PR: 15) (+4)
12. Kinglsey Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Andrew Garfield, We Live in Time (PR: 13) (E)
14. Tom Hanks, Here (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration (PR: 12) (-3)
Dropped Out:
Barry Keoghan, Bird (moved to Supportong)
Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez (PR: Not Ranked – moved from lead)
3. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz (PR: 2) (-1)
4. Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters (PR: 4) (E)
5. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys (PR: 5) (E)
Other Possibilities:
6. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson (PR: 8) (+2)
7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice (PR: 12) (+5)
8. Joan Chen, Dídi (PR: 3) (-5)
9. Elizabeth Olsen, His Three Daughters (PR: 9) (E)
10. Lesley Manville, Queer (PR: 7) (-3)
11. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders (PR: 11) (E)
12. Robin Wright, Here (PR: Not Ranked)
13. Toni Collette, Juror No. 2 (PR: 13) (E)
14. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle (PR: Not Ranked)
15. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War (PR: Not Ranked)
Dropped Out:
Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness
Erin Kellyman, Blitz
Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez (moved to lead)
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave (PR: 1) (E)
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing (PR: 2) (E)
3. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson (PR: 5) (+2)
4. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice (PR: 7) (+4)
5. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain (PR: 4) (-1)
Other Possibilities:
6. Drew Starkey, Queer (PR: 6) (E)
7. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside (PR: 3 (-4)
8. Harris Dickinson, Blitz (PR: 11) (+3)
9. Barry Keoghan, Bird (PR: Not Ranked, moved from lead)
10. John Lithgow, Conclave (PR: 9) (-1)
11. Adam Pearson, A Different Man (PR: 10) (-1)
12. Stephen Graham, Blitz (PR: 14) (+2)
13. Denzel Washington, Gladiator II (PR: Not Ranked)
Emilia Pérez seems to be both a genre mashup and a Cannes highlight for many thus far. From Jacques Audiard, whose 2009 effort A Prophet took the Grand Prix in the French Riviera and scored a Foreign Language Feature nom at the Oscars, his latest mixes music, crime, and comedy. Karla Sofia Gascón is a drug cartel leader undergoing gender reassignment surgery. Zoe Saldaña is the lawyer providing assistance with Selena Gomez as Gascón’s spouse. Édgar Ramirez also costars.
Audiard is a familiar presence at Cannes. In addition to his aforementioned work from 15 years ago, 2015’s Dheepan won the Palme d’Or. The screening for Emilia has provided some of the fest’s most enthusiastic reaction in its first few days. Called audacious and crowd-pleasing, the RT score is 80% (based on a handful of write-ups).
If Mexico submits this as their choice for International Feature Film (and I suspect they will), the chances to make that final five is high. It could nab more noms than that. Some of it will come down to category placement and that seems uncertain at the moment.
Early word-of-mouth would suggest that Saldaña might be campaigned for in lead Actress with Gascón in supporting. My previous prediction posts had that dynamic switched. This will be altered when I update projections later today. I strongly suspect Gascón will be in my estimated quintet with Saldaña as a possibility in Actress (I’m toying with putting her in my five but she might be just on the outside looking in).
I also believe this could mark Audiard’s first crossover into Best Picture and that could include a nod for the filmmaker himself. While other Cannes titles have hurt their possibilities upon their screenings, it seems like Pérez could be up on the upswing. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Angel Studios is hoping for more holiday luck in the form of Sight over the Memorial Day frame. Terry Chen stars as real-life figure Ming Wang, a Chinese immigrant who became a well-known eye surgeon in the United States. Andrew Wyatt directs. The supporting cast includes Greg Kinnear, Danni Wang, Raymond Ma, Bennet Wang, Jayden Zhang, Wai Ching Ho, and Fionnula Flanagan.
Last summer, the aforementioned distributor scored a major summer surprise via Sound of Freedom. Over the extended six-day July 4th weekend, it debuted to over $40 million with an eventual $184 million domestic total.
