Zendaya hopes to serve up healthy box office numbers as her sports drama Challengers debuts this weekend. We also have the faith-based drama Unsung Hero out. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on the newcomers here:
With impressive reviews and Zendaya hot off Dune: Part Two, Challengers should face no challenge in topping the charts. $20M+ is within the realm of possibility, but so is low teens. I’m in the middle of that range.
The numbers for slots 2-6 should be close. Unsung Hero is of a genre that can often surprise. However, my sub $6M projection puts it in fourth.
A mid 40s drop for Civil War would drop it to second after two weeks in first. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire could hold in third with Abigail falling to fifth in its sophomore frame after a lackluster start (more on that below). That leaves The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare rounding out the top six after its mediocre premiere.
Here’s how I have the top 6 shaking out:
1. Challengers
Predicted Gross: $16.2 million
2. Civil War
Predicted Gross: $6.3 million
3. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $6 million
4. Unsung Hero
Predicted Gross: $5.9 million
5. Abigail
Predicted Gross: $5.4 million
6. The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare
Predicted Gross: $5.2 million
Box Office Results (April 19-21)
Civil War managed to stay at #1 in its second weekend despite a 56% plummet. Alex Garland’s dystopian action flick made $11.1 million, close to my $11.8 million prediction. The two-week gross is $44 million.
While the rollout didn’t totally suck, Abigail‘s #2 posting lacked bite. The vampire story scored solid reviews, but started on the lowest end of its anticipated range with $10.2 million. I gave it a bit more credit with a $13.1 million projection.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire was third with $9.5 million, just ahead of my $8.7 million call. The monster mashup has amassed $171 million after four weeks.
Guy Ritchie’s The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare took in a ho-hum $8.9 million for fourth position. It did manage to outdo my $7.6 million forecast.
Crunchyroll’s latest anime offering Spy x Family Code: White rounded out the top five with an unremarkable $4.8 million. That’s below the studio’s latest domestic outputs and well under my $9.8 million take.
Country star Joel Smallbone cowrites, co-directs, and plays his own father in Unsung Hero. The faith and factually based drama is out April 26th as the musician shares screenwriting and filmmaking duties with Richard Ramsey. Smallbone is a member of the Christian pop band For King & Country as this recounts his upbringing in Tennessee after moving from Australia. Daisy Betts, Kirrilee Berger, Jonathan Jackson, Lucas Black, and Cameron Cameron Buge are among the supporting cast.
The Lionsgate release is out stateside a month before the Australian premiere. Lionsgate hopes fans of the band make the theatrical trek and that brings us to my usual caveat. Faith-based pics are tough to project. They can easily exceed expectations, but they’ve been known to underwhelm from time to time (for instance Ordinary Angels didn’t match my prediction a few weeks ago).
I’ve yet to see a theater count so my projection could change when I see that figure. A high single digits start (or even low double digits) would easily put it in the runner-up spot. Mid single digits is what I’m forecasting and that might put it anywhere from 2-6 depending on how holdovers perform as April closes out. My current number has it rounding out the high five or being 6th instead of being 2nd.
Unsung Hero opening weekend prediction: $4.7 million
A month and change after the 96th Academy Awards aired, it is time for my first ranked predictions for the next ceremony coming your way March 2, 2025.
Yes, it’s early. However, I posted my inaugural numbered forecasts for Best Picture, Director, and the four acting derbies around the same juncture a year ago. The results named the eventual winners in all six races. In BP, four of the 10 contenders were predicted (including Oppenheimer) while three others were listed in Other Possibilities. For Director, I correctly called 2 of the 5 filmmakers (including Christopher Nolan) with two others in Other Possibilities. Best Actress yielded just one, but it was statue recipient Emma Stone for Poor Things. Two others were listed in Other Possibilities. Best Actor also saw one with three of the others in Other Possibilities (including Oppenheimer himself, Cillian Murphy). For Supporting Actress, it was 1 and then 2 in Other Possibilities (including victor Da’Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers). Finally, in Supporting Actor, it was one in the projected quintet with three in Other Possibilities and that includes Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer.
Let’s get those caveats out of the way. Some of the performers predicted in lead will end up in supporting and vice versa. That happened in 2023 when I had Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) at #1 in Supporting Actress and then she ended up being campaigned for and was nominated in Best Actress. Some of the movies will get pushed back to 2025. There’s a few from my first projections in April 2023 that were supposed to come out that year. You’ll find them listed below and that list includes heavy hitters like Dune: Part Two, Blitz, Challengers, The Nickel Boys, The Piano Lesson, Nightbitch, and The Fire Inside to name a few.
