Month: February 2024

Oscars: The Case of Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Director quintet and it starts with Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest. Let’s get to it!

Previous Directing Nominations:

None

The Case for Jonathan Glazer:

The English filmmaker’s fourth feature comes after three acclaimed predecessors: 2001’s Sexy Beast, 2004’s Birth, and 2014’s Under the Skin. The Holocaust drama is the frontrunner for Best International Feature Film and had a solid showing with five nominations. He hopes to follow in the footsteps of other directors in recent years who took the prize along with IFF like Alfonso Cuaròn (Roma) and Bong Joon-ho (Parasite).

The Case Against Jonathan Glazer:

Cuaròn and Joon-ho didn’t have to compete against the juggernaut that is Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer. He is the far and away favorite. Glazer managed a BAFTA mention, but didn’t make the cut for Critics Choice, the Globes, or DGA.

The Verdict:

Barring a massive upset, Nolan towers over all competitors.

My Case Of posts will continue with Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon…

Oscars: The Case of Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Supporting Actor quintet and it starts with Sterling K. Brown in Cord Jefferson’s American Fiction. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Sterling K. Brown:

An Emmy and Globe winner for his small screen work on This Is Us, Brown breaks through with the Academy as Jeffrey Wright’s estranged brother in the BP contender. Fiction performed at the high end of its range on nomination morning with five and the Academy may wish to honor it somewhere. He made the cut at SAG and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Sterling K. Brown:

If voters do honor Fiction somewhere, it’s probably going to be in Adapted Screenplay. Brown did not get in at the Globes or BAFTA. And Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) has swept so far and is rightly seen as the favorite. In fact, in a recent interview, Brown himself said he anticipates RDJ taking the gold.

The Verdict:

This is not going to be a walk to the podium for Brown.

My Case Of posts will continue with Jonathan Glazer’s direction in The Zone of Interest…

Oscar Predictions – Bob Marley: One Love

When Reinaldo Marcus Green’s Bob Marley: One Love, the biopic of the reggae icon was slated for early 2024 (it’s out February 14th), it called into question the viability of its awards prospects. After all, most real contenders aren’t seen in the first quarter unless it’s a Sundance screening. That speculation has been confirmed with the review embargo now lifted.

Kingsley Ben-Adir, who likely came close to a Supporting Actor nod in 2020 for One Night in Miami…, plays the title character with Lashana Lynch as wife Rita. The supporting cast includes James Norton, Tosin Cole, Umi Myers, and Anthony Welsh. Green’s previous pic King Richard gave Will Smith a much discussed Best Actor victory.

Don’t look for the Academy to look too much into Love and that could include Ben-Adir’s performance (though I wouldn’t totally discount the possibility). The Rotten Tomatoes score is a mere 36% and even the positive(ish) reviews use descriptions like serviceable and decent. Despite Marley’s beloved music, I wouldn’t look for Sound to be in play (though it would be the only race where it’s somewhat possible). My Oscar Prediction posts will continue…

76th DGA Awards Winner Predictions

The 76th DGA Awards take place this Saturday and it’s a key indication to which filmmaker will emerge with the Oscar for direction. How much so? 9 out of the previous 10 DGA recipients have taken the Academy’s gold. The only deviation in the last ten years is Sam Mendes (1917) winning DGA while Bong Joon-Ho was victorious on Oscar night.

There is usually a 4 out of 5 match between DGA and Oscar nominees in the big race. 2023 diverted from that. There are just 3 DGA contenders vying for the Academy prize: Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), and Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon). Greta Gerwig (Barbie) and Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) are up for DGA while Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) look for Academy love.

Let’s walk through that contest as well as the ones for Documentaries and First-Time Feature Film with predictions for the winner and a runner-up selection.

Feature Film

Nominees: Greta Gerwig (Barbie), Yorgos Lanthimos (Poor Things), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Martin Scorsese (Killers of the Flower Moon)

Even if Oppenheimer doesn’t win BP at the Oscars (and that seems unlikely right now), Nolan appears to be in the driver’s seat for the Academy statue. If he doesn’t take DGA, it would frankly be a shocker. Don’t count on it.

Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Martin Scorsese, Killers of the Flower Moon

First-Time Feature Film

Nominees: Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), Manuela Martelli (Chile ’76), Noora Niasari (Shayda), A.V. Rockwell (A Thousand and One), Celine Song (Past Lives)

This is clearly a showdown between the makers of the two BP nominees in Jefferson and Song. Fiction actually had a stronger showing than Lives from the Academy – 5 nominations to 2. Yet I think Song gets this by a nose.

