Month: February 2024

77th BAFTA Winner Predictions

Sunday brings the 77th BAFTA Awards as we look for further clues to the pictures and performers who will emerge victorious at the Oscars next month. Oppenheimer leads the pack with 13 nominations (the same number as its Academy haul) with Poor Things in second with 11 (also matching numbers wise with its American counterpart).

For each race, I’m giving you a predicted winner with a runner-up. I’ll have a recap on the blog with my takeaways following the ceremony!

Film

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Director

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Andrew Haigh (All of Us Strangers), Christopher Nolan (Oppenheimer), Alexander Payne (The Holdovers), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall)

Predicted Winner: Christopher Nolan, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Is there one?? Let’s just say Glazer

Actress in a Leading Role

Nominees: Fantasia Barrino (The Color Purple), Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall), Carey Mulligan (Maestro), Vivian Oparah (Rye Lane), Margot Robbie (Barbie), Emma Stone (Poor Things)

Predicted Winner: Emma Stone, Poor Things

Runner-Up: Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall

Actor in a Leading Role

Nominees: Bradley Cooper (Maestro), Colman Domingo (Rustin), Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers), Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer), Teo Yoo (Past Lives)

Predicted Winner: Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Paul Giamatti, The Holdovers

Actress in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Emily Blunt (Oppenheimer), Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple), Claire Foy (All of Us Strangers), Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest), Rosamund Pike (Saltburn), Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers)

Predicted Winner: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, The Holdovers

Runner-Up: Emily Blunt, Oppenheimer

Actor in a Supporting Role

Nominees: Robert De Niro (Killers of the Flower Moon), Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer), Jacob Elordi (Saltburn), Ryan Gosling (Barbie), Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers), Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers)

Predicted Winner: Robert Downey Jr., Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Ryan Gosling, Barbie

Original Screenplay

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Barbie, The Holdovers, Maestro, Past Lives

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

Adapted Screenplay

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, American Fiction, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Oppenheimer

Animated Feature

Nominees: The Boy and the Heron, Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget, Elemental, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Winner: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Runner-Up: The Boy and the Heron

Documentary

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, American Symphony, Beyond Utopia, Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie, Wham!

Predicted Winner: 20 Days in Mariupol

Runner-Up: Beyond Utopia

Film Not in the English Language

Nominees: 20 Days in Mariupol, Anatomy of a Fall, Past Lives, Society of the Snow, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Anatomy of a Fall

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Casting

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, How to Have Sex, Killers of the Flower Moon

Predicted Winner: All of Us Strangers

Runner-Up: The Holdovers

Cinematography

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Costume Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

Editing

Nominees: Anatomy of a Fall, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Make-Up & Hair

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Maestro, Napoleon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Maestro

Runner-Up: Poor Things

Original Score

Nominees: Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, Saltburn, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: Killers of the Flower Moon

Production Design

Nominees: Barbie, Killers of the Flower Moon, Oppenheimer, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: Barbie

Sound

Nominees: Ferrari, Maestro, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Oppenheimer, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Oppenheimer

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Special Visual Effects

Nominees: The Creator, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning, Napoleon, Poor Things

Predicted Winner: Napoleon

Runner-Up: The Creator

Outstanding British Film

Nominees: All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, Napoleon, The Old Oak, Poor Things, Rye Lane, Saltburn, Scrapper, Wonka, The Zone of Interest

Predicted Winner: Poor Things

Runner-Up: The Zone of Interest

Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer

Nominees: Blue Bag Life, Bobi Wine: The People’s President, Earth Mama, How to Have Sex, Is There Anybody Out There?

Predicted Winner: How to Have Sex

Runner-Up: Bobi Wine: The People’s President

Rising Star

Nominees: Phoebe Dynevor, Ayo Edebiri, Jacob Elordi, Mia McKenna-Bruce, Sophia Wilde

Predicted Winner: Jacob Elordi

Runner-Up: Mia McKenna-Bruce

That works out to these numbers of victories for these pictures:

8 Wins

Oppenheimer

5 Wins

Poor Things

2 Wins

Anatomy of a Fall

1 Win

20 Days in Mariupol, All of Us Strangers, How to Have Sex, The Holdovers, Maestro, Napoleon, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira Training Box Office Prediction

Japan’s animated action fantasy franchise hopes to continue cutting into the American box office when Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira premieres on February 23rd. Haruo Sotozaki, who helmed previous entries Mugen Train (2021) and To the Swordsmith Village (2023), returns.