You can expect these predictions to be updated every couple of weeks before it turns into a weekly post starting in late summer/early fall when festival season goes into overdrive. A smattering of these titles will have reviews up when they premiere at Cannes less than a month from now. They include Bird, Kinds of Kindness, Megalopolis, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga, The Apprentice, Emilia Perez, and Horizon: An American Saga.
With all that out of the way – here are those first ranked takes!
BEST PICTURE
Predicted Nominees:
1. Blitz
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Conclave
4. Sing Sing
5. The End
6. Queer
7. The Fire Inside
8. Bird
9. Kinds of Kindness
10. Dídi
Other Possibilities:
11. Joker: Folie à Deux
12. The Apprentice
13. The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
14. Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
15. Civil War
16. Maria
17. Megalopolis
18. The Piano Lesson
19. Horizon: An America Saga – Chapter 2
20. A Real Pain
21. Here
22. The Nickel Boys
23. Hard Truths
24. Wicked
25. Gladiator II
Best Director
Predicted Nominees:
1. Steve McQueen, Blitz
2. Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Two
3. Edward Berger, Conclave
4. Joshua Oppenheimer, The End
5. Rachel Morrison, The Fire Inside
Other Possibilities:
6. Luca Guadagnino, Queer
7. Greg Kwedar, Sing Sing
8. Yorgos Lanthimos, Kinds of Kindness
9. Andrea Arnold, Bird
10. Todd Phillips, Joker: Folie à Deux
11. George Miller, Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
12. Sean Wang, Dídi
13. Alex Garland, Civil War
14. Francis Ford Coppola, Megalopolis
15. Ali Abbisi, The Apprentice
Best Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Angelina Jolie, Maria
2. Saoirse Ronan, Blitz
3. Ryan Destiny, The Fire Inside
4. Lady Gaga, Joker: Folie á Deux
5. Tilda Swinton, The End
Other Possibilities:
6. Amy Adams, Nightbitch
7. Marianne Jean-Baptiste, Hard Truths
8. Uzo Aduba, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
9. Karla Sofia Gascón, Emilia Perez
10. Saoirse Ronan, The Outrun
11. Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
12. Anne Hathaway, Mother Mary
13. Zendaya, Challengers
14. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
15. Noemie Merlant, Emmanuelle
Best Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
3. Barry Keoghan, Bird
4. Daniel Craig, Queer
5. André Holland, The Actor
Other Possibilities:
6. Joaquin Phoenix, Joker: Folie à Deux
7. George MacKay, The End
8. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
9. Glen Powell, Hit Man
10. John David Washington, The Piano Lesson
11. Timothée Chalamet, Dune: Part Two
12. Adam Driver, Megalopolis
13. Sebastian Stan, A Different Man
14. Paul Bettany, The Collaboration
15. Kingsley Ben-Adir, Bob Marley: One Love
Best Supporting Actress
Predicted Nominees:
1. Joan Chen, Dídi
2. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
3. Erin Kellyman, Blitz
4. Lesley Manville, Queer
5. Hong Chau, Kinds of Kindness
Other Possibilities:
6. Jodie Comer, The Bikeriders
7. Maria Bakalova, The Apprentice
8. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Nickel Boys
9. Danielle Deadwyler, The Piano Lesson
10. Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat
11. Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
12. Cailee Spaeny, Civil War
13. Naomi Watts, Emmanuelle
14. Natasha Lyonne, His Three Daughters
15. Margaret Qualley, Kinds of Kindness
Best Supporting Actor
Predicted Nominees:
1. Stanley Tucci, Conclave
2. Clarence Maclin, Sing Sing
3. Brian Tyree Henry, The Fire Inside
4. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
5. Leigh Gill, Blitz
Other Possibilities:
6. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
7. Samuel L. Jackson, The Piano Lesson
8. Drew Starkey, Queer
9. Harris Dickinson, Blitz
10. Adam Pearson, A Different Man
11. John Lithgow, Conclave
12. Forest Whitaker, Megalopolis
13. Paul Raci, Sing Sing
14. Austin Butler, Dune: Part Two
15. Edgar Ramirez, Emilia Perez
As always, keep an eye on the blog for future updates and Oscar Prediction posts focusing in various pictures as they screen!