Predicted Winner: Celine Song, Past Lives

Runner-Up: Cord Jefferson, American Fiction

Documentaries

Moses Bwayo and Christopher Sharp, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Mstyslav Chernov, 20 Days in Mariupol, Madeleine Gavin, Beyond Utopia, Davis Guggenheim, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, D. Smith, Kokomo City

Even though it wasn’t nominated for Doc Feature at the Academy Awards, Guggenheim’s work in Still could score the hardware (the editing alone could earn it the win). However, I’ll go with Chernov and his likely Oscar frontrunner.

Predicted Winner: Mstyslav Chernov, 20 Days in Mariupol

Runner-Up: Davis Guggenheim, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie

I’ll have reaction up over the weekend!

Bob Marley: One Love Box Office Prediction

Paramount hopes fans of the title character turn out for Bob Marley: One Love when it debuts on February 14th. Kingsley Ben-Adir is the legendary reggae singer with Lashana Lynch as wife Rita. Reinaldo Marcus Green, who last directed King Richard, is behind the camera. James Norton, Tosin Cole, and Anthony Welsh are among the supporting players.

Originally slated for January, the studio opted to push it back to the long holiday weekend encompassing Valentine’s and President’s Day. Reviews are mixed to negative with an RT score of 36% thus far.

Despite the critical reaction, Marley has a devoted fanbase and competition is light save for Madame Web. I believe a four-day take in the high teens to low 20s is doable with high 20s for the six-day tally.

Bob Marley: One Love opening weekend prediction: $19.2 million (Friday to Monday); $28.9 million (Wednesday to Monday)

For my Madame Web prediction, click here:

Madame Web Box Office Prediction

Madame Web Box Office Prediction

Dakota Johnson headlines as the title character in Madame Web, Sony’s fourth feature in their Spider-Man Universe on February 14th. The studio is hoping its grosses are closer to Venom and its sequel than Morbius. S.J. Clarkson directs with a supporting cast including Sydney Sweeney (hot off Anyone but You), Celeste O’Connor, Isabela Merced, and Tahar Rahim.

Ms. Johnson is no stranger to the Valentine’s Day/President’s Day weekend frame considering the Fifty Shades trilogy. Web will attempt to bring in a female contingent, but also a sizable male crowd craving some comic book action.

Debuting on Wednesday, my forecast includes the Friday to Monday long weekend projection along with its two extra days. A best case scenario might be in the $35-40 million neighborhood for the six-day total. I’m skeptical it gets that high. A low to mid 20s start for the four-day and high 20s to low 30s range over the longer haul sounds likelier.

Madame Web opening weekend prediction: $21.5 million (Friday to Monday); $30.7 million (Wednesday to Monday)

For my Bob Marley: One Love prediction, click here:

Bob Marley: One Love Box Office Prediction

Oscars: The Case of Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Supporting Actress quintet and it starts with Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Emily Blunt:

Despite an impressive filmography covering dramas, action/adventure pics, family fare, and horror hits – from Sicario and Edge of Tomorrow to A Quiet Place to Mary Poppins Returns and Jungle Cruise – Blunt has somehow never nabbed an Oscar nod until now for the BP frontrunner. That’s despite her six Golden Globes noms for feature films and four SAG mentions. There could be an overdue vibe occurring and Oppenheimer‘s coattails could be large. As the alcoholic wife of the title character, she’s landed recognition in key precursors like the Globes, SAG, BAFTA, and Critics Choice.

The Case Against Emily Blunt:

The Globes and Critics Choice have gone with Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers and she is certainly the favorite. A SAG or BAFTA victory win may be needed to show any strength. Voters may honor her costars Cillian Murphy and Robert Downey Jr. in their races and that might feel like enough.

The Verdict:

For quite some time, I had Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) as the runner-up to Randolph. I’d say the spot belongs to Blunt now. However, nothing has happened yet to show that Randolph is vulnerable.

My Case Of Posts will continue with Sterling K. Brown in American Fiction…

Oscars: The Case of Bradley Cooper in Maestro

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at the Actor quintet and it starts with Bradley Cooper in Maestro. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

Silver Linings Playbook (2012, Actor); American Hustle (2013, Supporting Actor); American Sniper (2014, Actor); A Star Is Born (2018, Actor)

The Case for Bradley Cooper:

For his portrayal of the legendary EGOT recipient Leonard Bernstein in the Netflix production, Mr. Cooper has been nominated for BAFTA, Critics Choice, SAG, and the Globes. There could also be the feeling that he’s overdue as this marks his fifth acting nod with no hardware to show for it (just like Annette Bening in Nyad per my previous post).