The trilogy of manga offerings is spawned from the anime TV series that ran from 2016-2020. While their profits are larger overseas, domestic grosses have impressed. In April of 2021, Mugen took in $21 million in its opening weekend with just under $50 million for the overall haul. In March of last year, Swordsmith‘s earnings were a cut below. It made $10.1 million out of the gate and the abbreviated run ended at $16.9 million.

I’m forecasting that Hashira will experience similar numbers to Swordsmith. I don’t anticipate a significant drop-off and it could even slightly exceed its predecessor’s start.

Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba – To the Hashira opening weekend prediction: $10.5 million

For my Ordinary Angels prediction, click here:

Ordinary Angels Box Office Prediction

For my Drive-Away Dolls prediction, click here:

Drive-Away Dolls Box Office Prediction

Oscars: The Case of Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the other five big races. Today we arrive at our third performer in Best Actress and that’s Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Sandra Hüller:

The German actress earned raves for her turn in Justine Triet’s Cannes Palme d’Or winning French legal drama which earned five overall nods including Picture. She also added to her impressive 2023 with her role in BP nominated The Zone of Interest (where she probably came up just short in Supporting Actress). The Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA put her in their mix and she’s received a few regional critics prizes.

The Case Against Sandra Hüller:

Hüller has yet to win a key precursor as those have gone to Emma Stone (Poor Things) and Lily Gladstone (Killers of the Flower Moon). She missed SAG. France dropped the ball by selecting The Taste of Things as their International Feature Film contender instead of Anatomy. If they had, it might have taken that race (over The Zone of Interest) and those coattails could’ve helped.

The Verdict:

Stone or Gladstone are the favorites. However, if an upset did occur, Hüller could pull it off and that’s especially true if she wins the BAFTA. I wouldn’t bet on it, but I wouldn’t totally dismiss the possibility.

My Case Of posts will continue with Paul Giamatti in The Holdovers…

Oscars: The Case of Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second filmmaker in Best Director and that’s Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things. Let’s get to it!

Previous Directing Nominations:

The Favourite (2018)

The Case for Yorgos Lanthimos:

From his 2009 Greek psychological drama Dogtooth to the 2015 pitch black satire The Lobster and 2017 medical thriller The Killing of a Sacred Deer, Lanthimos has emerged as one of the most acclaimed directors of the 21st century (with some comparisons to Kubrick). Absurdist costume period piece The Favourite was his awards breakout with 10 nods and an Actress victory for Olivia Colman. His follow-up absurdist costume period piece Poor Things did that one better with 11 and it has its hardcore supporters. He’s picked up DGA, Critics Choice, and Globe mentions.

The Case Against Yorgos Lanthimos:

That all important DGA precursor went to Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer and he also received the Globe and Critics Choice. It looks like it’s simply his year. Lanthimos was also snubbed for BAFTA.

The Verdict:

Actress for Emma Stone and Production Design are Oscar things his film could get. Not this category.

My Case Of posts will continue with Sandra Hüller in Anatomy of a Fall…

Oscars: The Case of Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second performer in Best Supporting Actor and that’s Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

The Godfather Part II (Supporting Actor, 1974, WON); Taxi Driver (Actor, 1976); The Deer Hunter (Actor, 1978); Raging Bull (Actor, 1980, WON); Awakenings (Actor, 1990); Cape Fear (Actor, 1991); Silver Linings Playbook (Supporting Actor, 2012)

The Case for Robert De Niro:

As a crime boss wreaking slow havoc on the Osage nation, De Niro enters his sixth decade in awards contention for his 10th collaboration with Martin Scorsese. He hit the quad of major precursors with nominations at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, and BAFTA. If he were to emerge victorious, he would do so in the same race where he nabbed his first OScar 49 years earlier as Vito Corleone in The Godfather Part II. That’s an admittedly cool storyline.

The Case Against Robert De Niro:

Robert Downey Jr.’s narrative for Oppenheimer is also compelling and he’s the frontrunner as he’s picked up the Globe and Critics Choice already. Killers has shown vulnerability with omissions for costar Leonardo DiCaprio and in Adapted Screenplay.