From Matt Bettinelli-Olpin and Tyler Gillett (the filmmakers known as Radio Silence), Abigail sautés between a crime thriller and vampire tale. It doesn’t completely land that From Dusk til Dawn style jump off and it overstays its welcome. There are lively breaks in the gory repetition and that’s thanks to some quality casting.
The title character is a young girl (played by Alisha Weir) who we first see practicing her ballet moves in an empty theater. She’s being tailed by six criminals engaged in a snatching plot. They succeed in the abduction, at least theoretically. The mastermind behind the taking (Giancarlo Esposito) provides a creepy old house for them to hold Abigail for 24 hours until the ransom is met. The operation has a strict no real names policy (think Reservoir Dogs), so the group is named after Rat Packers. Melissa Barrera is Joey and she’s tasked with being Abigail’s sole point of contact. We quickly figure out she kidnaps with kindness and is our heroine. She also has a drug problem and might’ve abandoned her son, but she’s rather virtuous compared to the lot.
That includes former detective Frank (Dan Stevens, clearly having a ball and looking a bit like Bradley Cooper), spoiled brat and computer hacker Sammy (Kathryn Newton), and demented getaway driver Dean (Angus Cloud). Low IQ muscleman Peter (Kevin Durand) and Marine Rickles (Will Catlett) complete the sextet.
The young captor doesn’t waste much time engaging in mind games with the unwelcome house guests. In what might have been a juicy twist if the trailer and ads hadn’t clearly spelled it out, she’s a bloodsucker who has been around much longer than her appearance suggests. As if that weren’t enough, she has a father whose name sends chills down the spine of those who hear it.
Abigail should be more of a guilty pleasure than it is. There are times when it flourishes. Stevens steals the show while Barrera is saddled with a semi-serious and boring backstory. Some of the exaggerated violence is reminiscent of Radio Silence’s Ready or Not from 2019. That can be a good thing though it’s a reminder that the pic five years ago was superior. Alisha Weir’s performance is certainly a plus as she switches up the cadence of a preteen and a centuries old devourer of souls.
Despite some clever moves, this ultimately stalls in the third act and takes a while to ramp up in the first place. Its bucket of blood falls on the half empty side a little too often.
Critics are leaving their negative marks on Zack Snyder’s Rebel Moon – Part Two: The Scargiver. Out on Netflix today, the sci-fi epic follows up Part One: A Child of Fire. It debuted on the streamer right before Christmas last year. The sequel features returning cast members Sofia Boutella, Djimon Hounsou, Ed Skrein, Michel Huisman, Doona Bae, Ray Fisher, Staz Nair, Fra Fee, Cary Elwes, and Anthony Hopkins.
Reviews for Part One were pretty brutal at 22% on Rotten Tomatoes. Scargiver‘s score is even worse at 16%. Nevertheless Child of Fire did make the shortlist of ten for Visual Effects at the Academy Awards. When final nominations came out, it missed the cut of five.
I’m skeptical that Part Two will even make the shortlist at year’s end. There will a Part Two among the VE contenders. It’ll be of the Dune variety and probably not the Moon. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and Director and they can be perused here:
We now move to the big prize. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded half of the eventual nominees: the winner Oppenheimer in addition to Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Past Lives, and Poor Things. Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Barbie and The Holdovers. I did not identify American Fiction, Anatomy of a Fall, or The Zone of Interest at that early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.
It is a safe assumption that the year’s biggest grosser thus far – Dune: Part Two – has punched its ticket to contention. Everything else, frankly, is guesswork right now. With Cannes coming up, some questions will be answered soon. Followers of the blog, however, know this is a months long process in the BP puzzle. It starts today.
Here’s the first snapshot…
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:
Bird
Blitz
Conclave
Dídi
Dune: Part Two
The End
The Fire Inside
Kinds of Kindness
Queer
Sing Sing
Other Possibilities:
The Apprentice
Civil War
A Different Man
Emilia Perez
Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga
Gladiator 2
Hard Truths
Horizon: Am America Saga – Chapter 2
Joker: Folie à Deux
Megalopolis
The Nickel Boys
Nightbitch
The Piano Lesson
A Real Pain
Wicked
I’ll have my first rankings in the six major categories up in short order!
