April 12-14 Box Office Predictions

A24 is looking for Civil War to be their biggest box office breakout so far when it opens this weekend. You can peruse my detailed prediction post on the newcomer here:

Civil War Box Office Prediction

In order to set the all-time opening premiere record for the studio, it needs to eclipse the low teens start Hereditary managed in 2018. That shouldn’t be a problem as I have it posting a high teens beginning. That should be enough for a #1 perch.

That means Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire should slide to second after two weeks atop the charts with a high 40s-low 50s decline. The other sequel with Empire at the end – Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire – might maintain its third place position as I have current #2 Monkey Man experiencing a larger drop. I actually have Monkey sliding three spots. Kung Fu Panda 4 may manage to rise from 5th to 4th as its fall should be less than the sophomore frame of The First Omen, which had a highly disappointing debut (more on that below).

And with that, my forecast for the top 5:

1. Civil War

Predicted Gross: $18 million

2. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire

Predicted Gross: $15.9 million

3. Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire

Predicted Gross: $5.6 million

4. Kung Fu Panda 4

Predicted Gross: $5.1 million

5. Monkey Man

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million

Box Office Results (April 5-7)

Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire, as anticipated, had an understandable 61% second weekend plummet to $31.2 million. That’s right on target with my $31.8 million prediction as the impressive two-week total is $134 million.

Dev Patel’s inaugural behind the camera project Monkey Man was runner-up and kicked off on the lower end of expectations. With $10.1 million, it came in well under my $16.6 million take.

Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $9 million in its third haunting. That’s hotter than my $7.6 million projection as it has amassed $88 million.

The First Omen, as mentioned, might have been victim to horror genre overload. Despite mostly heavenly reviews, the demonic prequel was DOA with $8.3 million. I was more generous at $13.3 million.

Kung Fu Panda 4 rounded out the top five at $7.7 million (I said $6.5 million) as the animated sequel is up to $165 million in five weeks and has grossed more than parts 2 and 3 domestically already. It will not, however, match the $215 million that the original took in.

Finally, Dune: Part Two was sixth with $7.4 million (I said $6.7 million) for a six-week bounty of $265 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscar Predictions: Back to Black

Back to Black doesn’t hit domestic venues until May 17th, but the biopic is out this weekend in the U.K. and reviews are available for download. Focused on the life of British crooner Amy Winehouse, Fifty Shades of Grey helmer Sam Taylor-Johnson directs with Marisa Abel as the late singer. Jack O’Connell, Eddie Marsan, and Lesley Manville costar.

Critical reaction is decidedly mixed. Trades like Variety and Hollywood Reporter are mostly positive while plenty of across the pond publications are panning it. The current result is 52% on Rotten Tomatoes.

Like another 2024 musical biopic about a legend gone too soon (Bob Marley: One Love with Kingsley Ben-Adir in the title part), notices for its headliner are stronger than the picture itself. Abel is being praised and she’s at least a slight threat to contend in Best Actress. Like Ben-Adir, it might be a stretch to make the final cut. Perhaps BAFTA is more doable. Don’t expect Black to factor in anywhere else. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The People’s Joker

Batman’s most notable nemesis certainly has an Oscar history. Heath Ledger’s performance as the Joker in Christopher Nolan’s 2008 sequel The Dark Knight won him a posthumous Supporting Actor statue. Eleven years later, Joaquin Phoenix took the lead Actor prize as the title character in the Todd Phillips treatment of the demented clown. The other famous cinematic Jokers are also Academy recipients: Jack Nicholson (three times for One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, Terms of Endearment, As Good as It Gets) and Jared Leto (Dallas Buyers Club).

No, Vera Drew is not going to follow suit. However, The People’s Joker is drawing raves from many critics. A parody of superhero pics and an exploration of transgender issues, this Joker has had a fascinating and bumpy ride to the silver screen. Unveiled at the Toronto Film Festival in 2022, the film was shelved due to trademark and character rights complications.

A year and a half later, Drew’s crowd-funded concoction is out in limited fashion domestically. She stars, directs, and cowrites with a supporting cast of unknowns and familiar faces. They include Lynn Downey, Kane Distler, David Liebe Hart, Phil Braun, Maria Bamford, Christian Calloway, Tim Heidecker, Scott Aukerman, Bob Odenkirk, and Robert Wuhl (who was reporter Alexander Knox in Tim Burton’s first Batman).

Reviews are praising the filmmaker’s use of the 21st century’s preeminent genre to document her own transformation. The Rotten Tomatoes score is 96%. This doesn’t seem like something the Academy would honor, but the Indie Spirits could be another story and perhaps even DGA could put Drew in their First-Time Director race. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Música

Internet personality Rudy Mancuso stars, directs, and cowrites the musical coming-of-age rom com Música. It had its world premiere at South by Southwest last month and is now available on Amazon Prime. Camila Mendes, J.B. Smoove, and Francesca Reale are among the supporting cast.