The Verdict:

Not even a legend as large as De Niro seems able to disrupt Downey Jr.’s momentum. The film’s best chance at an Oscar lies with Lily Gladstone.

My Case Of posts will continue with the direction of Yorgos Lanthimos for Poor Things…

February 16-19 Box Office Predictions

As for the trailer for prequel A Quiet Place: Day One debuted this week, multiplexes themselves were even quieter over the Super Bowl weekend. With the Valentine and President’s Day holiday hitting, studios are hoping business gets louder. We have Spider-Man Universe flick Madame Web starring Dakota Johnson and musical biopic Bob Marley: One Love looking to place 1-2 when they open on February 14th. You can peruse my detailed prediction posts on them here:

Madame Web Box Office Prediction
Bob Marley: One Love Box Office Prediction

The top 3 should all be newbies with faith-based The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 4-6 beginning on Thursday. On the day before, Madame Web hopes to break a recent run of so-so starts for comic book adaptations. That could be a tall order. I have it opening in the low 20s over the 4-day with low30s when counting the six-day output.

Marley might be close behind with low 20s from Friday to Monday and high 20s when counting Wednesday and Thursday. If it manages to over perform (which could be tricky considering the lackluster reviews), it might contend for the top spot if Web doesn’t match its fairly meager expectations.

Episodes 1-3 of The Chosen‘s fourth season made nearly $6 million from Friday to Sunday in the first weekend of February. Grosses could be about the same even with the extra day thrown in.

Holdovers Argylle and The Beekeeper are likely to populate the remainder of the high five with last weekend’s newcomer Lisa Frankenstein dropping out altogether (more on that below).

Here’s how I think it’ll look and keep in mind that these projections are for Friday thru Monday:

1. Madame Web

Predicted Gross: $21.5 million (Friday to Monday estimate); $30.7 million (Wednesday to Monday estimate)

2. Bob Marley: One Love

Predicted Gross: $19.2 million (Friday to Monday estimate); $28.9 million (Wednesday to Monday estimate)

3. The Chosen Season 4: Episodes 1-3

Predicted Gross: $6.1 million

4. Argylle

Predicted Gross: $4.5 million

5. The Beekeeper

Predicted Gross: $2.6 million

Box Office Results (February 9-11)

It was the weakest frame since early December 2022 as spy action comedy Argylle plummeted 64% and still managed to stay #1. It made $6.2 million and was right on target with my $6.1 million prediction. The subpar two-week take is $28 million.

Horror comedy Lisa Frankenstein was the only newcomer and it was DOA in second with a putrid $3.6 million. That’s well below my $6.8 million forecast and it should experience a hefty decline in subsequent frames.

The Beekeeper was third at $3.3 million (I said $3.5 million) as Jason Statham’s steady grosser hit $54 million after five weeks.

Holiday holdover Wonka was fourth with $3 million, a shade under my $3.4 million projection. The total is $205 million in its ninth go-round.

Finally, animated Migration rounded out the top five in weekend #8 with $2.9 million compared to my $3.2 million guesstimate. It’s up to $110 million.

And that does it for now, folks! Until next time…

Oscars: The Case of Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second performer in Best Supporting Actress and that’s Danielle Brooks in Blitz Bazawule’s The Color Purple. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Danielle Brooks:

The role of Sofia in other Color Purple iterations earned Oprah Winfrey an Oscar nomination nearly four decades ago and nabbed Brooks a Tony nod when she played it on Broadway almost a decade back. Her showy role was expected to generate awards attention and she got in at the four highest profiles precursors (Globes, Critics Choice, SAG, BAFTA).

The Case Against Danielle Brooks:

The Orange is the New Black cast member lost the Globe and Critics Choice to Da’Vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers. Furthermore, Purple has not been the Academy player that Warner Bros. hoped for. Brooks marks the picture’s sole nomination.

The Verdict:

Before Purple underperformed on the circuit, Brooks sat atop the projections of most prognosticators (include this one). She’s second or third now – definitely behind Randolph and probably Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer.

My Case Of posts will continue with Robert De Niro in Killers of the Flower Moon…

Oscars: The Case of Colman Domingo in Rustin

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second performer in Best Actor and that’s Colman Domingo as Rustin. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Colman Domingo:

As the principal organizer of the March for Freedom Rally, Domingo’s turn as Bayard Rustin in George C. Wolfe’s Netflix biopic was identified early on as Academy bait. He’s been nominated in all the key precursors: Globes, SAG, Critics Choice, and BAFTA. It’s been a year of significant exposure with this, his supporting turn in The Color Purple, and the lead in Sing Sing (which premiered at Toronto and could garner awards attention for him next year).