The Case Against Bradley Cooper:

He didn’t win the Globe or Critics Choice as Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) have split the prizes so far. While Maestro had a decent nomination morning, Cooper was not recognized for his direction. That’s what happened in 2018 when he got the Actor mention for Star (he would lose to Rami Malek in Bohemian Rhapsody), but not his behind the camera work. Of all the BP contenders, this has the lowest RT rating and there’s a feeling among some that Cooper is trying too hard in Maestro for the gold.

The Verdict:

Cooper is third behind Murphy and Giamatti. I don’t think his victory is an impossibility. Yet it looks to be a long shot unless he scores an upset at SAG or BAFTA. In other words, the O in EGOT should still be unfulfilled.

My Case Of posts will continue with Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer…

February 9-11 Box Office Predictions

Horror comedy Lisa Frankenstein looks to top the charts in what should be a sleepy box office frame. It’s the only new wide release hitting cineplexes and you can peruse my detailed prediction post on it here:

Lisa Frankenstein Box Office Prediction

While I don’t have Frankenstein even achieving $10 million, my forecast is enough to put it in first position. Let’s be frank – Sunday should especially be a dead zone as many moviegoers will be preoccupied by the Chiefs and 49ers.

Argylle was ushered in as the champ this past frame (more on that below), but it underwhelmed. With a troubling C+ Cinemascore grade, I’m thinking a sophomore plummet in the range of 60% is possible.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had a fruitful runner-up beginning. Yet it appears poised to drop from the high five considering its decline should be massive (probably in the 75-80% arena like its previous episodic releases).

That could leave holdovers The Beekeeper, Wonka, and Migration in their current 3-5 places. This is with a big caveat: Dune is scheduled to be re-released this weekend ahead of the sequel’s March bow and I’m waiting to see a count. I certainly believe it’s feasible that it manages a top 5 showing. Disney is also putting Turning Red back in venues. I’m less convinced it makes the five, but it’s doable. I will edit this post if I put either of them in (probably on Wednesday).

Here’s how I see it playing out:

1. Lisa Frankenstein

Predicted Gross: $6.8 million

2. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

3. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $3.5 million

4. Wonka

Predicted Gross: $3.4 million

5. Migration

Predicted Gross: $3.2 million

Box Office Results (February 2-4)

As mentioned, Matthew Vaughn’s spy action comedy Argylle had a hollow victory at #1 with $17.4 million. That’s a tad under my $18.3 million call and not an impressive gross considering the reported king’s ransom of $200 million that Apple paid for the rights.

The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3 had pleasing viewership with $5.9 million from Friday to Sunday – just ahead of my $5.4 million take. Counting its Thursday start, it has earned $7.3 million.

The Beekeeper was third in weekend #4 with $5.2 million (I went with $4.8 million) for $49 million total.

Wonka was fourth after 8 weeks with $4.6 million. My prediction? $4.6 million! The overall tally is $201 million.

Migration rounded out the top five at $4.1 million and I incorrectly had it on the outside looking in. The animated tale is up to $106 million after 7 weeks.

Mean Girls fell from 1st to 6th after three weeks atop the charts with $3.8 million compared to my $4.3 million projection. It has made $66 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscars: The Case of Annette Bening in Nyad

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at the Actress quintet and it starts with Annette Bening in Nyad. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

The Grifters (1990, Supporting Actress); American Beauty (1999, Actress), Being Julia (2004, Actress), The Kids Are All Right (2010, Actress)

The Case for Annette Bening:

SAG and Globe nominations preceded this, but Bening’s potential ace in the hole could be the overdue factor. While costar Jodie Foster (up for Supporting Actress) is a two-time Oscar recipient, Bening is 0 for 4.

The Case Against Annette Bening:

She’s swimming upstream for the victory with Nyad. The picture itself is not an awards player beyond its two leads. Bening missed the cut at BAFTA and Critics Choice. Emma Stone (Poor Things) vs. Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon) appears to be the showdown for the gold.

The Verdict:

The strong likelihood is Bening will be 0 for 5 come March 10th.

My Case Of posts will continue with our first write-up in Actor. That’s Bradley Cooper in Maestro…