A number of critics are not curbing their enthusiasm for Mancuso’s filmmaking debut. The RT score is a robust 96%. Despite the kudos, don’t expect the Academy to notice this project. The Golden Globes could be a different story if Amazon plays their cards right. With a committed campaign, this could vie for Musical/Comedy (Motion Picture) as could Mancuso in that lead actor derby. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Beast

Taking its source material from a Henry James novella penned over 120 years ago, Bertrand Bonello’s The Beast is set 20 years in the future (with jumps back to 1910 and 2014). Léa Seydoux (recently seen in Dune: Part Two) and George MacKay headline with Guslagie Malanda and Dasha Nekrasova supporting. The sci-fi romance premiered at the Venice Film Festival last autumn and has made its way stateside after a French start in February.

86% of critics are fresh for what’s described as a tense art movie. Some reviewers are saying it doesn’t completely succeed, but give it points for the try. I don’t expect this to be something that the Academy takes notice of. I wouldn’t be surprised if it develops a cult following from genre enthusiasts. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Coup de chance

Woody Allen is back in thriller mode with Coup de chance, his 50th feature behind the camera that premiered in Venice last fall and was released in France shortly after. It’s out stateside in limited fashion this weekend with a streaming bow to follow next weekend. Shot in French, the main cast from that country includes Lou de Laâge, Valérie Lemercier, Melvil Poupaud, and Niels Schneider.

This is the Allen’s first work in three years after 2020’s Rifkin’s Festival as American audiences have largely shunned the filmmaker after abuse allegations resurfaced in the Me Too era. You can safely assume part of the reason this was made across the pond is due to the auteur not being able to pick up domestic distributors.

Despite the controversy around its maker, chance is generating some of Allen’s strongest reviews of the 21st century. The RT score is 84% with critics comparing it to 2005’s Match Point and others saying it’s his best since 2013’s Blue Jasmine. In a previous time, actors would frequently nab Oscar wins and noms in his pictures and so could the screenplay. Even with these laudatory notices, that time has passed. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: The Greatest Hits

Following a South by Southwest premiere last month, The Greatest Hits is in theaters this weekend in limited fashion before a Hulu bow next weekend. The romantic dramedy stars Lucy Boynton, Justin H. Min, David Corenswet (soon to portray the title role in James Gunn’s Superman), and Austin Crute.

Many critic claim the film’s theme of utilizing music to play on our emotions ultimately doesn’t pay off. The Rotten Tomatoes rating is just 53% and it appears there’s not enough needle drops to place it into any sort of awards contention. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Scoop

No, Scoop is not a remake of the 2006 Woody Allen pic with Hugh Jackman and Scarlett Johansson, but it is centered on a controversial subject. This Scoop is out on Netflix today and focuses on a disastrous TV interview with Prince Andrew about his various scandals. Gillian Anderson plays journalist Emily Maitlis with Rufus Sewell as the aforementioned royalty. Billie Piper and Keely Hawes costar with Philip Martin, known for TV work in Prime Suspect and The Crown, directing.

Like Scoop from Mr. Allen, this Scoop has a mixed reception. At 76% on RT, even the more positive notices temper their plaudits. Here’s a new flash! This won’t a topic in the awards conversation. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

Oscar Predictions: Janet Planet

Pulitzer Prize winning playwright Annie Baker enters the cinematic realm penning and directing Janet Planet. The coming-of-age drama doesn’t hit screens until June 21st, but it debuted at Telluride last fall and a trailer is now up. Julianne Nicholson, newcomer Zoe Ziegler, Elias Koteas, Sophie Okonedo, and Will Patton are among the cast members.

Reviews range from raves to just so-so write-ups with a RT score at 83%. Variety, for example, lovingly compares it to the acclaimed Eighth Grade (another A24 project). Praise for Nicholson and Ziegler is particularly strong. The former is one of those actresses who may not be far away from their Oscar play. An Emmy winner for Mare of Easttown, Nicholson has shown up recently in Blonde and Dream Scenario and draws positive notices everywhere she turns up.

I’m not confident Janet Planet is that project. A24 would need to mount a serious campaign and they might be preoccupied elsewhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Predictions in Best Supporting Actress

My very first glimpse of the acting races, Director, and Picture for the 97th Academy Awards reaches Best Supporting Actress! If you missed my post covering Supporting Actor, you can peruse it here:

97th Academy Awards: FIRST Oscar Predictions in Best Supporting Actor

When I did my initial speculation for this competition in 2023 (just about a year ago), it yielded one eventual nominee and that was Danielle Brooks for The Color Purple. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named the eventual winner Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers in addition to fellow nominee Jodie Foster (Nyad). I did not identify Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer) or America Ferrera (Barbie) at that early juncture.

Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out to be awards contenders. Performers listed here could end up being campaigned for in lead actor and vice versa when I get to Best Actress.

This premiere post highlights plenty of veteran thespians with previous noms. It is worth noting that none of them are previous victors. We also have some newcomers to the awards scene.

Here’s the first snapshot:

TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS FOR SUPPORTING ACTRESS AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS

Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness

Joan Chen, Dídi

Erin Kellyman, Blitz

Lesley Manville, Queer

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Other Possibilities:

Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice

Toni Collette, Juror No. 2

Carrie Coon, His Three Daughters

Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson

Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Renate Reinsve, A Different Man

Cailee Spaeny, Civil War

Emily Watson, Small Things like These

Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle

Best Actor is up next!

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