The Case Against Colman Domingo:

The film itself did not become a contender in other categories. Domingo’s nod marks its sole nomination and he’s the only hopeful in Actor from a movie not up for BP. Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Cillian Murphy (Oppenheimer) have emerged in the forerunning contests.

The Verdict:

Given the fact that Rustin never really approached BP vying status, it’s impressive that Domingo checked off all the major ceremonies (leaving Leonardo DiCaprio in Killers of the Flower Moon on the outside looking in). Don’t expect a rally of support for a major upset win.

My Case Of posts will continue with Danielle Brooks in The Color Purple…

76th DGA Awards Recap

How reliable is the Director Guild top prize when it comes to correlating with the Oscar winner? In the previous 75 ceremonies, the DGA victor has matched the Academy’s 67 times. The most recent example of a diversion is 2o19 when Sam Mendes (1917) took DGA while Bong Joon-ho was your Oscar recipient.

Despite that fairly fresh example, the thinking going into last night’s show was that Christopher Nolan could effectively sow up his Oscar if he got the DGA. He did. The fifth time was the charm for the Oppenheimer maker as he had previously been nominated for Memento, The Dark Knight, Inception, and Dunkirk without a trophy to show for it. The Academy has been less generous as he’s in contention for only the second time (his other nom there was with Dunkirk). With victories now at DGA, Critics Choice, and the Globes (with BAFTA seemingly next) – Nolan appears well on his way to Oscar glory.

I went 3 for 3 on my picks covering feature films. Celine Song (Past Lives) made the podium trip for First-Time Feature Film. There was slightly more intrigue in that contest as Cord Jefferson (American Fiction) provide some competition. While Fiction had a better showing in terms of mentions at the Oscars (5 noms to 2 for Past Lives), Song seemed more probable for this race and that went according to script.

20 Days in Mariupol appears to be the frontrunner for Documentary Feature at the big show. Its maker Mstyslav Chernov is the winner at DGA for Documentaries. It’s worth noting that, unlike Feature Film, there isn’t a strong correlation between DGA/Oscar recipients for Documentary Feature. The last match (ironically) is 2019 with Steven Bognar and Julia Reichert for American Factory. This stands an excellent shot at being the next one.

We are now less than a month away from the Oscars. Keep checking out the blog for all the coverage!

Oscars: The Case of Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon

As we do every year on this here blog, Oscar nominations lead to my Case Of series. What are they? Glad you asked. These are 35 posts covering the nominees for Picture, Director, and the four acting contests. For each one, I give you the case for the movie/director/actor winning and the case against it with a verdict tidying it up. It’s like a trial, but no one goes to prison.

It began with the ten BP contenders and now it alternates alphabetically between the hopefuls in the five other big races. Today we arrive at our second performer in Best Actress and that’s Lily Gladstone in Killers of the Flower Moon. Let’s get to it!

Previous Oscar Acting Nominations:

None

The Case for Lily Gladstone:

After critically appreciated roles in Kelly Reichardt’s Certain Women and First Cow, Gladstone has been in the awards conversation since Martin Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon was announced. Her work as Mollie Kyle in the historical epic won her the Golden Globe for Actress in Drama and the National Board of Review prize. That’s in addition to nominations at Critics Choice and SAG. Gladstone could make history as the first Native-American thespian to emerge victorious in the category.

The Case Against Lily Gladstone:

Any possibility of a sweep ended when Emma Stone took Critics Choice for Poor Things. Then there’s the shocking BAFTA omission. Gladstone did not make the cut for that show. Since 2010, only one Best Actress Oscar winner (Jessica Chastain for 2021’s The Eyes of Tammy Faye) has missed BAFTA. Killers also underperformed a bit with misses in Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio) and Adapted Screenplay.

The Verdict:

SAG on February 24th could offer a gigantic clue as to whether Gladstone or Stone are the soft frontrunner. That BAFTA snub sticks out. That said, Gladstone is a real contender.

My Case Of posts will continue with Colman Domingo in Rustin…