Luca Guadagnino’s sports love triangle Challengers hopes to serve up winning box office numbers when it opens April 26th. Zendaya, Josh O’Connor, and Mike Faist headline the critically hailed pic that was originally slated for last fall until the actors strike pushed it to spring.
Zendaya is hot off Dune: Part Two and buzz for this follow-up is impressive. The RT score is a sizzling 96%. It will need to make its money off star power as romantic dramas can be a tough sell.
I suspect the worst case scenario is a debut in the low double digits while the rosiest result could be a premiere in the low 20s. My forecast puts it in the mid to high teens.
Challengers opening weekend prediction: $16.2 million
The latest spy action comedy from Guy Ritchie is WWII era set The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare. Out Friday, it finds the filmmaker in familiar genre territory with a cast including Henry Cavill, Eiza González, Alan Ritchson, Henry Golding, Alex Pettyfer, Hero Fiennes Tiffin, Babs Olusanmokun, and Cary Elwes.
Ritchie has been pumping out feature after feature in recent years. His war pic The Covenant drew mostly solid reviews, but zero awards attention in 2023. Warfare is generating some decent notices at 82% on Rotten Tomatoes. That includes some comparisons to Inglourious Basterds though they’re not near as effusive in praise.
This is the director’s 15th picture and only 2009’s Sherlock Holmes received any Oscar noms for Original Score and Art Direction. That stat should remain the same as Warfare isn’t expected to contend anywhere. My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…
Three fresh titles attempt to prevent Civil War from a second weekend atop the charts after a strong premiere. We have vampire flick Abigail, Guy Ritchie’s spy action comedy The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare, and the anime spy action comedy Spy x Family Code: White rolling out. My detailed prediction posts on the trio can be found here:
It could be a genuine photo finish for the top spot. I spy Civil War dropping in the mid 50s as a hefty fall seems likely given the weaker B- Cinemascore grade. That could allow any of the newbies to compete for #1. I’m giving it to Abigail for what would be a so-so start.
Spy x Family Code: White could threaten in the low double digits, but I have it just under $10 million for a third place showing.
As for Warfare, I’m expecting Ritchie’s latest to be a flop despite pretty decent reviews. I have it rounding out the top five behind the fourth frame of Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire.
Here’s how I have the high five shaking out:
1. Abigail
Predicted Gross: $13.1 million
2. Civil War
Predicted Gross: $11.8 million
3. Spy x Family Code: White
Predicted Gross: $9.8 million
4. Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire
Predicted Gross: $8.7 million
5. The Ministry of Ungentlemanly Warfare
Predicted Gross: $7.6 million
Box Office Results (April 12-14)
Alex Garland’s buzzy Civil War opened near the higher end of its anticipated range with $25.7 million, besting my $18 million forecast. That’s a record for A24 whose previous largest beginning was held by 2018’s Hereditary in the low teens.
Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire slipped to second after two weeks in 1st with $15.5 million, on target with my $15.9 million take. The monster mash has amassed $158 million thus far.
Ghostbusters: Frozen Empire was third with $5.7 million (I was right there at $5.6 million) for $96 million in its four weeks of release.
Kung Fu Panda 4 was fourth as it added $5.5 million to its now $173 million haul. I projected $5.1 million.
Dune: Part Two rounded out the top five with $4.3 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The seven week tally is $272 million.
Finally, Monkey Man fell a steep 60% in its sophomore frame to $4 million (I went with $4.9 million) for $17 million overall.
We are over a month removed from the 96th Academy Awards airing so that means it’s time to start speculating on the 97th. These are my initial glimpses at the four acting races, Director, and Picture and they will unfold on the blog over the next few days. I already posted my first takes on the acting derbies and they can be perused here:
We now move to Director. When I did my first picks on the competition in 2023, it yielded the winner with Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer as well as Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Under the 10 other possibilities, I named Yorgos Lanthimos of Poor Things. I did not identify Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) or Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) at the early juncture.
Let’s start with an obvious caveat… it’s early. Some movies listed are likely to be pushed back or simply not turn out as awards contenders.
In 2021, one of the biggest shockers of nomination morning was Denis Villeneuve being left out of Best Director for Dune. I don’t have history repeating itself as the filmmaker makes my initial quintet for the sequel. So does Edward Berger, who was surprisingly snubbed in 2022 for All Quiet on the Western Front.
Here’s the first snapshot…
TODD’S FIRST OSCAR PREDICTION FOR BEST DIRECTOR AT THE 97TH ACADEMY AWARDS:
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