Follow-ups have brought in considerably less coin for Angel, which specialize in dramas with faith-based leanings. Last October, After Death premiered with just over $5 million. In December, The Shift came in with a little less than $5 million. Cabrini in March started with a tad over $7 million.
I’m eyeballing a similar prescription for Sight and maybe a little less comparatively. With an extra day of grosses, I think it gets over $5 million though not by much.
Sight opening weekend prediction: $5.3 million (Friday to Monday estimate)
For my Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga prediction, click here:
Jared and Jerusha Hess, the married couple behind irreverent comedies Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre, bring their sensibilities to the animated comedic musical Thelma the Unicorn. Based on a series of books by Aaron Blabey, the pic is out on Netflix this weekend. Voiceover work comes from Brittany Howard, Will Forte, Jemaine Clement, Edi Patterson, Fred Armisen, Zach Galifianakis, Napoleon himself Jon Heder, and Shondrella Avery.
Critical reaction is mostly complimentary though not lavish in acclaim. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 70%. I’m guessing Netflix won’t make this a priority in their Best Animated Feature campaign. Perhaps it can make the final five if the field is especially weak though I wouldn’t bank on it. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Playing a dying documentary filmmaker recounting his life, on paper Oh, Canada sounds like the kind of project that could give 74-year-old Richard Gere his first Oscar nomination. It reunites the actor with his American Gigolo collaborator Paul Schrader some four and a half decades later. Schrader is adapting the Russell Banks novel, who also wrote Affliction. The director’s version of that source material resulted in Nick Nolte being up for Best Actor in 1998 and James Coburn winning Supporting Actor.
Canada premiered in France at Cannes. The supporting cast includes Jacob Elordi (playing Gere’s younger self), Uma Thurman, Michael Imperioli, Victoria Hill, Penelope Mitchell, and Kristine Froseth.
There’s only a smattering of reviews and they’re mixed with a current 60% RT score. Schrader has been a busy man lately. 2018’s First Reformed nabbed him a nod for Best Original Screenplay (somehow his first). Follow-ups The Card Counter and Master Gardener were not on the radar of voters. It’s highly unlikely this will be either.
As for Gere, that acting nom should remain elusive. He was rather famously omitted for 2002’s Chicago, despite the movie taking Best Picture and four of his costars being recognized. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
The previous two features from Yorgos Lanthimos – 2018’s The Favourite and last year’s Poor Things – combined for 21 Oscar nominations. This includes two Actress victories for Olivia Colman in the former and Emma Stone in the latter. Mere months after Poor Things, Lanthimos’s follow-up Kinds of Kindness has premiered at Cannes prior to its June 21st stateside bow. The three hour anthology has Ms. Stone headlining alongside Jesse Plemons, Willem Dafoe, Margaret Qualley, Hong Chau, Joe Alwyn, Mamoudou Athie, and Hunter Schafer.
Unlike his two Academy contending predecessors, Lanthimos reunites with writing partner Efthimis Filippou. They collaborated on the filmmaker’s earlier projects Dogtooth (2012), The Lobster (2016), and The Killing of a Sacred Deer (2017).
The Rotten Tomatoes score is 94%, but that doesn’t tell the whole story. Several critics, while praising many aspects, are calling this an easier picture to admire than like. This will be a true test of the Academy’s affinity for its maker. Those last two projects yielded five acting nominations and the aforementioned two wins. Stone and Plemons in particular are generating plenty of kudos. I do question whether Searchlight hones in on any of the cast for recognition. Perhaps SAG will take notice. In my previous prediction posts, I singled out Hong Chau for Supporting Actress consideration. I doubt that happens now. The best bet could be a sole Screenplay nod.
I wouldn’t discount Kinds receiving the kindness of awards voters. That said, I believe it faces more of an uphill battle than Lanthimos’s recent things that the Academy favoured. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
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